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US Politics: A Feast for Crows

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Other thread is about to hit 22 pages.  Thought this was a decent post-Thanksgiving title.

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Migrants from the caravan in Tijuana / San Ysidro rushed the station at the border and had tear gas fired at them.  Seems like a very intense situation now given the authorization to use deadly force thing from Trump / Kelly a few days ago.  Stay tuned.

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Maybe demographics = destiny after all?

 

One of the things that really eats at me about the rise of Trump is how much it feels like his success in the GOP primaries was based on fighting a battle that was already lost.  And maybe this is why the GOP autopsy of 2012 concluded that they needed to do better with minorities.  If you're the party leadership you probably want a solution that's lasting.  So they might have analyzed whether a max-out-the-whites strategy could win the next election, and perhaps it could, narrowly, but what's the point if it hurts you even more in the long run?  

But Trump surely cares not one wit for the party in the long run and cares of course only about Trump.  

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I don't know how much calculation went into it. They went with the strategy because the people pushing it could destroy them in primary elections, and had a track record for doing so (same goes for conservative media). Worse, they could make it impossible for conservative politicians in Congress to hop on the conservative gravy train after their congressional careers. 

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7 hours ago, Triskele said:

This is what I keep telling you. Trump may get a second term if the Dems pick another bad candidate like Hillary, but after that, the demographic changes alone will ensure a Dem win. The GOP has only a few years left unless they can win over a significant portion of the minority votes, but I don't see that happening.

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12 hours ago, Triskele said:

Migrants from the caravan in Tijuana / San Ysidro rushed the station at the border and had tear gas fired at them.  Seems like a very intense situation now given the authorization to use deadly force thing from Trump / Kelly a few days ago.  Stay tuned.

Asylum seekers are going to be murdered soon at this rate.  And I'm sure verdicts like this one will only encourage more violent responses instead of de-escalation.

This is all so unnecessary and fucked up.

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Sorry for double post, but this is just so fucked up.  And has been and continues to be and I can only imagine it's going to get much worse before it gets better.  Trump and Miller and company are comitting crimes against humanity every day and going out of their way to do so.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/chaos-behind-donald-trump-immigration-family-separation-policy-at-southern-border-60-minutes/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=60147337&__twitter_impression=true

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This Hyde-Smith character is shockingly open about her love for the Confederacy. I wonder at what point in time will that be a negative for a candidate in Mississippi. You would think 150 years after those traitors got put down would be enough…..

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18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This Hyde-Smith character is shockingly open about her love for the Confederacy. I wonder at what point in time will that be a negative for a candidate in Mississippi. You would think 150 years after those traitors got put down would be enough…..

Everybody loves a loser......

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The permanent jobs apocalypse the world will be enduring for the next sixty years is beginning.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-general-motors-restructuring-20181126-story.html

why is this one different? because it’s mostly white collar workers whose jobs are being murdered by autonomous cars. Only a couple thousand actual factory workers are being cut at this point.

as the white collar jobs apocalypse continues over the next couple decade, inequality is going to get so so much worse.

Edited by lokisnow

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2 hours ago, lokisnow said:

The permanent jobs apocalypse the world will be enduring for the next sixty years is beginning.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-general-motors-restructuring-20181126-story.html

why is this one different? because it’s mostly white collar workers whose jobs are being murdered by autonomous cars. Only a couple thousand actual factory workers are being cut at this point.

as the white collar jobs apocalypse continues over the next couple decade, inequality is going to get so so much worse.

Then again, in this era of increasing fuel costs and barely above minimum wages for huge numbers of folks, who can afford to buy a new vehicle?  We seem to be getting into a vicious downward spiral.   Factor in climate change and it becomes a nightmare.

 

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43 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Then again, in this era of increasing fuel costs and barely above minimum wages for huge numbers of folks, who can afford to buy a new vehicle?  We seem to be getting into a vicious downward spiral.   Factor in climate change and it becomes a nightmare.

Electric cars might help with that. They're expensive today because they don't fully benefit from economies of scale and because battery technology is still maturing, but they are significantly simpler than cars with an internal combustion engine and with those two issues out of the way, they should be cheaper. And it's not just Tesla working on them anymore -- all of the large car companies have plans for electric cars on the timescale of a few years.

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4 hours ago, lokisnow said:

The permanent jobs apocalypse the world will be enduring for the next sixty years is beginning.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-general-motors-restructuring-20181126-story.html

why is this one different? because it’s mostly white collar workers whose jobs are being murdered by autonomous cars. Only a couple thousand actual factory workers are being cut at this point.

as the white collar jobs apocalypse continues over the next couple decade, inequality is going to get so so much worse.

They said the same when cars were invented. What we'll need now is skilled people to build and maintain them. 

The only reason I haven't bought an electric car is the price and lack of charging stations. On the other hand, it's becoming prohibitively expensive to buy a new car. I was going to buy a new car last year and got a much better deal on a lease. That has its downsides, however.

I have a 2017 Chevy Cruze and they're going to stop making them. I don't want a gas guzzling SUV because my kids are grown and I don't need one. I'm not happy about this at all. 

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1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

Then again, in this era of increasing fuel costs and barely above minimum wages for huge numbers of folks, who can afford to buy a new vehicle?  We seem to be getting into a vicious downward spiral.   Factor in climate change and it becomes a nightmare.

