The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[frenin]

8 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: Barristan - he may know more than he has said but I still think his general thoughts on Rhaegar mirror what other people have said.  RE: lovestruck prince - when did Martin say this? I would be interested.

But they are leaving more tho.

 

 

8 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: Lyanna and Ashara - I believe they were called to be a part of something greater, part of which involved giving birth to children that could help prevent the Others from reaching and destroying the kingdom (to clarify a point that I made earlier and was rightfully called out on, I don't think they were called to be solely incubators/pregnant women.) Lyanna would have grown up on Northern stories and would have skin the in the game (worry for her people).  Plus, being part of a quest to save humanity and given a choice about whether to involve themselves in it sounds correct to her personality.  Likewise, the Dayne's are also descendents from the First Men, and it is likely that Dawn is Lightbringer, so it is possible that she, too, felt this same call.

Yeah but they aren't relevant in your theory right?? Whatever you think the fellowship was about is quite clear that neither Lord Dayne, nor Robert or if the Starks would be too happy about it. And even when you may say that Ashara was a minor  corcern... Lyanna clearly wasn't. So, why not pick quite literally any random girl from the streets or a minor  noble girl?? I'm sure than more than one landed knight would let Rhaegar conceive the messiah with their daughters...history tells us that even highlords as big as the Blackwoods and Brackens may be willing. Why choose the one with the red flags on her when there about a million choices.

[St Daga]

On 4/23/2020 at 10:38 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

But we DO know that she was bedridden after Rhaenys, which is enough information to know that it would be dangerous.

While we don't know any details except that she did have rest for 6 months after her first delivery, we don't really know why? We don't have any hints that her pregnancies were difficult, which lead me to think it's a problem with the delivery. A bad tear, or perhaps great blood loss, but those are educated guesses on my part.

 

On 4/23/2020 at 10:38 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

He is not doing this wantonly (like Aegon IV) and I am not ruling out polygamy. So, these children are not necessarily bastards. This is an honest belief that he is trying to save humanity (again, totally different than Aegon IV)

For all we know, Aegon IV might have been trying to build a mystical fleet of special children too. And he did legitimize all his bastards, not just the great bastards. I don't see any reason to suspect polygamy with Rhaegar, but he might have planned to legitimize his bastard children, although I don't know if that really matters if you are supposed to save the world from some ice zombie danger. Right now, we are speculating that Rhaegar even know about the Other's. We really don't have any idea what he read in those darn scrolls, only that whatever it was prompted him to pick up a sword and start training.

 

On 4/23/2020 at 10:38 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

To clarify, I am not saying that pregnancy is the end of her involvement with this whole thing, but a part of it.

But it's a hugely important part, even if it wasn't all. For both Ashara and Lyanna.  I still don't know if I think this fits what we know of Lyanna, but I suppose it's possible. Granted, most women in a medieval or feudal setting are valued for the children they can produce (usually in marriage) along with marriage alliances, but we have no reason to think that Rhaegar married either of these women. If he is somehow emulated Aegon the Conqueror's father, Aerion, who (probably) had a bastard son who was Orys Baratheon, then maybe this bastard is key.  IF that was something on Rhaegar's mind, putting himself in Aerion's role, to not only produce his own third head, as well as someone who could serve as a loyal hand and battle commander, then perhaps he tried to produce a bastard for that reason? This story seems to be a series of parallel's and echoes, so this might work. However, Orys just as easily could have been Aegon's mother, Valaena Velaryon's bastard as well, which could put a whole different slant on Rhaegar's thinking. And the only reason I am even looking to Aegon the Conqueror for inspiration is because it seems like Rhaegar was possibly naming his own children to honor or emulate Aegon I and his sisters.

[St Daga]

20 hours ago, corbon said:

What, with Cersei?
I don/t think thats fair. While we might accept 'going to far', remember in the cultural paradigm he's just a husband seeking his rights - and frankly, while I don't agree with non-consensual sex even within the marriage bed, both parties do have rights and responsibilities and Cersei was deliberately avoiding hers and abrogating his. This needs to be sorted out in other ways, but this is not the same thing as Robert forcing himself on an unwilling woman - he has a contract with Cersei which by definition includes her being willing to have sex, some time at least. 

The point I was making doesn't have anything to do with Cersei's role or Robert's rights in his marriage, it is that this behavior seems to be tied to Robert only when he was drinking, not when he was sober. So he clearly can make different choices, based on his beer goggles, which I suppose can happen to us all. 

 

21 hours ago, corbon said:

Right, so its not normal. 

Well, I am not the only child like this in the world, so it's not abnormal behavior. It's just different than what you perceive a child should act like, I guess.

 

21 hours ago, corbon said:

Note also we aren't ever told Allyria is a child (and indeed its possible she is not). She is merely presented to us as Ashara's sister - thus one would assume an adult source (given Ashara would be around/almost 40 by now - late 30s it seems, thanks to an SSM putting her in her 30s) with a firsthand connection to the actual sources. We have to work out for ourselves that our initial assumptions about this presentation are likely untrue and its likely she is a child with no connection to the actual sources.

No, Allyria's age is left vague. But Beric is 18 when they are betrothed, yet they are not allowed to marry yet. My thoughts are because Allyria is too young to marry, perhaps she hasn't even flowered yet. Otherwise, why not marry? Sansa and Joffrey were going to marry as soon as she flowered, That seems to be something that we do see in Westeros. Now, if you want to think that Allyria is 30 and Beric is 18 and they are still not getting married, that's fine with me. I think she is too young to marry.

 

21 hours ago, corbon said:

 

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Edric's story is a bit weird anyway, speaking of Wylla as Jon's mother, but at the same time he talks about he Ned and Ashara were in love. Okay, so Ned loves Ashara but has a baby with Wylla? Doesn't seem like Ned.

Its clearly not. But Ned is just a distant name to Edric. He doesn't know how un-Ned this story is, doesn't have any reason to doubt it.

This would clearly be unusual story, no matter how well you do or don't know some man, to talk about this man and some woman (your aunt) being desperately in love but that man having a bastard with another person who lives in the same household as the woman n(your aunt) that he is supposed to be madly in love with. I think this should stand out to Edric as odd, but then again, he was raised in Dorne and the do some more open than that rest of Westeros in the case of amorous relationships.

 

21 hours ago, corbon said:

Sure, Cersi's words hold some truth. But she's just throwing scattergun theories. There doesn't need to a 'clue' in each. All of them come simply from the fact that Ned went south without a bastard and came back with a bastard. There has to be a mother, somewhere, somehow, and its clearly not an honourable situation or he wouldn't be so mysterious about it.

Agreed on the bolded, but as the rest, I think GRRM is crafty enough to plant his clues in well scattered places. We just see different clues in the spatter.

