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US Politics: Four Days and Counting


Fragile Bird

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Restore Voting Rights for Felons
Voting rights would be restored for most convicted felons upon completion of their sentences, including prison terms, parole and probation. Those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense would not be eligible.

Answer    Votes    Pct.
Yes
4,339,034    64.1%
No
2,430,350    35.9

 


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-florida-elections.html

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On the 538 live forecast, from Silver:

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Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.

 

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1 minute ago, Paxter said:

On the 538 live forecast, from Silver:

Granted, I'd always love to pile on Silver, but that's really easy to correct for.  You're trying to take it mainstream and don't check that?  Yikes.

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1 minute ago, Martell Spy said:

I don't understand the murderer or sex offender bit. Why should they not have their voting rights restored? 

Seems like a maximum of 1 House seat in Florida might flip. Was that the expected outcome for FL? CNN map suggests there were a few key races so optimistic Democrats might have hoped to pick up 2-4 seats in FL?

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ABC has called Indiana for Braun. That's a rough loss.

And NBC has called KY-6 for Barr, that's another rough loss. The first toss-up rather than Lean-R to go off the board.

On plus side, some of the other House races are looking a bit better.

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Correction. 1 seat for sure in FL 27 (CNN has projected a flip, but the map showed no incumbent so I had no idea if it was R or D before). And possibly a second flip in FL26. It must be close to making a call since it's at 89% reporting. Must be some purple or red polling places yet to report.

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2 minutes ago, illrede said:

Flipping the House, by whatever margin, is indistinguishable from a landslide in most respects.

Indeed,  Call it what you like, but the House map is horrible for Democrats.  If they can take the House (which to me at the moment it looks like they will narrowly), then that's definitely an achievement.  

Democrats lost narrowly in KY-6, but they're leading narrowly with ~90% counted in FL-26 and VA-2, both of which were toss ups.

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9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's clear that whatever the result, the chances of a big blue wave are unlikely. 

Certainly seems like no broad wave, clearly polarization is too high and most Republicans are too far gone.

A more suburban wave, which would be plenty for the House, is still possible.

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NBC has called West Virginia for Manchin. Gotta respect how well he threads the needle as a Democrat in deep Trump country.

However, NBC has also immediately called Tennessee for Blackburn. That's not good, though I've long thought that race was a real long shot.

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