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Which Tyler

UK Politics: Another vote, just not for anyone who might change their minds

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I caught a glimpse of a headline that says BoJo claims the chance of a no-deal Brexit is a million to 1.

2 things: BoJo confirms there is a chance of no-deal Brexit with BoJo as PM; and if he gets to 30 October without something other than no-deal on offer, does the chance of no-deal Brexit become 100%?

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Spoiler: Johnson is lieing thru his teeth to a deluded Tory base, or he is deluded himself. Or maybe it's both.

Check the Ivan Rogers bit I linked a bit upthread. Rogers has the disadvantage of actually knowing what he is talking about. He has served the UK representative to the EU for years, and thus has actual experience with the actual EU and its workings, and not the Brexiter fantasy.

Rory Stewart was/is right, when called out the other Tory hopeless as not being truthful, whenever they suggest(ed) they will get the EU to reopen the WA and negotiate a better deal. It's simply not going happen. They will grant some cosmetic changes to the Future Declaration, but the Backstop is there to stay.

So this entire leadership election is quite frankly a waste of everybody's time. But that has been the case ever since May announced, that she was gonna step down.

So to get to your point 2. The actual WA is still on offer, and also revoke is. And arguably an extension. But there he would need to poit out why more time would solve anything. The WA will stay the same, so what good would a further extension do?

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-trade-deal-south-america-mercosur-a8980036.html

 

"The European Union and South American bloc Mercosur have struck a trade deal after two decades of negotiations.

The two blocs intensified efforts to reach an agreement after Donald Trump’s presidential victory prompted the EU to halt talks with the United States and look for alternative trading allies.

That push has seen it implement a free trade agreement with Canada and reach agreements with Japan and Mexico and now, after 39 rounds of talks, also a provisional deal with Mercosur – the grouping of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguayand Uruguay."

Nice. Guess who won't be reaping the benefits of all these agreements, because they, errrr.... want to be able to strike their own free trade agreements  :bawl:

 

Edited by Ser Hedge

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Given the speed with which a provisional agreement was reached since 2016 happened, it seems clear that one or other or both sides had a Mercosur / EU deal on an indefinite delay cycle, but with things coming to a head they quickly found points of agreement on most issues.

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Nobody bothered to mention The heavy heart with which Hunt would tell family businesses, them going out of business is a price well worth paying for Brexit.

Jonathan Lis had a nice phrase for the Tory leadership battle and their relationship to business.

They want to fuck business [with their hardest Brexiter competition] while simultaneously making love to it, with their tax cuts.

 

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Hunt knows he's auditioning for the role of Lead Brexiteer, so he's mouthing all the right lines: no deal must be on the table, will of the people, price worth paying, we hold all the cards, EU will blink first, please vote for me old xenophobes. It's not a great strategy. He's trying to move to a position less extreme than Johnson but still tough enough to appeal to the base. You really need a clearer offer for that. He's just coming off as pandering just now.

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Yes, but I find the magical money tree that has grown on the charred soil of Brexit to be interesting. Apparently all the Brexit manure makes a pretty good fertilizer for that mythical tree.

I mean didn't Hunt just tell the fishery inudstry, don't worry, we wil pay for any incovenience caused by Brexit. That's on top of the NHS money, and the promised tax cuts, and increase on public spending. Talking about fucking business, while making love to it.

Just curious with how much nonsense, the two of them get away.

 

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14 hours ago, mormont said:

Hunt knows he's auditioning for the role of Lead Brexiteer, so he's mouthing all the right lines: no deal must be on the table, will of the people, price worth paying, we hold all the cards, EU will blink first, please vote for me old xenophobes. It's not a great strategy. He's trying to move to a position less extreme than Johnson but still tough enough to appeal to the base. You really need a clearer offer for that. He's just coming off as pandering just now.

Hunt does seem to have taken up just about every single Brexit position at one time or another.

9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes, but I find the magical money tree that has grown on the charred soil of Brexit to be interesting.

I think it's a magical money forest by now.

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On 6/29/2019 at 3:10 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

Given the speed with which a provisional agreement was reached since 2016 happened, it seems clear that one or other or both sides had a Mercosur / EU deal on an indefinite delay cycle, but with things coming to a head they quickly found points of agreement on most issues.

To go back to that.

I don't think Mercosur will pass in its current form. France will block it. I was secretly wondering, which farming lobby will push hardest against it.

