Covid-19 #21 - The Darkness Before the Dawn

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 minute ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Having been in the snow of northern Labrador in late May, 2019, I have some idea. Fucking frozen tundra.

Respect.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

 

Northern Manitoba.

You have no idea.

Yeah, but you're drunk on maple syrup. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah, but you're drunk on maple syrup. 

But the mosquitoes love maple syrup.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

But the mosquitoes love maple syrup.

That's a selling point? Or are we, dare I say it, needing to steal from @Liffguard......
 

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

@Chataya de Fleury

A reckless diving charge in the US was a problem? That's weird.

I worked in the US for almost 2 decades on TN visas. The last contract I did I offered to draft the letter for my new contract house based on the one I'd developed over the years. They refused saying,"Oh, no. We employ an immigration lawyer for this. We'll get it right to you." That was the only time US customs refused me for an improperly drafted letter.

These clowns give me a letter that was almost 4 pages long after I told them, "Keep it crisp. The more junk you include in it, the more they can quiz me on it when I'm at the counter." In the end, Customs sent me back because it didn't include the street address of the site where I'd be working. My letter would have included that.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

A flame thrower. That'll fix it.

https://jalopnik.com/covid-19-christmas-is-here-as-millions-of-americans-swa-1845929482

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

10 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Canada treats reckless driving (and aggressive driving, or anything more than a standard speeding ticket) the same as they do DUI. It’s called “dangerous driving”. And foreigners are deemed to have earned the maximum penalty, even if in the US being on a cellphone in a construction zone and blowing 0.04 gets you a $300 fine and a stern admonishment to “not do that again” in either country.

DUI / dangerous driving in Canada is now an automatic “serious crime” punishable by 10 years imprisonment. While possessing crack is only a “crime” with a max sentence of 5 years. But that’s what the Canadian government had to do for the Liberal Party dream of “legalize weed”, they had to make any driving offence in their deemed categories a “serious crime” rather than just a “crime”. 

There’s a bit more to it than that, but it’s details of when you were arrested vs when you finished any fines or probation etc and there’s a 5/10 year difference in Canada that has not really worked it’s way to a high court, yet, based on when you were arrested and when the new law was in effect and therefore what one must do to petition for Criminal Rehabilitation. 

Sad, really, since I could be paying so much in Canadian taxes.

It varies from province to province, but yeah, American DUI laws are, on average, very lenient compared to Canada. Mere possession of crack, while not exactly wholesome, wouldn't necessarily be dangerous to society at large. If there's a logic to it I'm guessing that's it.

[Fragile Bird]

2 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

My only beef with it is that *it wasn’t a DUI* yet Canada treated it as one. Ah, well. Their country, their laws.

The standard in both countries is that the situation is viewed in the worst light, because, I think, there’s a suspicion a plea deal was made. I had a client who was prosecuted under a “hybrid” offense, where the crown attorney has the choice to prosecute it as a serious offense where jail time might be given, or as a minor offense where only a fine is involved. My client was a teen and stole a park bench with buddies. The US position was “well the crown could have proceeded by indictment so that’s how we’re treating it”. You are being protected from criminals! 

[Zorral]

"Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests

Researchers warn that the British variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/health/coronavirus-uk-variant.html?

Quote

 

A team of British scientists released a worrying study on Wednesday of the new coronavirus variant sweeping the United Kingdom. They warned that the variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, might be necessary. Even that may not be enough, they noted, saying, “It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine rollout.”

Nicholas Davies, the lead author of the study, said that the model should also serve as a warning to other countries where the variant may have already spread.

“The preliminary findings are pretty convincing that more rapid vaccination is going to be a really important thing for any country that has to deal with this or similar variants,” Dr. Davies, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in an interview.

The study, released by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has not yet undergone review by a scientific journal. The study compares a series of models as predictors of data on infections, hospitalizations and other variables; other researchers are studying the variant in laboratory experiments to determine if it is biologically distinct....

 

To really fix Christmas this year, a big part of the country will be subject to a major storm.  How it manifests will depend on where one lives, of course.  But wind is the constant.  60 MPH here, along with lashings of rain, beginning this evening and through much of tomorrow.  Followed by temperatures plunging within hours from 60 or so to quite below freezing, which will stay around for a while.  Ice!

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

I remember a dispute with a certain Midwest city over income taxes.

Due to their bullying tactics (when they were actually incorrect over an amount due).

