Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
larrytheimp

Muh muh muh means tuh testing - Covid #6

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I know a lot of people are worried about the economic consequences, and as someone who survived a country-level mini-apocalypse (Bosnian war) I want to offer some encouragement.

First, economy will bounce back. It bounces back from everything - wars, plagues, natural disasters... Short-term may be bleak, but it will get better.

Second, failing businesses are not the end of the world. If (for example) every airline in the world went bankrupt today, airports, airplanes and pilots won't vanish into thin air - new airline companies would come into existence the moment demand picks up. Restaurant owners whose business fail because of the crisis still have the knowledge how to successfully run them in their heads, and they can start new restaurants once it passes. Rebuilding is hard but doable, and a lot of new things will be better than the old ones they replaced.

Third, on a personal, short-term level, keep in mind the difference between things you want and things you need, and make choices accordingly. What do people need? Shelter, clean water, 2000 calories a day, health care, and safety from violence. Anything else is an nice but optional extra. If you can spare more than you need, try to help others, and if you can't have what you need, don't be too proud to ask for help.

Stay safe, and look after your friends and family. People are the only ones that can't be replaced.

How will the magic spring back happen?  I’m really curious, could you please provide some detail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no magic in it Scot. This is not the worst disaster in the history of mankind, and even if it was, there was always bouncing back, sooner or later. There is only a question of when, how is really not that important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How will the magic spring back happen?  I’m really curious, could you please provide some detail.

If demand exists, businesses will form to fulfill that demand (with smaller or larger nudges from governments and private investors). Restaurants are failing now because no-one wants to eat out, but once the pandemic passes, people will want to eat out again.

If you want historical examples, look at the aftermath of both World Wars, Great Depression, American Civil War...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How will the magic spring back happen?  I’m really curious, could you please provide some detail.

Individual civilisations do collapse, it's true. But globally there has never not been several thriving civilisations, pretty much once agriculture became a thing. Coronavirus isn't an existential threat. Climate change is. Coronavirus might actually have a silver lining in its effect on climate change. A short term crisis could help us to achieve a much greater long term victory. Though if in 2 years or so we go back to BAU with the fossil fuel burning it could be an opportunity lost.

Some countries might be functionally wiped out by this, but most countries will get back on an even keel maybe a year or so after a vaccine, or effective antiviral treatment has been developed.

The good thing is governments realised that they need to spend their way through this problem to mitigate the worst economic effects. They should have spent their way through the GFC too, but too many countries bought into the austerity BS which made the GFC worse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

Individual civilisations do collapse, it's true. But globally there has never not been several thriving civilisations, pretty much once agriculture became a thing. Coronavirus isn't an existential threat. Climate change is. Coronavirus might actually have a silver lining in its effect on climate change. A short term crisis could help us to achieve a much greater long term victory. Though if in 2 years or so we go back to BAU with the fossil fuel burning it could be an opportunity lost.

Some countries might be functionally wiped out by this, but most countries will get back on an even keel maybe a year or so after a vaccine, or effective antiviral treatment has been developed.

The good thing is governments realised that they need to spend their way through this problem to mitigate the worst economic effects. They should have spent their way through the GFC too, but too many countries bought into the austerity BS which made the GFC worse.

I appreciate the big picture.  However, in a tidal wave it is difficult to take comfort from the big picture that society will recover when in the small picture you are being washed out by the tide.  

ETA:

Optimism is very, challenging, right now.  But I, sincerely, appreciate the efforts at optimism.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How will the magic spring back happen?  I’m really curious, could you please provide some detail.

Hey, look at the plus side, my dream of a world without money is rapidly approaching, because we’re going to have to spend TRILLIONS to prevent an economic collapse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Hey, look at the plus side, my dream of a world without money is rapidly approaching, because we’re going to have to spend TRILLIONS to prevent an economic collapse.

Maybe.  What do you think could replace $ ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hey, look at the plus side, my dream of a world without money is rapidly approaching, because we’re going to have to spend TRILLIONS to prevent an economic collapse.

Doubtful. Demand has fallen so much that even with "the money printer go brr" it doesn't look like inflation is going to be an issue. Scarcity will make some products get more expensive, but that's a different issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Maybe.  What do you think could replace $ ?

Depends on the scenario. Are we talking about a rational response or a realistic one? Very different outcomes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scot, from the last thread. There have been many man made disasters that have been studied for a long time. Think of any war, siege or occupation by a foreign power in societies in Europe, Asia, or Africa. People endure and outlast and help each other through the tribulations and trials.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Scot, from the last thread. There have been many man made disasters that have been studied for a long time. Think of any war, siege or occupation by a foreign power in societies in Europe, Asia, or Africa. People endure and outlast and help each other through the tribulations and trials.

What of those catastrophes has been global as this is global.  During WWII the US was largely insulated from direct danger of bombing or other violent action.  That allowed it to be the breadbasket of the world while everyone else fought.  
 

COVID-19 is everywhere at the same time.

:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What of those catastrophes has been global as this is global.  During WWII the US was largely insulated from direct danger of bombing or other violent action.  That allowed it to be the breadbasket of the world while everyone else fought.  
 