 

21 hours ago, corbon said:

Its possible. Frankly I think brothels and holdfasts are utterly irrelevant to Jons Snow's mother story. Every word GRRM writes has a reason, sure, but one of the reasons is realism and veracity. If Cersei's going to scattergun accusations at him, most of them are going to be complete misses and she might get some partial hits. Thats what scattergunning is like.

On the bolded, I disagree. But that's okay. Agree to disagree. 

 

[Lady Rhodes]

22 hours ago, corbon said:

I guess what I'm saying in respect to your theory that I think the 'fellowship' was formed much later - at least the part dedicated to the 3 heads of the dragon was.

When would you suggest that the fellowship was formed?

19 hours ago, corbon said:

One thing I have bit of a problem with is that Rhaegar clearly thought he was going to win vs Robert and there therefore wasn't any huge need to hide secret kids from multiple mothers.

This is an interesting counterpoint. I will have to ponder.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

Its a question I guess of summing up relative values.
What rates more highly? Meera's symbolic story-telling style? Or Elia's pregnancy timings and ability to risk travel?
I don't know for sure, but I guess I lean towards Elia's issues.

This is a good summarization of the debate, and, needless to say, I agree with you on Elia's issues.

 

[Lady Rhodes]

19 hours ago, frenin said:

Yeah but they aren't relevant in your theory right??

I see your point - why not choose any girl to fulfill the three heads.  My thoughts are that this is similar to the prophecy in Harry Potter, where both Harry and Neville met the criteria of the prophecy. What mattered was Voldemort's choice. So, while other girls certainly could have met the criteria, it was Rhaegar's choice that makes them significant. Why did he choose them? Maybe they were easily persuadable? Maybe he admired Lyanna's sense of spirit and adventure. Why does anyone choose anyone?

@St Daga 

RE: Childbirth - We do have details, however, from numerous sources (Oberyn, Doran, Barristan) that Elia was frail to begin with. Even healthy people can have serious complications, so I think that it is relevant that she was not necessarily healthy to begin with.

RE: And bastard makes four - Very interesting thought. Must ponder.

RE: The Others and the damned scrolls - He read something that created a deep sense of duty, beyond Kingship. Just thought of this now, but in Summerhall, would most of the scrolls be of Valyrian origin? Did the scrolls he read originate from Summerhall? 

RE: Lyanna and Ashara's roles - Birthing the children was important, but who knows what else could have been involved? Think about the issues the Night's Watch, Stannis and company is having already - getting people to take the threat seriously, etc. This would be a mass media campaign - first getting people to believe it, then preparing and training everyone. Can you imagine the undertaking?

 

 

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I see your point - why not choose any girl to fulfill the three heads.  My thoughts are that this is similar to the prophecy in Harry Potter, where both Harry and Neville met the criteria of the prophecy. What mattered was Voldemort's choice. So, while other girls certainly could have met the criteria, it was Rhaegar's choice that makes them significant. Why did he choose them? Maybe they were easily persuadable? Maybe he admired Lyanna's sense of spirit and adventure. Why does anyone choose anyone?

Well, when choosing someone carries  important geopolitical consequences, one might want to give it two thoughts with the pillow.

I find hard to believe that Lyanna was the easiest pick and an irrelevant mill daughter or  the daughter of Lord Webber wasn't. Unless ofc he lost sight of the terrenal, that may be too. But i do like your theory, i've never been a fan of Tolkien but it's clear that Martin drinks from him a lot.

[SFDanny]

There is too much to respond to in this thread in great detail, but let me just say again, I think it makes sense for attentive readers to look for the many and various homages Martin is famous for in his tributes to other authors. Certainly that includes Tolkien, but as I said in beginning of this discussion that doesn't make it correct to just overlay a template and say what Tolkien did with the fellowship of the nine walkers can be translated into Rhaegar's inner circle of prophecy. If one needs to look for such a parallel it most closely exists in the journey of Bran, Meera, Jojen, and Hodor to find the three-eyed crow. Indeed the homage to Tolkien is quite clear in the meeting of Sam with Bran's company. It is straight up "Pippin in Moria" territory.

No, the people Rhaegar engages with, or whom we can speculate he does so, are not a secret cabal. That exists, I'm sure, in the political struggle Rhaegar wages against his father, but it is not the same. One doesn't build a political movement to oust a mad king by telling potential supporters that you are the prince of prophecy, born to save the world. Nor that your son is. Even in Martin's world that is wacky territory and only likely to inspire comparison of Father and son that won't help Rhaegar's cause.

Rhaegar is a student of prophecy, and he consults with other such students. We know this includes Maester Aemon and, because she is so intimately involved in the prophecy, it also includes Elia. But before we start including others we should remember a few facts. While it is true Elia has a long recovery from Rhaenys birth, it is not true that we know she can have no more children until after Aegon's birth. We also know that Rhaegar believed he was the prince of the prophecy until he reflects on the fact there was a comet in the sky on the night of Aegon's conception. We know this because Aemon tells us so. Which makes the idea that Rhaegar was out recruiting Ashara and Lyanna to be the mothers of his children during this time fairly ridiculous. If we assume that Rhaegar is out trying to find a new mother for his children when he travels the Riverlands, I think we miss most of the story Martin is telling us. There are multiple layers to be sure, but political motives, personal attachments, and prophetic understandings all have to be look at and seen for how they intertwine with each other in Rhaegar's motivations. Which also must include the basic character of the man.

My assumption here is that when Rhaegar and his six companions set off into the Riverlands in late 281 AC he is looking for guidance. He is looking for that guidance because his understanding of prophecy has shifted radically and he needs help in understanding the new reality that Elia can have no more children, or that if she does she will likely die. We know this is when he writes Aemon telling of his changing understanding of the prophecy to believing Aegon is the promised prince and not Rhaegar himself. That is why I think he also goes to find the Ghost of High Heart. He knows the role she has played in the marriage of this father and mother, and it is logical to go back to her and ask her for guidance. I don't see anything to suggest he was hunting for Lyanna.

As I said, I think his finding of Lyanna is a "chance meeting" not a planned one. I've also tried to make it clear I think this "abduction" is in reality a rescue. Not a kidnapping or an elopement, but a rescue from a marriage Lyanna doesn't want to Robert. The attraction of Rhaegar and Lyanna almost certainly goes back to Harrenhal, but that doesn't mean they have been planning this since then. It certainly doesn't mean Rhaegar has convinced Lyanna to be the mother of his "third head of the dragon" in order to fulfill a strange prophecy she has never probably heard of before.

@Lady Rhodes I should be upfront that I find the idea Daenerys isn't really who she says she is as nothing more than poorly constructed fan theories built on nothing of substance. It takes one real clue - the unusual nature of a lemon tree in Braavos - and builds in baby switches, and conspiracies that not only we have no evidence to support, but are mostly disproved. The lemon tree tells us early on, what we know later from the existence of the marriage pact, that the Martells had a continuing interest in supporting the Targaryens-in-exile and in putting Viserys back on the Iron Throne. The existence of the tree in Braavos quite likely comes from Prince Oberyn's visit to Braavos when he signs the marriage pact, and is a symbol of Dornish support. Nothing more is needed to explain the tree or Martin's response to a question about its unusual nature. No secret Ashara babies. No baby switching. Nada.