I decided to confiscate one of their park benches, which sat nicely in my back yard for quite awhile.

I don't know what that has to do with covid but I see the park bench comment earlier and it actually raises my spirits to remember that chain of events.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I just heard that California crossed into 2 M Covid cases yesterday. I thought to myself, didn’t I just hear they hit 1 M cases? Yup, it took only six weeks to add another million.

And I see the US will hit 19 M cases today. You guys hit 18 M on the 19th. Some months ago I remember thinking Trump will be so happy when India passes you, they were only about a million behind, and now they’re 9 million behind.

Be careful out there, folks.

Oh, about the new mutation. I heard the UK is tops at testing, the US doesn’t constantly do mutation testing like the Brits do. It’s the folks in Oxford, right?

[Mudguard]

55 minutes ago, Zorral said:

"Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests

Researchers warn that the British variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/health/coronavirus-uk-variant.html?

To really fix Christmas this year, a big part of the country will be subject to a major storm.  How it manifests will depend on where one lives, of course.  But wind is the constant.  60 MPH here, along with lashings of rain, beginning this evening and through much of tomorrow.  Followed by temperatures plunging within hours from 60 or so to quite below freezing, which will stay around for a while.  Ice!

 

While the new strain might be more infectious, I wouldn't put much stock into this paper at this time.  First, the paper hasn't been peer reviewed yet.  Second, many of the coronavirus models have been garbage.  They aren't very useful beyond predicting what will happen over the next few weeks, and even then they aren't great at accounting for the efficacy of an invention or super spreading events.  Just way too much uncertainty and variability to account for in their models.  

Over reliance on models have allowed governments to do really stupid things, like Sweden relying on modeling to claim that they were near herd immunity and that they wouldn't have a second wave.  

Also, there's not much that can be done to contain it.  I'm sure it's already spread all over the world by now, including into the US. 

New strains and variants have been popping up throughout the pandemic, and it's reassuring to me that the vaccines, which were developed based on the original strain, are still extremely effective after 9 months.  It suggests that the vaccines are likely to work against the new strain.  

It's going to be a bad winter, but I think we'll be largely past it by the summer.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

12 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@Deadlines? What Deadlines? - I do have to give Canadian immigration credit for the fact that most decisions are made at the consulate level. Hence, your immigration lawyer sends a book of 100+ pages to the consulate, and, if approved, the consulate sends back a one page letter stating “your application is approved. Present this document at the border for entry”.

The one time I got deported, it was because my bosses figured I didn’t need a work permit (convoluted reasons) and the immigration attorneys agreed. However, one braces-wearing 19 year old CBSA dick decided I needed a work permit, and deported me.

First class, though a connection in Detroit. I just asked for the bottle of champagne, and the nice flight attendant gave it to me. 

That all seems incredibly complicated. You were admitted on an L-1 visa (or whatever the Canadian equivalent is)? I assume Canada has a classification that permits intra-company transfers from another country.

Also, I don't know if you were working at a plant site or in an office, but I can tell you that, in Canada, getting an safety, operations, or maintenance job on a plant site without a clean drivers abstract is basically impossible.

27 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I remember a dispute with a certain Midwest city over income taxes.

Due to their bullying tactics (when they were actually incorrect over an amount due).

I decided to confiscate one of their park benches, which sat nicely in my back yard for quite awhile.

RE-SPECT!

17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just heard that California crossed into 2 M Covid cases yesterday. I thought to myself, didn’t I just hear they hit 1 M cases? Yup, it took only six weeks to add another million.

And I see the US will hit 19 M cases today. You guys hit 18 M on the 19th. Some months ago I remember thinking Trump will be so happy when India passes you, they were only about a million behind, and now they’re 9 million behind.

Be careful out there, folks.

Oh, about the new mutation. I heard the UK is tops at testing, the US doesn’t constantly do mutation testing like the Brits do. It’s the folks in Oxford, right?

7.5 million active cases according to Worldometers. If you assume a 1% mortality rate, the number is depressing. The situation in California is crazy.

[Mudguard]

17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just heard that California crossed into 2 M Covid cases yesterday. I thought to myself, didn’t I just hear they hit 1 M cases? Yup, it took only six weeks to add another million.

And I see the US will hit 19 M cases today. You guys hit 18 M on the 19th. Some months ago I remember thinking Trump will be so happy when India passes you, they were only about a million behind, and now they’re 9 million behind.

Be careful out there, folks.

