Covid-19 #21 - The Darkness Before the Dawn

[rotting sea cow]

40 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Taking a step back for a moment, is there a case to be made that the excess deaths in this year will result in a significantly lower mortality rate next year or the year thereafter, given that a lot of highly vulnerable individuals died a year earlier than they would have if Covid hadn’t occurred? Meaning that the average mortality rate over the two or three year period will end up being pretty close to normal?

The thought just crossed my mind. No idea as to its validity or otherwise.

This is called "harvesting effect", after mild flu seasons there is bound to be a deadly one. It is certainly a possibility, but we cannot rely on that unless we have crystal ball that tells us the future of the pandemic. It is perfectly possible we will have several years of excess deaths.

[Raja]

Thought people would like to read this, I know there has been some talk on the disconnect that people have on what is going on in hospitals

 

[Consigliere]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

So, you think these deaths are just of the tip of the iceberg amid widespread infection among the youth?

Yeah, I think there is much more infection among our younger population in the second wave which has led to more hospitalisations among that demo this time around. Our health minister confirmed in late November that the spike in cases has been driven primarily by those between the ages of 15 and 25. Our chief epidemiologist has mentioned that thus far there are no red flags to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause severe illness.

It's worth noting that during our first wave the lockdown regulations were much stricter - there was a ban on alcohol sales, stricter curfew, night clubs were closed, bars were closed and it was winter too so there was less socialising. This time around night clubs have been packed to the rafters in addition to the annual year-end parties held in coastal areas with no masks in sight or any attempts at social distancing which has resulted in several super spreader events.

The regulations are also more lax now too since the country is broke and and actively trying to avoid another hard lockdown. That might not be possible though since the healthcare system is already under severe strain. Gauteng, the most populous and by far the most densely populated area in the country, is all set to see a rapid rise in infections in the next couple of weeks as thousands of holiday makers return from the coast.

[Gorn]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Taking a step back for a moment, is there a case to be made that the excess deaths in this year will result in a significantly lower mortality rate next year or the year thereafter, given that a lot of highly vulnerable individuals died a year earlier than they would have if Covid hadn’t occurred? Meaning that the average mortality rate over the two or three year period will end up being pretty close to normal?

The thought just crossed my mind. No idea as to its validity or otherwise.

I know that this is anecdotal, but people that I know (or are within one degree of separation from) who died of Covid weren't exactly people that you would expect to die with two or three years. The most common comorbidities are diabetes and hypertension, diseases that can be successfully managed with diet and medications for decades.

[Week]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

I know that this is anecdotal, but people that I know (or are within one degree of separation from) who died of Covid weren't exactly people that you would expect to die with two or three years. The most common comorbidities are diabetes and hypertension, diseases that can be successfully managed with diet and medications for decades.

Agreed and considering the well documented disproportionate impact of communities of color and the poor - that is a pretty tone deaf attempt at a silver lining.

[IheartIheartTesla]

538 had a good article asking whether being vaccinated meant you were no longer a 'spreader', and the answer is no one knows.

As the number of vaccinations grows, we should also make it a priority to make clear to everyone that they still need to mask up and socially distance for the sake of others. IMO the probability is high based on priors that vaccination may prevent spread as well, but to quote: :

Quote

Even if a vaccine has trained your immune cells to kick the butt of any SARS-CoV-2 viruses they spot, they might not be able to neutralize the ones resting in your nose, on the other side of your mucous barriers. Those COVID-19 viruses wouldn’t hurt you, but they still might be able to replicate and shed — coughed back out of your nose and mouth and into the community, where they could encounter your unvaccinated friends and loved ones.

One of the casualties of expedited science is that all bases will never be covered, this is one of those (the effects of temperature deviations on the efficacy of vaccine is another)

[Clueless Northman]

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

(Yes I got today an email that an Hotel that I stayed long ago in S. Tirol is open from the 23th onwards, lots of snow! 

Most of Austria and Switzerland are fully open for skiing. This is insane. And there are tens of thousands of Britons that go to these places for the holidays, even now, despite the whole situation - but then, it's allowed and legal, so no wonder some people will do it. So, let's face it, Europe will get that new covid strain, there's just no way to avoid it, due to the sheer lunacy of current governments; we can hope that the spread can be slowed down, though.

