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DMC

U.S. Politics: Phantom of the Emergency

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2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Its just one poll from CBS/YouGov that has 47/30/3/20 for Trump, Dem Congress, Rep Congress and "all equally" as the 4 options. 

Clearly, all the blame towards the right is being directed at Trump.  That's a good thing, not a bad thing.

3 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Anyone post about 277 page Judge Furman ruling that said adding the citizenship question to the 2020 census was illegal? If not, that's a pretty big win.

Saw it, didn't post.  Don't like how he directly challenged Gorsuch in his opinion.  Historically not a good strategy for a lower-court judge.

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10 minutes ago, DMC said:

Clearly, all the blame towards the right is being directed at Trump.  That's a good thing, not a bad thing.

Saw it, didn't post.  Don't like how he directly challenged Gorsuch in his opinion.  Historically not a good strategy for a lower-court judge.

We will see. If they do overrule it, they're massively hypocritical given they constantly say that statues should be followed.

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6 minutes ago, Mexal said:

We will see. If they do overrule it, they're massively hypocritical given they constantly say that statues should be followed.

hypocritical!?!?! 

FASCISTS??? NEVER!

You're out on a limb on this one, Mr.

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1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

hypocritical!?!?! 

FASCISTS??? NEVER!

You're out on a limb on this one, Mr.

Yea but it'll set precedent that if you want to avoid written statues, just say you're trying to "cut through the red tape" see State of NY et al vs US Department of Commerce. I think that would create a problem.  

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I share Ty’s misgivings. The Dems are winning the blame game, but their motivations here are prevention of what they see as waste and ideological error (the Wall) and fear of establishing a precedent for Trump using shut downs to get w/e he wants. But the waste factor is a diminishing return. If/when the cost of the shutdown supersedes the expected cost of the wall, or at least whatever portion they refuse to fund, that position becomes increasingly fragile. Whereas Trump doesn’t care about how the effects others aside from it’s effect on his image, and there he seems to think a show of strength > all else. And while some of the GOP do care about the effects of the shutdown, that’s offset by the ‘all government is bad’ brigade AND those who think the Wall is what is best for the country. 

In this Trump’s narcissism actually might help his resolve, provided Fox et al don’t flip on him. As far as the very real fear of precedent, that’s often where the Dems historically fail, and part of that is the repeated pattern of Dems thinking that biting the bullet and doing ‘what’s best for the country’ will ultimately play well for them and paint the GOP as selfish/idealogical, but that fundamentally misunderstands the US priorizatuon of ‘winning’ over other factors regardless of the circumstances and the correlation with strength/weakness. It’s a sad truth that the GOP has always understood this more.

For instance Kavanaugh, where it was generally assumed that the GOP was faced with the choice of winning the appointment and losing public support, but no, predictably Trump’s popularity soared after pulling out the ‘win’ against...his own side, whose fear of bad or was literally the only obstacle. And, also predictably, a few weeks later it became a non-factor. But somehow this never stops the Dems from thinking this time will be the time when they get rewarded for losing on principle. 

Edited by James Arryn

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11 minutes ago, Mexal said:

We will see. If they do overrule it, they're massively hypocritical given they constantly say that statues should be followed.

The problem with statues is they always stay in one place, so following them is so boring.

but if birnham statues get on the move? hoo boy, what a march that will be! 

Treguna, Mekoides, Tracorum, Statis, Dee

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1 minute ago, lokisnow said:

The problem with statues is they always stay in one place, so following them is so boring.

but if birnham statues get on the move? hoo boy, what a march that will be! 

Treguna, Mekoides, Tracorum, Statis, Dee

Blah. I deserved that.

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24 minutes ago, Mexal said:

We will see. If they do overrule it, they're massively hypocritical given they constantly say that statues should be followed.

My point was calling out SCOTUS in such a way - basically arguing they have no justification for overturning his decision - is a great strategy to piss them off, and in the process motivate SCOTUS to overturn his decision.  If conservative justices are worried about looking massively hypocritical, they chose the wrong career path.

13 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I share Ty’s misgivings. [snip]

This sounds a lot more like an argument for the Dems to hold the line than sharing Ty's concerns that Trump can somehow turn the tables on the Dems regarding the blame game and/or that the Dems will eventually need to offer Trump some face-saving gesture to resolve the shutdown.

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I don't know why some clever Democrat hasn't said "America doesn't negotiate with terrorists" when it comes to Trump and the shutdown. Or has that one liner been used and I missed it?

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3 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Their best response was 'I welcome the chance to talk to the President about border security just as soon as the government is reopened'. 

In a vacuum, sure, but that can only work for so long.

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I swear you're like an over-worrying mother with this shutdown.  Trump's oval office address had no impact, nor did him staging a walk out of a meeting with Pelosi and Schumer, but a handful of Blue Dogs turning down lunch is going to?

It's a small thing, but those accumulate. And good god man, we're Democrats.  Don't you know our default position is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? 

2 hours ago, Mexal said:

Trump went beyond leadership to try to pick off a bunch of rank and file Dems. If they went for lunch, all the reporting would be about how Pelosi can't control her caucus which she very clearly can. It was the right move.

Aaaaaaaand that's why you read the article.... Because of the phrasing, I took it to mean that Pelosi plus some rank and file members turned down the President. 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

This sounds a lot more like an argument for the Dems to hold the line than sharing Ty's concerns that Trump can somehow turn the tables on the Dems regarding the blame game and/or that the Dems will eventually need to offer Trump some face-saving gesture to resolve the shutdown.

