Covid-19 #39: Shooting the Messenger

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Ormond said:

You could reframe this the other way, you know. If humans in general were really this bad, incidents like this wouldn't be news because they would be happening everywhere every day.

99% of even anti-mask and anti-vaccination crazies will never assault anyone over this. Maybe we shouldn't be completely negative about humans in general just because it's not 100%?

There are times I despair of humanity because of the actions of those people, and it seems like they are many more of them than 1% of the nasty group. People blocking hospitals in cities across Canada because they are anti-vaccine. Across Canada, ffs! Demonstrators showing up at every event the prime minister had this election, cursing and one (yes, just one) idiot even throwing stones at him, because of Trudeau’s strongly worded messages about getting vaccinated. Hundreds of people lined up at a doctor’s office here because the guy was selling “medical certificates” for $20 a pop stating they didn’t need to get vaccinated.

And this is just on the topic of vaccines. We could start listing a whole group of other things people are obnoxious about. “Good” people included! 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

5 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Wife (nurse) got appt for 3rd jag. I’ll probably hear in the coming weeks. (We’re in the UK).

Three Jaguars? Nurses must do very well in the UK.

[Zorral]

Despite the subject, this piece effectively shows just how awful this disease is, how awful to die from it, and millions have -- we're creeping up to a million mark right here in the US.  From the beginning the descriptions of this disease scared the stuffing out of me -- and many others of us. Which is a massive driver for doing the right things that may keep us from contracting it, and not doing the wrong things that up our chances of contracting it.

 

https://slate.com/technology/2021/09/hermancainaward-subreddit-antivaxxer-deaths-cataloged.html

Quote

 

....It is cruel, a site for heartless and unrepentant schadenfreude. This is a place where deaths are celebrated, and it is not the only one. While endless ink has been spilled on the anger of Trump voters and Fox News viewers and QAnon adherents, there are other angers that haven’t been nearly as well explored. The exhaustion and fury doctors and nurses feel, for example, as they deal yet again with overwhelmed ICUs. Instead of being hailed as heroes, this time around they’re risking their lives to serve while walking through anti-vax protesters and being called murderers or worse by misled family members demanding or indeed suing for sick unvaccinated relatives on ventilators to be dosed with ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine or vitamin C. There is the anger of family members of those without COVID who are dying or sicker than they should be because treatment was delayed or denied to them at dozens of hospitals that had no beds available. There’s the frustration of parents trying to keep their children safe, the constant, destabilizing calculations and adaptations people are forced into when (for instance) the governor of Texas prohibits schools from taking safety measures and then two teachers at a single school die, forcing closures once again. There’s the run-of-the-mill anger of those weary of living under pandemic conditions and demoralized—in the most literal sense—by the selfishness of their compatriots.

Subscriptions to the HermanCainAward subreddit are increasing exponentially, from 2,000 subscribers on July 4 to 5,000 at the beginning of August to more than 100,000 on Sept. 1 to 243,000 Friday to 276,000 today. If that rate is any indication, rage is growing toward anti-vaxxers deliberately prolonging the pandemic out of an anti-social and deadly understanding of their rights. Now, it’s true that not everyone on the subreddit assents to its spiteful premise: One exhausted nurse wrote a long post about how much one of her anti-vax patients suffered, as an attempt at counterbalance. She acknowledged her own compassion fatigue but also urged readers to think harder about how we got to this sorry pass. Plenty of the discussions do orbit around that basic question. But most of the comments are angry. A collection of screenshots generally elicits a common sentiment: The person got their just deserts....

 

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

49 minutes ago, Zorral said:

https://slate.com/technology/2021/09/hermancainaward-subreddit-antivaxxer-deaths-cataloged.html

From the same article (emphasis mine):

Quote

HermanCainAward, one of the fastest-growing subreddits on Reddit.com, is exactly what it sounds like: an archive of those who have been hospitalized and/or killed by COVID and didn’t believe the disease could harm them. It is named after Republican Herman Cain, the onetime candidate for president who succumbed to COVID some weeks after attending a Trump rallyin Tulsa, Oklahoma, at which he was photographed maskless in the summer of 2020. Cain’s Twitter account would continue to downplay the virus even after his death.

I don't think this is given enough emphasis in the article. The award winners are people who, to some degree, were aggressively anti-mask, anti-vaccine types who propagated this stuff on social media. 

I checked out the subreddit. See the "For those who say the HCA are immoral. Let’s see how we got here" thread.