  

7 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Taking a step back for a moment, is there a case to be made that the excess deaths in this year will result in a significantly lower mortality rate next year or the year thereafter, given that a lot of highly vulnerable individuals died a year earlier than they would have if Covid hadn’t occurred? Meaning that the average mortality rate over the two or three year period will end up being pretty close to normal?

The thought just crossed my mind. No idea as to its validity or otherwise.

As said, there'll be a lot more deaths due to lung and heart damages in the next couple of years. From what we heard about Sars1 and about Wuhan, we can expect the casualties over 2 years to double.

Besides, most of the deaths were indeed people in bad shape, but these people still had years of lifetime - some studies evaluate the median at 10 years of life lost due to covid, meaning a drop of 5%, more or less. But 2020 will have something like +20% deaths compared to recent average.

 

9 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

538 had a good article asking whether being vaccinated meant you were no longer a 'spreader', and the answer is no one knows.

As the number of vaccinations grows, we should also make it a priority to make clear to everyone that they still need to mask up and socially distance for the sake of others

At this point, the only question left is: who would be at risk because that person can't be vaccinated. Because if 50% of the people are too stupid not to get the vaccine, but everyone can actually get it and be protected, then fuck them. The only people who should be protected in anyway are those whose medical condition would actually prevent them from getting the vaccine - for everyone else, it's personal resonsibility and natural selection. Not in March 2021, mind you, but by the end of next year, definitely - unless some mutation causes havoc.

[williamjm]

5 hours ago, Consigliere said:

Yeah, I think there is much more infection among our younger population in the second wave which has led to more hospitalisations among that demo this time around. Our health minister confirmed in late November that the spike in cases has been driven primarily by those between the ages of 15 and 25. Our chief epidemiologist has mentioned that thus far there are no red flags to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause severe illness.

I've seen some speculation about the new UK variant that one reason it might be spreading faster is that the effect of the mutation is that it becomes better at infecting children. This could explain why cases in parts of England started to go up during lockdown because the schools were still open:

 

Quote

 

Another Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, told the briefing there was strong evidence the new variant is 50% more transmissible than the previous virus.

He also said there was a "hint" the new variant infects children more.

"There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with the virus, there is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children... but we haven't established any sort of causality on that, but we can see that in the data," he said.

 

 

[felice]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Taking a step back for a moment, is there a case to be made that the excess deaths in this year will result in a significantly lower mortality rate next year or the year thereafter, given that a lot of highly vulnerable individuals died a year earlier than they would have if Covid hadn’t occurred? Meaning that the average mortality rate over the two or three year period will end up being pretty close to normal?

If the planet gets struck by a meteor that wipes out all life on the planet, the average mortality rate over the next 70 years or so will end up being pretty close to normal.

[Zorral]

It seems all the experts from everywhere are saying the mutation in the UK is one that ups the transmissible quotient.  Except the people in England and South Africa say it's not.  (But there are all those English who also pretend that BREXIT will make no difference to England except for maybe a couple of days, and by a year from now, it will all be forgotten.

I've been reading one report after another, and except out of England and South Africa, They say transmissibility is greater.

Don't know what to think.  Other than if it is true, it's coming here inevitably, and probably already is, just like it is surely in Europe too.

 

[Consigliere]

41 minutes ago, Zorral said:

I've been reading one report after another, and except out of England and South Africa, They say transmissibility is greater.

Can't speak for the UK but that is not true for SA. Our top epidemiologist, health minister and other scientists gave a televised presentation a couple of days ago where they confirmed that there is evidence of increased transmissibility. Nasopharyngeal swabs are showing a higher viral load for the new variant compared to the variants circulating during our first wave. They also said that what remains unclear is whether or not the new variant has increased pathogenicity. Thus far there's no evidence that it does but it was stressed that we are still early into our second wave and more research and monitoring needs to be done. 

[Heartofice]

46 minutes ago, Zorral said:

It seems all the experts from everywhere are saying the mutation in the UK is one that ups the transmissible quotient.  Except the people in England and South Africa say it's not.  (But there are all those English who also pretend that BREXIT will make no difference to England except for maybe a couple of days, and by a year from now, it will all be forgotten.