As to  Elia traveling while pregnant with Aegon, let me say a few things. We know Rhaegar, Elia, and Rhaenys have removed themselves from Aerys's court and taken themselves to Dragonstone. When one travels from Dragonstone it necessitates traveling by ship for at least part of the journey. A trip from Dragonstone to Harrenhal can indeed be done mostly by ship. It doesn't have to mean a stop in King's Landing and a two week journey by land to Harrenhal. It likely means a voyage from Dragonstone to Saltpans as the closest port city we know. Perhaps up river to Lord Harroway's Town. We are not then talking about a prolonged jarring trip by horse or carriage to the tourney. If necessary, we know from Illyrio and Tyrion's travel to see Griff's party it can be done by palanquin over long distances. Can a woman travel during late pregnancy? Yes. There is no doubt about it. Would a maester be able to stop Elia if she and Rhaegar wanted her to? Not likely.

Why would Elia and Rhaegar want her at the tourney? Because she is a powerful symbol of support for Rhaegar's cause. Not only a symbol, but a woman who can influence others, particularly other women, but not only them, who are in attendance at the tourney. The tourney can only be understood if we keep in mind its highly political nature, and that means Rhaegar wants every bit of Dornish support on display that he can show. That includes Prince Oberyn, Prince Lewyn, the Daynes, and of course Elia.

Just how along is Elia in her pregnancy with Aegon? Like most things we are talking about a range of possibilities. We know Rhaegar and Elia are wed in 280 AC. We know Rhaenys is also born in 280 AC, which, if we assume a full term pregnancy and conception after marriage, means that we can place Rhaenys's birth in the last three months of 280. If we assume a full six months of rest before Aegon is conceived we get anywhere from the third month to the sixth month of 281 for Aegon's conception. But given that Aegon is born in the late part of the twelfth month of 281 AC we can assume a conception date of around the third month of 281 AC and assume a birth of Rhaenys in about the ninth month of 280 AC. This assumes a full term pregnancy for Aegon with his birth in the twelfth month. It also means a first month of 280 AC for the wedding of Rhaegar and Elia. All of these factors fit what we know, but what we can't be sure of is just when does the "less than two turns" of the false spring and the tourney fall.

While I believe the tourney falls within the false spring, mostly because of Meera's tale, which I find highly credible, that does not mean - as @corbon rightly points out - it has to take place right before Aegon is born. He's right about the term "vengeance" not meaning speed. Winter sets in a extreme way, but how long that takes to develop as it is described in TWoI&F is open to a range of possibilities. If we are worried about a pregnancy stopping Elia from going to the tourney, that then gives us a range of the third month (unlikely) to the twelfth month (even more unlikely) for the tourney to take place. A mid  part of that range would place Elia mid way through her pregnancy. A little earlier would move it to the time in which a pregnancy just starts to show. Pick your part of the range, but I don't find anything that rules out Elia's participation in the tourney. Again, that is against every good reason we expect she would, and of course we know she did.

Let me end this post by saying why I find Meera's tale so credible. First, when we read the story we should understand Meera is sixteen years old. A woman grown as the saying goes, or should. She is the de facto leader of the party. She is the person who keeps them alive and going. While she tells the tale to Bran in the form of fable from long ago, it is evident to the reader it is telling the tale of the Harrenhal tourney in which Meera's father plays the central role of the "crannogman" and Bran's father, aunt and uncles play the roles of the wolves. This is not a fable. This not a child's bed time story. This is family history told over and over to Meera that she knows quite well. Whether Howland started this tale in this way, or told a more detailed version to her it doesn't matter because it is clear this story is important to Meera and she is shocked to learn Bran has never heard it before. Meera isn't just making up a story to entertain Bran. This is vital history for the Reeds. So, when she tells us it is spring when the crannogman arrives at Harrenhal, I think we can be sure that is the way Howland told her this story, and that is an important part of it. Moreover it fits. It fits Ned's description of his ride to the tourney at eighteen. It fits Jaime having turned fifteen. These both are early name days as reflected in the ages we know at the welcoming feast.

 

[kissdbyfire]

Great post, @SFDanny. I agree completely. I will add one little thing here. 

15 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

My assumption here is that when Rhaegar and his six companions set off into the Riverlands in late 281 AC he is looking for guidance. He is looking for that guidance because his understanding of prophecy has shifted radically and he needs help in understanding the new reality that Elia can have no more children, or that if she does she will likely die. We know this is when he writes Aemon telling of his changing understanding of the prophecy to believing Aegon is the promised prince and not Rhaegar himself. That is why I think he also goes to find the Ghost of High Heart. He knows the role she has played in the marriage of this father and mother, and it is logical to go back to her and ask her for guidance. I don't see anything to suggest he was hunting for Lyanna.

I think there may have been one more reason for Rhaegar to change his mind about being the PtwP. At this point Viserys is 5 or 6 years old, and Rhaella has had several miscarriages/stillborns by then. For Rhaegar to be the PtwP, given his understanding of the prophecy and the three heads of the dragon, Aerys and Rhaella would have to have another child, something that might have looked unlikely at that point. Maybe it was a lightbulb moment for Rhaegar. But I think it makes sense, especially if we think about his concern over the third head. Once he was convinced Aegon must be the PtwP and that Elia wouldn’t have been able to give him more children, he would certainly need to look for it elsewhere. But... what about before, when he still believed he was the prince of the prophecy? I’m not sure I explained my ideas well. I will try again later if this reads as a jumbled mess.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

54 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Let me end this post by saying why I find Meera's tale so credible. First, when we read the story we should understand Meera is sixteen years old. A woman grown as the saying goes, or should. She is the de facto leader of the party. She is the person who keeps them alive and going. While she tells the tale to Bran in the form of fable from long ago, it is evident to the reader it is telling the tale of the Harrenhal tourney in which Meera's father plays the central role of the "crannogman" and Bran's father, aunt and uncles play the roles of the wolves. This is not a fable. This not a child's bed time story. This is family history told over and over to Meera that she knows quite well. Whether Howland started this tale in this way, or told a more detailed version to her it doesn't matter because it is clear this story is important to Meera and she is shocked to learn Bran has never heard it before. Meera isn't just making up a story to entertain Bran. This is vital history for the Reeds. So, when she tells us it is spring when the crannogman arrives at Harrenhal, I think we can be sure that is the way Howland told her this story, and that is an important part of it. Moreover it fits. It fits Ned's description of his ride to the tourney at eighteen. It fits Jaime having turned fifteen. These both are early name days as reflected in the ages we know at the welcoming feast.

