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The Reign of King Renly


OldLordWalder
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37 minutes ago, mormont said:

Except that's not really a fact.

Renly put his claim forward, as others have noted, because he didn't really have any other options as he saw it. He preferred to take control of Joff (and presumably Tommen), a move which in itself was as much about self-preservation as ambition: Renly understood that the Lannisters were going to do the same and that if/when they did, they would have to eliminate both Renly and Stannis.

But then Ned ends that, and what can Renly do then? Assume he doesn't know about the incest, and there's no textual evidence as far as I can recall that he did. Heck, assume he did know about the incest - even in that scenario, unless he knows that Stannis knows, Renly probably doesn't anticipate that Stannis will even declare for the throne. And once Stannis does do that, it's too late.

One might argue that at that point, Renly should chuck his claim and go over to Stannis. But that looks a lot like not just political but actual suicide at that stage. Renly can't count on his allies backing Stannis too: for a start, Stannis is married already, so Marge doesn't get to be Queen in that scenario. The best case is that Mace settles for Loras marrying Shireen instead and there are all sorts of problems with that, not least that it depends on Mace, Stannis, and Loras all agreeing to it. It's not something Renly can just decide. Then, of course, there's no love lost between Mace and Stannis anyway. That makes Mace's end of the deal more difficult: how much influence would he have in a Stannis court as opposed to a Renly court?

Renly is in a situation where he wins or he dies. Gambling on Stannis' cause because he's the elder brother, when the evidence that Stannis is the rightful heir is widely questioned, doesn't seem like a smart move.

Agree on these points, and add that Renly seemingly does not know about the incest. So for him it is not a case of whether Stannis is rightful heir being questionable - to Renly's knowledge Stannis was unquestionably not Robert's heir. Stannis was brooding on Dragonstone and for all Renly know he might have continued to so until the end of time.

 

As I see it, after Renly fled KL he had a few options:

a) Turn right back around and pay homage to King Joffrey (not a great choice, wouldn't have solved his reasons for leaving KL in the first place).

b) Hole himself up in Storms End with his household guard, Stannis-style (not ideal, his seat is not on an island, and a Lannister army would come knocking eventually).

c) Cross the Narrow Sea into exile (he wouldn't want the life of  ignominy and poverty, and besides this is option is often chosen after losing a war, rather than running before even trying to fight).

d) Call his bannermen, friends and allies to fight to protect him (the option Renly chose).

 

Fighting the Lannisters didn't require Renly to crown himself - he could have continued with his original plan he suggested to Ned of overthrowing Cersei as Joffs regent. And I suggest that when Renly first called the banners that was still his plan. He didn't go to war to make himself king, but to protect himself from the Lannisters. He made the decision to crown himself when he looked at the size of the army he had already gathered and thought that if so many men already obeyed his command that made him worthy to be king.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mormont said:

Renly put his claim forward, as others have noted, because he didn't really have any other options as he saw it. He preferred to take control of Joff (and presumably Tommen), a move which in itself was as much about self-preservation as ambition: Renly understood that the Lannisters were going to do the same and that if/when they did, they would have to eliminate both Renly and Stannis.

They would not 'have to' eliminate Renly and Stannis. Joffrey was Robert's eldest son and his anointed heir. There could be struggle over the regency government of the young king - what roles the royal uncles would play or not play, etc. ... but the idea that Renly and Stannis had to be eliminated is a stretch.

Renly flees court because he realized that he would not be able to control Joff's person and thus the regency government ... but that's a struggle for the regency, not an all-out war of annihilation. Even Cersei doesn't want to destroy Ned or the Starks after her coup is successful.

4 minutes ago, mormont said:

But then Ned ends that, and what can Renly do then? Assume he doesn't know about the incest, and there's no textual evidence as far as I can recall that he did. Heck, assume he did know about the incest - even in that scenario, unless he knows that Stannis knows, Renly probably doesn't anticipate that Stannis will even declare for the throne. And once Stannis does do that, it's too late.

Renly definitely doesn't know about the incest. That is confirmed. Even if it wasn't, if he had known, he would have told Robert and, assuming he would have only learned the truth after Robert's death or while he could no longer talk to him then he would have told other people immediately, and he would have made this fact a big part of his justification for his coronation. If Robert had no legitimate children, then the only person with a better legal claim than Renly would be Stannis ... and Stannis can be pushed aside much easier than Robert's own children.

Renly would have never expected that Stannis would stick with Robert's children because even the Lannisters assumed that both Renly and Stannis had to be dealt with after Robert's death. Tywin expected Robert's brothers to make problems independent of the twincest. Renly could have expected Stannis to remain neutral in a succession dispute, but not that he would make common cause with the Lannisters against him. In fact, Renly himself tells Cat that he expects Stannis to side with him against the Lannisters.

