US Politics - It's a new dawn. It's a new day. It's a new life for US

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I think Ted Cruz has a humiliation fetish

Seth Rogen also made a film (about making a porno) in Pittsburgh, doing far more for its citizens than Ted Cruz ever has or will.

[Mindwalker]

https://deadstate.org/trumps-anti-union-labor-board-attorney-refused-to-step-down-so-biden-fired-him/

Trump’s anti-union labor board attorney refused to step down — so Biden fired him

 

At today's press briefing at the WH, CJ answered questions about abolishing the filibuster with "bipartisanship".

[Zorral]

16 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I think Ted Cruz has a humiliation fetish

 

Quote

...if you’re a union member...

Jon Snow Cruz knows nothing, not a surprise.

Biden just this morning announced this administration is pro-union, and, further, fired the Reagan era Air Flight Controllers Union buster, Peter Robb.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/20/biden-fires-nlrb-peter-robb/

[DMC]

1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

All else being equal, it will absolutely tank their chances.

LOL, there's no way you know this, and the 2010 example suggests the opposite.  On top of all that, even if the filibuster was abolished, how much more legislation do you think you're gonna get through with Manchin or a GOP Senator as the 50th vote anyway?  Further, the argument seems to be based on the premise that two omnibus-style reconciliation bills is a pittance.  That's a pretty damn good haul for any single term, let alone two years.

3 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Sinema would vote for filibuster abolishment/reform if Manchin does. She has far less clout at this point in time.

I agree with this, although not really due to clout.  If you get Manchin you're gonna get Sinema.  She's more pliable and the leadership is in a position to offer her more - namely prime committee spots/ranks.  Manchin is already in line to be chair of his preferred committee (Energy).

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Jon Snow Cruz knows nothing, not a surprise.

Biden just this morning announced this administration is pro-union, and, further, fired the Reagan era Air Flight Controllers Union buster, Peter Robb.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/20/biden-fires-nlrb-peter-robb/

You're forgetting that Ted Cruz is speaking to people who don't live in reality.

[Mindwalker]

Oh dear. CJ (It'll be a while until I remember her name) was getting roasted and was flailing quite a bit.

Bernie memes are a thing right now.

 

[Tywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

Further, the argument seems to be based on the premise that two omnibus-style reconciliation bills is a pittance.  That's a pretty damn good haul for any single term, let alone two years.

Can't they get three done before the 2022 elections, with the last one happening just before Election Day?

[Mindwalker]

OK, last ones. Btw., Bernie says it makes people aware that they make good mittens in Vermont.

 

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Can't they get three done before the 2022 elections, with the last one happening just before Election Day?

I mean, theoretically yes, but getting a reconciliation bill passed and signed in the month before the midterms sounds incredibly unlikely.  Unless we're still in dire need of stimulus/relief, in which case the electoral prospects are almost certainly pretty damn bad.

[Mindwalker]

Sorry if this was already coveed.

 

[Tywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, theoretically yes, but getting a reconciliation bill passed and signed in the month before the midterms sounds incredibly unlikely.  Unless we're still in dire need of stimulus/relief, in which case the electoral prospects are almost certainly pretty damn bad.

I'm not sure how long the average reconciliation process takes, but it seems possible that they could lay the tracks ahead of time and have it ready to roll out the moment the new fiscal year starts. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

C’mon man, McConnell is already pulling obstructionist shit. He’s just going to stop doing that?

That wasn't my point at all.  My point is what policies do you think gets Manchin's vote without the filibuster?  Mine would be the same as what I mentioned earlier to Grim as possible if you lowered the threshold to 55 - HR1, the current immigration proposal, infrastructure, some climate change (although let's remember where Manchin is from), and the minimum wage hike.  That's all great, but I don't think you're getting much more than that.  And I'm not clear how that's going to significantly increase reelection chances for most members, outside of the immigration bill.

9 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

And Obama got much more than two bills done during his 1st two years, and Dems still got wiped out. You think people are going to be more forgiving when the economic situation is far worse?

I don't know what you're arguing here.  I'm saying many Dems got shellacked because of their vote for the ACA.  Presumably you want to abolish the filibuster to pass a bill that would similarly be a decidedly liberal initiative, and therefore just as likely to encounter such electoral backlash.

11 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Of course more legislation isn’t guaranteed, but you can’t possibly be arguing that it wouldn’t be easier to pass.

No of course not, see above.

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

it seems possible that they could lay the tracks ahead of time and have it ready to roll out the moment the new fiscal year starts. 

