US Politics - And Now it Begins

[Jaxom 1974]

20 minutes ago, DMC said:

 

Indeed.  Having not one but two runoffs is like a special bonus for political junkies usually going through withdrawal right now.

You mean those special elections that Always Trumper are calling on all true Trump Conservatives to boycott because neither Republican Senator has done enough to keep Georgia from being stolen for Biden?  Yeah.  That's gonna be fun to watch.  

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

You mean those special elections that Always Trumper are calling on all true Trump Conservatives to boycott because neither Republican Senator has done enough to keep Georgia from being stolen for Biden?  Yeah.  That's gonna be fun to watch.  

I still fully expect the Republicans to win both those races, and nothing will convince me otherwise unless the returns prove me wrong. 

[Jaxom 1974]

16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I still fully expect the Republicans to win both those races, and nothing will convince me otherwise unless the returns prove me wrong. 

I'm not saying I disagree with you.  I don't. I am amused that there are some truly deep in Trumpy people who don't want the Republican Senators to succeed because they're not helping their guy/savior.  That some of these conspiracy nuts could potentially suppress their own votes is amusing. It might have been more of a factor if it was December 23rd and not November 23rd...

[DMC]

31 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

You mean those special elections that Always Trumper are calling on all true Trump Conservatives to boycott because neither Republican Senator has done enough to keep Georgia from being stolen for Biden?

Heh, yeah I've seen that over the past few days.  Hilarious - boycott the election because Loeffler and Perdue aren't doing enough to help Trump steal the election in their state!  But yeah, agree with Maith.  Totally expect the GOP to win both and won't be getting my hopes up until it's called for one (or both) of the Dems.  Regardless, will be very interesting for dorks like me to compare the turnout rates and their respective crosstabs.

[Fez]

28 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I still fully expect the Republicans to win both those races, and nothing will convince me otherwise unless the returns prove me wrong. 

I don't. I fully expect anything from GOP+10 to Dem+5 and will not be surprised by anything in between. And I also won't be surprised if its super close and they split 1-1 (probably Ossoff losing and Warnock winning).

With the changes in party coalitions, there's not much reason to think it'll be the Democrats who suffer more from decreased turnout.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

there's not much reason to think it'll be the Democrats who suffer more from decreased turnout.

That definitely appears to be true - and you're right that very realistic expectations vary quite a bit - but psychologically/emotionally I'm done getting my hopes up.  Time to revert to the defense mechanism of guarded cynicism.

[Maithanet]

Especially because defeating Trump nationally just sounds so so much easier than winning both senate seats in Georgia.  I acknowledge that it is possible, but if we barely managed for former, it feels like hopeless optimism to expect the latter. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

It's pretty stupid to compare intraparty approval with Reagan considering polarization was just kicking off and there were tons more crossovers back then, for both approval and disapproval.  Moreover the suggestion his approval among Republicans is somehow record-breaking - as he has claimed - is completely unfounded.  When comparing Dubya to Trump, Dubya easily matches or even outpaces Trump up until Katrina.

But isn't that the point? Bush lost support for repeatedly fucking up. Trump isn't, and you could argue his mistakes are greater and more self-inflicted. 

[Fragile Bird]

CNBC is reporting Yellin as Treasury Secretary is going to be announced. And a Latino woman running Homeland Security! That should mean things will be run differently.

eta: boosted the markets, since they expect Treasury Department backstops for the economy will be reinstated very quickly.

[GrimTuesday]

I'm sorry, but I'm pretty bothered by Biden's picks here. It's just a continuation of American empire which is ultimately the strongest through line of every single American administration in the modern era. Biden's administration won't be quite as outwardly nasty as Trump, but it's not like they are going to bring Israel to heel, we're going to keep dropping bombs on innocent civilians in the middle east, we're going to keep supporting the IMF and the World bank in their exploitative practices of developing nations and the Global South, we're going to keep interfering with other nations whose national interests are in conflict with those of American capital, and we're going to keep propping up monsters around the world because they buy planes and bombs from us.

Let me be clear, I am not surprised that this is what we are getting, but I don't see how people can look at this and be ok with it. We keep giving these people who keep going round and round in the revolving door of the private and public sector, which is something we attack Republicans for but are suspiciously silent when a Democrat does it. Of course, this revolving door means that we continue to perpetuate the same world system that has made these people rich off the back of the rest of the world. Things are going to be better for us Americans, this is irrefutable, but for the rest of the world (with a few exception), basically nothing is going to change.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But isn't that the point? Bush lost support for repeatedly fucking up.

I'd say Bush fucked up pretty damn royally and repeatedly well before Katrina - and so would and did many many others.  Obviously, everyone pales in comparison to Trump when it comes to being teflon for gaffes-to-scandals-to-crimes-to-light treason that would've destroyed any other politician.  But I'd say the most important point is Dubya didn't start losing intraparty support until a second term that Trump was denied.

5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNBC is reporting Yellin as Treasury Secretary is going to be announced. And a Latino woman running Homeland Security! That should mean things will be run differently.

The Homeland Security pick is widely reported to be Alejandro Mayorkas, who is Cuban-American but also, ya know, a man.  Also being reported John Kerry as climate czar and Avril Haines as DNI.  Fine with both, but also pretty uninspired.  Yellen, too, is a way too cautious pick IMO.  Thus far I'm not a fan that Biden appears to be scared of nominating anyone the GOP may even try to put up a fight against.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Yeah, the Georgia elections IMO will be driven by turnout, and I dont know if the infrequent voters on either side will make an appearance again. I think Perdue will win, but I think Warnock may be able to pull it off.

[Fez]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

That definitely appears to be true - and you're right that very realistic expectations vary quite a bit - but psychologically/emotionally I'm done getting my hopes up.  Time to revert to the defense mechanism of guarded cynicism.

