Covid-19 #21 - The Darkness Before the Dawn

[VigoTheCarpathian]

1 hour ago, ummester said:

Even if the current virus were the black death, with 33% mortality rate, i would chose freedom. Its an ideal. Its me. You don't like it, sorry - i rather be free.

It's funny though - this is a fantasy forum - and core of the Western fantasist ideal is freedom. When did you lovers of Western fantasy get so scared?

“I rather be free” - priceless.

Your freedom ends where mine begins, in any rational society, and you’re conflating Eric Cartman’s “Ai do what ai wont” with living in an adult world where your choices have consequences for others and you should be accountable for those (probably shitty) choices.

If you aren’t a troll, please also tell me more about “we should have protected the vulnerable/elderly, it’s a weak disease and the rest of us could have handled it” strategy, and how you would have rolled it out.  I’ve seen people parrot this bullshit line without talking through tactics, which is where the nonsense falls apart.  It’s also clear that the current state of the western world’s response is fucking abysmal- and only armchair quarterback pipe dreams set forth logic like  “well, if this same incompetent set of responders would have responded in the way I say, then this would be peachy” - I sincerely doubt you have a plan (I am assuming you are quoting Joe Rogan, who doesn’t have a plan) , and if you did, I doubt that that plan could have been executed by those in place now.  

[kairparavel]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/food-banks-sound-alarm-child-hunger-covid-crisis-drags-n1252368

Quote

More than 50 million people living in America, including 17 million children, are likely to experience food insecurity by the end of the year, according to Feeding America, the country's largest anti-hunger organization. That amounts to 1 in 6 Americans and 1 in 4 children — an increase of nearly 50 percent over last year.

Quote

While the pandemic didn't cause the nation's hunger problem, it has made things much worse.

 

[BigFatCoward]

Apparently fewer than 350 people under 60 with no pre existing relevant conditions have died in the UK. If the oxford vaccine is approved and as hoped 15 million most vulnerable people are vaccinated by end of February, it looks like we could be back to something approaching normalcy in 10 weeks or so. Obviously I dont trust a single thing this government says. But I am cautiously hopeful. 

[Heartofice]

6 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Apparently fewer than 350 people under 60 with no pre existing relevant conditions have died in the UK. If the oxford vaccine is approved and as hoped 15 million most vulnerable people are vaccinated by end of February, it looks like we could be back to something approaching normalcy in 10 weeks or so. Obviously I dont trust a single thing this government says. But I am cautiously hopeful. 

This was widely spread on Twitter but if you look into it, it’s pretty deceptive a stat.

Firstly if you look at the numbers 65 and under it’s more like 7500 that have died ( I have to check that number but it’s high)

Then you have to look at the definition of ‘pre existing condition’ that is being used, and it’s very broad, basically you could have asthma and it is a pre existing condition. So that 350 number excludes a lot of people.

I have sympathy for the sentiment behind the idea of protecting the vulnerable as a priority, and it hasn’t really been shown why that is so difficult to achieve, but the above numbers are not a reason to let everyone out 

[BigFatCoward]

52 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

This was widely spread on Twitter but if you look into it, it’s pretty deceptive a stat.

Firstly if you look at the numbers 65 and under it’s more like 7500 that have died ( I have to check that number but it’s high)

Then you have to look at the definition of ‘pre existing condition’ that is being used, and it’s very broad, basically you could have asthma and it is a pre existing condition. So that 350 number excludes a lot of people.

I have sympathy for the sentiment behind the idea of protecting the vulnerable as a priority, and it hasn’t really been shown why that is so difficult to achieve, but the above numbers are not a reason to let everyone out 

But most of those likely to die, however they have measured the above figure, would be in the first 15 million to receive the jab?

Once that has happened we need to get out of the cycle of repeated lockdown as quickly as possible. The longer we are paying back deficits, a new wave of austerity is likely, and by conservative estimates the last period of austerity killed many more than covid has so far. 

