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US Politics - under the spell of The Count


Lykos

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But talking about the News Breakers from CNN. What do you make of that number of voters, who think the US administration has done a good job in its efforts to deal with corona?

I'm not sure what number you're referring to - I'm not watching CNN, just got that quote from here - but in general I'd say lots of Americans are very stupid.  Always been very proud of that.

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A right wing populist radio jock here in NZ says he'd vote for Trump if he was eligible. What was surprising to me is that his colleagues who work at the station with him were shocked and surprised and tried to argue with him.

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1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

A right wing populist radio jock here in NZ says he'd vote for Trump if he was eligible. What was surprising to me is that his colleagues who work at the station with him were shocked and surprised and tried to argue with him.

“We can’t say love that racist asshole...yet.”

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2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Kentucky is voting for Trump too!! Indiana, now Kentucky. It's over people, time to pack up and go home.

There's important information to be gleaned from those states too. If Democrats pick up IN-5 that's a real good sign for the night, and if its a blowout loss it's a really bad one. A close loss should be fine, albeit disappointing.

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Also, assuming Biden wins and rule of law is restored, a bunch of people are going to get in big trouble over this one:

Eve of the election with the potential for some big changes afterwards seems like a bad time to be testing the concept that court orders are optional.

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10 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's important information to be gleaned from those states too.

Speaking of that..

Quote

NATHANIEL RAKICH  NOV. 3, 6:30 PM

Elliott County, in the coal fields of eastern Kentucky, was notable for voting Democratic in every presidential election from 1872 to 2012. But illustrating how white, working-class areas like Appalachia have moved away from the party, Trump carried Elliott by 44 points in 2016. Now, with 47 percent of the expected vote reporting, Trump is leading by 33 points in Elliott, according to The New York Times.

 

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Will have to wait and see if its enough (about R+2, so it all depends on how independents split, as well as R-D crossover)

I do think it’s likely Biden picks up the majority of indies, but not to the degree where he’d surpass the current republican lead. 

It seems so big.

And I do think the R-D cross over may be smaller than hoped for.

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2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I do think it’s likely Biden picks up the majority of indies, but not to the degree where he’d surpass the current republican lead. 

It seems so big.

Why?  Let's say Biden wins independents ~ 1.4 to 1.2 million - that's a split of about 54/46% and would make up the 200,000 vote deficit.

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7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It seems so big.

That's what she said.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Why?  Let's say Biden wins independents ~ 1.4 to 1.2 million - that's a split of about 54/46% and would make up the 200,000 vote deficit.

Goddamn you, I was working on the maths, but you beat me to it. :cheers:

Edit I've got 54,05/45,95.

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10 minutes ago, DMC said:

Why?  Let's say Biden wins independents ~ 1.4 to 1.2 million - that's a split of about 54/46% and would make up the 200,000 vote deficit.

That’s like 8 points. Seems a tall order, even with some polling showing indies favor Biden.
If it’s just 5 points and republicans don’t defect from Trump 6-3 in comparison to democrats I don’t see Biden getting enough votes to get the state.

9 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

That's what she said.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Goddamn you, I was working on the maths, but you beat me to it. :cheers:

Edit I've got 54,05/45,95.

Yes.

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Pinnellas county has early vote in, and it's Biden +8 (+38k votes).  Trump won it by 2.  Election day vote is still to be counted, and it was R+21,000.  Do that subtraction, and it would be Biden by 17k, which is...ok.  Neither great nor terrible for Biden.  I was definitely hoping for better.

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