4 minutes ago, mormont said:

One might argue that at that point, Renly should chuck his claim and go over to Stannis. But that looks a lot like not just political but actual suicide at that stage. Renly can't count on his allies backing Stannis too: for a start, Stannis is married already, so Marge doesn't get to be Queen in that scenario. The best case is that Mace settles for Loras marrying Shireen instead and there are all sorts of problems with that, not least that it depends on Mace, Stannis, and Loras all agreeing to it. It's not something Renly can just decide. Then, of course, there's no love lost between Mace and Stannis anyway. That makes Mace's end of the deal more difficult: how much influence would he have in a Stannis court as opposed to a Renly court?

That is all problematic. It is pretty clear that Renly controls the Tyrells via Loras, not the other way around. Renly is the guy behind the plot to replace Cersei with Margaery as queen. That was Renly's idea and apparently not something Mace was obsessed with all that much at that time or else Renly would not need to have Loras write letters to Highgarden urging his father to send Margaery to court. Mace was so disinterested in court affairs at that time that he didn't even show up for the Tourney of the Hand - despite the fact that Loras was participating.

The idea that Renly could not also convince the Tyrells and the Reach and the Stormlords to declare for Stannis if he wanted to do that is without textual evidence. We do have textual evidence that Stannis loathes Mace and Paxter for the siege of Storm's End ... but not that Mace/Paxter hate Stannis.

Even if the Reach were completely against the Stannis idea - Renly could have brought the Stormlords to Stannis, increasing his strength to no small degree. In the wake of the incident at the Tourney of the Hand the Tyrells would not be eager to support the Lannisters in a succession struggle.

The issue of a royal marriage between Stannis and the Tyrells could also be resolved. Stannis could set aside Selyse (who he loathed and who failed to give him a son) in favor of Margaery. Stannis could also betroth or marry Shireen to Willas (or Loras) Tyrell. Stannis could also declare Renly his Heir Apparent and marry him to Margaery. Eventually this would also make Margaery a queen or at least the mother of a king.

4 minutes ago, mormont said:

Renly is in a situation where he wins or he dies. Gambling on Stannis' cause because he's the elder brother, when the evidence that Stannis is the rightful heir is widely questioned, doesn't seem like a smart move.

It would have been equally smart. The difference would have been that Renly wouldn't be king in that scenario ... and the reason he crowned himself is that he wanted to be king. We unfortunately have no idea how that decision was made - whether Renly was pushed into that direction by his buddies or whether it was a solitary decision.

I think the situation is open enough that you can wonder/speculate whether Renly was already thinking to become king when he was making his offer to Ned - like Richard III may not have wanted to be king immediately after his brother's death Renly could have decided that, once Cersei and the children were in his power, he would disinherit/push them aside somehow to crown himself instead.

In any case - when Renly fled court he wasn't in mortal danger. He was the old king's brother, the new king's uncle, a great lord of the Realm with a strong castle, the allegiance and love of his bannermen, and friends throughout the entire Realm.

If he had stayed neutral during the coming struggles every party would have courted him for his support, the Lannisters included - at least once Tyrion and Tywin started to call the shots. Tyrion sold his niece to Doran Martell who we know hated Lord Tywin ... so they would have also worked with Renly if Renly had given any signs that he wouldn't challenge Joffrey's ascension. Even more so when the war with the Starks and Tullys really got hot ... because if the Lannisters made no deal with Renly, Renly might end up making a deal with the Starks.

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19 minutes ago, mormont said:

Renly put his claim forward, as others have noted, because he didn't really have any other options as he saw it

Renly put forward his claim to beat Stannis to it. He's not a slave to the IT but as Stannis notes he desperately wanted it. Besides we know what Tyrion has to say about options.

21 minutes ago, mormont said:

He preferred to take control of Joff (and presumably Tommen), a move which in itself was as much about self-preservation as ambition: Renly understood that the Lannisters were going to do the same and that if/when they did, they would have to eliminate both Renly and Stannis.

That's just paranoid Stannis talking and it turns out Lannister did not kill Jon Arryn. In fact Lannister did it's best to preserve the life of Eddard Stark. 

Renlys being hyperbolic or just plainly mistaken.

Tommen, the girl too. It was an evil plan that was sure to lead to civil war, Renlys apparent end game.

25 minutes ago, mormont said:

But then Ned ends that, and what can Renly do then? Assume he doesn't know about the incest, and there's no textual evidence as far as I can recall that he did. Heck, assume he did know about the incest - even in that scenario, unless he knows that Stannis knows, Renly probably doesn't anticipate that Stannis will even declare for the throne. And once Stannis does do that, it's too late

He doesn't know about the incest, or I should say he doesn't know Stannis knows about it.

