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NFL 2021 By Henne Means Necessary


mcbigski

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Just saw the Niners are the betting favorites to get Stafford.  Still not sure how I feel about him.  Frankly initially I was reticent to give up the 12th pick for him - I'd be fine with a late first round pick but that's pretty high.  Talked myself into that since, especially once realizing he's actually cheaper than Garoppolo - I assumed he was more expensive.

However, definitely do not think they should also give up this year's 2nd rounder, or even the 3rd round comp pick for him.  And considering the bidding war I suspect they'll have to.  I guess maybe next year's second is as high as I'd go.

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17 hours ago, Rhom said:

Soooo... you hire the “pass game coordinator” for the team that sets rushing records for their QB.  What could possibly go wrong?!!?

:dunno:

Hiring the passing game coordinator from a team whose QB's main weakness is passing.  

That's very Brownsian.  

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Just saw the Niners are the betting favorites to get Stafford.  Still not sure how I feel about him.  Frankly initially I was reticent to give up the 12th pick for him - I'd be fine with a late first round pick but that's pretty high.  Talked myself into that since, especially once realizing he's actually cheaper than Garoppolo - I assumed he was more expensive.

However, definitely do not think they should also give up this year's 2nd rounder, or even the 3rd round comp pick for him.  And considering the bidding war I suspect they'll have to.  I guess maybe next year's second is as high as I'd go.

I think the Niners would be the division favorites if they got Stafford. He’s a bit past his prime, but the key is he can still make all the throws and attack the field vertically, things that Jimmy can’t always do. The offense will be really good if the running game returns to form.

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think the Niners would be the division favorites if they got Stafford.

They'd be conference favorites with Stafford, assuming health and expected re-signings.  The question is how much draft capital to give up.

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14 minutes ago, DMC said:

They'd be conference favorites with Stafford, assuming health and expected re-signings.  The question is how much draft capital to give up.

It’s a tough call. It’s not like with Watson where you can grossly overpay and still sleep perfectly fine at night. Stafford will be 33 at the start of the next season, he’s had a lot of injuries over the years and while his deal looks good now, it won’t in a few years if/when you resign him. He’s probably worth a mid-first rounder and another pick, but I’d try to offer two seconds and a third for him.

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I'd probably do that - if the third is next year's.  Not sure the Lions would take it though.

Well there's a few moving factors. First, I think you'd want to get the trade done quickly. If other QBs get trade for much larger packages the Lions will absolutely ask for more. They might also accept equal value, but hold the line on a first rounder. If so I'd trade next year's first, but I'd struggle with this year's because it's too high to part with for maybe a three year window with Stafford. Lastly, and this is the real unknown, are the Lion's looking to just do what's in their best interest or are they going to be nice to Stafford and send him somewhere he wants to go? If they're willing to do the latter, they'll take a below market deal. 

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8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'd struggle with this year's because it's too high to part with for maybe a three year window with Stafford.

Yeah me too, that's my main issue.  I don't think the Lions are gonna take a below market deal to make Stafford happy.  At least I wouldn't count on it.

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23 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah me too, that's my main issue.  I don't think the Lions are gonna take a below market deal to make Stafford happy.  At least I wouldn't count on it.

I would if I was them, but it would be because I'd have to admit to myself that I didn't do right by him. Regardless, maybe they won't take a below market deal, but we still don't know what the market is, hence why I'd want to move fast. I don't know what impact a Watson trade would have on Stafford's value, but say the Rams somehow trick someone into giving them a first for Goff. If that happens Stafford would command at least a first and probably a fair bit more than that. 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

hence why I'd want to move fast.

This is a lot easier said than done.  It's quite possible the Lions will wait to see how the market plays out before pulling the trigger on any deal, I know I would.  As for someone giving up a first for Goff, I feel that type of stupidity isn't fair to count as market price.

1 minute ago, briantw said:

Holy shit.  I didn't realize the guy the Texans hired was 65 years old!  

He's still five years away from joining the Biden administration.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

He's still five years away from joining the Biden administration.

You do kind of have to respect the Texans' commitment to going completely against the grain.  Every team is racing to hire the next young offensive rising star genius to guide their team for the next decade and the Texans went with an NFL nobody who will be retired in three years (but getting paid for five!).

That's a bold strategy, Cotton.  Let's see how it plays out.

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14 minutes ago, DMC said:

This is a lot easier said than done.  It's quite possible the Lions will wait to see how the market plays out before pulling the trigger on any deal, I know I would.  As for someone giving up a first for Goff, I feel that type of stupidity isn't fair to count as market price.

I agree with both points, but I keep hearing insiders say the Stafford will probably be the first guy traded and it seems like the consensus is he's going to either the Niners or Colts. Both are good fits for him. 

And yeah, it would be dumb to just trade for Goff, let alone give up a first for him, but I can still see it happening. Like with dating, there's always that one person who thinks they're the one that can finally make them change. Plus, the Vikes did toss a first for Bradford and it wouldn't be completely shocking if the Rams could do that with Goff given the latter is probably better at this point than Bradford was even if he's dumber than a box of rocks.

15 minutes ago, briantw said:

You do kind of have to respect the Texans' commitment to going completely against the grain.  Every team is racing to hire the next young offensive rising star genius to guide their team for the next decade and the Texans went with an NFL nobody who will be retired in three years (but getting paid for five!).

That's a bold strategy, Cotton.  Let's see how it plays out.

I need to see two lists. First, the sheer number of people they reached out to and the second one is who among those laughed them off the line.

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16 hours ago, DMC said:

Just saw the Niners are the betting favorites to get Stafford.  Still not sure how I feel about him.  Frankly initially I was reticent to give up the 12th pick for him - I'd be fine with a late first round pick but that's pretty high.  Talked myself into that since, especially once realizing he's actually cheaper than Garoppolo - I assumed he was more expensive.

However, definitely do not think they should also give up this year's 2nd rounder, or even the 3rd round comp pick for him.  And considering the bidding war I suspect they'll have to.  I guess maybe next year's second is as high as I'd go.

The Lions would probably take the 12th overall and be happy. Heck they may prefer a later pick, but also a couple of seconds including this years since they have so many needs.

And for those who think that's too much, but also think that he makes them a contender...isn't that what you want? I mean he's relatively cheap for his production level and by all accounts he is what they need to get them to the next level versus a draft pick that could be an (avg/bust/pro bowler) take your pick player at a not as important position.  

14 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It’s a tough call. It’s not like with Watson where you can grossly overpay and still sleep perfectly fine at night. Stafford will be 33 at the start of the next season, he’s had a lot of injuries over the years and while his deal looks good now, it won’t in a few years if/when you resign him. He’s probably worth a mid-first rounder and another pick, but I’d try to offer two seconds and a third for him.

If he is still there in a few years and you resign him it's because he took you to the SB and you are happy. If he didn't then they wouldn't resign him, simple as that. But at least they can show their team and fan base that they gave it all they had.

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45 minutes ago, PyroclasticFlow said:

Also the Lions to receive two 1st rounders and a 3rd so I think Detroit did pretty decent for themselves and did right by Mathew sending him to a team that will be likely playoff bound.

I like the trade for both parties.

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