US politics: Georgia on my mind

[Fez]

So I'm going to skip all the false flag debate nonsense and go back to the conversation about early voting...

My advice, ignore (nearly) all of it. It was optimistic early voting data that reinforced the narrative Clinton had the election in the bag, but the problem is that in almost all cases there's no way of knowing if early voting is representative of election day voting. There's also no easy way to know if higher/lower early voting numbers indicate changes in overall turnout or just changes in trends of when people decide to vote. Furthermore, there are races where Democrats only have a chance in the first place (like Tennessee) if they are getting significant cross-over support from Republicans, so just knowing how many Republicans voted doesn't tell us anything about whether that cross-over support is occurring.

Basically the only exception is Nevada, which is at the nexus of: 1) being a state where the vast majority of votes will be early votes, 2) being a state where Republicans and Democrats are very inelastic, and 3) have a super in-state expert (Jon Ralston) who seriously knows his stuff. And even there, the most that can be said is that its looking like an extremely close race and any poll showing a big lead for either side is almost certainly wrong (also, supposedly both sides' internal polling has Rosen up, in contrast to the public polling showing Heller generally up; but Nevada is one of the hardest states to poll, so that doesn't mean much).

[Martell Spy]

1 hour ago, Darth Richard II said:

Well of course it's a troll, doesn't make it not funny!

It was just one of my many false flag operations.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Guy Kilmore said:

If people are curious, here is the investigative report that the DNC did of the Keith Ellison stuff.

 

ETA:  I found it interesting, being a Minnesotan as this impacts my decision on this particular vote.

The really bizarre thing is the claim that there;s a video, yet the accuser refused to show it to anyone. Who knows if the allegations are true or not, but they certainly are hurting Keith and other candidates in tight races. Some of these attack ads are flat out disgusting. 

[Mexal]

38 minutes ago, Fez said:

So I'm going to skip all the false flag debate nonsense and go back to the conversation about early voting...

My advice, ignore (nearly) all of it. It was optimistic early voting data that reinforced the narrative Clinton had the election in the bag, but the problem is that in almost all cases there's no way of knowing if early voting is representative of election day voting. There's also no easy way to know if higher/lower early voting numbers indicate changes in overall turnout or just changes in trends of when people decide to vote. Furthermore, there are races where Democrats only have a chance in the first place (like Tennessee) if they are getting significant cross-over support from Republicans, so just knowing how many Republicans voted doesn't tell us anything about whether that cross-over support is occurring.

Basically the only exception is Nevada, which is at the nexus of: 1) being a state where the vast majority of votes will be early votes, 2) being a state where Republicans and Democrats are very inelastic, and 3) have a super in-state expert (Jon Ralston) who seriously knows his stuff. And even there, the most that can be said is that its looking like an extremely close race and any poll showing a big lead for either side is almost certainly wrong (also, supposedly both sides' internal polling has Rosen up, in contrast to the public polling showing Heller generally up; but Nevada is one of the hardest states to poll, so that doesn't mean much).

Glad you mentioned Nevada because Ralston is the fucking man. I've been following his early vote blog and he has that state on lock. 

[Guy Kilmore]

7 minutes ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

The really bizarre thing is the claim that there;s a video, yet the accuser refused to show it to anyone. Who knows if the allegations are true or not, but they certainly are hurting Keith and other candidates in tight races. Some of these attack ads are flat out disgusting. 

I know, this situation really leaves me thinking hard about what I'm going to do.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, S John said:

Yea, I have voted early in Texas several times now and there's always a lot of people there and I always think.... hey maybe (D) has a chance this time!  Suffice to say, I don't put much stock into this anymore.  I voted for Beto.  I'm pretty sure 90% of the people around me at the polling place were there to vote for Beto.  Beto still (probably) gonna lose on the 6th.  

On first reading that looks like you are admitting to electoral fraud. Vote early and vote often, as they say.

[Darth Richard II]

1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

It was just one of my many false flag operations.

*slow clap*

[Larry of the Lawn]

So if the bombs were part of a false flag, we're assuming that the perpetrator was still ok with all the targets potentially being killed?  Sounds real fucking plausible.  

[ThinkerX]

What the heck.  USPS contractor here.  'Anonymous Mail' - something we get lectured about every couple of months or when 'something happens.'  Used to be, if you wanted to mail a parcel in the US, you could just slap a bunch of stamps on it and away it goes.  Not anymore.  These days, parcels weighing more than 13 ounces *must* have either a recognized USPS tracking number or have been run through a postage meter.  Anything over that weight limit (which we are apparently supposed to know by magic or some such out in the field) is called 'Anonymous Mail.'  We end up with something in that category, and things get serious - as in Homeland Security getting involved.  Anymore, carriers and clerks take this real serious because the at work fallout is a pain.

 

I didn't see any scan codes on the pictures of the bomb packages - just stamps.  This tells me that these mail bombs were either very lightweight or did not pass through the mail at all. 

 

Also, despite lacking the tracking codes, these parcels can still be tracked if they were mailed.  By now, beyond doubt, the investigators know where these devices were mailed from (what post office they passed through first). 

 

That said, my first thought as to the culprit was an older white guy wearing a MAGA hat with enough firearms in his basement to outfit an infantry platoon.  Then the thought crossed my mind: Team Trump has quite the collection of unsavory members, and apparently 'security clearance issues' to go with them.  Suppose the investigation zeroes in on one of these - fourth sleaze-ball to the left in the Team Trump pics?  What then?