Bullshit. Dragonstone has served one purpose since the first dinosaur fish crawled out of the sea, conquest. Stannis has abruptly left KL to amass an army of sellswords pirates and mystics from the east only a blind man or an idiot like Ned wouldn't foresee Stannis' crowning.

Renlys crowning was a calculated move to steal Stannis' thunder. (Not just the thunder but the whole Storm...lands)

32 minutes ago, mormont said:

One might argue that at that point, Renly should chuck his claim and go over to Stannis. But that looks a lot like not just political but actual suicide at that stage. Renly can't count on his allies backing Stannis too: for a start, Stannis is married already, so Marge doesn't get to be Queen in that scenario. The best case is that Mace settles for Loras marrying Shireen instead and there are all sorts of problems with that, not least that it depends on Mace, Stannis, and Loras all agreeing to it. It's not something Renly can just decide. Then, of course, there's no love lost between Mace and Stannis anyway. That makes Mace's end of the deal more difficult: how much influence would he have in a Stannis court as opposed to a Renly court?

You have ceased arguing on behalf of Renlys merit and now are questioning whether the puppet master wants to join the theater. 

This is all points firmly against Renly. Roberts throne was stolen by his in laws and Renly is all too eager to repeat every move Robert did. This is more troublesome because unlike a shrewd Lannister stealing the throne, itll be Mace.

36 minutes ago, mormont said:

Renly is in a situation where he wins or he dies

By design and after machivillian like plotting

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Renly was a knight of summer sort of person.  He could rule during a time of plenty and prosperity but he himself will not be able to build upon what he inherited.  Robert left the kingdom in poor economic state.  I doubt if Renly was up to the task of rebuilding.  

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14 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renly put forward his claim to beat Stannis to it. He's not a slave to the IT but as Stannis notes he desperately wanted it. Besides we know what Tyrion has to say about options.

Stannis's takes on Renly are like Noye's takes on the Baratheon brothers. Colorful but nothing else.

Robert wasn't desperately to get the throne, in fact the only Baratheon brother obsessed with the Throne is Stannis. Is 101 deflection tactic to push one's flaws into others.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That's not how he presented it to Stannis, though. Quite the contrary.

Why would he be honest to Stannis? By that point it doesn't matter anyway, he's already crowned himself, he can only convince Stannis to lay down the weapons or defeat him.

Besides the obvious fact that Renly did come to think the Throne suited him.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

That's just paranoid Stannis talking and it turns out Lannister did not kill Jon Arryn. In fact Lannister did it's best to preserve the life of Eddard Stark. 

The Lannisters, especially Cersei but Joffrey and Tywin too, made it pretty clear the Baratheon brothers had to go. They were adults and commanded big armies/navies, they were a threat.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis has abruptly left KL to amass an army of sellswords pirates and mystics from the east only a blind man or an idiot like Ned wouldn't foresee Stannis' crowning.

Only Varys and Arya knew that Stannis was gathering an army, no one else in King's Landing knew about that. Robert would have asked Stannis the hell he was doing with an army for starters.

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renlys crowning was a calculated move to steal Stannis' thunder. (Not just the thunder but the whole Storm...lands)

The Stormlands were Renly's anyways. He's being its Lord Paramount for 13 years and he was adored there, Stannis would only get the Stormlands if he complied to Renly's demands anyways. I do not think that Stannis factored in Renly's plans. In his mind Stannis bid to the throne was negated by Stannis himself and if he doesn't know about the incest, Stannis default opinion would be support Robert's children not usurp his line

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23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty clear that Renly controls the Tyrells via Loras, not the other way around.

I don't think there was much controlling needed, since the Tyrells are quite ambitious themselves, especially Olenna and Mace. Plus, again, after Robert's death, Renly needed them much more than they needed him. 

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50 minutes ago, frenin said:

Stannis's takes on Renly are like Noye's takes on the Baratheon brothers. Colorful but nothing else.

That man slayed a giant

51 minutes ago, frenin said:

Robert wasn't desperately to get the throne, in fact the only Baratheon brother obsessed with the Throne is Stannis. Is 101 deflection tactic to push one's flaws into others.

All three of them were/are desperately obsessed with the throne. It's obvious by looking at their comments, actions and the general story of asoiaf.

54 minutes ago, frenin said:

Besides the obvious fact that Renly did come to think the Throne suited him.

Lol, uh, are you saying he desperately wanted it?

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Why would he be honest to Stannis?

Because it's just the two of them (5) and they both know one will be dead tomorrow, so why lie?

