UK Politics - You can't correct a mistake, if you don't admit it was a mistake

[Derfel Cadarn]

22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That's considerate. The British government has given domestic farmers ten years to find other jobs.

Have they said anything about the Australian meat not meeting UK standards? Or will they just lower the standards?

[Werthead]

50 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Have they said anything about the Australian meat not meeting UK standards? Or will they just lower the standards?

The minister pointblank refused to answer the question on the news, so we'll see.

[Heartofice]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

That's considerate. The British government has given domestic farmers ten years to find other jobs.

What do you think the current level of beef imports from Australia is and what sort of levels will it need to increase to have any meaningful effect on British farmers. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

18 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

What do you think the current level of beef imports from Australia is and what sort of levels will it need to increase to have any meaningful effect on British farmers. 

If its cheaper than UK-produced meat (and it may well end up so, as there’s an Australian farm bigger than Israel and about 10% UK landmass), then they can in theory flood the market with cheap meat. 

[Heartofice]

Just now, Derfel Cadarn said:

If its cheaper than UK-produced meat (and it may well end up so, as there’s an Australian farm bigger than Israel and about 10% UK landmass), then they can in theory flood the market with cheap meat. 

If the imports of Aussie beef increased 10x what it is now it would still only account for a tenth of uk beef imports. The idea that beef from the other side of the planet is going to flood the market is just proper scaremongering, slow news day kind of thing. Plus there is the UK beef export market. 
 

I do chuckle a bit, the UK signs a bunch of new trade deals, and the same old outlets scrabble around for an angle to make it look like a catastrophe. Haven’t we learnt that lesson yet ?

[Werthead]

4 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

If its cheaper than UK-produced meat (and it may well end up so, as there’s an Australian farm bigger than Israel and about 10% UK landmass), then they can in theory flood the market with cheap meat. 

Yup. Australia has significant capacity remaining in food production (i.e. they haven't topped out the maximum of their food capacity because they haven't needed to) so they can increase output to account for the new trade deal with the UK. So can New Zealand, to a lesser extent. The only reason Australia hasn't done that already is the UK Global Tariff makes their meat uncompetitive in our marketplace. Removing that tariff reverses that pretty much instantly, and with modern freezer ships the fact that the new market is on the other side of the planet is irrelevant.

An additional probability is a renewal of a trade war between China and western countries and further sanctions and reductions in Australia's food imports to China, currently one of its biggest customers for meat. With new markets elsewhere, Australia no longer needs to be careful about pissing off China (any more than it has, Chinese-Australian relations are at their worst in some considerable time) and can look to transfer some of the volume they sell to China to other countries, including us.

UK agricultural concerns and farmers' unions have been pushing the UK government to focus on food import markets to strengthen our exports, particularly in South-East Asia, but of course that puts us and our rather limited output in competition with Australia and New Zealand, not to mention the US and the EU (Ireland in particular produces a ridiculous amount of food relative to its size and population), which is not so great for us.

The UK farming sector is also on life support as it is. Even a modest amount of imports coming into the country from Australia could put numerous UK farms under. And more concerning is that the Australian deal will likely be a prototype for the big US deal, which is considerably more concerning.

On the plus side of things, Australia's long-term agricultural prospects are concerning due to climate change, so the remainder of the country may turn into a massive desert and remove that source of competition. I'm not 100% sure that'd be something to celebrate though.

[Derfel Cadarn]

6 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

If the imports of Aussie beef increased 10x what it is now it would still only account for a tenth of uk beef imports. The idea that beef from the other side of the planet is going to flood the market is just proper scaremongering, slow news day kind of thing. Plus there is the UK beef export market. 
 

I do chuckle a bit, the UK signs a bunch of new trade deals, and the same old outlets scrabble around for an angle to make it look like a catastrophe. Haven’t we learnt that lesson yet ?

Haven’t you learned the lesson that Brexit has been an utter fuck-up? The world is lining up, eyeing the UK as a carcass prime for carving up. 
In order to import Australian meat (and given our supposed push to be green, why the fuck are we importing meat from the other side of the world rather than from ... Europe?), either they have to adhere to our food standards, or we have to lower our standards (and accept growth hormones etc).