 

 

 

 

[Quijote Light]

Does anyone else think it is possible that the bombs were not a right wing nut or a false flag operation, but something carried out by the Russians? I think the nut is the likeliest scenario and the false flag idea is laughable, but I do think that a Russian attempt to exacerbate the division in this country is something to consider. 

[Frog Eater]

21 minutes ago, Quijote Light said:

Does anyone else think it is possible that the bombs were not a right wing nut or a false flag operation, but something carried out by the Russians? I think the nut is the likeliest scenario and the false flag idea is laughable, but I do think that a Russian attempt to exacerbate the division in this country is something to consider. 

Vegas thinks its a Democrat. They dont think its so laughable. Me? I can see it as a crazy leftist, and I can see it as a crazy right winger. a 50/50 chance. 

 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

If people are curious, here is the investigative report that the DNC did of the Keith Ellison stuff.

 

ETA:  I found it interesting, being a Minnesotan as this impacts my decision on this particular vote.

Reading the actual report makes her allegations seem even less likely to be true than I previously thought.

[Martell Spy]

35 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

Vegas thinks its a Democrat. They dont think its so laughable. Me? I can see it as a crazy leftist, and I can see it as a crazy right winger. a 50/50 chance. 

 

So 50 percent chance someone on the left made an attempt to murder Obama.

Really off the meds aren't you old man?

 

[Frog Eater]

1 minute ago, Martell Spy said:

So 50 percent chance someone on the left made an attempt to murder Obama.

Really off the meds aren't you old man?

 

I read somewhere yesterday that the button battery in the timer could never have detonated the "bomb". There were other problems as well, notably, the PVC instead of metal construction, and other construction problems (caps stuck on vs. screwed on, etc) . I went looking for it earlier, but couldnt find it again. I dont know much about pipe bombs, and have no personal knowledge about how much electrical current it takes to detonate a blasting cap. I also dont know what explosive powder or other substance was contained inside the bomb or how dangerous it was/is. 

The FBI will find the person who mailed these "bombs" within 2 more days. 

If a left winger did it to frame crazy right wingers in a bad light, that will be  a bad thing

if a right winger did it to scare vocal Democrats who dont like Donald Trump, that is a bad thing as well

The FBI will find this guy, and fast. I gave it 3 days from the first web posting of the multiple "bomb" packages. 2 days left,.

[ThinkerX]

3 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

I read somewhere yesterday that the button battery in the timer could never have detonated the "bomb". There were other problems as well, notably, the PVC instead of metal construction, and other construction problems (caps stuck on vs. screwed on, etc) . I went looking for it earlier, but couldnt find it again. I dont know much about pipe bombs, and have no personal knowledge about how much electrical current it takes to detonate a blasting cap. I also dont know what explosive powder or other substance was contained inside the bomb or how dangerous it was/is. 

The FBI will find the person who mailed these "bombs" within 2 more days. 

If a left winger did it to frame crazy right wingers in a bad light, that will be  a bad thing

if a right winger did it to scare vocal Democrats who dont like Donald Trump, that is a bad thing as well

The FBI will find this guy, and fast. I gave it 3 days from the first web posting of the multiple "bomb" packages. 2 days left,.

Find credible sources.

 

I made my contribution (anonymous mail) to this discussion based on what I have to know as part of my job. 

 

That said, the 'false flag' theory has no credibility whatsoever. 

[JGP]

59 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

Vegas thinks its a Democrat. They dont think its so laughable. Me? I can see it as a crazy leftist, and I can see it as a crazy right winger. a 50/50 chance. 

 

I got money on wacked out wee incel fucker. Goona be riiiiiiiiich. 

[The Anti-Targ]

7 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

So 50 percent chance someone on the left made an attempt to murder Obama.

Really off the meds aren't you old man?

 

I mean there are people on the left who see not as big of a distinction between Obama/Clinton and Trump as most people. If you are an actual socialist then Obama and Clinton are as big a military-industrial stooge, perpetuaters of the capitalist status quo as anyone in the Trump administration. The Democratic party as a whole has been unironically called Republican lite by several people over the years.

Could those extreme leftist think that blowing up Obama, Clinton and others of the "faux left" be a good idea and that the timing of it be right to do it now? I dunno, I'm not an extreme lefty and I don't think political assassinations are a valid tool. So I don't spend too much time thinking about when would be the best time to take out a few prominent politicians and ex-politicians.

I'm going to propose a double false flag situation. It's a right winger, who isn't interested in killing anyone, who wants to set up a situation that can be made to look like a left-wing false flag (almost real bombs that are deliberately badly made so they are not real danger at all) to create blowback against the left and thus benefit the right. So it's a right wing person / group trying to frame the left by making it look like the left is trying to frame the right.

[Darth Richard II]

I'm not saying it was Aliens...

[The Anti-Targ]

4 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I got money on wacked out wee incel fucker. Goona be riiiiiiiiich. 

Wait, are you betting on someone who serially fucks small incels, which is such a mean thing to do as that means incels are being robbed of their core identity, but certainly a whacked out thing to do? Or are you betting on an incel?

I hope you were very clear when you made the bet, because Vegas will use any excuse to claim the bet you thought you made was not the bet you actually made, and thus refuse the payout.

[JGP]

You know what Jack Burton says at a time like this...