Fragile Bird Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, Heartofice said: What is difficult to understand here? The UK government has set out the groups that are included in the phase 1 rollout, you can do your own reading if you want to know what they are. Since deaths outside of those groups are incredibly small, it makes sense to roll back most, if not all of the measures of lockdown once those vaccinations are complete. What is it you are not getting? What are you not getting about my request for numbers? And not “15 million and Bob’s your uncle” numbers? Are you just a parrot repeating tweets? Can’t you analyze what you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 It's also the storage for the vaccine. Not everywhere is equipped to store it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: What are you not getting about my request for numbers? And not “15 million and Bob’s your uncle” numbers? Are you just a parrot repeating tweets? Can’t you analyze what you read? Go work out the numbers. It is kind of irrelevant to my point. Not sure you are actually reading anything being said to you. This is a pointless conversation. I’m out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 44 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: It's also the storage for the vaccine. Not everywhere is equipped to store it. Commandeer property and spaces, if freezers are needed then they should be taken. Activate National Guards and army troops, martial law if need be. Whatever it takes let's get the damn shots to the people that need them, excuses are unacceptable. The freezers and equipment/ spaces can be reimbursed for, once a patient is gone there's no bringing them back. I'd like to see more urgency and I damn sure think headlines of shots in backlog is unacceptable. Eta: we don't necessarily have to get the freezers to every location all at once either. It's pretty simple to move people to where the shots are in many cases. So let us imagine what's possible if we know our capacity for school buses alone- More than 26 million children – over half of America's schoolchildren – ride one of 480,000 schools buses to school each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Speaking of vaccination rates in the UK I was reading this thread which tries to work out how fast they should be aiming to do it, reckoning that it might need almost half a million a day which is 9x the current rate: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, williamjm said: Speaking of vaccination rates in the UK I was reading this thread which tries to work out how fast they should be aiming to do it, reckoning that it might need almost half a million a day which is 9x the current rate: There is an app where you can work out when you might be getting your vaccination, based on age and health status. My report said there were something like 40m people in the queue ahead of me and I’ll probably get the vaccine in September. Honestly not a problem, I’m not in any vulnerable group and so it really is less vital to immunise me so quickly, but at the same time society shouldn’t wait till I’ve got my jab to get back to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveSumm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Numbers, not bullshit. 99%. That’s the number. Is that not true? Genuine question, I have no idea if it’s feasible or not. But 99% in Phase One rollout, that’s the stat in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveSumm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Heartofice said: There is an app where you can work out when you might be getting your vaccination, based on age and health status. My report said there were something like 40m people in the queue ahead of me and I’ll probably get the vaccine in September. Honestly not a problem, I’m not in any vulnerable group and so it really is less vital to immunise me so quickly, but at the same time society shouldn’t wait till I’ve got my jab to get back to normal I’ve seen a few of these estimators around, one had me in June and one in September (I’m a healthy 37 year old). Surely this will change dramatically when the Oxford vaccine is approved though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Covid-19 news here is not good, but not unexpected, at least by realistic people. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-cuomo-covid-update-briefing-coronavirus-20201228-fobemg2ncbdyfpofh2abckdb6e-story.html Quote ALBANY — New York’s COVID stats skyrocketed over the weekend, but it remains unclear if the spike is a post-holiday surge or due to a dip in testing, Gov. Cuomo said Monday. The percentage of New Yorkers who tested positive for the virus rose to 8.3% on Sunday, a 3% uptick from two days prior, which the governor called “statistically improbable.” “This is a jump from Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” Cuomo said during a briefing in Albany. “Two days after Christmas. We have been talking about potential for spread during Christmas; for it to go up in two days is dramatic and very, very fast. “So we’re studying what the uptick in that number actually means. If you look around the country you’ve seen significant upticks in just the past couple of days,” he added. ...The number of people being treated