There's more about this and the timeline because I haven't seen this quoted yet;

"They are," she agreed, but said no more about them. "All that winter the crannogman stayed on the isle, but when the spring broke he heard the wide world calling and knew the time had come to leave." (Bran II, ASoS 24)

Howland spent all that winter on the Isle of Faces. Winter lasted almost two years we're told in TWoIaF. He left when spring broke. 

This is a very clear timeline. 

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Well, when choosing someone carries  important geopolitical consequences, one might want to give it two thoughts with the pillow.

I find hard to believe that Lyanna was the easiest pick and an irrelevant mill daughter or  the daughter of Lord Webber wasn't. Unless ofc he lost sight of the terrenal, that may be too. But i do like your theory, i've never been a fan of Tolkien but it's clear that Martin drinks from him a lot.

Ha! Not saying you are wrong re: giving it two thoughts with the pillow.  Actually, I think ASOIAF could be summed up with that line: Best sleep on that thought, eh?

My honest guess is that there was something about a "daughter" of the First Men, which both Lyanna and Ashara would fit the bill for, yet Elia would not. Maybe the heads correspond to different cultures that permeate Westeros: First Men, Andals, Rhoynar, Valyrian?

RE Tolkien: I like Tolkien, have been a fan of the story, and read Fellowship for my senior term paper in highschool.  But I find the writing dry. Multiple pages talking about dew on grass seems pointless to me. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

One doesn't build a political movement to oust a mad king by telling potential supporters that you are the prince of prophecy, born to save the world. Nor that your son is. Even in Martin's world that is wacky territory and only likely to inspire comparison of Father and son that won't help Rhaegar's cause.

Perhaps this is the reason for keeping it secret? It would undermine his credibility on both fronts: dealing with a deteriorating Aerys and the Others threat.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Which makes the idea that Rhaegar was out recruiting Ashara and Lyanna to be the mothers of his children during this time fairly ridiculous. If we assume that Rhaegar is out trying to find a new mother for his children when he travels the Riverlands, I think we miss most of the story Martin is telling us. There are multiple layers to be sure, but political motives, personal attachments, and prophetic understandings all have to be look at and seen for how they intertwine with each other in Rhaegar's motivations. Which also must include the basic character of the man.

I am willing to adjust my timeline and many aspects, hence my posting of this and a request for discussion and critique.  But I don't think it is accurate to dismiss the idea of a Fellowship as ridiculous.  You are absolutely correct that there are multiple motives, personal attachments, and prophetic understandings going on here and they need to be adequately accounted for. Your critique on the timeline is valid, and you have given me some things to ponder in that regard. But I think that I have spoken clearly, with abundant evidence, that Rhaegar's character is one of a deep sense of duty and sacrifice, not of cruelty, maliciousness, or wanton selfishness.  You speak as though we are far apart on those topics, and I don't believe we are. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

I should be upfront that I find the idea Daenerys isn't really who she says she is as nothing more than poorly constructed fan theories built on nothing of substance. It takes one real clue - the unusual nature of a lemon tree in Braavos - and builds in baby switches, and conspiracies that not only we have no evidence to support, but are mostly disproved. The lemon tree tells us early on, what we know later from the existence of the marriage pact, that the Martells had a continuing interest in supporting the Targaryens-in-exile and in putting Viserys back on the Iron Throne. The existence of the tree in Braavos quite likely comes from Prince Oberyn's visit to Braavos when he signs the marriage pact, and is a symbol of Dornish support. Nothing more is needed to explain the tree or Martin's response to a question about its unusual nature. No secret Ashara babies. No baby switching. Nada.

Daenerys is definitely the daughter of a dragon, and honestly, I can see this part of my theory panning out. I will readily admit it.  Yet I think Barristan's note about Dany having Ashara's eyes is telling.  But I 100% do not agree about the lemon tree. I would bet money she was raised in Dorne.  The inclusion of the lemontree as a symbol for the pact and connection with Dorne is fine provided that the object of the symbol (the actual lemontree) works in the setting, which this does not. Yes, technically a lemon tree could be grown there with a green house of some sort, but if that was the case, I think GRRM could have simply said, "no." 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Would a maester be able to stop Elia if she and Rhaegar wanted her to? Not likely.

I don't think either of them would have wanted her to travel, either.  Look, pregnant women travel. No one, least of all me, is saying that isn't a common occurrence. But I feel you are dismissing multiple references to her health, the health of her previous pregnancy, and treating her like a normal situation, which she was not. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Why would Elia and Rhaegar want her at the tourney? Because she is a powerful symbol of support for Rhaegar's cause. Not only a symbol, but a woman who can influence others, particularly other women, but not only them, who are in attendance at the tourney. The tourney can only be understood if we keep in mind its highly political nature, and that means Rhaegar wants every bit of Dornish support on display that he can show. That includes Prince Oberyn, Prince Lewyn, the Daynes, and of course Elia.

Agreed.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

why I find Meera's tale so credible

I actually do as well. I just differ on the winter returning with a vengeance, but you already addressed that with corbon.

 

[frenin]

12 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

My honest guess is that there was something about a "daughter" of the First Men, which both Lyanna and Ashara would fit the bill for, yet Elia would not. Maybe the heads correspond to different cultures that permeate Westeros: First Men, Andals, Rhoynar, Valyrian?

Sure but the Starks and Daynes aren't the only first men descendants in Westeros... I mean, Westeros is full of them, it seems like without a driving force without his decision, why Lyanna specifically and no other, it seems more rash than calculated. About Tolkien, i've seen the movies like everybody but that's about it but again, Martin is a huge fan so it would no be surprising if you are onto something.

[Lady Rhodes]

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

Sure but the Starks and Daynes aren't the only first men descendants in Westeros... I mean, Westeros is full of them, it seems like without a driving force without his decision, why Lyanna specifically and no other, it seems more rash than calculated. About Tolkien, i've seen the movies like everybody but that's about it but again, Martin is a huge fan so it would no be surprising if you are onto something.

I am not sure. After this discussion, I have found a few parts of my theory need revised. Most clearly, I think Lyanna was brought in after the Harrenhal tourney, and my guess is she was brought in because of them bearing witness to her general disposition. A telling quote in Meera’s story is that Rhaegar sang a song that made the wolf maid cry and a black brother asked to people to join the nights watch. The first time reading, I read it as a sequence of events. Now I read them as a sequence of connected events - the song is tied to the Watch’s call for recruits, which bears the question - why did it make Lyanna cry?

[corbon]

6 hours ago, St Daga said:

Well, I am not the only child like this in the world, so it's not abnormal behavior. It's just different than what you perceive a child should act like, I guess.

Not should. Just most do. Even your example or Arya didn't actuallly support the idea.

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No, Allyria's age is left vague. But Beric is 18 when they are betrothed, yet they are not allowed to marry yet. My thoughts are because Allyria is too young to marry, perhaps she hasn't even flowered yet. Otherwise, why not marry? Sansa and Joffrey were going to marry as soon as she flowered, That seems to be something that we do see in Westeros. Now, if you want to think that Allyria is 30 and Beric is 18 and they are still not getting married, that's fine with me. I think she is too young to marry.