I've been reading one report after another, and except out of England and South Africa, They say transmissibility is greater.

Don't know what to think.  Other than if it is true, it's coming here inevitably, and probably already is, just like it is surely in Europe too.

 

Eh? Every report in the UK is saying it’s more easily transmissible. I don’t know where to start with this stuff 

[Consigliere]

1 minute ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

It would be highly unusual for a virus to increase in both transmissibility and “pathogenicity” (I’m assuming here you’re meaning increase in bad outcomes / fatalities).

Yes, they mentioned that this is unlikely. What was unexpected was just how quickly this new variant has become dominant in the country - up to 90% of sequences are now dominated by this new variant. There's also been a shift in the clinical and epidemiological picture in the country with more young people with no comorbidities presenting with serious illness thus far in the course of our second wave.

[Zorral]

Agitation to close our airports too to UK passengers.

Which is a good idea -- the airports should just be closed, period, except for cargo and such.  Which is unlikely to happen.  As far as the mutated more rapidly transmissible virus, surely that horse has left the stable already.

Going to be a horrible horrible winter of the sort most USians can't even imagine -- and doubtless I'm one of those who can't even imagine, though I imagine it all the time.  Because we've never gone through this in a hundred years.  Used to be though, it was different, so nobody ever had the luxury of forgetting what a plague and epidemic were like.  Death was always around the corner from you -- particularly you, a breeding woman -- and especially for babies and children -- and anyone, really.

 

 

 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

And now the young, healthy, privileged, pos, people like Rubio, that were speaking at maskless rallies and mocking the health threats the virus posed.............Shoot straight to the front of the fucking line to get THEIR vaccine!

'Give me a break': See Navarro's reaction to GOP senators getting vaccine

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/21/ana-navarro-marco-rubio-coronavirus-vaccine-sot-vpx-nr.cnn

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Eric Clapton is trending...

Oh, Goood. Eric Clapton and Van Morrison just released an anti-lockdown song. Fan.Tastic.

[Tywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

And now the young, healthy, privileged, pos, people like Rubio, that were speaking at maskless rallies and mocking the health threats the virus posed.............Shoot straight to the front of the fucking line to get THEIR vaccine!

'Give me a break': See Navarro's reaction to GOP senators getting vaccine

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/21/ana-navarro-marco-rubio-coronavirus-vaccine-sot-vpx-nr.cnn

Any elected official that actively denied or downplayed the danger after we knew it was real should get to the back of the fucking line. 

[BigFatCoward]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Any elected official that actively denied or downplayed the danger after we knew it was real should get to the back of the fucking line. 

While I understand the sentiment the goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. If this reassures some of the waverers it's worth it. 

[Fury Resurrected]

51 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

While I understand the sentiment the goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. If this reassures some of the waverers it's worth it. 

This. The antimaskers (who are most likely to contract and spread the disease to everyone else) aren’t gonna run out and get it because they saw Bernie Sanders getting his shot. They have to see it from their own. It’s not fair that they shouldn’t be held accountable for the consequences of their rhetoric- but this is about harm reduction. 

[rotting sea cow]

17 hours ago, williamjm said:

I've seen some speculation about the new UK variant that one reason it might be spreading faster is that the effect of the mutation is that it becomes better at infecting children. This could explain why cases in parts of England started to go up during lockdown because the schools were still open:

I saw that in a local newspaper. Unfortunately they don't mention any source, just speculation. I tried to fish some info across the various covid dashboards in UK without success. Ideally, one would look at the evolution of cases and hospitalizations by age. The only thing I found are some tables provided by the NHS. At the 9/12 the age group 0-17 years still makes the the smallest fraction of cases. Nevertheless, I think it requires monitoring.

12 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

It would be highly unusual for a virus to increase in both transmissibility and “pathogenicity” (I’m assuming here you’re meaning increase in bad outcomes / fatalities).

Yes, it would be unusual. The mutations here are also unusual in the sense they all appeared "at once", i.e. without previously detected intermediaries.

In case someone is interested, these are the minutes of the UK group

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

and the ECDC

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-brief-rapid-increase-sars-cov-2-variant-united-kingdom