Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It may be unprecedented in our lifetimes (but only just; my maternal grandparents with both twelve when the pandemic of 1918-19 hit and had fairly vivid memories of it to share with me when I was a kid, which was not great back then but kind of comforting now), but the good thing is we have records and data to show how people coped and then recovered.

On the green front, yes, we could be in for a really good year on that front, but that won't mitigate the damage done by every other year, and certainly not if we just go back to business as normal afterwards. One positive is that governments and banks will looking for mass growth industries to invest in heavily in coming decades (as they did in computing in the last few) and renewable energy is by far the most reliable ticket.

My Maternal grandparents were 3 when the 1918 flu pandemic hit.  They were in Philadelphia, the largest outbreak area in the US.  

Everyone decended from them is lucky to be here.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

And I know I’m being the “negative Nancy”.  Just very worried today.

I’m hearing more people at a younger than expected age are being impacted by COVID-19.  Anyone else hearing similar reports.

[3CityApache]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m hearing more people at a younger than expected age are being impacted by COVID-19.  Anyone else hearing similar reports.

It was first reported the sixth victim of Covid-19 in Poland was a 27-years old woman. But it quickly turned out it was actually sepsa she got in the hospital after giving birth that killed her. Even though she was positive for Covid-19 as well.

[kairparavel]

On top of requiring teleconferencing, cancellation of visits to and from the office, and WFH for non production staff, my facility is starting split shifts next week with a 30 minute break between each to essentially get the first group out before the second groups come in. The theory being (though is it too late to do this split?) that if someone falls ill that shift will quarantine for 2 weeks while the other carries on. Breaks are split as well, so half becomes a quarter etc. Is it perfect? Of course not. Should we completely close? Probably but it's unrealistic until the governor makes a shelter in place order. 

There are no good answers at this point. 

[Werthead]

13 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

And I know I’m being the “negative Nancy”.  Just very worried today.

I’m hearing more people at a younger than expected age are being impacted by COVID-19.  Anyone else hearing similar reports.

Some odd reports there. Other countries seem to be holding to the pattern that younger people are much less at risk. UK deaths at 150 (and counting) and the youngest death so far was 45, from a massive underlying health condition. Some reports from China, Italy and the USA suggesting much more younger people seem to be badly hit than in other countries. Unclear why, although relative health/exercise levels may be to blame (which may explain the US but not China or Italy) and there's also some reports of a correlation (but not confirmed causation yet) between blood type and how hard the virus hits, with Type O being much less adversely affected. That may explain figures in China (where Type O is less common) but not in the USA.

The Italy figures may also be warped because of how centralised the outbreak has been in one particular region. The local hospitals are utterly overwhelmed so many of the young people who'd survive with some oxygen assistance have instead sadly passed away, whilst in the UK (at the moment) and many other places they'd have been saved. 

Also some early reports from a Chinese paper (based on mass testing in Wuhan) that people who catch the virus but are asymptomatic may be far, far higher than previously expected, which would push the fatality rate right down (not a good thing in the sense that thousands will still die and the isolation steps will still save thousands, but good in the sense that herd immunity should be instilled in the population much more quickly). It's probable that that will only be testable once the worst of the outbreak is over in each country. Some European doctors advising this is not matching what they're figures are showing, that most people reported as asymptomatic do go on to develop symptoms, just a few days later than most, but I'd assume the Chinese would have accounted for that, and the European picture is warped by the outbreak still being in the growth stage whilst the Chinese have had some distance and time to analyse the figures more calmly.

[Frey family reunion]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

And I know I’m being the “negative Nancy”.  Just very worried today.

I’m hearing more people at a younger than expected age are being impacted by COVID-19.  Anyone else hearing similar reports.

This is quite a frustrating discussion.  The issue isn't really a "micro" concern.  If you are young and healthy and get the virus, then you are most likely going to be ok. The danger is the greater rapid spread of the virus.  No one seriously thinks this virus isn't going to spread.  It's going to.  Everyone here will probably either come down with it or have a close relative or friend that comes down with it.  Eventually.  

The issue is how rapidly is this thing going to spread?  If we had the medical infrastructure in place to handle a large number of people getting this virus, than this wouldn't be that big of a deal.  But we don't.  And it is going to take a while before we get that in place.

As an aside, this is a danger of any nation in allowing their manufacturing sector to be out sourced to another country.  Because guess what?  When the shit hits the fan that country is going to act in their own self interest.

The real reason the mortality rate in Italy is so high, is that they don't have the medical resources to handle this.  And they can't rapidly manufacture the medical resources to handle this.  And they can't reach out to other countries to help them because all of the other countries are marshaling their resources to help their own people.

China's manufacturing sector is second to none in this world and no one else is even close.  China has a far greater ability to make what they need to lessen the impact of something like this.

[Larry of the Lawn]

20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How long did it take to “come back” from the Black Death?

Does it matter?

We're here now.  You're talking on the internet.  The village to village info grapevine probabaly suffered a setback during the Plague but now you have the collected knowledge* of mankind at your finger tips, or even at voice command.  

Put on some Mingus or the Beatles or something and partake in some comfort food or weed edibles or some strong booze, or if your really a 1%er, some hand sanitizer.

[Tywin et al.]

It’s so hilarious, the managers keep yelling at people to stay six feet apart, but then they all huddle up shoulder to shoulder calling us idiots.

I’m sure this is happening everywhere.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

As an aside, this is a danger of any nation in allowing their manufacturing sector to be out sourced to another country.  Because guess what?  When the shit hits the fan that country is going to act in their own self interest.

The real reason the mortality rate in Italy is so high, is that they don't have the medical resources to handle this.  And they can't rapidly manufacture the medical resources to handle this.  And they can't reach out to other countries to help them because all of the other countries are marshaling their resources to help their own people.

