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three-eyed monkey

Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

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10 minutes ago, Impbread said:

I like most of this but the letter was dry and it would have been soaked as bemused pointed out if it came directly from Ramsey. The letter was definitely tampered with by the NW mutineers. They want Stannis family and Mel out of there to please the crown. 

I will have to re-read the pertinent material, but I doubt that if it was snowing heavily, that whoever sent it would have failed to take measures to protect it from the elements. - a protective cover, for example.   Which would be removed and long gone by the time Jon got it.  Of course, we also don't know the weather conditions by the time the message is sent, which is some time after the Theon preview chapter.

My big problem with tampering is that Marsh & Co are trying to avoid conflict with the Boltons, and the letter would seem to be likely to do the opposite.  Plus, as I mentioned in my own account, which matches @RedShirt47's pretty well, it's perfectly logical for Ramsay to ask for Stannis's family and Mel.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I will have to re-read the pertinent material, but I doubt that if it was snowing heavily, that whoever sent it would have failed to take measures to protect it from the elements. - a protective cover, for example.   Which would be removed and long gone by the time Jon got it.  Of course, we also don't know the weather conditions by the time the message is sent, which is some time after the Theon preview chapter.

My big problem with tampering is that Marsh & Co are trying to avoid conflict with the Boltons, and the letter would seem to be likely to do the opposite.  Plus, as I mentioned in my own account, which matches @RedShirt47's pretty well, it's perfectly logical for Ramsay to ask for Stannis's family and Mel.

Theon noted in an earlier chapter that an incoming letter was wet from the snow I feel like they set that up for a reason so that the later letter that traveled even further than the original letter should have been wet but was not the people holding the letter were wet for Christ's sakes but not the letter to me that shows that the Nights Watch mutineers obviously intercepted the letter and rewrote it adding the parts that they felt they needed to to get John to send away stannis's family and Mel. It has the feel of Thorne with all the usage of bastard and the term wildling princess. Also it was not written in blood nor did it have the big spikey writing further indicating a rewrite. Not to mention lack of a proper seal which they would not have access to. Stannis or Ramsey whoever sent it had their letter intercepted.

Edited by Impbread

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On 2/9/2019 at 10:04 PM, The Map Guy said:

I believe Mance, the character who was born lucky since his name-day, evaded capture in Winterfell. Mance is like a James Bond, he gets away with everything.

I believe Mel, the only other character who knows about Mance's secret mission, wrote the Pink Letter. She knew about the bride and Reek after two-way-only raven-communication between Castle Black and Crofter's Village. I believe Mel wanted to test Jon Snow's Azor Ahai-ness. She knows how Jon would react to the letter, and she saw the potential mutiny in the fire. She removes all suspicion of herself by calling herself a "red whore".

If Mel can glamour Rattleshirt and Mance in front of hundreds of people, she can deceive Jon by glamouring herself with Ramsey Bolton in a letter.

 

I agree that Mance got away, but I think it was him that wrote the letter, not Mel.

The default stance for Ramsay writing the letter is that he obtained the pertinent information from Mance. 
Except,
1. Mance was almost certainly incognito at the time Theon and Jeyne escaped. Although there was an alarm raised due to Jeyne screaming, there was still an incredibly likely chance that the ruse was going to be discovered imminently anyway just by having Ramsay or someone else walk into "Arya's" bedchamber. At the same time Theon and the Spearwives are meeting Jeyne, Mance is already moving on to the next step of his plan (maybe the crypts?). Why would he just be twiddling his thumbs around in the in main hall if it's likely Jeyne's departure will soon be noticed? Besides, his fighting skill has been established, he's probably not getting captured easily.

2. Obtaining the information from Mance seems unbelievable. Too much of it is information Ramsay would not think to ask about, such as Val, Melisandre, the baby (Mance thinks it's HIS child). Even if successfully tortured, Mance is only going to answer questions he's asked, not likely volunteering additional information that does nothing but expose his family and loved ones to danger.