Oh yeah. I definitely don't think Democrats are favored here; but I don't think they're underdogs either. Pure tossup.

16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Especially because defeating Trump nationally just sounds so so much easier than winning both senate seats in Georgia.  I acknowledge that it is possible, but if we barely managed for former, it feels like hopeless optimism to expect the latter. 

Well, it is a state that Biden just won. Barely, but he did. So right off the bat it's important to remember that: A Democrat can win Georgia. We have proof.

[GrimTuesday]

19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNBC is reporting Yellin as Treasury Secretary is going to be announced. And a Latino woman running Homeland Security! That should mean things will be run differently.

eta: boosted the markets, since they expect Treasury Department backstops for the economy will be reinstated very quickly.

A Latino woman running homeland security? Wow, now the poor huddle masses who came to America for a better life will be able to relate more to the person signing their deportation orders. This idea that having a woman or a minority in charge is exactly the kind of libshit that keeps perpetuating the same disgusting policies that started under the Obama Administration and Trump accelerated. I posted a one panel comic some time last week of a couple of folks in the middle east marveling that in the future, the drones dropping the bombs on them will be piloted by women. This is the actual problem with virtue signalling, when you try to use someone's gender or race to make it seem like it's somehow different when it is a Latino woman dropping bombs rather than a white man.

Also 30% of ICE and 50% of Boarder Patrol are Latino, just because someone is of South or Central American descent does not mean they do not uphold the oppressive apparatus of the state. This is like saying that Ben Carson at HUD is good because he is black.

[argonak]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

A couple of things are becoming clear from precinct and county level data:

 - Democrats have a looming problem with Latino voters.  A lot of the "demographic collapse" of the GOP was predicated on the assumption that the trend in 2004-2016 held, where Latino voters grew in numbers and continued vote ~70% for Democrats.  That did not happen in 2020.  We don't have a full picture yet, but it is very obvious that at least Latinos in Florida and South Texas were MUCH more favorable to the GOP than they were in 2016 and 2018.  And they did that in spite of Trump being, ya know, a terrible candidate.  There is definitely reason to think that in the future, Republicans will double these efforts, and with that both Florida and Texas (the 2nd and 3rd largest states) should be safely red. 

Culturally, I think a large percentage of Latinos would be automatic Republican voters if the GOP had been able to focus on their own policies and culture wars.  Having their steering wheel seized by racist evangelical zealots put a bit of a damper on things, but I'm surprised how little of one.  I wonder if its one of those "Well they don't mean me" things, where the republican latinos just don't realize that the other republicans don't like them, thinking that they only dislike illegal immigrants..

Democrats have made (in my opinion) a huge opinion thinking that latinos care a whole lot about illegal immigration.  Unless the latinos in question are illegal immigrants (in which case they can't vote anyway), I don't think its the wedge issue they want it to be.  The anti-latino racism from the GOP ought to be a much stronger point of contention, rather than defending illegal immigration, something that competes with legal immigrants for work.

[Maithanet]

I'm wondering if Trump is going to start appointing his second term cabinet to steal attention away from Biden (not that Biden's cabinet is terribly exciting).  He'd need to really make some big splashes to get the neccesary attention. 

Rudy Guiliani at AG!

Joe Arpaio at DHS! 

Stone Cold Steve Austin at Defense! 

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Let me be clear, I am not surprised that this is what we are getting, but I don't see how people can look at this and be ok with it. We keep giving these people who keep going round and round in the revolving door of the private and public sector, which is something we attack Republicans for but are suspiciously silent when a Democrat does it.

Well, I think you had to know the national security picks were gonna be a given.  I thought Treasury though was a good opportunity for Biden to make a splash with a confirmable nominee like Sarah Bloom Raskin.  Even Brainard would've been a more positive sign for leftists (and myself).  Pretty disappointed by the Yellen pick.  Also wish he would've went with Jay Inslee for the climate czar rather than dusting off John Kerry, but to be fair it's entirely possible Inslee turned the job down.  Still, even if he did, I'd think you could come up with a more inspired candidate in that role than Kerry.

[DMC]

Just now, Maithanet said:

Stone Cold Steve Austin at Defense! 

This would get him my vote, fascism and bringing about the apocalypse be damned.

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

A Latino woman running homeland security?

Again, Alejandro Mayorkas is a Cuban-American (and Jewish) man.  I think Bird is getting that pick mixed up with Avril Haines, who will be the first female DNI (not exactly groundbreaking even if the job wasn't only 15 years old).

[ThinkerX]

According to this guy, the US is already an effectively failed state - and he lived through the half-assed but successful coup in another nation.  Lot's of hyperbole, but he has a point.  And from my POV, Biden is nothing more than an interim figure.

 

https://medium.com/indica/i-lived-through-a-coup-america-is-having-one-now-437934b1dac3

 

Two years ago, I lived through a coup in Sri Lanka. It was stupid. The minority party threw chili powder at everyone in Parliament and took over by farce. Math, however, requires a majority and the courts kicked them out. They gave in. We’d been protesting for weeks and yay, we won.

No.

I didn’t know it at the time, but we had already lost. No one knew — but oh my God, what we lost. The legitimate government came back but it was divided and weak. We were divided and weak. We were vulnerable.

Four months later, on Easter Sunday, some assholes attacked multiple churches and hotels, killing 269 of us. My wife and kids were at church, I had to frantically call them back. Our nation was shattered. Mobs began attacking innocent Muslims. It was out of control. The coup broke our government, and four months later, that broke us.

The coup was a farce at the time but how soon it turned to tragedy. They called it a constitutional crisis, but how soon it became a real one. Right now, the same thing is happening to you. I’m trying to warn you America. It seems stupid now, but the consequences are not.