Oh, about the new mutation. I heard the UK is tops at testing, the US doesn’t constantly do mutation testing like the Brits do. It’s the folks in Oxford, right?

The US does sequence a small percentage of virus samples to detect new strains as part of its surveillance programs, but it isn't likely to catch a new strain until it has spread pretty widely among the population.  I assume that Britain is doing something similar.  There's no way that they are sequencing the virus from every single case or even a large percentage of cases.  Too expensive and not enough sequencing throughput to do that, especially when the number of new cases each day is so large in both the UK and the US.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

I mentioned Angela Merkel earlier.  This is from April of this year.

Everyone else is doing it wrong.

 

[rotting sea cow]

11 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The US does sequence a small percentage of virus samples to detect new strains as part of its surveillance programs, but it isn't likely to catch a new strain until it has spread pretty widely among the population.  I assume that Britain is doing something similar.  There's no way that they are sequencing the virus from every single case or even a large percentage of cases.  Too expensive and not enough sequencing throughput to do that, especially when the number of new cases each day is so large in both the UK and the US.

According to several articles, UK sequences a whooping 10% of the positive cases. Most of Europe less than 1%. So, it might have well been detected in UK but arose in another place. Another thing is that apparently the PCR test UK uses is able to distinguish that variant by giving positive in one channel and negative on another, or so I understood. I guess the specificity is not that great, but serves.

Regarding, the infectiousness, what it's actually telling is the replacement rate against already circulating variants. Sure, there might be a few other reasons, like a few associated superspreading events, etc. But also, the variant contains changes in key regions of the spike, so it's indeed a possibility.

[rotting sea cow]

3 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I mentioned Angela Merkel earlier.  This is from April of this year.

Everyone else is doing it wrong.

In comparison Merkel looks good, but there are factors that had helped Germany initially, a lot. Situation has worsened and will continue to worsen.  I'll have Jacinda Arden over Merkel anyday.

I'd like to notice that Germany ministry of health was getting daily  reports about the situation in Wuhan from January on and he did, well, nothing.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

@rotting sea cow

New Zealand's performance on this has been outstanding, and no doubt Germany, along with almost every other western country, was lazy with their initial response.

But referring to the video, there's a directness, a clarity of messaging, an appeal to solidarity that was completely missing from most of the high level dialogue in the United States and the UK. For example, compare this to some of the rambling, contradictory nonsense that was coming out of the Trump administration. 

[Mudguard]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

According to several articles, UK sequences a whooping 10% of the positive cases. Most of Europe less than 1%. So, it might have well been detected in UK but arose in another place. Another thing is that apparently the PCR test UK uses is able to distinguish that variant by giving positive in one channel and negative on another, or so I understood. I guess the specificity is not that great, but serves.

Regarding, the infectiousness, what it's actually telling is the replacement rate against already circulating variants. Sure, there might be a few other reasons, like a few associated superspreading events, etc. But also, the variant contains changes in key regions of the spike, so it's indeed a possibility.

Wow, they are doing a lot of sequencing, and a lot more than the US.  My guess is that the percentage is going to drop over time as the number of new cases increases or remains at a high level.  The UK didn't exceed 10k cases/day until late September, and now they are approaching 40K/day.  For a 3 month period during the summer, they had less than 2K/day.  When the new cases are that low, you can sequence a large fraction if you want.  For example, New Zealand could probably sequence all its cases if it wanted to.

Found an article from the Washington Post from yesterday:

Link to image.

The data looks pretty current based on the number of cases per country.  I'm trying to embed an image, but I'm not sure I'm doing it correctly.  Basically, the UK has sequenced about 7% (157K sequenced) while the US has sequenced 0.3% (51K sequenced).  Australia and New Zealand have sequenced around 50%.

Apparently this new more infectious strain was discovered in September.  It's definitely spread all over the world then (excluding the handful of countries that have essentially eliminated community spread of the virus).  

[Impmk2]

7 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The data looks pretty current based on the number of cases per country.  I'm trying to embed an image, but I'm not sure I'm doing it correctly.  Basically, the UK has sequenced about 7% (157K sequenced) while the US has sequenced 0.3% (51K sequenced).  Australia and New Zealand have sequenced around 50%.

A colleague of mine was chatting to the genomics guy who runs a lot of the sequencing here in South Aus a while back - we were looking to get some of our historical wastewater samples run. He was saying they try to run WGS on pretty much every positive sample. Just the weaker positives (> ct 30) they struggle to get decent reads from.