Oh agreed, absolutely. The point I was trying to make is that she wasn't presented to us as so young, we had to work that out. Her initial presentation makes her seem like a likely authority on the subject. So it wasn't shown to us as a kid-kid dubious pass on.

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This would clearly be unusual story, no matter how well you do or don't know some man, to talk about this man and some woman (your aunt) being desperately in love but that man having a bastard with another person who lives in the same household as the woman n(your aunt) that he is supposed to be madly in love with. I think this should stand out to Edric as odd, but then again, he was raised in Dorne and the do some more open than that rest of Westeros in the case of amorous relationships.

And he's 12. And its probably a story from when he was much younger.
I would not be at all surprised to know that he didn;t really understadn the significance of what he's saying.

Then at the other end of the scale, thats not actually uncommon behaviour for many lords I suspect. Robert got bastards and fucked an entire whorehouse while presenting as in love with Lyanna. Robert's a bit worse than usual, but I think its probably not that uncommon a sort of story for young noblemen to get bastards on the help while 'being in love' with a noble maiden.

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Agreed on the bolded, but as the rest, I think GRRM is crafty enough to plant his clues in well scattered places. We just see different clues in the spatter.

Indeed he is. And so we see different clues from the Westlands, Starfall, Winterfell, Robert, Ned and more. 
But planting a different clue in each element of a single scattergun shot breaks the veracity of the scattergun. The point of the scattergun is that you hit with something, not with everything.

 

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Which makes the idea that Rhaegar was out recruiting Ashara and Lyanna to be the mothers of his children during this time fairly ridiculous. If we assume that Rhaegar is out trying to find a new mother for his children when he travels the Riverlands, I think we miss most of the story Martin is telling us. There are multiple layers to be sure, but political motives, personal attachments, and prophetic understandings all have to be look at and seen for how they intertwine with each other in Rhaegar's motivations. Which also must include the basic character of the man.

Yeah, I think this is a more succcinct way of saying what I was trying to.

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My assumption here is that when Rhaegar and his six companions set off into the Riverlands in late 281 AC he is looking for guidance. He is looking for that guidance because his understanding of prophecy has shifted radically and he needs help in understanding the new reality that Elia can have no more children, or that if she does she will likely die. We know this is when he writes Aemon telling of his changing understanding of the prophecy to believing Aegon is the promised prince and not Rhaegar himself. That is why I think he also goes to find the Ghost of High Heart. He knows the role she has played in the marriage of this father and mother, and it is logical to go back to her and ask her for guidance. I don't see anything to suggest he was hunting for Lyanna.

I think this is very likely, yes.

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As I said, I think his finding of Lyanna is a "chance meeting" not a planned one. I've also tried to make it clear I think this "abduction" is in reality a rescue. Not a kidnapping or an elopement, but a rescue from a marriage Lyanna doesn't want to Robert. The attraction of Rhaegar and Lyanna almost certainly goes back to Harrenhal, but that doesn't mean they have been planning this since then. It certainly doesn't mean Rhaegar has convinced Lyanna to be the mother of his "third head of the dragon" in order to fulfill a strange prophecy she has never probably heard of before.

Agreed.

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@Lady Rhodes I should be upfront that I find the idea Daenerys isn't really who she says she is as nothing more than poorly constructed fan theories built on nothing of substance. It takes one real clue - the unusual nature of a lemon tree in Braavos - and builds in baby switches, and conspiracies that not only we have no evidence to support, but are mostly disproved. The lemon tree tells us early on, what we know later from the existence of the marriage pact, that the Martells had a continuing interest in supporting the Targaryens-in-exile and in putting Viserys back on the Iron Throne. The existence of the tree in Braavos quite likely comes from Prince Oberyn's visit to Braavos when he signs the marriage pact, and is a symbol of Dornish support. Nothing more is needed to explain the tree or Martin's response to a question about its unusual nature. No secret Ashara babies. No baby switching. Nada.

Agreed.

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As to  Elia traveling while pregnant with Aegon, let me say a few things. We know Rhaegar, Elia, and Rhaenys have removed themselves from Aerys's court and taken themselves to Dragonstone. When one travels from Dragonstone it necessitates traveling by ship for at least part of the journey. A trip from Dragonstone to Harrenhal can indeed be done mostly by ship. It doesn't have to mean a stop in King's Landing and a two week journey by land to Harrenhal. It likely means a voyage from Dragonstone to Saltpans as the closest port city we know. Perhaps up river to We are not then talking about a prolonged jarring trip by horse or carriage to the tourney. If necessary, we know from Illyrio and Tyrion's travel to see Griff's party it can be done by palanquin over long distances. Can a woman travel during late pregnancy? Yes. There is no doubt about it. Would a maester be able to stop Elia if she and Rhaegar wanted her to? Not likely.

Excellent point about easy travel by ship.

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While I believe the tourney falls within the false spring, mostly because of Meera's tale, which I find highly credible,

So do I. But within that highly credible is definitely storytelling symbolism over dry fact. 
Thats the only thing that gives me pause over the use of the term 'spring' in it. It seems entirely reasonable that the 'spring' here, is not necessarily the formal spring of the Maester's post-white-raven, but the general winter-is-on-the-way-out-for-sure-and-its-warmer-and-the-grass-is-growing-yay!-spring of story telling. Which is described as being happening throughout 281 and is almost certain to have clearly begun by the time in 280 that the tourney was planned.
AsR's second quote indicates (doesn't prove, but its much stronger, meets my 'ok then' threshold I guess)  that it was also green-men-spring, not just yay!-warmer!-spring, and thats good enough for me. It doesn't resolve the larger issue though. More on that below.

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that does not mean - as @corbon rightly points out - it has to take place right before Aegon is born. He's right about the term "vengeance" not meaning speed. Winter sets in a extreme way, but how long that takes to develop as it is described in TWoI&F is open to a range of possibilities. If we are worried about a pregnancy stopping Elia from going to the tourney, that then gives us a range of the third month (unlikely) to the twelfth month (even more unlikely) for the tourney to take place. A mid  part of that range would place Elia mid way through her pregnancy. A little earlier would move it to the time in which a pregnancy just starts to show. Pick your part of the range, but I don't find anything that rules out Elia's participation in the tourney. Again, that is against every good reason we expect she would, and of course we know she did.

Agreed

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Let me end this post by saying why I find Meera's tale so credible. First, when we read the story we should understand Meera is sixteen years old. A woman grown as the saying goes, or should. She is the de facto leader of the party. She is the person who keeps them alive and going. While she tells the tale to Bran in the form of fable from long ago, it is evident to the reader it is telling the tale of the Harrenhal tourney in which Meera's father plays the central role of the "crannogman" and Bran's father, aunt and uncles play the roles of the wolves. This is not a fable. This not a child's bed time story. This is family history told over and over to Meera that she knows quite well. Whether Howland started this tale in this way, or told a more detailed version to her it doesn't matter because it is clear this story is important to Meera and she is shocked to learn Bran has never heard it before.