It's definitely an expression of frustration. Is it productive? Probably not. Are the comment sections a bit salty? Sure. Is it the most heartless thing I've ever seen on the internet? Not even close. Compared to the exemplars from the award winners' social media accounts, it's actually pretty tame. 

I'm not going to dance on their graves, but I find it hard to get excited about this. 

 

[Zorral]

3 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I'm not going to dance on their graves, but I find it hard to get excited about this. 

  It's also important to notice the author isn't excited either, but very interested and attempting to make some sense of all it, while working out how this fits into morality, ethics, community, even families, the very sort of dilemmas and paradoxes and contradictions we are all being driven bonkers by. Which, since ultimately the anti-vaxxers etc. are irrational, if not downright deranged, can't work. Leaving us even more frustrated and despairing -- including, even, can even we who try to follow the right paths, evade getting this dreadful disease.

Because as the author says, even for those dying of it, there is no conversion.  Nor is there after their deaths, as they are characterized by friends and family in the terms of "God gave her angel wings this week;" "God called him home;"  "His time came and now he's with his wife;" etc.  Not a word about, gee whiz if they'd gotten the vaccine and worn a mask four kids wouldn't be without parents and penniless.  They're just "beloved parents of ...."  But that 2 week old baby? Don't think so, since that baby never knew his parents at all.
 

[sologdin]

Is it productive? Probably not. 

totally unproductive.  the effort would be better spent in integrating these lumpenized antisocial types back into the current system of biopolitical management.  something less horripilatory than re-education camps, obviously.  sadly the don't-tread-on-me crowd doesn't take even the most tepid advice well. 

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

https://slate.com/technology/2021/09/hermancainaward-subreddit-antivaxxer-deaths-cataloged.html

If that rate is any indication, rage is growing toward anti-vaxxers deliberately prolonging the pandemic out of an anti-social and deadly understanding of their rights. 

Good. I have a deadline on 1st of October. Past this date, I'm not going to care a bit about the life of people who obviously never cared about anyone else's life, so at long last I'm going to reciprocate. Past this date, every fucking willingly anti-vaxxer can just die. They asked for it, and they brought it upon themselves. The sane part of society deserves to live freely again and the assholes deserve to suffer for their hateful behaviour; if the sane part of society can actually live not only freely but free from anti-vaxx nutcase, it's actually a bonus, as far as I'm concerned.

I bloody hope the vaccinated sensible part of Western population will really act on this soon enough and order concrete actions from the political leaderships. This farce has been going on long enough, time to end it.

 

10 minutes ago, sologdin said:

the effort would be better spent in integrating these lumpenized antisocial types back into the current system of biopolitical management.  

Current Marxists actually think antisocial lumpen can be integrated back into society? Things have changed since the 1860s

[Starkess]

I won't be dancing on anyone's grave, but I have not a shred of sympathy left for those who refuse the vaccine. My sister just sent a message full of guilt because my niece got covid (too young to be vaccinated) and my sister (vaccinated and symptomless) tested positive as well, and she had just visited our parents, who are not vaccinated. While I do not my any means wish harm upon my own parents, and I certainly hope they didn't catch it from her, these are their own poor decisions. If they want to live in this fantasy world then that's on them. My sympathy is reserved for anyone their thoughtless actions harm.

[Zorral]

38 minutes ago, sologdin said:

Is it productive? Probably not. 

totally unproductive.  the effort would be better spent in integrating these lumpenized antisocial types back into the current system of biopolitical management.  something less horripilatory than re-education camps, obviously.  sadly the don't-tread-on-me crowd doesn't take even the most tepid advice well. 

Ya, as you say, not possible.  They've left that state years ago already.  We're talking people who believe satanists are stalking the schools and eating children RIGHT NOW, and whose life mission was to fight them -- until he found the worse conspiracy of covid.

You know, in all these endless dragging years of horrors as I've seen them -- a very few of them let me haste to add -- since 9/11 and the WOMD lies, Katrina "Heck of a job, Brownie," and hurricane after hurricane battering friends throughout the Caribbean, shoggoth and his minions taking over the country -- in some ways that reddit site is the most horrible.  The most depressing.  The most despairing.  Because it is determined derangement that is literally killing people I love and so much else that has made life worth living, despite the horrors.  It's Cthulhu manifest in our time and space. But it's from CHOICE.

I mean, even with the historical evils, such as nazism and the Holocaust, you can see there were people who saw personal advantages of various sorts from propagating this evil, whether or not they truly believed the bs they said -- though whether they didn't, they still committed the acts, let us not forget.

