U.S. Politics: That's too bad for Carrots

[argonak]

57 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

I wouldn't count on that. Republicans have a tendency to select the person that was 2nd in the primary the last time around. Also, Cruz is willing to say or do anything to achieve power.

Cruz may be hungry for power, but he's also a weak willed, pathetic slime of a human being.  And the Trumps know it.  They've walked all over him the last four years with no repercussions.  They'll continue to do so.  Same with Graham.

If Donald doesn't run in 2024 (Revenge of the Orange!), it'll be one of his kids, probably Ivanka, although the whole crime family will be in on it.  The only thing that will stop them is state or federal indictments and the resultant fleeing to Russia.  If the Democrats don't punish them for the crimes they've spent the last four years committing and enriching themselves, they're not going away.  

Now that they've discovered how much money they're able to fleece from Republican voters, they're not going to walk away from that trough.  Add in the prestige and influence and all the bootlicking the GOP has done, and who would want to give up that?

[Jaxom 1974]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

To add to the state trend analysis, I really wouldn't put Wisconsin as "moving right" either.  Maybe "tilting right," but I definitely don't share the fear that it could trend as drastically as Iowa.  The black population is significantly larger and not going anywhere.  It's also considerably more educated and less rural. 

 

Wisconsin is very rural. It's a lot like Illinois in that the Democratic bastion is based almost entirely in the metro area of a single city. The difference is the size of Milwaukee versus Chicago.  In Wisconsin, most of that slack is taken up by the Madison area, but otherwise...this state could go either way at any time.  That's scary. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, argonak said:

If Donald doesn't run in 2024 (Revenge of the Orange!), it'll be one of his kids, probably Ivanka, although the whole crime family will be in on it.  The only thing that will stop them is state or federal indictments and the resultant fleeing to Russia.  If the Democrats don't punish them for the crimes they've spent the last four years committing and enriching themselves, they're not going away.  

Maybe, but we are seeing Fox and some elected officials moving away from Trump. He and his family could very well be has-beens in four years.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Wisconsin is very rural. It's a lot like Illinois in that the Democratic bastion is based almost entirely in the metro area of a single city. The difference is the size of Milwaukee versus Chicago.  In Wisconsin, most of that slack is taken up by the Madison area, but otherwise...this state could go either way at any time.  That's scary. 

Right, the forces that are dragging Iowa to the right are definitely present in Wisconsin as well.  In 2020, Milwaukee+Madison held that back for a narrow Biden win, but it still voted ~ 4 points to the right of the nation as a whole.  It is easy to imagine Wisconsin gradually moving right over the next decade, and frankly kind of difficult to make a counternarrative where the Democrats regain ground. 

But, we did get one piece of good news:

Both IA-2 and NY-22 aren't going to be settled for a while, but there's definitely a real chance Dems could end up with both seats.  And while it may not sound like much, a margin of 224-211 is a lot more manageable than 222-213. 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Wisconsin is very rural.

It is, but not to the extent of Iowa.  See 538's urbanization index.

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

It is easy to imagine Wisconsin gradually moving right over the next decade, and frankly kind of difficult to make a counternarrative where the Democrats regain ground.

I'd say education driving polarization, and the increased trends in education level in Wisconsin, is quite the compelling counter-narrative for Dems to hold steady in terms of the demographic landscape.

[Maithanet]

This is kinda funny:

Here's the winner for Democrats:

1980: Georgia

1984: District of Columbia

1988: New York

1992: California

1996: New York

2000: New York

2004: New York

2008-2020: California

[Kalbear]

I think its also remarkable how the high turnout did not mean landslide dem election. 

And for that matter, by far the best way to get more people to vote is vote by mail. Having the highest turnout in 100 years was led by vbm. Make it easier to vote, more people will.

[Jaxom 1974]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

It is, but not to the extent of Iowa.  See 538's urbanization index.

 

Sure. But there isn't much else to Iowa except corn.

If it's not Milwaukee and the immediate area around it, or a lite.bit of Madison, it's rural around here. 

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

But there isn't much else to Iowa except corn.

And that corn increasingly votes GOP.  Even when Dems - and Biden - pandered to it.

[Jaxom 1974]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

And that corn increasingly votes GOP.  Even when Dems - and Biden - pandered to it.

No argument! Iowa sucks. Cedar Rapids smells like oats constantly. 