Agree absolutely. With the caveat that it has been correctly pointed out to me that Meera is not the one shocked that Bran hasn't heard it, Jojen is.

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Meera isn't just making up a story to entertain Bran. This is vital history for the Reeds. So, when she tells us it is spring when the crannogman arrives at Harrenhal, I think we can be sure that is the way Howland told her this story,

Agreed.

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and that is an important part of it.

Not agreed. Its storytelling. The 'happenings' are history, they happened, but it clearly prefers to use symbolism rather than 'Westerosi' detail.

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Moreover it fits. It fits Ned's description of his ride to the tourney at eighteen. It fits Jaime having turned fifteen. These both are early name days as reflected in the ages we know at the welcoming feast.

Almost everything else in it has been corroborated at least in part, too. Its probably the most accurate account we have of anything that happened that we weren't present for!

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There's more about this and the timeline because I haven't seen this quoted yet;

"They are," she agreed, but said no more about them. "All that winter the crannogman stayed on the isle, but when the spring broke he heard the wide world calling and knew the time had come to leave." (Bran II, ASoS 24)

Howland spent all that winter on the Isle of Faces.

Winter lasted almost two years we're told in TWoIaF.

Thats not quite accurate. The winter had lasted nearly two years (already) when the snows started melting, days started getting longer, the winds warmer, and the woods greener. But its was still winter yet - at least in Maester-land, official 7 Kingdoms terminology. The White Raven hadn't flown and the False Spring hadn't started.
Its pretty obvious that that must have started some time in 280, when the tourney was announced. You can't really announce an event like that until you know that the icy winter has broken. Not when winter's can last for years. To me that quote clearly states that at the start of 281 it had been officially winter for almost two full years already.

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In the annals of Westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

 

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He left when spring broke. 

This is a very clear timeline. 

Ok, sure. I'm happy that spring had broken. Officially. If the green men and the Maesters of Oldtown agree, done deal.
Now how do we define that  as a time period? We still don't have anything solid. 
There's icy winter. Up to late 280ish. Then there's warming-winter for a decent period of time. Then there's official Spring, for two months. Then official spring ends. Then at the end of the year, the icy winter++ comes back.
I don't really seen anything  at all to define how long between the end of the False Spring and the icy winterr++ arriving. It could be immediate, or it could be several months.

 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Sure but the Starks and Daynes aren't the only first men descendants in Westeros... I mean, Westeros is full of them, it seems like without a driving force without his decision, why Lyanna specifically and no other, it seems more rash than calculated. About Tolkien, i've seen the movies like everybody but that's about it but again, Martin is a huge fan so it would no be surprising if you are onto something.

To be fair, the Starks and the Daynes (and Blackwoods) do seem to be more significant historically and magically than just 'any old First Man family'. And they both have relatively eligible daughters, whom Rhaegar has been in contact with.

One is reminded of the Pact of Ice and Fire, which was never followed all the way through. The Targaryens still owe the Starks a marraige. This could be a significant factor in Rhaegar's choice of Lyanna.
 

 

[frenin]

14 minutes ago, corbon said:

To be fair, the Starks and the Daynes (and Blackwoods) do seem to be more significant historically and magically than just 'any old First Man family'. And they both have relatively eligible daughters, whom Rhaegar has been in contact with.

The recent Starks, pre magic pets, are about as magical as any other house in the north, bar i believe the Reeds and Skagosi, and honestly in the south as well... nothing at all. The Daynes have a magic  sword but that's about it and i certainly don't see what is the difference between the Brackens and Daynes for example and the Royces besides being more important still abide to some traditions of the first men, and the only magical Blackwoods we know about is Brynden. I don't really see a reason why someone in universe may look to the Dustins, the Starks and the Boltons and conclude that the Starks are more magically significant than them. And while the Starks are by far the most significant family that still abide by the First Men traditions, i don't understand why it's a plus, the more important the target is the lower are the odds that everything ends allright. Nor would i call Lyanna eligible if you need to abscond with her. It seems a lose lose situation, if the first blood is what matters you better to go north and find yourself a suitable woman no one would give a shit about if she went missing or her belly grew big.

 

28 minutes ago, corbon said:

One is reminded of the Pact of Ice and Fire, which was never followed all the way through. The Targaryens still owe the Starks a marraige. This could be a significant factor in Rhaegar's choice of Lyanna.

Which is curious, didn't Rhaegar know that Lyanna was alive before accepting being bethrothed to Elia?? It seems to me that a Prince should know about the existence of the only Warden of the North daughter.

Why would be Rhaegar moved by a pact that one of his great great great great great[...] half uncles made to Cregan?? 

[corbon]

6 minutes ago, frenin said:

i don't understand

Ok.

6 minutes ago, frenin said:

Which is curious, didn't Rhaegar know that Lyanna was alive before accepting being bethrothed to Elia?? It seems to me that a Prince should know about the existence of the only Warden of the North daughter.

Whats that got to do with anything?
1. Probably he still thought he was TPtWP then.
2. He didn't have a choice, it was the King's command.
3. Lyanna was way to young then.

6 minutes ago, frenin said:

Why would be Rhaegar moved by a pact that one of his great great great great great[...] half uncles made to Cregan?? 

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"He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." 

Apparently the PtwP might have something to do with ice and fire. After all, nothing about Aegon other than this song Rhaegar thinks is his, speaks of ice.

Its entirely possible that Rhaegar rethought a few things after Elia was ruled out. Wouldn't be the first time.

If Lyanna was already in his thoughts from tKotLT episode, it a reasonable speculation (which is what we are doing here - trying to think of a reason why Lyanna might be more important than random girl X) that the Pact of Ice and Fire and the Song of Ice and Fire might have come into focus as being connected.

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, corbon said:

Whats that got to do with anything?
1. Probably he still thought he was TPtWP then.
2. He didn't have a choice, it was the King's command.
3. Lyanna was way to young then.

If Rhaegar believed that a daughter of Winterfell was important, it's likely he would have tried to seek her out.

1. He'd still need a couple of heads more, just like his son was supposed to need. 

2. If prophetical demands can overcome political realitie i'm pretty sure that they also can overcome the pressure of his father and it's not like he didn't have precedents to follow.

3. And he could wait to marry her. They could have simply be bethrothed.

 

 

8 minutes ago, corbon said:

Apparently the PtwP might have something to do with ice and fire. After all, nothing about Aegon other than this song Rhaegar thinks is his, speaks of ice.

Its entirely possible that Rhaegar rethought a few things after Elia was ruled out. Wouldn't be the first time.

If Lyanna was already in his thoughts from tKotLT episode, it a reasonable speculation (which is what we are doing here - trying to think of a reason why Lyanna might be more important than random girl X) that the Pact of Ice and Fire and the Song of Ice and Fire might have come into focus as being connected.