1 hour ago, frenin said:

The Lannisters, especially Cersei but Joffrey and Tywin too, made it pretty clear the Baratheon brothers had to go. They were adults and commanded big armies/navies, they were a threat.

As Tyrion noted, killing a lord brings war. Tywin and Cersei knew this as well.

Joff liked his uncles well enough (not Tyrion) until Ned called Stannis a king and Renly called himself one

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Only Varys and Arya knew that Stannis was gathering an army, no one else in King's Landing knew about that. Robert would have asked Stannis the hell he was doing with an army for starters.

Ned didn't know, and we should assume Robert didn't know. But Varys isn't the only one with spies in or out of KL

1 hour ago, frenin said:

The Stormlands were Renly's anyways. He's being its Lord Paramount for 13 years and he was adored there, Stannis would only get the Stormlands if he complied to Renly's demands anyways.

The entire seven kingdoms consists of bloodthirsty warmongering barbarians who crave for the first chance to shed their ridiculously shaped swords on behalf of the honor of a goofy picture of their landlord's ancestor's favorite animal. 

Renly just beat him to the punch.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

I do not think that Stannis factored in Renly's plans. In his mind Stannis bid to the throne was negated by Stannis himself and if he doesn't know about the incest, Stannis default opinion would be support Robert's children not usurp his line

If anyone can claim to know Stannis its Renly. Which is why when asked if Stannis would capitulate Renly reminded them on how Stannis had them eating rats in the face of surrender. (Even if that wasn't a real story). Yet here your trying to convince me that Renly thought Stannis was fearfully hiding, as if he was Robert during battle of Bells

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2 hours ago, Allardyce said:

Renly was a knight of summer sort of person.  He could rule during a time of plenty and prosperity but he himself will not be able to build upon what he inherited.  Robert left the kingdom in poor economic state.  I doubt if Renly was up to the task of rebuilding.  

You know that the ‘knight of summer’ thing is an example of inverted prejudice that was proven dramatically wrong, right? Cat thinks that about the army that later shows up and kicks Stannis’ ass. When push came to shove they were hard men with martial skill, especially Garlan who is superficially all the things Cat thought ‘knights of summer’ were. 
 

Cat had adopted a northern prejudice about things like tourneys which was not only proven wrong, but we know is dead wrong from real life. Tournaments had flourishes around them, but the sport at the heart of them was deadly serious and unequivocally war’s junior brother. More kings of England and France died in jousts than in battle. People were excommunicated for participating in tournaments because it was considered insanely dangerous without any moral cause. Military leaders and kings, for example Edward III, specifically used tournaments to recruit the best fighters to lead his chevauches (raids/invasions) into France. The knights of the Reach and Vale are considered the peak of chivalry, but chivalry was not about etiquette and fashion, it was about the medieval equivalent of tanks and the deadly usage of same. 
 

Martin cleverly presents anti-northern prejudices in such a way that readers swallow anti-southern prejudices wholesale without even knowing it. This is by extension applied to Renly despite the fact that the show managed to make most readers forget that Renly loved jousting and hunting, which again were essentially war rehearsals. 
 

Similarly a lot of people seem to treat Renly’s political abilities and charisma as frivolous distractions from the real job of ruling a la Stannis which completely misses the point that feudal politics/power was all about personal relationships and persuasion. Stannis being a dick all the time and generally hated isn’t a kind of superficial aside, it’s a crippling failure of the job description. There are no elections or campaign seasons that you have to get past and then start the real job, it’s a constant need to be able to persuade and maintain relationships. That’s basically the most important part of being a medieval ruler. You can get by without having a great understanding of finance or warfare or w/e, you can have people shoulder those responsibilities for you, but no one else can keep people loyal to you when the demands are great and other options are available. You can’t pay off everyone because it’s zero sum in most cases. Feudal leaders maintain their position in hard times by keeping more people faithful to them then their enemies do. 

Edited by James Arryn
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2 hours ago, Allardyce said:

Renly was a knight of summer sort of person.  He could rule during a time of plenty and prosperity but he himself will not be able to build upon what he inherited.  Robert left the kingdom in poor economic state.  I doubt if Renly was up to the task of rebuilding.  

Besides, Renly loved feasts and tourneys even more than Robert did, and Robert nearly bankrupted the realm with them. Who is to say that this wouldn't get worse under Renly?

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58 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

You know that the ‘knight of summer’ thing is an example of inverted prejudice that was proven dramatically wrong, right? Cat thinks that about the army that later shows up and kicks Stannis’ ass.

Stannis was already getting his ass kicked when Tywin and Tyrell took him in the rear.