I simply think the remaining spearwives escaped or were killed, and Mance managed to hide out in the crypts. He's figured out how to manipulate the glamour to look like someone else (Martin goes into a detailed section where Melisandre explains the nuts and bolts of the glamour to him). However, the situation inside Winterfell is dire, especially when Mance hears that Stannis was defeated (Stannis is pulling a ruse with the Umbers to trick Ramsay into thinking he was defeated and gives up his sword as part of that), and thus Mance is trying to goad Jon into coming down to attack the Boltons, conveniently telling him to bring along Melisandre and Mance's son and sister-in-law.

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3 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I wonder if from Roose's perspective, he just wants both the Freys and Manderley forces in Winterfell crushed.  The great thing about the Freys is their numbers, and Roose probably feels very safe inside Winterfell withstanding any kind of siege from Stannis, even with a limited number of men.  The one thing he really did fear was the in-fighting inside Winterfell, so he can eliminate all that and have less mouths to feed while still having the numbers to withstand a siege from Stannis, who is stuck outside freezing to death and starving. 

"Truth be told," she said, "Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle … but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf."

Roose may have aspirations as King-of-the-North as Lady Dustin suggests. If Walder Frey did side with Roose against the Lannisters then the Freys would provide a nice buffer south of the Neck. But I still think Roose would be happy to lose Hosteen's men, or at least see them greatly reduced.

On one hand, they do bring 400 horse and 1000 foot, but Roose returned from the south with around 4000 northmen, mostly Bolton men, and was met by Ramsay, Hothor Umber, Dustin, and Ryswell hosts at Moat Cailin. We don't have exact numbers but the Freys are one-fifth of his strength at best. Roose might think that an acceptable loss if there was something to be gained. A lot less mouths to feed, as you suggest. The defeat of Stannis. Then there's the fact that they are universally hated in the north and their commander, Hosteen is volatile, which certainly doesn't lend to Roose's rule: a peaceful land, a quiet people.

The Manderlys he obviously wants rid of. I suspect he thinks the Freys will do that sooner rather than later. The Karstarks are northmen and he probably considers them more loyal than some other northern houses, so their return to Winterfell would be welcomed by Roose.

2 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

For an effective set piece battle, you need more soldiers, so I think a Bolton+selected allies column is on its way as well.

I agree. Largely Bolton men commanded by Ramsay. His bride's identity is too important to their cause to leave to chance.

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On 2/9/2019 at 8:04 PM, The Map Guy said:

She removes all suspicion of herself by calling herself a "red whore".

She removed all suspiscion from Ghost, too, when they last met and he approached her as a friendly.   It looked like the stripping away of Jon's protections, so I was sure she did that via magic means, but we've seen that the simplest and best way to "trick" one of these dogs into liking you is to not trick them at all: just be genuinely no threat to their Stark.  So that becomes an interesting combo, if Mel means Jon no harm yet wrote the words that got him harmed.   Unless he isn't harmed.  We may be about to see how deep the glamoring can go. 

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2 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

She removed all suspiscion from Ghost, too, when they last met and he approached her as a friendly.   It looked like the stripping away of Jon's protections, so I was sure she did that via magic means, but we've seen that the simplest and best way to "trick" one of these dogs into liking you is to not trick them at all: just be genuinely no threat to their Stark.  So that becomes an interesting combo, if Mel means Jon no harm yet wrote the words that got him harmed.   Unless he isn't harmed.  We may be about to see how deep the glamoring can go. 

You can be cute and funny.  What say you and I bring this back to ASOIAf rather that chitter about MCUinverse, Magicians season 4 and Discovery of Witches.

Yeah, I clicked your avatar,

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Impbread said:

I feel like Roose has sufficient numbers so that he can spread them out evenly. Even if he thinks he knows where the attack is coming from. You can only fit so many men on top of a wall. But I guess anything is possible in fiction.

Well the commander of an army was notified by his front line troops AND from the spies hiding with the enemy, that a frontal assault will be executed at his fort, WITH GIANTS. The GIANTS will charge towards the two gates and can it take down in a couple of shots.

If Roose is the type of commander that does not change his strategic plans after receiving new reconnaissance, so be it. But he only has one chance to make the right decision. If he makes a poor decision, its over for him.

 

Edited by The Map Guy

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4 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

if Mel means Jon no harm yet wrote the words that got him harmed.

I have changed my stance on the Pink Letter. What you quoted me was 2 months ago.