Guess which it will be?

A US deal will be even worse as they’ll insist that packaging excludes the country of origin.

[A wilding]

Also to the point, this single trade deal they have signed will, by their own estimate, boost the UK's economy by 0.02% once the the 15 years ramp up is over. A flea bite compared to trade with the EU. Though I suppose that if Australia does start flooding the UK with their meat, then that may increase it a bit more.

[Heartofice]

11 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Haven’t you learned the lesson that Brexit has been an utter fuck-up? The world is lining up, eyeing the UK as a carcass prime for carving up. 
In order to import Australian meat (and given our supposed push to be green, why the fuck are we importing meat from the other side of the world rather than from ... Europe?), either they have to adhere to our food standards, or we have to lower our standards (and accept growth hormones etc).

Guess which it will be?

A US deal will be even worse as they’ll insist that packaging excludes the country of origin.

Right so I’m expected to believe that meat from across the planet , which is apparently of a lower standard will push out prime British beef because it’s a little cheaper? Aussie beef imports are tiny right now, insignificant. There doesn’t really seem to be any evidence that it’s going to be pushing British farmers out of business any time soon.

Quote

Brexit has been an utter fuck-up? The world is lining up, eyeing the UK as a carcass prime for carving up.

Lol.

[Heartofice]

8 minutes ago, A wilding said:

Also to the point, this single trade deal they have signed will, by their own estimate, boost the UK's economy by 0.02% once the the 15 years ramp up is over. A flea bite compared to trade with the EU. Though I suppose that if Australia does start flooding the UK with their meat, then that may increase it a bit more.

The Oz trade deal is really more political than economic at the moment, it’s also a first step towards the UK joining the CPTPP and opening up trade to a more global audience, not just the EU.

[john]

Wasn’t there recently a huge fuss about not being able to send chilled sausages to NI? Now we’re trumpeting the ability to import frozen beef. Why not just freeze the bloody sausages then.

[Raja]

So much winning.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

The Oz trade deal is really more political than economic at the moment, it’s also a first step towards the UK joining the CPTPP and opening up trade to a more global audience, not just the EU.

Maybe if we negotiate really hard, we could ... join the EU, and have tariff-free access to markets right on our doorstep!

Then the EU as a bloc could negotiate with the Asian blocs from a position of strength

[Heartofice]

6 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Maybe if we negotiate really hard, we could ... join the EU, and have tariff-free access to markets right on our doorstep!

Then the EU as a bloc could negotiate with the Asian blocs from a position of strength

You say that as if the EU was a trading bloc

[ljkeane]

On 6/15/2021 at 3:17 AM, Pebble thats Stubby said:

Yes you have to cancel first,  before you can book a new one.  one of the reasons I did this in the middle of the night was to give me confidence I could easily re-book my initial appointment if there was none available.

I stole your idea and changed my second appointment last night. I've managed to move it a couple of weeks earlier and, more importantly, changed the location from one that would have been about a 70 minute round trip to one about 10 minutes away. There actually were a decent number of appointments available anyway so I probably didn't need to be too concerned about losing my previous one.

Speaking of vaccination appointments they're apparently available to people over 21 now.

[Maltaran]

6 hours ago, Heartofice said:

You say that as if the EU was a trading bloc

Are you saying it isn’t? 

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, Zlatan Ibrahimaltvic said:

Are you saying it isn’t? 

It’s a political project first and foremost. 

[Maltaran]

Just now, Heartofice said:

It’s a political project first and foremost. 

But among all the other things that it is, it is a trading bloc

[Heartofice]

17 minutes ago, Zlatan Ibrahimaltvic said:

But among all the other things that it is, it is a trading bloc

It’s predominantly a political project. Thinking of it as a mere trading bloc as you would other trading blocs really highlights how it really isn’t just a trading bloc

[A wilding]

Indeed. It imposes regulatory harmony on its members (hence this "sausages" issue in Northern Island), er ... just like trading blocs do.