58 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Cat had adopted a northern prejudice about things like tourneys which was not only proven wrong

Everybody got best up by a girl and they were all bummed out about it. It probably didn't help that Randyll just told them "no raping that girl"

58 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

that Renly loved jousting and hunting, which again were essentially war rehearsals

He's basically Edric Storm, except Varys never got him a hammer for Christmas. Renly wanted to be young Robert, young Robert was a pro at these things, well not the hunting one.

58 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Similarly a lot of people seem to treat Renly’s political abilities and charisma as frivolous distractions from the real job of ruling a la Stannis which completely misses the point that feudal politics/power was all about personal relationships and persuasion. Stannis being a dick all the time and generally hated isn’t a kind of superficial aside, it’s a crippling failure of the job description. There are no elections or campaign seasons that you have to get past and then start the real job, it’s a constant need to be able to persuade and maintain relationships. That’s basically the most important part of being a medieval ruler. You can get by without having a great understanding of finance or warfare or w/e, you can have people shoulder those responsibilities for you, but no one else can keep people loyal to you when the demands are great and other options are available. You can’t pay off everyone because it’s zero sum in most cases. Feudal leaders maintain their position in hard times by keeping more people faithful to them then their enemies do. 

Exactly. A fundamental problem with Westeros. Robert didn't inherit a feadual kingdom, he inherited a Targaryen kingdom.

The dragon feasts on sheep and horse alike. Stannis thought of compromising with Lysa, Robb, Renly. But that's not what Aegon did. That's not what the Greens did and it's not what Robert did at Pyke.

Fire and blood baby. Thats what built that throne, that's what it takes to hold it. Unless you compromise everything to one house but then Marge and Loras will be going at it everytime bluebards in the room, because that's what queens and their brothers do in KL apparently, and before you know it that mighty stag sigil its now a flower with the confused looking deer in the background

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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think there was much controlling needed, since the Tyrells are quite ambitious themselves, especially Olenna and Mace. Plus, again, after Robert's death, Renly needed them much more than they needed him. 

Again, Renly (and Loras) were the ones who wanted to make Margaery Robert's queen. Mace supported Loras in the Reny adventure and liked the idea that Margaery would remain the queen once the Lannister offer arrived ... but he didn't push for a royal marriage for Margaery earlier. Else he would have tried to betroth Margaery to Joffrey long before Renly and Loras even came up with the weirdo idea to use Margaery to get rid of Cersei.

And Olenna even admits she opposed the 'King Renly' idea. She is not ambitious in this regard.

That said - I'm pretty sure Mace demanded a price for his support for 'King Renly' - the Handship, possibly even the Margaery match - which was kind of unnecessary politically since Renly was already effectively married to Loras. But as I said - we don't know anything about the decision-making process leading to Renly's coronation. We don't know if the Tyrells were pushing him or whether Renly himself convinced them to support his claim. Nor do we know how much sway Renly already had over many Reach lords and knights - keep in mind that he was very popular with many of them (the only named Tyrells with him in ACoK are Margaery and Loras), meaning that the Tyrells may not have had *that much* choice in the entire matter.

57 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Similarly a lot of people seem to treat Renly’s political abilities and charisma as frivolous distractions from the real job of ruling a la Stannis which completely misses the point that feudal politics/power was all about personal relationships and persuasion. Stannis being a dick all the time and generally hated isn’t a kind of superficial aside, it’s a crippling failure of the job description. There are no elections or campaign seasons that you have to get past and then start the real job, it’s a constant need to be able to persuade and maintain relationships. That’s basically the most important part of being a medieval ruler. You can get by without having a great understanding of finance or warfare or w/e, you can have people shoulder those responsibilities for you, but no one else can keep people loyal to you when the demands are great and other options are available. You can’t pay off everyone because it’s zero sum in most cases. Feudal leaders maintain their position in hard times by keeping more people faithful to them then their enemies do. 

Stannis is a complete failure as a king in a feudal setting. You don't really see how bad he is at his job since most POVs covering him either like him or are not in close contact with him ... but Theon 1 gives us the first really intimate picture of Stannis. We see him covered from the POV of a guy who is with Stannis all the time and is present through all his interactions with followers who are not his old maester his pet knight or the bastard he has grown to like ... and he constantly acts like a dickhead. He insults or belittles his loyal followers, never praises them, and refuses them the rewards they crave, never mind that they have proven their loyalty again and again.

That shows how unsuited he is for the job he craves. A lord without charisma is already a bad thing, but a king cannot properly function without charisma and magnanimity.

But Stannis basically showed everybody that he hates/doesn't care about his people when he refused to compromise with the lords and instead decided that black magic and the forceful introduction of a foreign religion were the way to win the Iron Throne.

This doesn't mean that Stannis couldn't make a just ruling in some cases, but in general he is the kind of king who would invite his lords and the people to rebel ... and in the end he would likely be deposed since it is very unlikely he would ever inspire much love. It is already a miracle that Davos loves him.