I was mainly commenting on the idea that anything away from the largest in urban centers of a state is rural, whether it is or not. Big city thinking.  

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I was mainly commenting on the idea that anything away from the largest in urban centers of a state is rural, whether it is or not. Big city thinking.

I'm not really sure what you're referring to.

[Derfel Cadarn]

56 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Maybe, but we are seeing Fox and some elected officials moving away from Trump. He and his family could very well be has-beens in four years.

I suspect the Trumps in 2024 may be Sarah Palin in 2012.

[Zorral]

6 hours ago, kairparavel said:

This is great. 

 

Partner called me over this AM to see this.  Terrific.  Do ya think (some) Dems are finally gettin' the hang of this tv thang?

[Ser Reptitious]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I think it's premature to say the Dems have to maintain their margins with uneducated whites in Wisconsin.  First, trends in the electorate should increase the share of black and educated white voters over the next four years.  Second, education as one of the two (IMO) key mechanisms of polarization means any loss in margin among uneducated whites could very well be made up with an increase in margin among educated whites.

In other words, seems to me that Democrats (in Wisconsin and throughout the US) really need to focus on making higher education as affordable as possible.

[Ser Reptitious]

35 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

I suspect the Trumps in 2024 may be Sarah Palin in 2012.

Fingers crossed! 

[Jaxom 1974]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I'm not really sure what you're referring to.

I'm being an elitist, suburban/urban elitist and looking down my nose at anything that isn't a city or it's surrounding area.  Rural? Bah. 

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I'm being an elitist, suburban/urban elitist and looking down my nose at anything that isn't a city or it's surrounding area.  Rural? Bah. 

Aye, I'm right there with you....although.  My only real experience in rural areas is visiting/working on my uncle's dairy and getting large quantities of weed.  The former made him a millionaire and the latter made me decent of money plus, ya know, got me really high off a higher-quality product.  So I guess I can't look down on rural areas too much.

[HoodedCrow]

MJ is the new cash crop. 

[argonak]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Maybe, but we are seeing Fox and some elected officials moving away from Trump. He and his family could very well be has-beens in four years.

I don't think that will change the cult of personality that has risen up around him.  Its got its own momentum now.  Fox and the GOP created a Tiger, and it won't go away just because they don't want to hold its tail anymore.  If anything it will be more likely to bite them instead now.   I still see the same Trump flags flying on the highway.  His cult may be a bit dispirited now, but in a few months they're going to have something better than what they've had the past four years.  A real honest to goodness enemy to rally against.  Pelosi was never a good target, because acknowledging her as an enemy meant that Trump was too weak to control the government.  Trying to play yourself as an outsider is a hard sell when you're the freaking president.

But now Trump will be able to rile his base up against Biden and the "demoncrats" for the next two years, possibly four if the the 2022 election isn't a GOP victory.  And over that entire period of time he's going to be able to collect donations, hold rallies, and just generally extract wealth from his base.  Short of jail or death, I don't see any reason for him to stop.  Then if he doesn't feel like running (because he'll be older and even lazier), he can push Ivanka to the front and say "here's your first Woman President! Vote for her! (But keep sending me your money)"

He's an evangelical televangelist without the religious hooplah.

[Lollygag]

6 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Another story getting big play on CNBC this morning was about massive unemployment money fraud in California.

When I say massive, it appears to be the largest unemployment claim fraud in the history of California.

It looks like someone (I’m guessing it must be a prison authority employee) submitted a huge number of prisoners’ names for unemployment benefits, some names getting 16 applications in. Murderers, rapists, death row inmates, all got cash, a lot direct deposited into their accounts. Scott Peterson, the guy who murdered his wife, was one of the names listed.
 

Apparently it was uncovered when someone overheard chatter between some convicts.

Business/economy minded Republicans who are potentially swayable to some degree of openness to more government chew on stuff like this for *years* like a dog with a bone. Hard deal-breaker.

How it looks to them: This waste could have gone to someone who really needs it but Dems show no outrage over that, just accept waste and inefficiency, and ask for more money to go down the drain and more government which raises questions about whether they really care or whether their big government stuff is a big power grab from hard-working people who are honest and pay their taxes and Dem caring is just an excuse. Why should we approve more unemployment assistance if it just goes to criminals and is mismanaged?

Dems really have no idea how much this stuff undermines them. It's really, really bad and no mass outrage and attempts at cleaning up the system to prevent future fraud, waste and inefficiency makes it worse.