But there is nothing to be gained by these deranged populations in what they are doing to themselves and others.  Though I suppose they, as cannon fodder, are helping those who designed all this for the sake of power.  Power over smoking ruin and ashes.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

@sologdin Your avatar makes me dizzy.

That reminds me of a Stalin joke I heard recently:

Stalin is about to address a cohort of military offers in rank formation when one of them sneezes. "Who did that?", Stalin asks. No one responds. After a period of uncomfortable silence, Stalin orders his guards to machine gun the first rank of officers. Once the firing stops, Stalin repeats his question, forcefully this time, "Who. Did. That?". Still no response. Stalin then orders his guards to machine gun the second rank of officers.

When the firing stops and the smoke clears, Stalin is about to repeat his question a second time when one of the officers raises his hand.

"It was me, Comrade Stalin!" 

Stalin walks up to the terrified Officer; looks him straight in the eye.

"Bless you."      

[Ormond]

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

There are times I despair of humanity because of the actions of those people, and it seems like they are many more of them than 1% of the nasty group. People blocking hospitals in cities across Canada because they are anti-vaccine. Across Canada, ffs! Demonstrators showing up at every event the prime minister had this election, cursing and one (yes, just one) idiot even throwing stones at him, because of Trudeau’s strongly worded messages about getting vaccinated. Hundreds of people lined up at a doctor’s office here because the guy was selling “medical certificates” for $20 a pop stating they didn’t need to get vaccinated.

And this is just on the topic of vaccines. We could start listing a whole group of other things people are obnoxious about. “Good” people included! 

I understand your feelings, but Canada has over 30 million people older than 18. I would think way less than 1% of that would account for the incidents you describe. 1% of 30 million is 300,000, and I would think 30,000 strong antivaxxers would be more than enough to block hospitals, heckle the prime minister, and have hundreds show up at one doctor's office. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

35 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I won't be dancing on anyone's grave, but I have not a shred of sympathy left for those who refuse the vaccine. My sister just sent a message full of guilt because my niece got covid (too young to be vaccinated) and my sister (vaccinated and symptomless) tested positive as well, and she had just visited our parents, who are not vaccinated. While I do not my any means wish harm upon my own parents, and I certainly hope they didn't catch it from her, these are their own poor decisions. If they want to live in this fantasy world then that's on them. My sympathy is reserved for anyone their thoughtless actions harm.

I'm sorry to hear it.

I haven't seen my parents in nearly two years. They both got vaccinated in the spring, but they're elderly and have had health issues. In addition to the multitude of toxic chemicals he's been exposed to, my father was a smoker for most of his life. My mother has a heart condition.

My sister is trying to get us all together for my fathers 80th birthday next year. My parents, four offspring and their spouses, and six grandkids; two of which aren't vaccinated because they're too young. They spend their days in school with a bunch of kids who are also unvaccinated because they're too young. 

I'm not sure it will happen. I'm not sure it should happen.

[RhaenysBee]

Ah man, why won’t it end? When will it end? 

It’s about 99% sure at this point that sister has covid. She’s been unwell for 5 days and got tested today. Few hours later her sense of taste started fading and by now she has no sense of smell either. She has regular flu symptoms and no fever (as of now), but quite understandably, she’s a wreck psychologically. I get it, so was I. She’s vaccinated, healthy and young, so statistically she should be all right in another week. But I’m really worried about her, especially about her mental health. It’s a terribly difficult and frightening thing to have covid and to be isolated. I know I have no way of helping her other than listening and talking and sharing my experience, but it’ll ultimately be time that can convince her that she’s not going to die or have permanent consequences. I’ve been there and I wouldn’t wish those thoughts on anybody, especially not her. 

Life is unfair. I just hope she gets better soon. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Caught part of an interview on the radio with an epidemiologist who is asserting that Delta COVID is possibly the most infectious virus we have ever seen. He pointed out that infectiousness is a combination of the R0 and of the incubation period. Citing measles as a disease with a high R0 he noted that measles has in incubation period of 2 weeks, whereas Delta has an incubation period of 3 days. The R0 he gave for Delta was 8, which is the highest I've heard, previously I'd heard 7 as the number.

Anyway the point is Measles with an R0 of 16 over 2 weeks will mean patient zero will infect 16 people after 2 weeks, and after another 2 weeks 16x16 people will be infected, so 256 people after 1 month(ish) from one original case.

Patient zero with Delta will infect 7/8 people after 3 days. So over the same two week period 7/8⁴ people will be infected. So that's between 2000 and 4000 people infected after just 2 weeks, up to 10 times more people than will be infected with measles after a month. 