I have changed from 'Team Mel - Mel was testing Jon's Azor Ahai-ness' to currently 'Team Mel - Mel played a prank on Jon that went terribly wrong because Jon was stupid'

The whole point of Mel writing Jon the Pink Letter was to get Jon to talk to her again after Jon gives her the cold shoulder.

"Tell his red whore" was Mel telling Jon to go talk to her. Too bad Jon didn't listen, made a public speech and got himself killed.

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13 hours ago, Nevets said:

Plus, as I mentioned in my own account, which matches @RedShirt47's pretty well, it's perfectly logical for Ramsay to ask for Stannis's family and Mel.

19 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.
Don't know. Don't suppose it matters much. She only needs to appear to be Arya for the Lords. He doesn't expect Jon to leave the Wall, Night's Watch don't take part in the affairs south of the Wall.
He just hoped Jon would be scared enough to send him Theon and fArya.

I agree it is logical for Ramsay to ask for Stannis' family and Mel. They are considered rebels, like Stannis. The Lord of Winterfell would be expected to ask for them, and Jon too for that matter as he had made a common cause with Stannis.

However, to say the point about Arya doesn't matter much totally ignores the political situation as outlined in the story.

Roose and Tywin devised the wedding for a reason. The king made Roose his Warden of the North. The king also legitimized Ramsay and awarded him Winterfell. Technically that's all they need, but Roose and Tywin both understood the value of the Stark name in the north. They could have simply said, all the Stark heirs are dead except for Sansa who is suspected of regicide, and Jon who is bound to the Watch. Ramsay could have taken a bride from a strong northern house to strengthen alliances. Winterfell was his by decree of the king anyway. But instead, a fake Arya was created for the marriage, to maintain the connection with the Starks who had ruled from Winterfell for centuries.

Roose and Tywin would not have done this unless they felt it was important to stabilizing the north and returning it to the king's peace. Roose had climbed to power on the back of the red wedding after all, so some element of public relations was always going to be necessary if he was going to rule over houses he betrayed. 

Theon was cleaned-up and brought to the wedding to play his part in the charade. He had grown up a ward of Winterfell and knew Arya since her birth. His presence validates her identity, which is vital to the plan. None of the northern lords knew her half as well as Theon did. Some may have had their suspicions, given that Arya had been reported dead only to be conveniently resurrected for the wedding, but without proof they would have to keep their suspicions to themselves.

Jon also grew up in Winterfell and knew Arya well. Jon is known to have made a common cause with Stannis against the Boltons. Jon is known, according to the letter, to be behind the stealing of Ramsay's bride. Jon has already acted against them and they have proof of that in the form of Mance in a cage for all the north to see. If Jon discovered that the wedding, which was important to them politically, was predicated on a lie, as he will as soon as he sees Jeyne, then of course they would expect him to use that against them as he is clearly their enemy.

The Boltons would never ask for Jon to return Jeyne and say nothing unless they were extremely naive. Since when has it become beneficial for your enemies to know your secrets? The Boltons would hunt her all the way to the Wall first, because it would benefit them greatly if they could prevent Jon from discovering the truth about Arya. Why bother constructing such a lie and then using Theon to validate it if it doesn't really matter?

This point alone is enough to discount Ramsay as a potential author, but I guess some readers feel the political plots are not really an important part of the story.

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The Boltons would never ask for Jon to return Jeyne and say nothing unless they were extremely naive. Since when has it become beneficial for your enemies to know your secrets? The Boltons would hunt her all the way to the Wall first, because it would benefit them greatly if they could prevent Jon from discovering the truth about Arya. Why bother constructing such a lie and then using Theon to validate it if it doesn't really matter?

Thus the lengths they go to to establish that he is a liar and a supporter of Stannis.  If he does try to say she is a fake, the fact that he is a liar and traitor makes it easier to brand him as a liar in this case.  Given that he already has plenty of motive to lie - to protect his sister if nothing else - they can at least make a plausible case that FArya is the real thing.  Just because Jon says she's fake doesn't mean he will be universally believed on the matter.

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2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Thus the lengths they go to to establish that he is a liar and a supporter of Stannis.  If he does try to say she is a fake, the fact that he is a liar and traitor makes it easier to brand him as a liar in this case.  Given that he already has plenty of motive to lie - to protect his sister if nothing else - they can at least make a plausible case that FArya is the real thing.  Just because Jon says she's fake doesn't mean he will be universally believed on the matter.