I doubt Trump can completely flip the situation on the Dems, he's too unpopular for that, but he could pull them down into the muck with him like he did with Clinton. And if that happens and the shutdown drags out for a very long time, the Dems will blink.  

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Aaaaaaaand that's why you read the article.... Because of the phrasing, I took it to mean that Pelosi plus some rank and file members turned down the President. 

Nah, it was specifically targeting new dems in districts that Trump won in 2016, many part of a 'blue dog' caucus. It's kind of a smartish move! It worked with Manchin before. 

But they either couldn't show up or turned him down, leaving the lunch to Republicans only, and showing exactly how much power and unity Pelosi actually has. I'm honestly hugely pleasantly surprised; I wasn't as in to politics when she was speaker in 2006-2010, and her as minority speaker wasn't that impressive, but so far she has shown entirely to be the right person for the job. 

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2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Nah, it was specifically targeting new dems in districts that Trump won in 2016, many part of a 'blue dog' caucus. It's kind of a smartish move! It worked with Manchin before. 

But they either couldn't show up or turned him down, leaving the lunch to Republicans only, and showing exactly how much power and unity Pelosi actually has. I'm honestly hugely pleasantly surprised; I wasn't as in to politics when she was speaker in 2006-2010, and her as minority speaker wasn't that impressive, but so far she has shown entirely to be the right person for the job. 

Yeah that does change the situation. That makes it kind of a non-issue either way unless they went and then broke in any way with Pelosi, which likely wouldn't have happened.

As for her previous Speakership, she was excellent at getting legislation through her chamber. She doesn't play all that well on TV, but she knows how to twist peoples' wrists in the backrooms and get what she wants passed.

On an unrelated note, I can't resist!:

 

 

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4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Pelosie eats healthy, as one can tell just by looking at her.  I'm not an admirer necessarily of Pelosie, but I wouldn't want to eat a White House lunch (or dinner) either.

Added: Ah -- I too read it as though it was she and associate who were bid to lunch on hamberbers and other multi-thousand, empty calorie junk foods.  And -- what in ell is an hamberber?  (No, I never eat in those places. I may be the only person on the planet who has never ever consumed a MacDonald's.  But then, I didn't used to ever ever watch tv either, but then came streaming on my computer screen, so who knows what the future holds.)

Edited by Zorral

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28 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I doubt Trump can completely flip the situation on the Dems, he's too unpopular for that, but he could pull them down into the muck with him like he did with Clinton. And if that happens and the shutdown drags out for a very long time, the Dems will blink.  

I think the hope is that it's Senate Republicans, and McConnell specifically, who blink. So far, only 3 or 4 have, and that's not nearly enough; but maybe more will buckle as things get worse.

And if they do, it'll be so overwhelmingly that there will more than enough votes to override any veto as well.

ETA: Speaking of cracks in Senate Republicans, 11 of them voted with Democrats to advance a resolution blocking Trump from lifting some of the sanctions in the 2017 Russia bill. It's not directly relevant to the shutdown politics since some of the 11 are the kinds of Republicans who'd probably be fine with the government being permanently shut, but it's a start. Though 2 more Republicans are needed if the others try to filibuster. The 11 are:

1) Boozman
2) Collins
3) Cotton
4) Daines
5) Gardner
6) Hawley
7) Kennedy
8) McSally
9) Moran
10) Rubio
11) Sasse

To me the surprises are Boozman, who usually doesn't make waves, and Hawley, who seemed like a typical Trump-y Republican in the campaign. All the rest are either up for re-election in 2020 or have consistently been Russia hawks even in the current times.

Edited by Fez

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27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's a small thing, but those accumulate. And good god man, we're Democrats.  Don't you know our default position is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? 

First, there's absolutely no evidence that such "small things" accumulate.  Second, well, maybe if Dems did not stereotypically hand-wring that your constant concerns seem to exemplify, they wouldn't lose so much.  :P

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I doubt Trump can completely flip the situation on the Dems, he's too unpopular for that, but he could pull them down into the muck with him like he did with Clinton. And if that happens and the shutdown drags out for a very long time, the Dems will blink.

Shutdowns are generally a pox on both houses.  That doesn't mean the Dems should blink - as long as Trump's numbers continue to drop as well (meaning the Dems maintain a significant advantage).

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

And if they do, it'll be so overwhelmingly that there will more than enough votes to override any veto as well.

Ironically, it be tougher to pass an override vote in the House in such an instance.

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

First, there's absolutely no evidence that such "small things" accumulate.  Second, well, maybe if Dems did not stereotypically hand-wring that your constant concerns seem to exemplify, they wouldn't lose so much.  :P

Shutdowns are generally a pox on both houses.  That doesn't mean the Dems should blink - as long as Trump's numbers continue to drop as well (meaning the Dems maintain a significant advantage).

Ironically, it be tougher to pass an override vote in the House in such an instance.

Yeah, whoever wins the nomination will get very little of the blame for the shutdown, even if they are a member of Congress. It's pretty clear Warren or Beto or Sanders are not personally causing this.

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Judging by this thread, I'm pretty sure Tulsi Gabbard bears some of the blame.

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I'm not sure that's wrong. 

Historically shutdowns don't end up mattering at all as far as elections go, but this one is a bit longer than usual. 

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2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Historically shutdowns don't end up mattering at all as far as elections go, but this one is a bit longer than usual.

Trying to measure a direct effect of shutdowns on elections that happen (at least) months later is a fool's errand anyway.  The 95-96 shutdowns happened 11 months before Clinton's reelection.  The 2013 shutdown happened 13 months before the 2014 midterms.  This one will be even further away from a major election.  Nobody really has any idea what impact they have on elections.

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