Ukraine 12: When is this an existential threat?

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I still don't see how getting directly involved in another land war in Asia is in the US's best interest.  (OK, technically not Asia yet I suppose, but escalation can get us there.)

As you say, Ukraine is not a NATO member. However, Ukraine losing this war completely would bring Russian forces right up to the borders of multiple NATO members and well within striking range of US military bases throughout mainland Europe. A Russian victory could also embolden Russia to strike directly at NATO members if it believes the US will not intervene, completely undercutting the point of the alliance. In extremis, it might (very long-term here) result in Russian forces overrunning half of Europe and leaving the USA isolated from its traditional allies, and threatening a nuclear war at a later stage anyway on conditions less favourable to the United States.

The US and NATO are not going to officially intervene in the war on the ground unless certain red lines are crossed, such as Russia attacking NATO whilst it is still engaged in Ukraine, which would make the argument for NATO to respond on the soil of a third country rather than Russia directly as a way of maintaining control of the escalation, which is arguable.

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The best way for the US to oppose Putin in the long run is to expand domestic energy production.  More fracking, more fission, more pipelines. Even more solar and wind, where they are cost effective. Russia is currently being run on a gangster/resource extraction model.  Crashing prices would hurt the oligarchs more effectively, and far more safely.  Alas, the current administration seems all about their own interests, the people in general and the rank and file soldiers specifically are just a bunch of deplorable rubes who can be sacrificed, if it's good for the military industrial complex.  And so the corporate owned media continues the drum beat to war.

 

This plan is both viable and has been ongoing for a decade, with the US massively expanding its domestic production to almost remove any need for imports at all from Russia and massively driving down its dependence on iffy allies in the Middle East. This has been hugely successful. However, exporting that energy to Europe to wean Europe off Russian energy is more problematic (Germany is having to build two oil terminals from scratch to handle American imports, which obviously can't be done overnight, and there are limits on US excess capacity it can send to allies) and that's where Russia is getting a sizeable chunk of income from.

[Werthead]

General Atomics has agreed in principle a deal to sell Predator and Reaper drones to Ukraine. They want government approval to do that though. It's an interesting idea, and if you've already done Switchblades and Bayraktars (which are more modern and advanced) the argument is why not? Though I believe Reapers at least have a significantly larger payload than either of the more modern drones.

Reports of some Ukrainian units surrendering in Mariupol but others not. It sounds like the Azovs are simply going to fight to the last soldier because they expected to be either killed on sight or executed after capture.

[a free shadow]

9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Crashing prices would hurt the oligarchs more effectively, and far more safely.

Oligarchs in Russia have less say and targeting them is less useful than many believe. They are not the Koch brothers in the US, they are just useful quite temporary custodians of bank accounts.

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

things

If I were more focused, I would like your every comment, just for the scope.

[Werthead]

Looks like heavy fighting resuming in the Izyum area. Russian forces pushing south have apparently been stalled about 20km from the town for several days. Ukrainians shown stripping destroyed Russian columns.

The big new "Russian Convoy" is holding station near Izyum. The US DoD seems to think it's mainly a resupply column with a small number of reinforcing vehicles. The convoy has reported been attacked, but they're not sure about that. A lot of resupply going on up there and other, smaller convoys have certainly been hit.

Analysis seems to be that the Russians are at least doubling their local forces in the area before resuming the attack on Donbas, but that is being interrupted by continuing Russian attacks which are bleeding their strength whilst they're trying to build it up. It looks like the Russians remain torn between a proper pullback to resupply and keeping the pressure on Ukraine to stop its own reinforcing.

The presidents of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are visiting Kyiv today to discuss what further help they can provide. Finland's parliament has also begun debating the process of joining NATO.

47 minutes ago, a free shadow said:

Oligarchs in Russia have less say and targeting them is less useful than many believe. They are not the Koch brothers in the US, they are just useful quite temporary custodians of bank accounts.

If I were more focused, I would like your every comment, just for the scope.

It can help a bit because some of Putin's personal fortune is locked away by the oligarchs, so sanctioning them can hit Putin's personal pockets. But it's not as effective as people though it was because Putin seems to have kept a lot of his money in Russia itself. Being cut off from the external world is much less of a personal problem for him than it is other oligarchs who effectively lived on the Mediterranean or in Paris or whatever.

[Loge]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The presidents of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are visiting Kyiv today to discuss what further help they can provide. Finland's parliament has also begun debating the process of joining NATO.

The German president was supposed to have been part of that group but was told to stay away by the Ukrainians. Maybe he can visit Putin...

[Werthead]

Deranged (but sadly believable) Ukrainian intelligence story early on about the Kremlin instructing the Russian forces in Mariupol to (upon victory) immediately begin preparations for a victory parade through the city centre on 9 May. Suggestion that on 8/9 May Russia will immediately suspend operations and declare victory absolutely regardless of where their forces actually are.