COVID-19 is everywhere at the same time.

:(

The Black Plague was "global" for Europe, in that pretty much everywhere that Europeans interacted with was affected by it. They still came back from it, and that was a far more deadly plague than Covid-19.

It even had the upshot of significantly improving wages and working conditions, since labor became so valuable. And food and land became so cheap that many more people could afford both, contributing to the end of the feudal system.

Even the worst disasters can be recovered from.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What of those catastrophes has been global as this is global.  During WWII the US was largely insulated from direct danger of bombing or other violent action.  That allowed it to be the breadbasket of the world while everyone else fought.  
 

COVID-19 is everywhere at the same time.

:(

Spanish flu was everywhere at the same time, and most estimates of its mortality rate show that it was worse than the Covid-19. None of this is unprecedented.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All my coronavirus feelings: 

- So I’ve stopped following the news obsessively and I have stopped being shocked at the new numbers each day. Try to see it as the natural curve of change, it’s inevitable and it’ll only get worse before it gets better. 
- Even though I’m doing my best to put faith into the government and the authorities that they have the situation in hand as much as possible, I help but feel like we aren’t doing enough, as a country, as individuals
- Even though I’m trying to rationalize the situation as best as I can, the constant stress just won’t go away. It affects my sleeping, my focus, my everyday productivity and energy levels. 
- For this reason it’s hard to concentrate on anything but mundane physical tasks like cleaning the coffee machine (even though we’ll run out of capsules in days) 
- And while I know this time could be utilized to slow down, look within and find the meaning of life, I find it difficult to reach that state of mind, my entire body is clenched in anxiety and the periods of time when I’m able to step out of that are short and scarce. 
- I also experience an odd sense of guilt which prevents me from doing any leisure activity, I haven’t watched a film or netflix for almost a week or touched the book I’m reading. Somehow I feel like it’s unfair, unethical or irresponsible to not think about the virus or food or livelihood all the time. 
- I feel the same way about my surroundings. I want to rearrange, declutter and sort out the room I’m staying in, because changing your environment is good for your mental health. But I feel unable to commit to the task as it would also mean the end of my illusion that all this is temporary. 
- I grieve for my previous way of life, my goals, I miss my city flat, I’m scared for my  country and my loved ones. 
- I’m angry with the people who refuse to stay home or take it lightly and I’m resentful of the media for the panic-mongering and the lack of positivity
- I sympathize with all the cohorts who are affected in different ways
- I’m incredibly grateful and humbled that I’m fortunate and privileged enough to not be in dire situation like millions already are, that I don’t need to worry about my livelihood on the short term, that I’m one of the adult cohorts who are the least threatened by the virus and manageable affected by its economic impact. That I have a background and a support system which enables me to have several back-up plans no matter how uncomfortable or difficult they may be to implement.
- I am in awe of the strength and courage of everybody who is dealing with a more severe situation than my own. Because I know it is difficult enough for me as it is emotionally and I can’t imagine what people with small children or sick family members or health issues or Immediate financial difficulties must be going through right now. 
- I am humbled and slightly frightened by the power or nature and the wake up call it’s giving humanity
- overall I just feel more vulnerable and helpless than at any point in my not so long life so far, and I’m trying to have faith and believe that we’ll come out of this stronger and wiser and more conscious of how incredibly good and easy lives we have

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Spanish flu was everywhere at the same time, and most estimates of its mortality rate show that it was worse than the Covid-19. None of this is unprecedented.

It may be unprecedented in our lifetimes (but only just; my maternal grandparents with both twelve when the pandemic of 1918-19 hit and had fairly vivid memories of it to share with me when I was a kid, which was not great back then but kind of comforting now), but the good thing is we have records and data to show how people coped and then recovered.

On the green front, yes, we could be in for a really good year on that front, but that won't mitigate the damage done by every other year, and certainly not if we just go back to business as normal afterwards. One positive is that governments and banks will looking for mass growth industries to invest in heavily in coming decades (as they did in computing in the last few) and renewable energy is by far the most reliable ticket.

Edited by Werthead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the borders of Belgian just got semi-closed - everything we do here is a kind of semi B): all non-essential travel to Belgium is forbidden. 

Thank, god, it was kind of discriminatory Belgians could only for the essential things leave their houses and could not travel abroad but people from Netherlands kept entering Belgium for cycling :huh: when they are trying the weird herd immunity thing. At the same moment the PM of the Netherlands said he want to keep the borders open but he didn't take account our inhabitant of the Cremlin :P - IMO the last competent minister of this authoritarian Belgian government.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Fez said:

The Black Plague was "global" for Europe, in that pretty much everywhere that Europeans interacted with was affected by it. They still came back from it, and that was a far more deadly plague than Covid-19.

It even had the upshot of significantly improving wages and working conditions, since labor became so valuable. And food and land became so cheap that many more people could afford both, contributing to the end of the feudal system.

Even the worst disasters can be recovered from.

How long did it take to “come back” from the Black Death?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...