I know it's a speculation but even guesses should be held to scrutiny and if one has doubts  propose them. 

 

 

[Lady Rhodes]

After careful consideration, I am tossing a large part of my theory. I still maintain the premise: there is a fellowship formed by Rhaegar to bring about and/or protect the prince that was promised, Ashara was involved, and Dany was raised in Dorne. I still have issues with a heavily pregnant Elia at the tourney from a realism perspective, but admit that the evidence to the contrary is available from multiple sources, and it would be negligent and in bad faith to argues against it for the sake of maintaining my theory.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I haven't been able to read the entire thread yet, so I apologize if I address things already explained further later in the thread, but as I was reading the earlier pages, I saw a few things I wanted to respond to.

 

On 4/21/2020 at 4:17 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

Regarding Elia - I do not think that she was 2-3 months away from giving birth to Aegon at the tourney of Harrenhal.  All the evidence we have been given suggests that pregnancies were incredibly difficult on her, that this was not new to her health (Oberyn suggests that she was always frail), and that she had sustained bedrests or bedridden recoveries with both. No maester would send a highborn noblewoman, ESPECIALLY the Crown Prince's WIFE, to a tourney with that kind of medical history. Hence why I am inclined to think that she wasn't aware she was pregnant yet or was very, very early in her pregnancy.

The timing for Elia's pregnancy is very limited due to the things we know for a fact. She was married in 280 AC, had a daughter that same year, was bedridden for 6 months thereafter, leaving only some ~9 months until the end of 282 AC, near which time Aegon was born. With the description given of the tourney of Harrenhal, during the False Spring of 2 months, it does heavily implies that the tourney was in the second half of the year, and likely a bit closer to the end of that half than to the start of it. However, fact is that we do not know how much time passed before between 'winter starts to return' and the end of the year, when winter was definitely back at KL. 

But I would think that, if the characters would indeed have wished for Elia to travel as little as possible towards the end of her pregnancy, it could be that she had been somewhere slightly past half-way through her pregnancy, towards the end of the 2nd term, when the tourney took place.

Additionally, perhaps she had not needed to travel from Dragonstone to Harrenhal, but perhaps she and Rhaegar had already been at KL by the time the tourney was about to take place. We hear that a comet was seen over KL the night of Aegon's conception. If Aegon had been conceived on Dragonstone, why would Maester Aemon refer to a comet visible from KL (as that comet would most likely also have been visible from Dragonstone, the other most likely place for Rhaegar and Elia to have been)? We know that Rhaegar had eventually brought Rhaenys to KL to present her at court. Possibly, they stayed for a while, with Elia either traveling with them, or (depending on whether or not she had still been bedridden at the time) followed them later?

 

An interesting thing about Elia's whereabouts is her encounter with the Kingswood Brotherhood. She was being escorted by the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard when the Brotherhood attacked. Afterwards, the Kingsguard, under leadership of Arthur Dayne, gathered an army and battled the brotherhood, accompanied by Jaime Lannister.

The timing of when the brotherhood was defeated is a bit unclear, except of course that it took place more than a month before the tourney at Harrenhal, as a month passed between Jaime leaving KL and him receiving a letter at CR, informing him he was appointed to the KG. The fact that Dayne led the force against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and not Hightower, could suggest that Hightower's injury had not yet healed, placing this shortly after the attack on Elia. By the time the force rode out against the Brotherhood, Jaime had already turned 15, placing it in 281 AC.

If I am right that Elia and Rhaegar were in KL when the comet appeared, it could additionally explain how (and when) Elia was being attacked by the Brotherhood, and could in turn suggest that during her second pregnancy, Elia was not (as much) on Dragonstone as she had been during the first year of her marriage.

 

 

On 4/22/2020 at 4:54 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ned's recollection is that he was coming down from the Eyrie. The Arryns don't winter at the Eyrie, they winter at the Gates of the Moon. If he's coming down from the Eyrie, then the Eyrie was reopened and made fit for people to live in it again after some 2 years of winter.

An interesting observation!

 

On 4/23/2020 at 1:54 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

If Rhaenys was born is late 280 (assuming Oct-Nov) April-May falls after her six month bedridden state. I believe that there was a longer gap between the tourney and Lyanna’s disappearance. It does not make sense for Ned to travel from Harrenhal back to the Eyrie prior to Brandon and Catelyn’s wedding, which was to be held at the beginning of 282, if the tourney was late in the year. We know Ned was in the Vale/Eyrie when Aerys called for their heads, ie he was not en route to Riverrun for the wedding.

We do not know when in the year the wedding was to be held. All we know is that Brandon had met up with Rickard and was on his way back to Riverrun for his wedding when Lyanna disappeared, and Lyanna disappeared after she came face to face with Rhaegar in the riverlands. We also know that Rhaegar departed Dragonstone in early 282 AC, but how much time passed (or which places he all visited) before he came "ultimately" returned to the riverlands, where he "fell upon" Lyanna.

Especially the use of "ultimately" suggests that it was not a matter of mere days/weeks.

 

On 4/23/2020 at 3:40 AM, SFDanny said:

Note:

It would seem the tourney at Harrenhal takes place in this "less than two turns" time period and it likely takes place in the last three months of the year 281 AC. Just how long between the return of winter and the end of the New Year is not clearly stated but the fact it returns with a "vengeance" suggests strongly there is not a prolonged period of time between the two events. No mini autumn between False Spring and the dead of winter. Aegon is born in the time period between the end of the tourney and the first of the new year 282 AC

Indeed. Depending on how quickly winter returned, and of course how long it had already been ongoing by the time the Blackwater froze, and on when during the two month period of False Spring the tourney took place (beginning, middle, end?), there is some wiggle room to put some three months or so between the tourney and the end of the year/Aegon's birth. Perhaps even more, but not much more, I think.  

[kissdbyfire]

@Rhaenys_Targaryen, excellent point about Elia being attacked by the KB, I didn’t remember that at all!

[SFDanny]

14 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

After careful consideration, I am tossing a large part of my theory. I still maintain the premise: there is a fellowship formed by Rhaegar to bring about and/or protect the prince that was promised, Ashara was involved, and Dany was raised in Dorne. 

You lost me at the last part of the bolded. I'm not sure what you think being a member of such a fellowship on this question actually means, but I absolutely agree that there is a select group of people Rhaegar consults with on the prophecy. If that is what you mean by "fellowship" then I agree. I don't know if that includes Ashara, but we know it includes Elia and Maester Aemon. I've already stated I think it may well also include Ser Arthur, Ashara, and Archmaester Marwyn. I don't think it translates to Rhaegar's six companions. Obviously that would exclude both Aemon and Elia, both we know he speaks/writes to about the prophecy. 