We're fortunate that Delta turned up after there was substantial immunity in many countries from infection, and after quite a few countries had got fairly well into their vaccination programmes. If delta had reared its head in 2020 things might be a lot more grim than they already are.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Back down to 15 cases in Auckland today.

[The Anti-Targ]

you-yoing a bit. 

A report modelling vaccinations vs death and hospitalisation in NZ with COVID spreading unchecked:

Quote

New modelling prepared for the Government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed.

The modelling from Te Punaha Matatini suggests that if 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated - around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.

Hendy projects it would cause 60,000 hospitalisations and 7000 deaths over a one-year period.

If 90 per cent of the 5+ population was reached however – around 85 per cent of the full population – then deaths would drop to around 50 over a year.

So I guess for me, 90% of eligible people is my number where I would be happy for NZ to pretty much open up and do away with any form of lockdowns forever (until the next pandemic for which there is no effective treatment or vaccine). Still want proof of vaccination to be allowed in.

[Fragile Bird]

21 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

you-yoing a bit. 

A report modelling vaccinations vs death and hospitalisation in NZ with COVID spreading unchecked:

So I guess for me, 90% of eligible people is my number where I would be happy for NZ to pretty much open up and do away with any form of lockdowns forever (until the next pandemic for which there is no effective treatment or vaccine). Still want proof of vaccination to be allowed in.

So…how strong is the anti-vaccine movement in New Zealand?

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

The HCA subreddit now has 298k members.

Some good news out of Alberta:

In every eligible age cohort, including those pesky 25-29 year olds, 70+% of the population have received at least 1 dose. For those over 45, it's 80+%. The overall rate for 12+ is 81.8%; For the population as a whole it's 69.5%

So, for our population at least, it looks like vaccine passports are the key to getting the hold-outs off their asses to get poked. The $100 bribe didn't do much of anything. Announcing a quasi-lockdown and a state of emergency didn't do much anything. But once they faced the reality that life won't go back to normal without getting vaccinated (eg, they might be refused access to places of business), they overcame their reluctance in droves. Fuckers.

Now the bad news: We've shattered the January record for hospitalizations (810 vs 732). ICU admissions have stabilized but that might be because the overflow is getting exported. the 7-day average for daily deaths is 15. Not the highest we've seen but not far off.

5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Back down to 15 cases in Auckland today.

 

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

you-yoing a bit. 

A report modelling vaccinations vs death and hospitalisation in NZ with COVID spreading unchecked:

So I guess for me, 90% of eligible people is my number where I would be happy for NZ to pretty much open up and do away with any form of lockdowns forever (until the next pandemic for which there is no effective treatment or vaccine). Still want proof of vaccination to be allowed in.

I checked this again today. You guys are absolutely crushing it in terms of vaccinations. 53k jabs yesterday. Your'e making us all look bad. 

I hope for your sakes that you don't stall out like we did. If the Canadian experience is typical, anything below 85% fully-vaccinated for eligible ages is just asking for trouble. And that last 5-10% is critical for lowering infections rates (as your quoted text suggests).  

[The Marquis de Leech]

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

So…how strong is the anti-vaccine movement in New Zealand?

They're there, but they're just as likely to be New Age Hippie types as pseudo-Trumpists, and they keep their whingeing behind closed doors (a very, very New Zealand trait). The real issues with vaccination is actually quite localised - Maori under the age of 50, living in Northland and the Bay of Plenty. Pakeha, Asians, Pacific Islanders, and older Maori (or living in the lower half of the country) are fine.

[The Anti-Targ]

I would say our true believer (or unbeliever) anti-vax population is not that much different to the countries we normally compare ourselves to. If we take measles as a point of reference according to this  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.IMM.MEAS?most_recent_value_desc=true NZ, Aus, US, CA, UK are much of a muchness on MMR vaccination, with Aussie being the winner.

I guess the differences that arise with COVID will be about the next tier of un-vaxxed. Those who are not hardcore anti-vax but who have been sufficiently influenced by the anti-vax and those who are casting doubt for mostly (IMO) nefarious political reasons to make them distrustful of the COVID vaccine specifically, and possibly starting to question a bit more vaccination in general. Not sure the size of that group. It seems like it's a sizeable group in the USA, not a very big group in the UK.

Speaking of which I am getting my second micro-chip / re-magentisation tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how I react this time as the first round was very mild. I was disappointed that I couldn't even get a paperclip to stay put after the first one.