China's manufacturing sector is second to none in this world and no one else is even close.  China has a far greater ability to make what they need to lessen the impact of something like this.

True, although the horse bolted the stable on that score 30+ years ago. Moaning about Western manufacturing being lost to China in 2020 is pretty futile. As has been said all along, if Western customers wanted their goods manufactured in the West, they could have paid to do so and they refused in their overwhelming hundreds of millions, preparing to buy cheaper goods from Asia. There you go.

What is interesting is that China's manufacturing capacity is so mind-bogglingly enormous that, as the country starts to fully come back on-stream, they may become the Arsenal of Treatment (as compared to the USA's position as the Arsenal of Freedom during WWII), pumping out ventilation equipment and proper N95 masks on a colossal scale to help the rest of the planet. Since other countries can't spool up to that level quickly, we're going to be quite reliant on China for the forseeable future.

We do need to make sure China cracks down on open wet markets and installs some robust food hygiene standards ASAP, which to be fair I suspect they will, given the economic damage they've suffered as a result of this.

[Werthead]

Quote

 

How long did it take to “come back” from the Black Death?

 

Roughly 150 years for population and communication levels to return to pre-plague norms.

Although the Black Death was insane. It wiped out at least 20% and maybe closer to 50% of the entire population of Europe. No-one is expecting that from coronavirus, the quoted fatality rate (~1%) is from people who get the virus, not the entire population as a whole.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Does it matter?

We're here now.  You're talking on the internet.  The village to village info grapevine probabaly suffered a setback during the Plague but now you have the collected knowledge* of mankind at your finger tips, or even at voice command.  

Put on some Mingus or the Beatles or something and partake in some comfort food or weed edibles or some strong booze, or if your really a 1%er, some hand sanitizer.

If we are pushed back to the equivalent of the Middle Ages for two centuries as we “recover” yes, that matters.

[Tywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How long did it take to “come back” from the Black Death?

I would love to see a historical economist, if that’s even a thing, break down how the previously cited pandemics affected the economies of the time and how we can compare today to those times.

[Frey family reunion]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

True, although the horse bolted the stable on that score 30+ years ago. Moaning about Western manufacturing being lost to China in 2020 is pretty futile. As has been said all along, if Western customers wanted their goods manufactured in the West, they could have paid to do so and they refused in their overwhelming hundreds of millions, preparing to buy cheaper goods from Asia. There you go.

What is interesting is that China's manufacturing capacity is so mind-bogglingly enormous that, as the country starts to fully come back on-stream, they may become the Arsenal of Treatment (as compared to the USA's position as the Arsenal of Freedom during WWII), pumping out ventilation equipment and proper N95 masks on a colossal scale to help the rest of the planet. Since other countries can't spool up to that level quickly, we're going to be quite reliant on China for the forseeable future.

We do need to make sure China cracks down on open wet markets and installs some robust food hygiene standards ASAP, which to be fair I suspect they will, given the economic damage they've suffered as a result of this.

Maybe this will be a wake up call to the Western World, to start making serious steps towards regaining their manufacturing sector.  Because China is a shitty overlord to have to bend the knee to.

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If we are pushed back to the equivalent of the Middle Ages for two centuries as we “recover” yes, that matters.

Ok you might have to go without some luxury goods for awhile?  Or not remodel the kitchen?  Or miss some bill payments and ruin your credit?  These things suck but they are very easy to live with compared to say your average medieval standard of living.  

[Zorral]

Governor live: Effective Sunday: quarantine -- not "shelter in place." Nobody over 70 to go out, except alone, for exercise, must wear a mask when attempting to get groceries.  THERE ARE NO MASKS though. Everybody else except essential workers is supposed to stay in. No picnics in parks, nothing. This is mandatory, not voluntary.

The Saboteur in Chief to NY -- Drop Dead!

They won't even take de Blasio or Cuomo's calls.

We have the largest number of cases in the country. No masks, sanitizer or gloves available.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I would love to see a historical economist, if that’s even a thing, break down how the previously cited pandemics affected the economies of the time and how we can compare today to those times.

There's very few economic estimates that go back that far. This paper makes an attempt though. http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Working-Paper-206-Fouquet-and-Broadberry.pdf

GDP estimates for Italy, Holland, Spain, and England go back to 1300. You can see the massive hit that Italy especially took form the black death on page 5. But remember that the Black Death was far more deadly than Covid-19, and there were less tools to facilitate the economic recovery. It took more time for innovations and ideas to spread.

[Tywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Does it matter?

We're here now.  You're talking on the internet.  The village to village info grapevine probabaly suffered a setback during the Plague but now you have the collected knowledge* of mankind at your finger tips, or even at voice command.  

Put on some Mingus or the Beatles or something and partake in some comfort food or weed edibles or some strong booze, or if your really a 1%er, some hand sanitizer.

What happens if the cable and internet go down and no one wants to risk going out and fixing it?

Real questions that must be asked.

Then what happens when everyone freaks out about it? I know how I behave when it goes down for me for a few days, and I think I handle it better than most because I love to read. Most people don’t so that book learning thing these days.  

[Frey family reunion]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

What happens if the cable and internet go down and no one wants to risk going out and fixing it? 

Because no one is going to be afraid to go out and fix your internet.  

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

What happens if the cable and internet go down and no one wants to risk going out and fixing it?

Real questions that must be asked.

Then what happens when everyone freaks out about it? I know how I behave when it goes down for me for a few days, and I think I handle it better than most because I love to read. Most people don’t so that book learning thing these days.  

Fine it'll be like the conclusion of Cable Guy.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I would love to see a historical economist, if that’s even a thing, break down how the previously cited pandemics affected the economies of the time and how we can compare today to those times.

That sounds like a fascinating project.