If he would drop the R'hllor nonsense he could become a great king for the Northmen - his stern way and harsh judgments should agree with them more than the other people - but even that's only possible after he actually came north and lived among them.

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9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renly put forward his claim to beat Stannis to it.

This can only be true if Renly knew or could reasonably have anticipated that Stannis would make a claim. As we've discussed, there is no in-text support for that idea.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

That's just paranoid Stannis talking and it turns out Lannister did not kill Jon Arryn.

I thought this was a weird non-sequitur for a minute. :lol: No, when I said that, Jon Arryn's death wasn't even in my mind. Rather, I was basing this on Renly's own assessment of the situation when he goes to Ned, and what he says later. And those assessments aren't coloured by suspicions of Lannister involvement in Jon's death, at least as far as we know.

Rather, it's about the fact that the Lannisters don't and can't allow either Baratheon brother to be part of the new regime. They can't buy Stannis' loyalty, and they can't trust Renly. But they're too powerful to be left alone. So they have to go. That's just a political reality.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renlys being hyperbolic or just plainly mistaken.

I mean, I don't think so, but if either of these is true, that reinforces my point rather than countering it. We're talking about what Renly believes, not whether he's right to believe it.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tommen, the girl too. It was an evil plan that was sure to lead to civil war, Renlys apparent end game.

Civil war was inevitable at that point. I've seen nothing to suggest that Renly was intent on fomenting one. If that's your read of his actions, OK, but that's really headcanon more than anything else and arguing with someone else's headcanon isn't really a thing I see the point of.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Bullshit. Dragonstone has served one purpose since the first dinosaur fish crawled out of the sea, conquest. Stannis has abruptly left KL to amass an army of sellswords pirates and mystics from the east only a blind man or an idiot like Ned wouldn't foresee Stannis' crowning.

And yet it seems to have taken quite a lot of people - other players in the book, and many readers - somewhat by surprise. Maybe there's a touch of hindsight being applied here, blaming Renly for not reading a few chapters ahead?

I'm not saying that Renly would have considered it absolutely impossible that Stannis might make a claim, by the way. I'm saying that it was not a move he could reasonably have been expected to bet his life on.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

This is all points firmly against Renly. Roberts throne was stolen by his in laws and Renly is all too eager to repeat every move Robert did. This is more troublesome because unlike a shrewd Lannister stealing the throne, itll be Mace.

Mace won't be stealing the throne. But yes, he'll have a powerful position and influence at court. This is called 'having allies'. It's a fairly important bit of ruling.

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10 minutes ago, mormont said:

This can only be true if Renly knew or could reasonably have anticipated that Stannis would make a claim. As we've discussed, there is no in-text support for that idea.

Indeed. And besides that, this idea that Renly tried to "beat" Stannis to his claim also seems wrong, as I've noted before:

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He [Stannis] does not inform the realm he is contesting for the throne, and the basis for it, until the ravens are sent in ACoK. According to one of the best fan-made timelines trying to piece it all together, the time between Robert's death and Stannis's proclamation is ~5 months, while the time between Robert's death and Renly being crowned in Highgarden is ~3 months. 

Stannis certainly had some reason to keep quiet, but taking that long to even let people know he was contesting for the Iron Throne was a mistake. It's hard to blame Renly for moving in this regard.

Stannis could easily have proclaimed his intentions when news spread of Robert's death. He didn't. He apparently waited to see who would show up at his doorstep proclaiming for him on their own. It was a mistake.

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11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

That man slayed a giant

Which tells us nothing about his knowledge about people he hadn't seen in nearly 2 decades.

Ditto with Stannis.

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

All three of them were/are desperately obsessed with the throne. It's obvious by looking at their comments, actions and the general story of asoiaf.

Robert was sick of the Throne and blamed Ned and Arryn for forcing it upon him, Renly's first instinct wasn't to crown himself but to hand the regency to Ned. Stannis not only did he steal the fleet away and gathered an army but killed his brother, almost killed his nephew and will kill his daughter for it. Indeed actions do speak louder than words.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lol, uh, are you saying he desperately wanted it?

Believing something suits you better than it suits the rest doesn't mean you desperately want it.

If Renly wanted the Throne that bad from the get go, he'd have asked Ned his support for his bid for the Throne like show Renly did.

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Because it's just the two of them (5) and they both know one will be dead tomorrow, so why lie?

They are both trying to save face and show strength  in front of a neutral party they intend to either ally or destroy in the near future.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

As Tyrion noted, killing a lord brings war. Tywin and Cersei knew this as well.