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How Hedge Funds Gamed Brexit to Make Millions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-03-15/how-hedge-funds-gamed-brexit-to-make-millions-video

I used up my free article limit and got shut out of the paywall, but there's a 10 minutes video if you have the time.

It's pretty slow to get to the point, and the whole theme is obviously not a surprise to anyone, but they are effectively alleging Farage made two concession speeches just as the votes were starting to be counted while already aware the private polls had Leave as winning - just so his buddies could sell the pound at higher prices!

 

 

Edited by Ser Hedge

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/06/kinnock-says-corbyn-should-order-labour-to-back-may-brexit-deal

 

Something sensible from one portion of the Leave-supporting wing Labour at last. It only took 6 months! Now the question is will the WA deal get tabled again by BoJo at all? Wasn't it 'vassalage' or something? Realistically speaking after some initial mandatory posturing he will have to  I guess.

Not that I'm a Leaver, but at least it's the least harmful way out of this mess. Just stay in the backstop forever and we've got something like what Norway has and won't have to watch these Brexit Party buffoons prance around the European Parliament trolling everybody else any more.

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That's always been my fear, that the May deal is the best deal possible, so if it comes down to the May deal versus no deal, then the May deal is clearly preferable. The problem is that the no deal fanatics wanted to try to ensure no deal, so voted against it, and Remainers in Parliament felt opposing it might clear the road to Ref3 or a general election, so took that gamble, which does not seem to have paid off.

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Unless there is a binding vote preventing a no deal I imagine the remainers, who seem to be a majority of MPs but incapable of bringing themselves to defy the referendum result that was achieved under essentially demonstrated false pretenses, are going to be scared into finally voting the May deal through. So BoJo's first win as PM will be doing what May couldn't with her own plan. Hard Brexiters might be grumpy that they didn't get an absolute exit, but they'll take it, and they will be able to say they voted against the deal right to the end. The soft Brexiters will celebrate their victory against the odds, and the Remainers who capitulated will be blamed for everything bad that happens as a result of Brexit, because they failed to hold the line and make the Brexiters own the problems.

So, 30 Oct (or before) the May deal passes is my wager.

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Unless there is a binding vote preventing a no deal I imagine the remainers, who seem to be a majority of MPs but incapable of bringing themselves to defy the referendum result that was achieved under essentially demonstrated false pretenses, are going to be scared into finally voting the May deal through. So BoJo's first win as PM will be doing what May couldn't with her own plan. Hard Brexiters might be grumpy that they didn't get an absolute exit, but they'll take it, and they will be able to say they voted against the deal right to the end. The soft Brexiters will celebrate their victory against the odds, and the Remainers who capitulated will be blamed for everything bad that happens as a result of Brexit, because they failed to hold the line and make the Brexiters own the problems.

So, 30 Oct (or before) the May deal passes is my wager.

Unfortunately, that probably is the most likely scenario.

The only real challenger is that if we look like crashing out with no deal; then a vote of no confidence is held (Can anyone other than Corbyn officially call for one? Because he won't want to until after Brexit); Boris looses, and we go to the polls in a GE, with a more-or-less 20:20:20:20 split between BnP, Tory, Lib Dem & Labour, with Greens and the nationalists sharing the last 20% (Of course, with our electoral system a perfect five way split of the vote probably still comes close to giving 1 party overall contol in parliament...)

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11 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Unfortunately, that probably is the most likely scenario.

The only real challenger is that if we look like crashing out with no deal; then a vote of no confidence is held (Can anyone other than Corbyn officially call for one? Because he won't want to until after Brexit); Boris looses, and we go to the polls in a GE, with a more-or-less 20:20:20:20 split between BnP, Tory, Lib Dem & Labour, with Greens and the nationalists sharing the last 20% (Of course, with our electoral system a perfect five way split of the vote probably still comes close to giving 1 party overall contol in parliament...)

I don't see a particular reason why it is more likely to pass in October than it was in the past. If as many as 30 Tory MPs are willing to go to any lengths to stop no-deal then Johnson has no threat to use against Parliament to force them to swallow May's deal. 

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58 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I don't see a particular reason why it is more likely to pass in October than it was in the past. If as many as 30 Tory MPs are willing to go to any lengths to stop no-deal then Johnson has no threat to use against Parliament to force them to swallow May's deal. 

I think it would be hard for Boris to offer a vote on the current deal given that so much of his campaign has been built on opposing the deal (despite having previously voted for it). The Hard Brexiters would surely see this as a betrayal, and the DUP would almost certainly withdraw their support.

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