for coronavirus in hospitals, meanwhile, continues to climb with 7,559 patients currently hospitalized and 1,222 in intensive care units. Another 114 New Yorkers died from COVID on Sunday. The state will crack down on fraud related to vaccine distribution [the first ones to jump line for vaccination in New York are exactly who one would expect to it; US and NY laws are not for them https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/27/nyregion/ny-clinic-coronavirus-vaccine.html ] via an executive order from the governor that will raise fines up to $1 million and could lead to the loss of state-issued licenses for health care providers. . . . The move comes as the state investigates Parcare Community Health, an Orange County-based provider, for fraudulently obtaining and distributing doses of COVID-19 vaccine. . . . But They are still determined the Buffalo Bills are going to play to a live stadium audience. Good news, is gov is signing exec orders to prevent evictions and hold up pay increases for all statewide elected officials including himself. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But, the vaccination process is going much slower than anyone who isn't reasonable, intelligent and realistic, could possibly have imagined! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, DaveSumm said: I’ve seen a few of these estimators around, one had me in June and one in September (I’m a healthy 37 year old). Surely this will change dramatically when the Oxford vaccine is approved though? You’d think so as the logistics of it are much simpler and it doesn’t require the same sort of super freezing, but it might be they are accounting for that too. Even with Oxford there are logistical issues around training and getting vaccines out to people , but honestly that should be the top priority, once that phase one is complete we can mostly go back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 What the trolls etc. refuse to admit is their attitudes are killing people, particularly they are killing the people who have to care for those who won't play socially responsibly with others. I'd like them to say what they say to the faces of the health care givers. This is just heartbreaking reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Again we move 26 million people a day on school busses alone. The logistics of getting a million people a day to an inoculation are not insurmountable. It's bad management. Eta: not to mention a lack of imagination and ability to problem solve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mlle. Zabzie Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 58 minutes ago, Zorral said: Covid-19 news here is not good, but not unexpected, at least by realistic people. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-cuomo-covid-update-briefing-coronavirus-20201228-fobemg2ncbdyfpofh2abckdb6e-story.html But They are still determined the Buffalo Bills are going to play to a live stadium audience. Good news, is gov is signing exec orders to prevent evictions and hold up pay increases for all statewide elected officials including himself. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But, the vaccination process is going much slower than anyone who isn't reasonable, intelligent and realistic, could possibly have imagined! I will say the testing drop is absolutely dramatic (based on what I’m seeing on the NY app, which I absolutely check daily because I’m crazy). And I wouldn’t expect the Christmas numbers to really show up until next week. That’s not to say there won’t be a surge next week - I’m expecting it - but I do think the 8% might be a bit of a blip. There’s also going to be a huge surge of testing starting in Jan because schools will be back, so that’s interesting in and of itself. Separately, I will add a few things to the “back to normal” discussion: 1. Many people don’t know they have a pre-existing, especially low-level clotting disorders. Young people are absolutely at risk from this, both in paying the ultimate price of their lives, but perhaps more pertinently, with long term consequences and complications, including enlarged hearts, fatigue, etc. (long Covid). As a middle-aged person who appears to be in excellent health, but who knows she has a low level clotting disorder for a really random reason, I respect these consequences. So, you will likely live, but you may be living with a lower quality of life. 2. Hospitals being overwhelmed is a real thing. Even if as a younger person you are more likely to live, you still may need intervention, or, you know, you might get into a traffic accident or have a regular way heart attack, or otherwise need medical care. Having lived in a place that got overwhelmed, this $h*t is real, and I respect. 3. My appetite for risk is totally different when gambling with life than it is when evaluating other risks. I take lots of risks and advise on risk as part of my job on a daily basis, but as I often joke, the only thing at stake is money. Life and the connections that life brings among humans is just infinitely more valuable. So, while I would take a deal any day of the week where I have a 95% chance of getting all my money back and earning a return, that’s money. The 5% of losing here is greater than the investment. So, the return would have to be MASSIVE for me to take the risk. Put differently, I have a family member who lives alone who needs surgery that is non-elective. I am going to travel to be with her to help (with appropriate testing/quarantine precautions) because the risk of COVID transmission is WAY lower than the benefit gained here in my risk calculation. However, me traveling to Cancun to party has a high risk profile for a pretty low and ephemeral reward. 