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mormont

UK Politics: Time Marches On

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Just now, Spockydog said:

And then what...?

Good question.  

Probably, continued division, unless it had been  made very clear that no one would be adopted as a Conservative candidate unless they committed to voting for the Withdrawal Agreement.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

No, it isn't. Thursday is the important day with regards to the votes in the commons.

No. Today was the important vote. I went to bed last night on the understanding that Cox was 'agonising.' I woke up shitting myself that she'd win the vote, and we'd end up worse off than we were before all this nonsense. 

58 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

So? I am voting against Winter every year for that matter. Again, Thursday matters, when they decide what kind of extension they will be asking for.

It will be two years.

58 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Really? Why is that? Has Labour managed to get enough votes for a motion of no confidence?

Well, in any normal universe, today would be the straw that broke May's prime ministerial back. If she had any integrity she would resign. But she won't, so who the heck knows what will happen.

58 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. As of right now, there's no majority for a second referendum, but what is it now; a new GE or a second referendum?

I have no idea. In an ideal world, Corbyn drops dead or resigns, and someone emerges with (most of) Corbyn's policies, but without suitcases full of fetid horseshit from the seventies. Then we have a GE and the Tories get fucking destroyed. They sure as hell deserve it.

Whatever happens, another vote seems inevitable. And I stand by what I said above. It will be almost impossible for Leave to win.

Edited by Spockydog

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6 hours ago, Spockydog said:

It will be two years.

That would mean the UK participating in the upcoming EU elections. Something both Tory and Labour frontbench have ruled out.

I mentioned that point a few pages ago, about Westminster MPs not thinking the results of their actions/decissions thru to the very end.

So please keep the EU elections in mind, when this question is asked. So when Tories and Labour start drifting off into fantasy land, in which they will get an extension of two years without comitting to participate in the election. Extension needs the consent from the EU member states, and patience has grown incredibly thin.

So like I said, the Thursday (tomorrow's) vote is more important than today's (in allhonesty pretty meaningless) rejection of no-deal. As somebody else pointed out, the problem with this parliament is not them rejecting outcomes, but actively choosing and pursuing one.

We are by no means out of no-deal territory.

6 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Well, in any normal universe, today would be the straw that broke May's prime ministerial back. If she had any integrity she would resign. But she won't, so who the heck knows what will happen.

In a normal universe she would have put her deal to the vote back in December and resigned after losing it with a 2:1 margin, or earlier after her snap election. But when you use that restriction you already acknowledge, we are not in a normal universe. We haven't been for quite some time now.

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7 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Whatever happens, another vote seems inevitable. And I stand by what I said above. It will be almost impossible for Leave to win.

I think you are seriously under estimating the depth of feeling in the country. 

Right now there are polls which suggest that Remain would win a second vote , but around the country the ‘people’s vote:rolleyes:‘ is mostly viewed as a back door to cancelling Brexit, and that is something they could easily motivate people to double down on Leave. It’s also an easy message to sell to people that the establishment is trying to take away your original vote and make you choose again.

I suspect Remain would win a second vote but then I thought it would would win the first one 

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8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Who, the Queen? :P

(Sorry, your post rather humourously followed MMs about the Queen)

Wouldn't blame her.  She must be itching to stride into Parliament and knock their heads together. 

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If we took part in another EU election, I think we'd be sending some pretty strange people to Strasbourg.

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11 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

Slightly conflicting messages from the EU:

Merkel says an extension will be possible 

The Presidents say the UK must have a credible reason to delay Berxit

Does not knowing arse from elbow count as credible?

 

I'm not seeing the conflict between the 2 statements TBH; but we've known this for a while. The EU won't grant an extension just to give us more road for can-kicking (same deal; or variations on the theme) but would for a new referendum, or a new deal absent May's red lines. They may or may not for a general election (my guess wold be not; as let's face it, a GE won't actually solve anything at all; just swap one divided, disingenuous (posisbly minority) government, for another - quite possibly the not even swapping anything at all.

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Re: fantasising about the Queen stepping in somehow, this is, I'm afraid, never ever going to happen. The Queen cares about precisely one thing, and one thing only, in the political arena, and that is preserving the monarchy as head of state. She is perfectly well aware that intervening in any other subject would put that at risk. She will do nothing, even if she was inclined to, which honestly I don't think she is. Which is as it should be, because the idea of the Queen intervening is profoundly anti-democratic.

It is wild - absolutely wild - that May appears to be considering putting her deal to the Commons again. What the actual fuck?

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11 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I'm not seeing the conflict between the 2 statements TBH; but we've known this for a while. The EU won't grant an extension just to give us more road for can-kicking (same deal; or variations on the theme) but would for a new referendum, or a new deal absent May's red lines. They may or may not for a general election (my guess wold be not; as let's face it, a GE won't actually solve anything at all; just swap one divided, disingenuous (posisbly minority) government, for another - quite possibly the not even swapping anything at all.

While I wish the EU decided to demand a coherent reason behind an extension request that most of the UK parliament would get behind, I think it will probably grant a short extension on most any pretence, if only to finalise it's own no-deal preparations.

If there's a vote regarding an extension in Parliament tomorrow it will be a yes or no one. The vote itself will probably pass, but any amendment that tries to attach any semi-specific, logical or reasonable purpose to said extension will be shot down in flames. Only amendments that are vague enough to commit no one to nothing have any chance of succeeding.

BTW, as far as I understood, the last-minute (and ultimately pointless) add-on to the WA that May negotiated with the EU, needed to be ratified by the EU. Since it was voted down in Parliament, the EU won't bother. This means that May's deal, if presented to Parliament again in 2 months, would be the original deal, rather than the one with a little bit extra (since the EU will be closed for business from the 18th of April until the formation of a new Parliament). Can anyone confirm I am correct?