What if FArya says she isn't Arya?

 

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3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Thus the lengths they go to to establish that he is a liar and a supporter of Stannis.  If he does try to say she is a fake, the fact that he is a liar and traitor makes it easier to brand him as a liar in this case.  Given that he already has plenty of motive to lie - to protect his sister if nothing else - they can at least make a plausible case that FArya is the real thing.  Just because Jon says she's fake doesn't mean he will be universally believed on the matter.

There's also Jeyne to consider.

12 minutes ago, redriver said:

What if FArya says she isn't Arya?

Exactly. Jon and Jeyne's testimony against Theon Turncloak and the Bolton's who betrayed the north and have most to gain from the lie.

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6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

[snip]

The Boltons would hunt her all the way to the Wall first, because it would benefit them greatly if they could prevent Jon from discovering the truth about Arya. Why bother constructing such a lie and then using Theon to validate it if it doesn't really matter?

This point alone is enough to discount Ramsay as a potential author, but I guess some readers feel the political plots are not really an important part of the story.

 

Awww! This is kinda like saying people who don't agree with your theory are not getting the book since in your eyes we don't get the importance of the political plot.

That's a cheap shot. And unwarranted.

Everyone gets the importance of Jeyne/Arya and that the Boltons will desperately wish to get her back and would vastly prefer to get her back without Jon laying eyes on her! Of course. We all know that. But here is the point: there are the practical problems which George Martin has laid out - and surely laid out for a reason! The practical reasons that make a successful hunt to the wall very hard for the Boltons. And thus the reason for the letter remains.

The weather is awful. Extremely bad visibility. Enemy around Winterfell in unknown number, getting to the fleeing captives first. Pitfalls in front of the gates. Impending battle.

It is not even clear Ramsay has gotten a report of them reaching Stannis in all that dense snowfall!  Who was there to see where they went with that visibility? No one. That's because they went to the Umbers first - and we know the Boltons never had managed to spot the Umbers either! So: Once they had passed the outer wall and met the Umbers they were gone from the Bolton's vision. And were among Ramsay's enemies. No way to simply hunt them with a dog pack like usual.

To complicate things more: Jeyne and Theon then DO manage to reach Stannis. Even in case Ramsay gets intelligence about this somehow (which isn't sure) they now are in the middle of a whole army! Even Ramsay and his dogs can't hunt someone in the middle of a hostile army. Then of course they leave for the wall. But how to track them THROUGH Stannis army? And with that bad weather and all. And hear about when they actually leave? I mean with the Karstarks and the maester uncovered by Stannis.

Yes, that they may very well head for the wall eventually is quite likely from Ramsay's pov. But which way do they take? Directly up the kingsroad? Or crosscountry? Or via Stannis' camp first? The North is huge. And that with an impending battle, Umber guerrilla, heavy snowfall.

I am not at all surprised Ramsay did not manage to catch them. Doesn't mean he didn't try. But he failed.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Amris said:

Awww! This is kinda like saying people who don't agree with your theory are not getting the book since in your eyes we don't get the importance of the political plot.

That's a cheap shot. And unwarranted. 

No. I'm saying any argument that states it doesn't matter to Ramsay that Jon would know Arya is fake ignores the political reality. I don't see how pointing that out is a cheap shot or unwarranted?

2 hours ago, Amris said:

Everyone gets the importance of Jeyne/Arya and that the Boltons will desperately wish to get her back and would vastly prefer to get her back without Jon laying eyes on her! Of course. We all know that.

Do we?

8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:
  On 4/11/2019 at 2:12 PM, RedShirt47 said:

10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.
Don't know. Don't suppose it matters much.

Of course it matters. Everyone thinking that fArya is Arya is as important to the Boltons as everyone thinking fAegon is Aegon is to Varys. It is not beneficial for your enemies to hold proof to the contrary or else your lie is undone and the benefit you derived from the lie is finished. Jon is Ramsay's enemy, he is the one who sent Mance to steal Ramsay's bride. He is someone who would see Arya is a fake. Writing to him and hoping he sends her back without saying anything is naive, at best.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

But here is the point: there are the practical problems which George Martin has laid out - and surely laid out for a reason! The practical reasons that make a successful hunt to the wall very hard for the Boltons. And thus the reason for the letter remains. 

