Covid-19 #21 - The Darkness Before the Dawn

[Zorral]

2 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

criminal negligence seems a pretty low bar to clear when it comes to the response of these crooked idiots.

One would think so, wouldn't one?  But then look who is on the Supreme Court ... for life ... despite sexual assault, etc.

 

[Tywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

It used to be...even more obvious. I was going to say “worse” but that’s my value judgement creeping in.

Having lived in Georgia for 23 years, I’ve seen this state - and in particular, the area where I live - turn from “do you have a church home?” to “Vote Blue”!!!

To me, it’s still a bit jarring, because it seemed like the change happened all at once, but it didn’t - it happened with people like me moving here, and essentially becoming a majority. 

Isn’t too difficult to find “tradition” if someone is more of that persuasion, though. 

Is that a Georgia thing or an Atlanta thing? I always here people say that they forget they're living in Georgia while they're in the city, but when they leave it it's like going back in time 30-50 years. 

[Tywin et al.]

Peal-clutching is a pretty fun typo Chats! 

ETA: Is it actually possible to clutch a peal?

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Relatives of Italian Covid victims to file lawsuit against leading politicians

I imagine the Italian leaders won't be the only ones subjected to legal action before this is all over.

 

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Gads I hope you're right, starting with thousands right here in the USA.

Unfortunately, Italian law is very different when it comes to culpability and wrongful death. I wouldn't get my hopes up about the USA.

35 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Suburban Atlanta. 

Atlanta itself was always “city-fied” having gay nightclubs and that sort of thing (!!!)* but the suburbs had been bastion of pearl-clutching folks sometimes actually even named Karen (Handel). 

When I moved to Suburban Atlanta, Newt Gingrich was US representative of my district. 
 

 

* I’m using a little irony here, for those who don’t know me, or the fact that I’m bi.

I only ever flew into and out of Atlanta, so that doesn't really count as visiting. In between I drove to Chattannoga for work. Nice drive. Lovely country.

[A True Kaniggit]

56 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Suburban Atlanta. 

Tell your city to have less traffic whenever I pass through. It’s annoying.

 

I wonder how accurate the Worldometer numbers are for the US military. 

162 deaths out of 150,000 confirmed infections. Does that seem about right for a population of 18-45 year olds that stay in relatively good shape for PT tests with access to free, on demand healthcare?

[Tywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Ha! I’ll try. You should have been here for March, April....no one went anywhere. It was like the zombies were going to come out of the woodwork.

So season one of The Walking Dead was kind of accurate? 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

33 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Tell your city to have less traffic whenever I pass through. It’s annoying.

 

I wonder how accurate the Worldometer numbers are for the US military. 

162 deaths out of 150,000 confirmed infections. Does that seem about right for a population of 18-45 year olds that stay in relatively good shape for PT tests with access to free, on demand healthcare?

~60k of those cases are still active, so that's 162 deaths out of ~90,000 cases. That number is still incredibly good. The VA numbers are considerably more grim.

1 hour ago, HoodedCrow said:

Favorite Canadian music is Bare Naked Ladies! Alanis Morrisette. Canadian Brass is a good one for now.

I never much appreciated it at the time, but "Lovers in a Dangerous Time" is my favorite Bare Naked Ladies song. I think it was the first one I heard actually.

I am constitutionally prohibited from even tapping my foot to "If I had a Million Dollars." My mom loves that song and I drove a K-car for 5 years.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 minute ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Oops.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

50 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Tell your city to have less traffic whenever I pass through. It’s annoying.

 

I wonder how accurate the Worldometer numbers are for the US military. 

162 deaths out of 150,000 confirmed infections. Does that seem about right for a population of 18-45 year olds that stay in relatively good shape for PT tests with access to free, on demand healthcare?

There are old dudes in the military too, at least in the movies all the majors, colonels and generals are all over 50, they are not the majority, but they are there. Still 0.1% CFR isn't terrible.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

11 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

My brother was a Major in his late 30s (and retired at that rank) and my dad left after his service obligation in his early 30s as a colonel (a medical degree gets you rank), so those old movies definitely showed a lot of “hard bitten warrior” types.

On another tangent - I am startling to really, really think that there is a maybe lot of media hype. While not dismissing the facts, that North Dakota was the worst state for a while, and my aunt and parents are writing many condolence cards...they didn’t get it. And my brother, ER radiologist in California, has seen “people needing MRI for spine or brain” also presenting with covid, he’s in a bubble of not seeing an overrun ER. 

Seriously - what are we supposed to think?