15 minutes ago, mormont said:

It is wild - absolutely wild - that May appears to be considering putting her deal to the Commons again. What the actual fuck?

Talk about voting for something again and again until the vote comes out right :P

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1 hour ago, Mentat said:

While I wish the EU decided to demand a coherent reason behind an extension request that most of the UK parliament would get behind, I think it will probably grant a short extension on most any pretence, if only to finalise it's own no-deal preparations.

If there's a vote regarding an extension in Parliament tomorrow it will be a yes or no one. The vote itself will probably pass, but any amendment that tries to attach any semi-specific, logical or reasonable purpose to said extension will be shot down in flames. Only amendments that are vague enough to commit no one to nothing have any chance of succeeding.

BTW, as far as I understood, the last-minute (and ultimately pointless) add-on to the WA that May negotiated with the EU, needed to be ratified by the EU. Since it was voted down in Parliament, the EU won't bother. This means that May's deal, if presented to Parliament again in 2 months, would be the original deal, rather than the one with a little bit extra (since the EU will be closed for business from the 18th of April until the formation of a new Parliament). Can anyone confirm I am correct?

Talk about voting for something again and again until the vote comes out right :P

What the EU ought to do is say that they'll grant a short extension either to enable the WA to be voted through, or for A50 to be revoked.

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

I'm not seeing the conflict between the 2 statements TBH; but we've known this for a while. The EU won't grant an extension just to give us more road for can-kicking (same deal; or variations on the theme) but would for a new referendum, or a new deal absent May's red lines. They may or may not for a general election (my guess wold be not; as let's face it, a GE won't actually solve anything at all; just swap one divided, disingenuous (posisbly minority) government, for another - quite possibly the not even swapping anything at all.

Just the Presidents being more cautious - wanting an actual reason

56 minutes ago, mormont said:

Re: fantasising about the Queen stepping in somehow, this is, I'm afraid, never ever going to happen. The Queen cares about precisely one thing, and one thing only, in the political arena, and that is preserving the monarchy as head of state. She is perfectly well aware that intervening in any other subject would put that at risk. She will do nothing, even if she was inclined to, which honestly I don't think she is. Which is as it should be, because the idea of the Queen intervening is profoundly anti-democratic.

She's the only one that can save us now ...

Quote

It is wild - absolutely wild - that May appears to be considering putting her deal to the Commons again. What the actual fuck?

If this is her tactic, she might as well just keep organising referendums until the public capitulate!

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Interesting to see the proposed tariffs that the UK would adopt under no-deal this morning. 
It outlines that NI would be treated differently to the rest of the UK, with majority of UK levying tariffs on EU imports but not NI. So no-deal involves a border in the Irish Sea. After all the nonsense the UK finally admits no-deal means a border in the sea. Hilarious if it wasn't so depressing. 

This proposal this morning, if no-deal goes ahead is a major boon for smuggling and criminality in NI. And we all  know where that leads. 

i thought this whole 'reject May's deal' was because NI would be treated differently
and now we find...no-deal....would treat NI differently 

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10 minutes ago, SeanF said:

What the EU ought to do is say that they'll grant a short extension either to enable the WA to be voted through, or for A50 to be revoked.

That would be reasonable, but currently neither of those options come anywhere close to having a majority in Parliament. If Parliament had to vote to request an extension for one or the other you might be able to squeeze it through with MPs who want to revoke A50 and Remain voting alongside those who want to leave under the auspices of the WA (and even then it would be close... how many of the 391 MPs that voted no to May's deal actually want to revoke A50?), but if you had two separate votes I think neither of them would pass.

As I said, if the EU does grant an extension (and it might not, they seem pretty divided on this issue themselves...), I think it will do so in order to have an extra couple of months to finalise its own no deal preparations, with no expectations whatsoever of Parliament putting said couple of months to good use.

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Apparently Brexit supporters like Farage and Arron Banks are leaning on the Italians to get them to veto any extension of Article 50. They've had meetings with Salvini to try to accomplish that. Entertainingly, Lega Nord recently entered into an alliance and association with the Russian government.

The feeling seems to be that if Italy tries to play hardball, Germany and France may try to force it to step down and support and extension, but that is far from certain.

In that case, Britain would either crash out of the EU without a deal or would have to unilaterally revoke Article 50 altogether.

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watching Farage this morning promising he'll veto an extension is pretty horrific
how can this man be allowed to destroy a country?

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7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently Brexit supporters like Farage and Arron Banks are leaning on the Italians to get them to veto any extension of Article 50. They've had meetings with Salvini to try to accomplish that. Entertainingly, Lega Nord recently entered into an alliance and association with the Russian government.

The feeling seems to be that if Italy tries to play hardball, Germany and France may try to force it to step down and support and extension, but that is far from certain.

In that case, Britain would either crash out of the EU without a deal or would have to unilaterally revoke Article 50 altogether.

Was just about to post that tweet. These guys are fucking traitors, and should be locked up.

I imagine if Farage's mate vetoes an extension, we will have no choice but to revoke. The irony would be delicious.

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I'm relieved we can count on the Brexiteers to sabotage Brexit by any means necessary.

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8 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Was just about to post that tweet. These guys are fucking traitors, and should be locked up.

I imagine if Farage's mate vetoes an extension, we will have no choice but to revoke. The irony would be delicious.

if it becomes a revoke V no-deal I have no faith this lot would do the right thing

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