And yet they were going to do it anyway... Maybe they thought the benefits outweighed the costs. Maybe they thought impossible for the brothers to bend the knee. Whatever it is, the Baratheon brothers didn't factor in their future plans of ruling.

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Joff liked his uncles well enough (not Tyrion) until Ned called Stannis a king and Renly called himself one

Did he? He has no positive mention of either and he's saving them an spot alongside Ned's head way before either of them made their claims to the Throne public.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ned didn't know, and we should assume Robert didn't know. But Varys isn't the only one with spies in or out of KL

I'd assume that having spies in Dragonstone would rather complicated given Stannis closed the island from any contact. Besides where are those spies of Renly?

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

The entire seven kingdoms consists of bloodthirsty warmongering barbarians who crave for the first chance to shed their ridiculously shaped swords on behalf of the honor of a goofy picture of their landlord's ancestor's favorite animal. 

Renly just beat him to the punch.

Except that's stated ad nauseam that the Stormlords adored Renly and they had no love towards Stannis. The idea that they betrayed Renly for Stannis isn't founded in the books.

Many Vale Lords wanted to join the Starks but they stayed put because Lysa said so, during the Robellion the Westerlands and the Iron Islands stayed put. So...

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

If anyone can claim to know Stannis its Renly. Which is why when asked if Stannis would capitulate Renly reminded them on how Stannis had them eating rats in the face of surrender. (Even if that wasn't a real story). Yet here your trying to convince me that Renly thought Stannis was fearfully hiding, as if he was Robert during battle of Bells

I mean Stannis was in fact hiding.  Besides I didn't say that Stannis would hide, I said Renly would simply Stannis would realize the support Renly had and he lacked and he would accept things. It's the same thought he does present to Stannis.

 

 

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Fire and blood baby.

Aegon compromised tho, he essentially allowed the Great Lords act as kings in all but name and he learnt how to quit. Knowing when to compromise isn't mutually exclusive with learning when to be stern. Else Jaeharys would have doomed his line trying to attack Braavos.

 

@Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

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Besides, Renly loved feasts and tourneys even more than Robert did, and Robert nearly bankrupted the realm with them. Who is to say that this wouldn't get worse under Renly?

It's not about celebrating lot of tourneys and feasts tho, Viserys 1 did that and still the treasure was flowing with gold. It's about controlling the spending.

 

 

 

Edited by frenin
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1 hour ago, SeanF said:

My impression of Renly was all flash and no substance.

I think that's the impression a lot of people have, but his correct perception of the situation as Robert lay dying suggests he had a brain. Not a Tyrion-Varys-Littlefinger-Tywin-level brain, but he seemed to have more political sense than, say, Robb.

 

33 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Do we know this for sure? It might as well be that the Tyrells asked Renly to suggest it to Robert, since he is Robert's brother.

There's no evidence at all that the idea came "from the Tyrells". In fact, Varys notes that Loras and Renly were sending Mace letters trying to persuade him. The TV show seems to have been the thing that turned it all into Renly being manipulated by the Tyrells, but that's a deviation from the books.

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

This can only be true if Renly knew or could reasonably have anticipated that Stannis would make a claim. As we've discussed, there is no in-text support for that idea.

And yet it seems to have taken quite a lot of people - other players in the book, and many readers - somewhat by surprise. Maybe there's a touch of hindsight being applied here, blaming Renly for not reading a few chapters ahead?

I'm not saying that Renly would have considered it absolutely impossible that Stannis might make a claim, by the way. I'm saying that it was not a move he could reasonably have been expected to bet his life on.

I think there's plenty of in text info, which makes Renlys coronation a calculated move and not just a random death sentence which is how I used to think of it.

(You are saying that Renlys coronation was to avoid a death sentence? There is no in-text support for this either. Kinda like how Robert was coronated to save his own life from Aerys, it's not in the books. There are other ways to rebel then coronation, the Baratheons desperately wanted the throne)

Stannis is famous, and most of his actions are expected once we get to know him, specifically he doesn't back down.

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"Maester Cressen told Stannis that we might be forced to eat our dead, and there was no gain in flinging away good meat." Renly pushed back his hair. Brienne bound it with a velvet tie and pulled a padded cap down over his ears, to cushion the weight of his helm. "Thanks to the Onion Knight we were never reduced to dining on corpses, but it was a close thing. Too close for Ser Gawen, who died in his cell."

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"Did you turn into an utter fool when Tyrion shaved your beard? This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some. If he is gone, it can only mean he intends to resume the war.

In fact Renly implies to Stannis that he's a king specifically because Stannis is, well, Stannis

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"The whole of the realm denies it, brother," said Renly. "Old men deny it with their death rattle, and unborn children deny it in their mothers' wombs. They deny it in Dorne and they deny it on the Wall. No one wants you for their king. Sorry."