If we have to have a full nationwide lockdown until those 15 million are protected so be it. 

[Heartofice]

Oh yeah, I think as soon as phase one of vaccinations are done then we need to come out of almost all lockdown measures, though I suspect there will be a large vocal resistance to that with some saying we should stay till everyone has the jab

The above numbers you quoted were being used by people like Julia Hartley Brewer to demonstrate why we shouldn’t have ever gone into lockdown 

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

This is absolutely terrible, and the reason why I gave generously to my local food bank this holiday season. And will do so again once bonus time comes.

I donated food to our local, one-eared fox.

She's been knocking round the manor for a couple of years now, and I often see her in the street, or scrabbling over my garden fence. Unfortunately, she's got a pretty bad limp at the moment and I guess she's been finding it hard to get food. 

Anyway, mum got a massive turkey, far too big for three. We had two meals out of it, and yesterday my brother and I took what was left for sandwiches, maybe a curry. However, as we arrived home we spotted Old One Ear limping up the road towards us. 

Me 'n Chops decided that we would like to give the bird to the fox. So we left it by the roadside, went inside and waited. Needless to say, Kolo wasn't best pleased - there was a fuckload of meat on that turkey. But we were delighted when the fox appeared outside, cautiously approached the bird, gave it a lick, then picked it up and limped off down the road. 

Om nom nom. 

/derail

[Fragile Bird]

Pardon me for saying so, but I think some of you guys are nuts. Vaccinate 15 M people and then throw open the economy? Really? That’s about 22% of the population. So it’s open season on what, 50 M people? 68 minus 15 minus the 2 who’ve been confirmed they’ve had it? Maybe minus another, let’s be generous, 10 M who may have had it? So you want to expose 40 M people to a highly infectious disease because you don’t think they’re going to get sick enough to worry about?

The most highly infectious disease out there is measles. It has a vaccine that’s 98% effective. When the number of vaccinations drop to 95% herd immunity can break down and cause outbreaks. Measles can cause seizures, brain inflammation, pneumonia and death in the people who get it, usually children but adults as well. And while most of the people who get the measles in these outbreaks are people who have not been vaccinated, about 10% who get it have been vaccinated for the virus.
 

No one knows what percentage of the population has to be immunized to achieve herd immunity from Covid, but it’s probably in the 85% to 90% range. 22% isn’t going to do it. 22% plus 15% (maybe the number of people who’ve had it), 37%, isn’t going to do it. And not only might the 40 M get sick, 10% of those vulnerable people who got the vaccine, if measles is an indicator, will get sick.
 

Frankly if you guys think opening up the economy is going to A-ok after 15 M people get vaccinated, I think you’re going to be in for a big surprise.

[Durckad]

3 hours ago, ummester said:

So you are scared of alternate opinion?

You realise rational people can discuss without jumping to fearful conclusions right? 

Says the person who used the term "communistic crap." So rational, so reasonable.

[Heartofice]

In the UK 99% of deaths have been people who would have been covered by that phase 1 vaccination round. 
 

To suggest you need to close down a country after you’ve protected the vulnerable is insanity.

[Fragile Bird]

3 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

In the UK 99% of deaths have been people who would have been covered by that phase 1 vaccination round. 
 

To suggest you need to close down a country after you’ve protected the vulnerable is insanity.

If you think that 53 M people in the UK are not overweight or obese, are not diabetic, do not have kidney disease or asthma or some other condition, you are insane.

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

If you think that 53 M people in the UK are not overweight or obese, are not diabetic, do not have kidney disease or asthma or some other condition, you are insane.

I’ll repeat that statistic to you again shall I?

[Fragile Bird]

19 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I’ll repeat that statistic to you again shall I?

Yes please, and break down the numbers, don’t throw around a bullshit number.

[Heartofice]

3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Yes please, and break down the numbers, don’t throw around a bullshit number.