These preparations apparently involve using the captive population to start cleanup efforts immediately. However, it has apparently been communicated back that that captive population either won't exist or will be in no fit state for heavy labour, and the city has been so utterly destroyed it would be like driving a victory parade through a lot of concrete and destroyed buildings. Unclear if the idea is still being mooted.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Deranged (but sadly believable) Ukrainian intelligence story early on about the Kremlin instructing the Russian forces in Mariupol to immediately begin preparations for a victory parade through the city centre on 9 May. Suggestion that on 8/9 May Russia will immediately suspend operations and declare victory absolutely regardless of where their forces actually are.

Credit to the defenders of Mariupol - they are putting up a heroic resistance and greatly helping the overall strategic situation for their military by holding out.  But it feels pretty unlikely that organized resistance will still be going on three weeks from now.

That said, hard to imagine there's a ton of propaganda value of tromping through Maruipol.  "Look at all this rubble we've captured!"  I guess they could line up some destroyed Ukrainian equipment and march past that...

[Fez]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

General Atomics has agreed in principle a deal to sell Predator and Reaper drones to Ukraine. They want government approval to do that though. It's an interesting idea, and if you've already done Switchblades and Bayraktars (which are more modern and advanced) the argument is why not? Though I believe Reapers at least have a significantly larger payload than either of the more modern drones.

Reports of some Ukrainian units surrendering in Mariupol but others not. It sounds like the Azovs are simply going to fight to the last soldier because they expected to be either killed on sight or executed after capture.

 

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Credit to the defenders of Mariupol - they are putting up a heroic resistance and greatly helping the overall strategic situation for their military by holding out.  But it feels pretty unlikely that organized resistance will still be going on three weeks from now.

That said, hard to imagine there's a ton of propaganda value of tromping through Maruipol.  "Look at all this rubble we've captured!"  I guess they could line up some destroyed Ukrainian equipment and march past that...

 

Reporting from the Kyiv Post is that the remaining Ukrainian Marines in Mariupol attempted two breakout actions last night. Some tried to get out of the city, and it's still unclear how successful that was. The rest successfully linked up with the remaining Azov Regiment members to get ready for a last stand in the industrial district. 

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrainian-marines-attempt-breakout-from-mariupol-siege-azov-regiment-remains-to-fight-on.html

So yeah, sounds like the siege of Mariupol is in its last stages.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

27 minutes ago, Fez said:

 

 

Reporting from the Kyiv Post is that the remaining Ukrainian Marines in Mariupol attempted two breakout actions last night. Some tried to get out of the city, and it's still unclear how successful that was. The rest successfully linked up with the remaining Azov Regiment members to get ready for a last stand in the industrial district. 

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrainian-marines-attempt-breakout-from-mariupol-siege-azov-regiment-remains-to-fight-on.html

So yeah, sounds like the siege of Mariupol is in its last stages.

If Mariupol falls… how broken will the Russian forces in Mariupol be?

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If Mariupol falls… how broken will the Russian forces in Mariupol be?

I don't think that Russia will free up a bunch of forces for an offensive elsewhere if that is what you are asking.  Quite a few units engaged there have been exhausted.  The advantage for Russia is that Mariupol has been a constant drain on resources, and that will cease.

[Zorral]

Regarding the alleged May 9th plans, it remains astounding just how much of Hitler's playbook for this region Putin has followed, with same consequences, including the actions which destroy/deplete the population with the essential skills to accomplish the goals of destroying the population and infrastructure in the first place.  (No, that didn't quite make sense, because that is how it rolls, over and over -- committing actions that make impossible to create the desired outcome.) Also the resettlement of appropriate populations from elsewhere fails because there just isn't enough 'appropriate' population in the first place (particularly the correctly blooded sort), and it doesn't want to move anyway.

The same consequences include not least the death and maiming of untold numbers of people, and the destruction of their homes and all the infrastructure.

This is what we get with war throughout history.  Too many of the leaders treat making war the same way so many of our current history's people do, as a war game, a video game, a computer game, where one can just move pieces around at whim to accomplish the objective.  Which leaves out everything that making war involves, whether or not one wishes it to, including moving anything or anyone, from point a to point b.

Not to mention just this minor fantasy of the Putin Plan, to send the Ukrainians to Rwanda to be processed for resettlement in some other country.  Hitler early in thought he'd remove unwanted populations from 'the east', particularly from Poland, to Mozambique, where they could learn German and perform productive work in German factories.  Never mind that Germany didn't control Mozambique -- or even 'the east'.  It would all happen because that's how he moved the pieces on the board (of his mind).

[a free shadow]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

It can help a bit because some of Putin's personal fortune is locked away by the oligarchs, so sanctioning them can hit Putin's personal pockets. But it's not as effective as people though it was because Putin seems to have kept a lot of his money in Russia itself. Being cut off from the external world is much less of a personal problem for him than it is other oligarchs who effectively lived on the Mediterranean or in Paris or whatever.