The identity of  most of Rhaegar's six companions maybe as simple as the list we get from The World of Ice and Fire,

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Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooten of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formable of all of Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. (TWoI&F 125) bold emphasis added

Of note here is that according to the app we only have Ser Arthur and Ser Oswell Whent with Rhaegar when the "kidnapping" occurred. Which may explain who was the sixth companion who left with Rhaegar - meaning Ser Oswell. If so that leaves Ashara out. 

Suggested close companions who might have accompanied Rhaegar into the Riverlands in late twelfth month of 281 AC to early first month of 282 AC period then would likely include:

1. Ser Arthur Dayne - with Rhaegar during the encounter with Lyanna, and dies at the Tower of Joy
2. Ser Oswell Whent- with Rhaegar during the encounter with Lyanna, and dies at the Tower of Joy
3. Lord Jon Connington - become Aerys's Hand early in the rebellion and stripped of his office and sent into exile after Stony Sept
4. Ser Myles Mooten - dies at the Battle of the Bells in Stony Sept
5. Ser Richard Lonmouth - whereabouts unknown - fan speculation he is Lemoncloak
6. Prince Lewyn Martell - dies at the Battle of the Trident

Now I love Ashara for many roles in our backstory as my signature link shows, but here I think she has a role already spelled out. When Elia gives birth she is very likely still a lady in waiting with Elia. That tells me she is likely with Rhaegar and Elia when the princess gives birth to Aegon in Dragonstone. That tells me that until she starts showing her own pregnancy from Harrenhal she is with Elia. Not traveling the riverlands with Rhaegar and her brother. That doesn't mean, I believe she isn't a close confidant of both the crown prince and princess. It doesn't mean she isn't one of the people with whom they both share their closely held secrets. Far from it. I think Ashara plays a critical role at Harrenhal in her interactions with the Starks, but unfortunately falls for a very charismatic man whose political ambitions have nothing to do with Rhaegar's plans. If fact I think those southron ambitions are in direct opposition to the crown prince's plans. But I think she must be included in the inner most circle of the royal's confidants if for no other reason than Ashara's position and her tie to her brother. Just not one of the six with Rhaegar on his travels.

Of interest is why all of the six men listed are not with Rhaegar when he "kidnaps" Lyanna? My guess is that each had roles to play that didn't necessarily mean for them to stay with Rhaegar on his travels. The timing seems to place Mooten as a newly made knight. His leaving the party may well just be Rhaegar returning a beloved once squire to his home at Maidenpool as part of the things he needed to do. Connington we know ends up in King's Landing as does Prince Lewyn and possibly Lonmouth. That they may have gone there after traveling for a while with Rhaegar in order to keep Rhaegar's political ambitions alive at court isn't hard to believe. What is hard to believe is they all abandoned Rhaegar right before his encounter with Lyanna if the prince was planning on really kidnapping her. It seems like something that might well include more than three men if it was the reason for their travels.

But do I think we should include all six as close confidants of Rhaegar? Absolutely! Some of whom he may have told of his views on prophecy. Others he may have relied upon as members of his political inner circle. The two groups do not have to overlap. Call either group a fellowship and I don't have a disagreement. Try to make the relationships into another group of nine walkers bound together on a mission to save the world from a threat of the Others most everyone in Westeros thinks is non-existent then we may quibble.

 

14 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

 I still have issues with a heavily pregnant Elia at the tourney from a realism perspective, but admit that the evidence to the contrary is available from multiple sources, and it would be negligent and in bad faith to argues against it for the sake of maintaining my theory.

I very sober and enlightened prospective. More of us should emulate it.

I'm not going to go into the Daenerys is not Daenerys discussion or the idea she was raised in Dorne unless you want me to. It is a different issue than the one you raised in your first post and takes this thread into a very different direction.

Thanks for a very interesting discussion.

6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

An interesting thing about Elia's whereabouts is her encounter with the Kingswood Brotherhood. She was being escorted by the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard when the Brotherhood attacked. Afterwards, the Kingsguard, under leadership of Arthur Dayne, gathered an army and battled the brotherhood, accompanied by Jaime Lannister.

The timing of when the brotherhood was defeated is a bit unclear, except of course that it took place more than a month before the tourney at Harrenhal, as a month passed between Jaime leaving KL and him receiving a letter at CR, informing him he was appointed to the KG. The fact that Dayne led the force against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and not Hightower, could suggest that Hightower's injury had not yet healed, placing this shortly after the attack on Elia. By the time the force rode out against the Brotherhood, Jaime had already turned 15, placing it in 281 AC.

If I am right that Elia and Rhaegar were in KL when the comet appeared, it could additionally explain how (and when) Elia was being attacked by the Brotherhood, and could in turn suggest that during her second pregnancy, Elia was not (as much) on Dragonstone as she had been during the first year of her marriage.

My assumption is that the attack on Elia and her escort takes place sometime in late 279 as she is being escorted to her wedding in the first month(s) of 280. That Hightower is with her makes sense given the fact that is exactly what Ser Barristan does as one of his first duties as the new Lord Commander when he escorts Cersei to court. That it takes a while for the campaign to wipeout the Kingswood bandits to start and to end them is to be expected. Jaime's role only tells us that it lasts into the year of 281. The Red Viper's tale tells us that Tyrion is a newborn child still at his wet nurse's breast when the eight year old Jaime is part of showing the Dornish guests his brother. That means Jaime's, and of course Cersei's, name day fall very early in the year and Tyrion is born very late in the previous year.

All that is to say, when Jaime is knighted by Ser Arthur in 281 it is very early in the year and the fact the campaign lasts likely most of the previous year and past Jaime's fifteenth name day isn't much of a surprise. We don't know long the campaigned lasted, but from Jaime's description it sounds as if the measures that Ser Arthur took to win the hearts and minds of the bandit's supporters took a while. This wasn't a blitzkrieg assault on them that easily destroyed the outlaws. That it took a half a year or more wouldn't surprise me. Exactly when Jaime joins Ser Arthur's efforts is unknown, but we do know he is knighted after his early name day in 281. So, my only quibble here really is that Jaime was fifteen by the time he rode out to fight against the bandits. His timing for his arrival in the campaign is unclear, but it could well be when he is fourteen in 280, and only that he becomes a knight after he turns fifteen. Or am I missing something here?

I don't think there is any doubt the crown prince and princess are in King's Landing when Aegon is conceived. Aemon tells us so. Because we know Aegon is likely born in the 12th month and assuming a full term pregnancy it places the conception in the third to fourth month. Or right about the end of the six month bed rest Elia is said to have been forced to endure after Rhaenys birth. We know that this also coincides with the range of time for the presentation of Rhaenys at court. I would guess that it is on this trip Aegon is conceived and Rhaegar sees the comet. How long they stay given their "welcome" by Aerys is an open question, but I'd say they leave as quickly as possible and as quickly as Rhaella will allow them to take her grandchild away. Perhaps I'm just substituting my own feelings onto the royal couple but I'd want my daughter out of immediate control of a mad king who thinks his granddaughter "smells dornish" as quickly as possible.