I know enough people who have had it.  And enough ER nurses to have a healthy fear of it and FOR them.  Also, it's not so much will *I* be ok (statistically, I *probably* will be ok, though non-zero chance I won't be), it's more that this type of mass infection and hospitalization rate is dangerous in and of itself.  Thus, I shouldn't be out gratuitously contributing (either through getting sick myself or inadvertently though asymptomatic spread) to the problem.  But also, given that we have 6-12 more months of this, we also have to make sensible life decisions.  So, we canceled our Christmas travel plans (that we made back in August), but we will send our kids back to school in January in-person if the option is otherwise available.  And I will get vaccinated as soon as it is available to me (aspirationally hopeful for May or June, realistically hopeful, maybe I get a shot for my birthday in late August).  

[A True Kaniggit]

28 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

There are old dudes in the military too, at least in the movies all the majors, colonels and generals are all over 50, they are not the majority, but they are there. Still 0.1% CFR isn't terrible.

I’m aware. But to get to that age in the military you have to have high rank, and there are only so many available slots. Most get forcibly retired before they reach that age. 

The numbers are low enough I decided to ignore them. 

[The Anti-Targ]

3 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I’m aware. But to get to that age in the military you have to have high rank, and there are only so many available slots. Most get forcibly retired before they reach that age. 

The numbers are low enough i decided to ignore them. 

You can only ignore the over 50s if you know the age distribution of the deaths. I don't know that information, but it's essential to know if you want to query a death stat as being a bad look for a population that skews young, fit and healthy.

[A True Kaniggit]

17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

You can only ignore the over 50s if you know the age distribution of the deaths. I don't know that information, but it's essential to know if you want to query a death stat as being a bad look for a population that skews young, fit and healthy.

Dang. It’s doesn’t break it down by age. It seems Worldometer actually gets those numbers from this site. 

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus/

Turns out those, “military” stats included contractors, dependents, and other civilian workers. 

Edit: So for straight up military: 14 deaths from 99,628 cases, with 61,364 recovered. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Dang. It’s doesn’t break it down by age. It seems Worldometer actually gets those numbers from this site. 

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus/

Turns out those, “military” stats included contractors, dependents, and other civilian workers. 

Which introduces the possibility of a higher proportion of people not only being older, but also unfit and/or unhealthy.

[Zorral]

Perhaps white folks give themselves too much credit for the bluing of Atlanta and other parts of Georgia.  Shouldn't the brilliant younger generation of black activists get just a teeny bit of ,that credit, people like, o Stacey Abrams  who did turn out the vote for Biden? Actively!  On the ground, people to people and in many other ways, that aren't making pronouncements on a social media board! 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/10/stacey-abramss-success-georgia-builds-generations-black-womens-organizing/

To give credit to one's white, middle-class, female move to Atlanta for the Biden win there is just as tone-deaf as one can possibly get, and why this country can't have nice things.

Moreover it would have been so all along probably except for nearly two centuries now of voter intimidatation, voter repression and gerrymandering to keep Black folks from even voting, Not to mention all the other methods to keep black folks from getting political offices, and the rest.

And now the same sorts patting themselves on the back for being such a liburrrral influence on Atlanta >!< Hot 'Lanta! -- think people over 50, people with 'morbidities' -- which includes skin color I guess -- should just die and let covid rip through the world coz you know the economy.  

There's a problem or three or six with these declarations doncha think?

 

[Clueless Northman]

10 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Seriously - what are we supposed to think? I have no idea. 

Just look at the insane excess mortality during the peaks.

Previously, it was reported that Belgium had an astounding death rate. Well, it's not just Belgium, it's just that Belgium decided to count as covid-deaths everyone who seemed to have died from it, instead of playing games to lie to the population and let people think it's not that bad. And even when counting every single covid-related death, Belgium is still under the excess mortality. It is, of course, way worse in all other American and European countries, with at times half as many deaths as usual during the month, yet way less than that officially reported.

 

17 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

When China was being hit, all western media was almost celebrating and writing long articles how mismanaged was the epidemic in China and why it will never happen in the West.  Then Italy and Spain were badly hit and of course, lots of articles how the health care in these countries was "groaning under the pressure" (Portugal and Greece were doing pretty well, but they were ignored). Then, when the pandemic was hitting France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK and Switzerland, you would never read articles with the same tone.

Frankly, it's worse than that, and our respective MSM have a lot to answer for, because they fucked up big time. Not only were they in full racist mode like "Oh look these backwards inferiors, they're struggling as if they still lived in the Middle-Ages", yet never mention anymore that some countries, China to begin with, have now pretty much beaten back the virus, while gleefully noticing every time a major city goes into lockdown because they just got a handful of cases - barely noticing that China then tests 10 mio people in a couple of day, just to be sure. Oh no, nothing that could make China look better than us is acceptable.