4. We are never going back to “normal.” We are living in normal now. And normal next week will be different than this, and normal in March 2021 will still be different. Acceptance of our current reality is crucial to managing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Quote The Four Black Deaths, https://www.metafilter.com/189868/The-Big-Bang by Monica H. Green, a historian of medicine and global health, proposes a new interpretation of the Black Death based on DNA evidence. "Together, the documentary and genetic records support the idea that there were four Black Deaths: four explosive proliferations of Yersinia pestis into new environments." The article is available on open access https://academic.oup.com/ahr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ahr/rhaa511/6040962 until 31 December, and has already been stirring up some excitement on Medieval Twitter. This is part of the argument I've been making for some years now, that the Mongols spread the Black Death, because it was endemic on the grasslands since ancient times, due to certain rodents and the horses (and other animals of their herding culture) consuming that grass. It's been found within the stomach contents of herders' horses there, going back thousands of years. Quote ....It could have played a part in the decline of the Mongol Empire. "The Ilkhanate collapsed right when plague was likely reemerging in the Caucasus in the 1330s, and the Golden Horde likewise collapsed in the Volga region upon a second wave of plague in 1359.".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhaenysBee Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 If anybody’s still wondering how and why covid is still spreading... ... a friend of mine and her boyfriend got sick the week before Christmas. First he refused to not go to work after already feeling flu symptoms. Weekend came and he lost his sense of taste and smell. Then he refused to call his workplace or the doctor to get tested - because he doesn’t want a quarantine sticker on the door and because if his workplace thinks he has covid he won’t be allowed to return to work without a negative test. They stayed home for a week with very mild symptoms and didn’t visit family for Christmas. Family visited them and left gifts at their door. Yesterday friend was already posting photos of her drugstore shopping, today they went to a park and residential complex where they want to view flats. They will both return to work after NYE and since the boyfriend’s sense of smell and taste is still barely returning, he will still likely be infectious. I just don’t get. Like how do you not feel the responsibility to test yourself before you leave your house? Even if it costs money. Although since the boyfriend had obvious covid symptoms they could have got free tests through employers or health services. But that’d have meant a whole lot of inconvenience I’m sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Covid-19 is now out of control. It's official. Fauci said it. Biden will address this needless catastrophe, that happened because grown ass men and women will not wear masks due to their anti-Lib pro freedumb ignorant jerkwadness, later today. Shoggoth in chief meanwhile plays golf because, you know, not his problem. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-coronavirus--surge-speech/2020/12/29/47134920-49d3-11eb-a9f4-0e668b9772ba_story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I keep thinking of what Partner's most excellent doctor said this summer: "Masks are the vaccine." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 We had a white Christmas this year. The snow started falling Christmas Eve and on Christmas Day I was out in front of the house, shoveling the walks and cleaning off my car and then shoveling around the car again. While I was shoveling I saw at least three large-ish family groups arrive, presents in hand, going into mom & dad’s/grandmom & grandad’s houses. By large-ish I mean 7 or 8 people, and in all age ranges. There may have been more people there already, more may have come later. I expect a surge in cases in the first week of January, because this was happening across the city, I’m sure. The province announced we were going into lockdown Dec. 26. We had all expected the lockdown announcement for Dec. 24, but no, the government wouldn’t do that to voters, would they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 A tale of living room spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Zorral said: I keep thinking of what Partner's most excellent doctor said this summer: "Masks are the vaccine." It's a shame this sentiment was widely rejected almost everywhere, including this board, nine months ago when it might have made a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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