The weather is awful. Extremely bad visibility. Enemy around Winterfell in unknown number, getting to the fleeing captives first. Pitfalls in front of the gates. Impending battle.

Roose knows where Stannis is. Roose knows some portion of the enemy is outside the gates because they have been blowing horns. Roose knows the weather is extremely bad but that did not stop him ordering the Freys and Manderlys to assemble for an attack on Stannis before the alarm was raised about Jeyne.

Jeyne and Reek's escape will only add urgency. It is not going to make them less inclined to ride out.

Yes, the pits slowed them down but it will not hold them for long. Neither will Crowfood's green boys with spades.

Roose knows that Crowfood has sided with Stannis. It is also safe to assume that the force blowing horns outside Winterfell and digging pits outside the gates are aligned with Stannis.

It is also safe to assume that the force outside the walls will be the first people to recover Reek and Jeyne. As it is likely this force is aligned with Stannis, but not Stannis' main force, which Roose knows is snowed in at the crofters village three days away, then Stannis camp is the obvious place to go to recover Jeyne and Reek as both were frail and Castle Black is 600 miles away.

If they did have to hunt her all the way to Castle Black, then the weather is as bad for her as it is for them, but at least they know where she is going. It would be more of a race than a hunt really. And we also know from Mance and Liddle that there are Bolton watchers and riders on the roads of the north. The Boltons also have allies further north who they could send a raven to with instructions to cut her off. Even if she won that race it would not be by much. She was still at Stannis camp in Theon I, and Stannis was expecting the Freys to attack him soon. If a day or two lead was sufficient for her to win a three week race to the Wall then the Boltons would be right behind her and come down on Jon before he had sufficient time to react.

It might not be easy, but the importance of Arya and her fake identity remaining intact is such that they would have to try, and not just leave it to a letter that asks the man who stole her, an enemy of theirs, to give her back and then forget about the fact it isn't really Arya.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

It is not even clear Ramsay has gotten a report of them reaching Stannis in all that dense snowfall!  Who was there to see where they went with that visibility? No one. That's because they went to the Umbers first - and we know the Boltons never had managed to spot the Umbers either! So: Once they had passed the outer wall and met the Umbers they were gone from the Bolton's vision. And were among Ramsay's enemies. No way to simply hunt them with a dog pack like usual.

Dogs are for hunting prey when you don't know where they age going. Stannis camp is the first obvious location and they know where that is. They don't need dogs to lead them there. The same goes for Castle Black. And they know Stannis has an army so they are not going to after her with just a pack of dogs. They will obviously hunt her with an army because she is in the possession of an enemy army. They were already planning on making the journey to attack Stannis. Now they have an extra motive.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

I am not at all surprised Ramsay did not manage to catch them. Doesn't mean he didn't try. But he failed.

The only reason he will stop hunting her is if he is defeated by Stannis.

He's not going to go back to Winterfell and say ~ I can't find her, I'll just write to the guy who stole her and ask for her back. It doesn't matter that he has made a common cause with Stannis against us. It doesn't matter that he will know she is not Arya Stark and that the wedding is a lie. It doesn't matter that she will not want to come back and will tell everyone who she really is in order to prevent that.

Edited by three-eyed monkey

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Posted (edited)

3EM has got back in more detail, but maybe this is also helpful.

 

2 hours ago, Amris said:

we know the Boltons never had managed to spot the Umbers either!

hmmm, but did they ever look in earnest? They sent a few scouts out who disappeared, but there were no serious seek & destroy parties. In fact until the raven appeared, the impression in WF seemed to be that Stannis' entire army was outside the walls.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

So: Once they had passed the outer wall and met the Umbers they were gone from the Bolton's vision. And were among Ramsay's enemies. No way to simply hunt them with a dog pack like usual.

Good points, not trying to pick the nits, but to develop the discussion: The moment the escape was reported to Ramsay and Roose, who also now know that Stannis is three days' march away and not camped outside, you can be sure they will be out in force. Admittedly, this might be a few hours after the actual escape as even though the alarm was sounded, it might take some time to come to the realization that it was T&J who escaped. So, it's actually possible that there is a smaller party that's sent first "Find whoever that was who dares to escape, even if it's the blasted washerwomen, they must be spies" followed by "Whaaaaaaaaaaa tf? Send everybody, Arya must not, can not be found".