No, they didn't just stop there, they went full ideological cretins, because then comes the ultimate suicidal mad move: when China and Russia announced they were working on vaccines, then are testing them, they were treated like deluded fools by Western media, they were ridiculed, pretty much all reports focusing on "that's too rushed, their shit isn't reliable, it won't work, will have plenty of nasty side-effects, and will kill more people than the virus, and look, they're using their people and military as guinea pigs - folks, they're just 3rd world countries, who could trust anything they make?". Then 2 months later, Western pharma manage to bring up their own efficient vaccines, and the same papers claim a huge moral and technological victory - then governments and media act surprised when half the people are doubtful and think the vaccines have been rushed, won't work, will harm them. This is exactly what you've trained your readers/viewers to think for weeks when reporting about Chinese and Russian research, you dumb fuckers: youv'e turned your shit-for-brains audience into moronic anti-vaxxers, don't act surprised now because you fucked up completely. Heck, people consider their own governments as tyrannical creeps, the way you blamed China to be a tyrannical totalitarian careless monster when fighting the virus, then when vaccinating people.

I'm fuckign done with our governments and with our media, the former for being hypocritical mass murderers, the latter for being pure propaganda outlets that mostly brainwash people with "our government acted in the best possible way, no one did better or could've done better" instead of calling them out for literally killing their own people by the tens of thousands. Suing them for "criminal negligence" is, as far as I'm concerned, pretty much a joke that sadly won't even be played out, when what they knowingly and willingly did is way way worse than that and will go down in history books, 100 or 150 years from now, with the deeds of Idi Amin Dada and Saddam Hussein, or the various famines across Mao's China and Stalin's USSR.

[Fragile Bird]

21 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@Mlle. Zabzie - Given the fact that I’m fumble fingered, and I can’t edit my post to RESPOND to the quote....

I’m in the same place.

My concern - 

I really have to wonder if we wrecked the economy for not much, over the course of human history. Did we just give the younger generation a Great Depression for the sake of people over the age of 80, and definitely over 65??

We all die sometime. 

That’s what I think when I think bleak thoughts.

Nope. Things would be much, much worse if the US hadn’t done anything. The health system would be totally fractured, the deaths would be much higher. Remember the “do nothing” prediction was 200,000 to 1.7 M dead, and right now the prediction is 500,000 dead by the end of March. The worst case was up to 20 M people needing to be hospitalized. No way could the hospital system cope with that. Even with the lower numbers so far, surgeries are likely a year to a year and a half behind schedule.

I know that I have cataracts forming in my eyes. I know from experience with my mom and others that after slow deterioration they can get very bad quickly. I don’t know what I’d do if I were told I’d need to wait a year and a half for surgery. I did everything for my mom once her eyes got bad, I don’t have a daughter who can look after me that way. There are many other conditions that are backlogged now, knee and hip surgeries for example. Let’s not even think of more serious conditions like cancers that have to be treated. And then there’s the evidence that young people who got “mild” cases may actually have permanent damage to various organs.

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

My sister in law is due to get the first part of the vaccine today.  She's an Ambulance Technician so is getting it because of front line health care and not because she is old or vunrable (due to health).  I'll report back on any after effects.

Originally she was reluctant to get the vaccine straight away due to the speed it was developed so I'm really glad she has had a change of mind.

[DireWolfSpirit]

9 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Just look at the insane excess mortality during the peaks

For the 25-44 age group it suggests covid-19 deaths have been under reported, according to this recent study- 

Blah!!!! Unable to paste the study, it's from a site called cdn.jamanetwork.com if that helps?

Conclusion-

These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population.

They have a table showing these monthly excess deaths in the thousands and also showing only tiny percentages being attributed (reported as) to covid-19.

They show similar under reporting across other age groups in additional studies as well. 

I'm convinced, I wish I could paste the actual studies over here though. The reported covid-19 deaths, in no realistic way, match the huge, otherwise unexplained, excess deaths year over year, here in the U.S.

Eta: Playing politics with the reporting of the covid-19 deaths has long been a concern because of the red state Governors that were willing to do anything during election season to cover for their "Dear leader."

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@Mlle. Zabzie - Given the fact that I’m fumble fingered, and I can’t edit my post to RESPOND to the quote....

I’m in the same place.

My concern - 

I really have to wonder if we wrecked the economy for not much, over the course of human history. Did we just give the younger generation a Great Depression for the sake of people over the age of 80, and definitely over 65??

We all die sometime. 

That’s what I think when I think bleak thoughts.

You also have to consider '08, and how that impacted so many people across the board. But no, we didn't just give younger generations some kind of grime fiscal outlook, we've been doing that since your parents were saying that disco isn't dead.