 

And on that note, President large brain has weighted in:

Quote

Asked outside the White House about the findings that unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy, he said: "I don't believe it."

The report found that climate change will cost the US hundreds of billions of dollars annually and damage health.

The Trump administration has pursued a pro-fossil fuels agenda.

The world's leading scientists agree that climate change is human-induced and warn that natural fluctuations in temperature are being exacerbated by human activity.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46351940

We're boned. Drink up and smoke if you got 'em. 

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50 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

We're boned.

I doubt it. A specific politician can have a limited, short-term impact on the adoption of energy from sources other than fossil fuels, but in general it is governed by the available technology. Electric cars supplanting their internal combustion counterparts is a good first step and it's almost certain to happen now. Replacing electricity generation will take longer, but as long as the cost of renewable technology keeps falling while the cost of fossil fuels stays the same or increases, it's only a matter of time.

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I really don't know why I'm responding like you're sincere but perhaps you missed the fact that we needed to kick start the changes yesterday, and even a little delay caused by a prominent politician will have huge consequences. And Trump can delay it by more than just a little, you make it sound like all politicians are the same and a backbencher in a Westminster parliament does not have the same influence as the POTUS.

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3 hours ago, Altherion said:

Electric cars might help with that. They're expensive today because they don't fully benefit from economies of scale and because battery technology is still maturing, but they are significantly simpler than cars with an internal combustion engine and with those two issues out of the way, they should be cheaper. And it's not just Tesla working on them anymore -- all of the large car companies have plans for electric cars on the timescale of a few years.

Get right down to it, an internal combustion powered vehicle is an astonishingly complex piece of machinery - and there are a great many things that can and do go wrong with them - fuel pumps, water pumps, injectors, timing, all that and more.  Indeed, a substantial chunk of the economy - jobs and sales of parts - is based on fixing these machines. 

 

Yes, electric cars are much simpler.  Basically battery, motor, interface.  Batteries and motors will need replacing from time to time, but the part list is a lot shorter.  Mechanically, you'd still have things like brakes and tie rods and maybe transmissions to contend with - but nowhere near the hassle you have with internal combustion rigs.  Fewer parts, fewer jobs.

 

Also, less money for road repairs and what not, as part of the cost of each gallon of gas you put into an internal combustion rig is a tax for that purpose (well, theoretically, anyhow).  Different story with electrics: no gas, no gas tax for road repair.  Might make for some extremely steep registration fees.

 

That said...doing my job means keeping a collection of aging, cantankerous vehicles on the road.  They make frequent trips to the shop.  Past few years in particular, I and the people who work on these vehicles have noticed something: 'source-less parts' of extremely poor quality.  Used to be, you'd get a part - new parts, mind you, not rebuilt ones - there'd be stickers and tags telling you where it was manufactured and a bit more.  The source-less parts don't have those tags, or the ones they do have are...suspect.  (Some of them pretend to be 'made in China' apparently because Chinese parts are 'quality.' )  Folks I run into at the shops and stores have started making it a point to try to backtrack parts, so they don't have to contend with the source-less junk.  I hear rumors (nothing more) that these efforts are frowned upon big time by those further up the chain. 

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Cox (D) pulls ahead of Valadoa (R, incumbent) in California's 21st House District. This is the last House race still undecided, it was called for Valadoa by all the major networks on election night when he finished the night with a 5k vote lead.  But those mail in ballots have been bad and worse for him, and his lead has melted away.  There's still ballots to count, including in Republican areas, so this isn't over yet, but Cox has been gaining ground very reliably on the mail in ballots.  Looks like Valadoa is toast, and with it the Democrats picked up 40 seats.  That would mean that (barring special elections), the Democrats will have a 17 seat cushion to maintain control of the House after 2020.  Which isn't a lot, historically, but it's a lot better than nothing.  

Edited by Maithanet

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1 hour ago, karaddin said:

I really don't know why I'm responding like you're sincere but perhaps you missed the fact that we needed to kick start the changes yesterday, and even a little delay caused by a prominent politician will have huge consequences. And Trump can delay it by more than just a little, you make it sound like all politicians are the same and a backbencher in a Westminster parliament does not have the same influence as the POTUS.

The changes were kick-started yesterday (or, less metaphorically, in 2003). And while there exist politicians who have the kind of influence you are thinking of (e.g. the President of China), the POTUS is, perhaps paradoxically, not one of them because the individual states are quite powerful and will often do something simply because the President is against it. For example, on environmental matters, California (and, to a lesser extent, New York) can and will implement regulations as a direct response to federal policy and they're big enough that corporations which sell physical objects often find it less expensive to adhere to these nationwide rather than make multiple versions. The federal government and the states also sue each other on the contentious issues. Thus, the POTUS is mostly limited to symbolic gestures and cluttering up the courts.

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

Also, less money for road repairs and what not, as part of the cost of each gallon of gas you put into an internal combustion rig is a tax for that purpose (well, theoretically, anyhow).  Different story with electrics: no gas, no gas tax for road repair.  Might make for some extremely steep registration fees.

This is a temporary loophole in the tax code. Once electric cars become mainstream, I'm sure the taxes will be changed to cover them either via a tax on charging them or simply on the number of miles driven.

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