Martell Spy Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Quote Restore Voting Rights for Felons Voting rights would be restored for most convicted felons upon completion of their sentences, including prison terms, parole and probation. Those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense would not be eligible. Answer Votes Pct. Yes 4,339,034 64.1% No 2,430,350 35.9 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-florida-elections.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 On the 538 live forecast, from Silver: Quote Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Paxter said: On the 538 live forecast, from Silver: Granted, I'd always love to pile on Silver, but that's really easy to correct for. You're trying to take it mainstream and don't check that? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Cruz is looking like he may be in real trouble? Beto on 52% with 49% counted. Haven't seen a comment on which areas report later in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Texas is too big for me to be sure. But these are encouraging numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Martell Spy said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-florida-elections.html I don't understand the murderer or sex offender bit. Why should they not have their voting rights restored? Seems like a maximum of 1 House seat in Florida might flip. Was that the expected outcome for FL? CNN map suggests there were a few key races so optimistic Democrats might have hoped to pick up 2-4 seats in FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 ABC has called Indiana for Braun. That's a rough loss. And NBC has called KY-6 for Barr, that's another rough loss. The first toss-up rather than Lean-R to go off the board. On plus side, some of the other House races are looking a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 It's clear that whatever the result, the chances of a big blue wave are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: It's clear that whatever the result, the chances of a big blue wave are unlikely. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illrede Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: It's clear that whatever the result, the chances of a big blue wave are unlikely. Flipping the House, by whatever margin, is indistinguishable from a landslide in most respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Correction. 1 seat for sure in FL 27 (CNN has projected a flip, but the map showed no incumbent so I had no idea if it was R or D before). And possibly a second flip in FL26. It must be close to making a call since it's at 89% reporting. Must be some purple or red polling places yet to report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, illrede said: Flipping the House, by whatever margin, is indistinguishable from a landslide in most respects. Indeed, Call it what you like, but the House map is horrible for Democrats. If they can take the House (which to me at the moment it looks like they will narrowly), then that's definitely an achievement. Democrats lost narrowly in KY-6, but they're leading narrowly with ~90% counted in FL-26 and VA-2, both of which were toss ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, illrede said: Flipping the House, by whatever margin, is indistinguishable from a landslide in most respects. The chances of that is now not particularly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, illrede said: Flipping the House, by whatever margin, is indistinguishable from a landslide in most respects. This. Flipping the House still is a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Also, my prediction on why polls are off: combination of hacking shenanigans in key districts and polls once again fucking up how many uneducated white voters turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I must say we know a lot less about the house at 9pm than I expected. It's going to be close, but the signs I'm seeing are a narrow win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Kalbear said: It's clear that whatever the result, the chances of a big blue wave are unlikely. Certainly seems like no broad wave, clearly polarization is too high and most Republicans are too far gone. A more suburban wave, which would be plenty for the House, is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Chances of Ojeda winning his race in WV not looking flash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 NBC has called West Virginia for Manchin. Gotta respect how well he threads the needle as a Democrat in deep Trump country. However, NBC has also immediately called Tennessee for Blackburn. That's not good, though I've long thought that race was a real long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Senate looks pretty close to cooked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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