 

4 hours ago, mormont said:

I thought this was a weird non-sequitur for a minute. :lol: No, when I said that, Jon Arryn's death wasn't even in my mind. Rather, I was basing this on Renly's own assessment of the situation when he goes to Ned, and what he says later. And those assessments aren't coloured by suspicions of Lannister involvement in Jon's death, at least as far as we know.

Rather, it's about the fact that the Lannisters don't and can't allow either Baratheon brother to be part of the new regime. They can't buy Stannis' loyalty, and they can't trust Renly. But they're too powerful to be left alone. So they have to go. That's just a political reality.

The brothers are great lords in their own right, they'll always be powerful agot players, just not in the SC, their future was bright.

Stark is the real enemy, not Baratheon. And Stark is really Tully (and should be Arryn) too. Then the ones who hate Lannister the most is Martell. Oh and Targaryen, and uh GC. 

The political reality is if you murder a lord like Ned, his kingdom will go ape. This is why Tyrion and Tywin we're so upset by Ned's execution.

4 hours ago, mormont said:

I mean, I don't think so, but if either of these is true, that reinforces my point rather than countering it. We're talking about what Renly believes, not whether he's right to believe it.

Renlys just being dramatic, if he is mistaken then so am I, but since Renly knows his brother and this line of story makes most sense to me I'll chalk it up to hyperbolic

4 hours ago, mormont said:

Civil war was inevitable at that point. I've seen nothing to suggest that Renly was intent on fomenting one. If that's your read of his actions, OK, but that's really headcanon more than anything else and arguing with someone else's headcanon isn't really a thing I see the point of.

He tried three times. Replace Cersei, Arrest Cersei, and finally just war, on not Cersei for some reason. Supposedly it was on the to do list

4 hours ago, mormont said:

Mace won't be stealing the throne. But yes, he'll have a powerful position and influence at court. This is called 'having allies'. It's a fairly important bit of ruling.

Kings don't have allies, only subjects and enemies. (Except for LC Jon)

Lannister was Roberts ally. The Greens were allied with Targaryen. The Blackfyres supposedly rose in rebellion to stop Martell from stealing the throne. 

This are fairly important red flags for ruling Westeros

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

If Renly wanted the Throne that bad from the get go, he'd have asked Ned his support for his bid for the Throne like show Renly did.

That's ridiculous. Renly knows Stannis, but he knows Ned too. 

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That is what we shall win if we join with King Renly. What does Lord Stannis have against that, that we should cast it all aside?"

"The right," said Robb stubbornly.

Catelyn thought he sounded eerily like his father as he said it.

If Renly didn't want the throne he'd do what Ned asked and not run away to the arms of his flower.

As the master of laws, ordering the GC to arrest the usurpers is well within his jurisdiction instead of Ned's plan of getting LF to bribe the police.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

They are both trying to save face and show strength  in front of a neutral party they intend to either ally or destroy in the near future.

Neither want to ally with Stark and both act like Stark is nothing to fear

1 hour ago, frenin said:

And yet they were going to do it anyway... Maybe they thought the benefits outweighed the costs. Maybe they thought impossible for the brothers to bend the knee. Whatever it is, the Baratheon brothers didn't factor in their future plans of ruling.

And neither did Stark? Tully, Arryn, Greyjoy and Martell? So it's just them and Tyrell, which nobody even thought of until Varys told Tyrion they're all just chilling a few miles away with their guns cocked.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Did he? He has no positive mention of either and he's saving them an spot alongside Ned's head way before either of them made their claims to the Throne public.

No negative mention either. Ned told Joff that Stannis is an enemy and Renly ran away then

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I'd assume that having spies in Dragonstone would rather complicated given Stannis closed the island from any contact. Besides where are those spies of Renly?

Spying.

Robert was dead Stannis been stole the fleet. Its beyond obvious at this point that Renlys stealing his thunder

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Except that's stated ad nauseam that the Stormlords adored Renly and they had no love towards Stannis. The idea that they betrayed Renly for Stannis isn't founded in the books.

Many Vale Lords wanted to join the Starks but they stayed put because Lysa said so, during the Robellion the Westerlands and the Iron Islands stayed put. So...

Because nobody visited them. Renly did, Stannis wanted to. Stannis eventually meets Buckets and Sansa will soon meet the Vale.

As soon as Renly died, with Stannis waving them in, they formed a straight line

2 hours ago, frenin said:

I mean Stannis was in fact hiding.  Besides I didn't say that Stannis would hide, I said Renly would simply Stannis would realize the support Renly had and he lacked and he would accept things. It's the same thought he does present to Stannis.

Stannis was mustering. He would have mustered more if Renly didn't crown himself

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