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-phase-one-vaccine-rollout-will-protect-99-per-cent-of-uks-at-risk-population/

 

Quote

Professor Wei Shen Lim, chair of the committee, said the first phase of vaccine rollout would “prioritise the most vulnerable individuals in society, specifically people who are most likely to die from severe Covid-19 infection”. 

Interim current recommendations place care home residents and care home workers at the top of the priority list, followed by older age groups from 80-plus-year-olds, going down to 60-plus-year-olds, Professor Lim said.

“Then adults with underlying health conditions, then 50-plus-year-olds, going down the age bands.”

Professor Lim added: “If phase one is completed then we will have protected hopefully over 99 per cent of those individuals who are at risk of dying from Covid-19. 

 

[Fragile Bird]

25 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@Fragile Bird - the economy in Georgia was only closed for one or two months. 

If we can protect the vulnerable, people will still need to be cautious - I’m going to keep wearing a mask and limit my social contacts, for example. Outdoor dining will likely be my norm for the next year.

I don’t believe anyone is truly suggesting that once we protect the vulnerable vis vaccination that it’s back to 2019 again.

What exactly do you think “open up the economy means”?

Let’s compare Georgia and the UK. Georgia has had 60,000 cases per million population, and 1,007 deaths per million. The UK has had 35,000 cases per million, but look, 1,045 deaths per million. Maybe Georgia has more cases because, as Trump always says, the US tests more than anyone else in the world? Oh, look, Georgia has done 530,000 tests per M, but the UK has done 768,000 tests per M!

I’m going to guess that if the UK opens up Georgia style their case load is going to go up 70 or 80% and a helluva a lot more people are going to die.

[Fragile Bird]

7 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-phase-one-vaccine-rollout-will-protect-99-per-cent-of-uks-at-risk-population/

 

 

What is it about the word “numbers” you don’t understand? That article has a doctor spinning hopeful bullshit in it without any numbers.

Numbers, give me the numbers. 15M is a bullshit number pulled out of the air. Here, I’ll even help you, there are 12M people over the age of 65, there are 150k doctors and 330k nurses in the UK. How many total workers are there in hospitals? How many people have “underlying conditions”, and what are those underlying conditions? 67% of adult men in the UK are overweight, 26% are obese, 60% of women are overweight, 29% are obese.  

Those numbers add up to a lot more than 15M. And I haven’t even touched on the issue of service workers and PoC.

And what is the goal for daily vaccinations? The US goal under Biden is 1M a day. So far they’ve done 1M in a week and a half. Early days yes, but I’d say it will take quite a while to get to a million. What is the UK goal and what has been done so far?

Numbers, not bullshit.

 

[Heartofice]

What is difficult to understand here? The UK government has set out the groups that are included in the phase 1 rollout, you can do your own reading if you want to know what they are. 
 

Since deaths outside of those groups are incredibly small, it makes sense to roll back most, if not all of the measures of lockdown once those vaccinations are complete. 
 

What is it you are not getting?

[DireWolfSpirit]

I'm having sincere doubts that the U.S. can do a million shots a day. It's not volunteer work, these are going to need to be paid private sector HC professionals accomplishing this shot administering.

That on top of all the other HC duties these people are already responsible for. Most of these people are probably already working long hours, where are the time, resources and personale going to come from to increase a load of 1 million more patients daily?

I haven't read anything reassuring that the current govt has done anything at all to help the private sector increase its capacity to that level. Biden will be taking over a system deep in a hole it seems likely.

[DireWolfSpirit]

3 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

In the US, pharmacists can also give a vaccine. So, it’s not like one must walk into a doctor’s office.

Great, what's the hold up then? All I keep hearing are about millions of shots available in backlog, not being administered.

Where's the breakdown occuring?

[DireWolfSpirit]

I think Biden should use wartime level powers and make the inoculations a campaign of absolute urgency. Commandeer spaces, redirect trafic, man all stations 24/7, type of thing.