I meant it mostly in the way that too many people assume if the oligarchs get pressured they will in turn pressure Putin, etc.  The truth is they are in no position to pressure Putin whatsoever, he gave a lot of their wealth and he can take (most of) it away. Very few would also want to do that even if they could. They are not the bright or the brave, they are people chosen for their convenience.

As regards Putin's personal wealth being hit, it is not as if he is out of spending money or cannot replace it by continuing to loot his own country. It is more of an annoyance or affront than a real consequence.

Similar answer applies to the most imaginary "someone from Putin's inner circle will step up and stop him from doing the worst". No. He surrounded himself with people who are often thicker than himself. That is why it is crucial that Ukrainians beat them down in the battlefield. That is what might make a difference.

[Wilbur]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

General Atomics has agreed in principle a deal to sell Predator and Reaper drones to Ukraine. They want government approval to do that though. It's an interesting idea, and if you've already done Switchblades and Bayraktars (which are more modern and advanced) the argument is why not? Though I believe Reapers at least have a significantly larger payload than either of the more modern drones.

Reports of some Ukrainian units surrendering in Mariupol but others not. It sounds like the Azovs are simply going to fight to the last soldier because they expected to be either killed on sight or executed after capture.

I have actually been surprised that GA didn't begin selling at least Predators to Ukraine earlier.  They are no longer in production for US forces, and although they are definitely controlled technology, it seems to me like they are perfectly suited to Ukraine's needs.  The No-Tax Rotax ought to be easy for the Ukrainian forces to service, and they can arm it with whatever they want.

The Reaper is probably more likely to require specific US Gov't. approval to sell to Ukraine, but I would certainly be in favor of such a sale.

[Gorn]

34 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I have actually been surprised that GA didn't begin selling at least Predators to Ukraine earlier.  They are no longer in production for US forces, and although they are definitely controlled technology, it seems to me like they are perfectly suited to Ukraine's needs.  The No-Tax Rotax ought to be easy for the Ukrainian forces to service, and they can arm it with whatever they want.

The Reaper is probably more likely to require specific US Gov't. approval to sell to Ukraine, but I would certainly be in favor of such a sale.

Because why spend $100 million on a Predator when you can spend $2 million on a Bayraktar that your army already knows how to operate? Bayraktar is actually superior to a Predator in some respects (4 missile hardpoints vs 2), and both are equally likely to be shot down by Russian fighter planes or air defenses.

[maarsen]

I saw an article on my news feed about a Russian drone show down and opened up. It had an older Canon camera in it velcroed down and the mode selector glued on the proper setting.  Someone reasonably high up took the money meant for proper drones, pocketed that and bought a load of cheap stuff off of Ebay. 

[Werthead]

Czech-supplied self-propelled howitzers are already operating in Ukraine. Those are speedy artillery able to fire and reposition relatively quickly.

Russian S300s taking up position in Luhansk, which seems a bit close to the front lines (and I doubt the Ukrainians are going to be deploying their remaining fast jets over that theatre, so pointless). Might be a good test run of the Switchblades.

 

[Werthead]

OSINT sources got very emotional today. Visual, geolocated confirmation of the 500th (yes, five hundredth) Russian tank loss since hostilities began.

Wow. The US is sending to Ukraine 155mm howitzers, counter-artillery radars, Sentinel air surveillance radars, 300 additional Switchblade drone (that might be drone systems, which would be 3,000 individual drones!), M113 APCs, Mi-17 helicopters, and unmanned coastal defence vessels (drone ships).

 

[Werthead]

Early reports that two Ukrainian shore-launched Neptune missiles (their own brand!) from Odesa hit the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, inflicting heavy damage. Two tugs are currently pulling the ship out of range.

What the hell it was doing so close to Odesa is unclear. No sign of an amphibious operation in progress. This is the ship Ukrainian marines told to go F itself on the opening day of the conflict.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

27 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Early reports that two Ukrainian shore-launched Neptune missiles (their own brand!) from Odesa hit the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, inflicting heavy damage. Two tugs are currently pulling the ship out of range.

What the hell it was doing so close to Odesa is unclear. No sign of an amphibious operation in progress. This is the ship Ukrainian marines told to go F itself on the opening day of the conflict.

They should take another shot.  If it’s damaged it could be sunk.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

They should take another shot.  If it’s damaged it could be sunk.

I get the impression they've been lobbing Neptunes at the Black Sea Fleet since the war started and the ships' close-in air defences have been successfully intercepting them. For some reason the Moskva moved much closer to the shore than it had been previously, reducing the flight time below the threshold needed to guarantee interception.

I'm not sure on the war crimes status of blowing up a ship whilst two civilian vessels are towing it to safety, but it's probably best not to go there.