2 hours ago, Amris said:

Even Ramsay and his dogs can't hunt someone in the middle of a hostile army. Then of course they leave for the wall. But how to track them THROUGH Stannis army?

Ok, in this context, I would be curious to know what scenario you assume. Who wins the battle of the ice? Did Ramsay get there too late and find out the Freys were now for the most part under the ice, come running back to WF, interrogate Abel/SWs and send off the PL with completely fake news? As per 3EM's arguments that seems a bit strange. In this scenario, as far as Ramsay knows, T&J are with Stan and a long way from CB, why alert Jon about the escape?

Btw, I'm not a convinced follower of the Stannis theory, just trying to reason this whole thing out.

Edited by Ser Hedge

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I think Roose may have a reason to write the letter. His men are getting hateful inside Winterfell. They are about to turn on him [Roose] and each other. He senses it. He knows Manderlys are not the only House planning a plot.

 

And a good way to unite all the houses inside Winterfell would be to have them kill a bunch Wildings together. Or have the Wildings join Stannis. That way he could have all/most the Northern Houses unite by viewing Stannis as an enemy since he is allied with Wildings. Houses like Umber might put their conspiracy plans aside to beat the Wildings.

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2 hours ago, Shpati said:

I think Roose may have a reason to write the letter. His men are getting hateful inside Winterfell. They are about to turn on him [Roose] and each other. He senses it. He knows Manderlys are not the only House planning a plot.

 

And a good way to unite all the houses inside Winterfell would be to have them kill a bunch Wildings together. Or have the Wildings join Stannis. That way he could have all/most the Northern Houses unite by viewing Stannis as an enemy since he is allied with Wildings. Houses like Umber might put their conspiracy plans aside to beat the Wildings.

As far as Roose and Ramsay (and Mance and the spear wives), there are only a few hundred Wildlings of fighting quality south of the wall - those that surrendered to Stannis. No one outside CB and neighbouring NW forts  knows that Tormund and 3000 more (incl women and children) Wildlings crossed the wall recently.

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You could argue of course that Mance might have foreseen this development since he has the measure of Jon and obviously Tormund as well as the chemistry between them, but it's still not known as a fact. So any theory that assumes the letter will automatically result in Jon raising a 1000+ wilding army has to contend with that.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This point alone is enough to discount Ramsay as a potential author, but I guess some readers feel the political plots are not really an important part of the story.

I have never suggested that the political aspects are unimportant.  What I have said, and continue to say, is that they are containable.  Or at least Ramsay thinks they are.  From what I've seen, Ramsay is not the best strategic thinker around.  He is impulsive and often focused on short-term gratification.  If Roose is not involved in the sending of the letter, this could account for the political deficiencies.

Who is Jon going to tell and how is he going to do it? I  He can't exactly hold a news conference on the steps of Castle Black, and I don't know that he is going to want to use up his ravens on the subject.  Plus, everybody important is locked up at Winterfell.  Also, we know Jon a lot better than Ramsay does.  He may think he can intimidate Jon into silence.  Or limit the damage if he can't.

Yes, establishing Arya's bona fides is very important for the Boltons.  But she's escaped, so they have to deal with the situation as it presents itself as best they can.  We don't know when or even if Ramsay discovered that Jeyne left Stannis's camp, or how long it took to clear the gates and get an army to his camp.  Or if they have even done so.  The letter might be entirely false.

If Jeyne has a decent head start,, and her party is riding the lightweight horses of the clansmen, it could be impossible for Ramsay to catch up with them before they reach Castle Black.  And their escort is big enough to deal with anything a local Bolton man can likely come up with.  

About all the Boltons can do at this point is play their (bad) hand as best they can, and hope it works.  As I pointed out before, the big problem is that Jeyne is no longer in their possession, period.   Unless that changes, the rest doesn't really matter all that much.  Once they have no fear for Arya's safety, the Manderlys, et al will be free to turn on them and at that point, they are essentially toast. 

 

Edited by Nevets

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