It is definitely possible, but I'm saying the impetus to pass another bill while running for reelection is only going to be there if the environment sucks ass for the Democrats (or the incumbent party).

[Tywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

And Obama got much more than two bills done during his 1st two years, and Dems still got wiped out. You think people are going to be more forgiving when the economic situation is far worse?.

We can't understate the role racism played in that outcome. Biden will not face the same kind of hateful backlash, and I am of the opinion that the events of the 6th really hit home with a lot of Republicans, including some elected officials in Congress. I could be wrong regarding the last part, but it's way too early to know for sure.

[IheartIheartTesla]

I think Ted Cruz has decided he wants to be Trump v2.0, one of whose appeals was in 'owning the libs'. That's why he gets into these Twitter fights with AOC, Seth Rogen, what have you. However, unlike Trump, there is something off about his interactions on social media. I think its because he engages in these arguments rather than doing hit-and-runs, which is not the way to go for his supposed base.

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

It is definitely possible, but I'm saying the impetus to pass another bill while running for reelection is only going to be there if the environment sucks ass for the Democrats (or the incumbent party).

I'm not sure I entirely agree. You're right that if the environment is bad for Dems, a last minute Hail Mary would probably not work, but what if reconciliation really is the only way to get things done? If the environment isn't bad for Dems, there's no downside to possibly pushing through a third package, especially if it contained a number of popular policies. I guess I'd compare it to Republicans not going along with a generous stimulus package before the election. Why? There was only upside for them, and if they had done so Trump could have possibly won given the margins in a few key states weren't that large. Dems could benefit by learning from their mistake.

[GrimTuesday]

2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think Ted Cruz has decided he wants to be Trump v2.0, one of whose appeals was in 'owning the libs'. That's why he gets into these Twitter fights with AOC, Seth Rogen, what have you. However, unlike Trump, there is something off about his interactions on social media. I think its because he engages in these arguments rather than doing hit-and-runs, which is not the way to go for his supposed base.

Trump is a sassy bitch. If he wasn't president and didn't have so much sway the crazy motherfuckers of the world, he would be top tier twitter content. Ted Cruz is just that guy who shows up at the high school party to try and debate lord people who just want to have fun and chill, then after no one wants to engage with his bullshit he calls in a noise complaint.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If the environment isn't bad for Dems, there's no downside to possibly pushing through a third package, especially if it contained a number of popular policies.

If we still need a third stimulus - that is going to get Manchin's vote no less - by October 2022, I think the conditions are invariably bad for Dems.  I mean, if you're referring to some minor shit, sure, I guess.

[Tywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think Ted Cruz has decided he wants to be Trump v2.0, one of whose appeals was in 'owning the libs'. That's why he gets into these Twitter fights with AOC, Seth Rogen, what have you. However, unlike Trump, there is something off about his interactions on social media. I think its because he engages in these arguments rather than doing hit-and-runs, which is not the way to go for his supposed base.

Ted Cruz has the easiest attack line against him ever and damn Beto for not going there:

"While at Harvard Law (say it in that smug Harvard way), Ted Cruz refused to study with anyone who didn't get their undergraduate degree from Harvard, Yale or Princeton. That means Ted Cruz looks down on 99.9% of us. Can you vote for a man you know thinks you're pathetic and less than him? No real Texan can in my book, but then again, Ted isn't a real Texan to begin with."

[Kalbear]

26 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

And Obama got much more than two bills done during his 1st two years, and Dems still got wiped out. You think people are going to be more forgiving when the economic situation is far worse?

He had 60 votes in the senate. And even he didn't do enough with his power; he could have potentially reshaped the US for generations. But he blew it.

Situation is a lot different now. 

I don't think that people are going to be more or less forgiving. I don't think it matters. 74 million people voted for Trump. Think things like their actual situation matter?

26 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

And surely you’re not arguing that it would be harder to pass legislation with 50 votes than it would be to overcome a filibuster with 60 votes? That’s just a nonsensical argument. Of course more legislation isn’t guaranteed, but you can’t possibly be arguing that it wouldn’t be easier to pass.

I would be arguing that it's easier to pass legislation via reconciliation with 50 votes if those votes are friendly than it is to constantly push on people to get rid of the filibuster and get nothing.

[Tywin et al.]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

If we still need a third stimulus - that is going to get Manchin's vote no less - by October 2022, I think the conditions are invariably bad for Dems.  I mean, if you're referring to some minor shit, sure, I guess.

Oh sorry, to clarify, I wasn't specifically talking about another stimulus package related to COVID. Just the logistics of getting a third spending bill through.