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Ukraine 12: When is this an existential threat?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I get the impression they've been lobbing Neptunes at the Black Sea Fleet since the war started and the ships' close-in air defences have been successfully intercepting them. For some reason the Moskva moved much closer to the shore than it had been previously, reducing the flight time below the threshold needed to guarantee interception.

I'm not sure on the war crimes status of blowing up a ship whilst two civilian vessels are towing it to safety, but it's probably best not to go there.

Is there confirmation of the hit?

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54 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I get the impression they've been lobbing Neptunes at the Black Sea Fleet since the war started and the ships' close-in air defences have been successfully intercepting them. For some reason the Moskva moved much closer to the shore than it had been previously, reducing the flight time below the threshold needed to guarantee interception.

I'm not sure on the war crimes status of blowing up a ship whilst two civilian vessels are towing it to safety, but it's probably best not to go there.

Eh, the USN was happy to sink IJN ships under tow during WW2.  I could get over it.

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52 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm not sure on the war crimes status of blowing up a ship whilst two civilian vessels are towing it to safety, but it's probably best not to go there.

Any civilian vehicle being used to transport military assets is itself a legitimate military target.

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7 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Claims seem to be all over the place. The more rational outlets are expressing skepticism - but that assessment might have changed already.

I believe it when OSINTtechnical shows tractors with snorkels. 

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Russian intelligence has confirmed that the ship is on fire and has been evacuated.  Most likely it is dead in the water.

They didn't say anything about the fire being caused by a Ukrainian missile, but I'm sure they just left that part out.

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Early reports that two Ukrainian shore-launched Neptune missiles (their own brand!) from Odesa hit the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, inflicting heavy damage. Two tugs are currently pulling the ship out of range.

What the hell it was doing so close to Odesa is unclear. No sign of an amphibious operation in progress. This is the ship Ukrainian marines told to go F itself on the opening day of the conflict.

My guess would be that they were running short on missiles, which are expensive anyway, and therefore had to rely on their cannon to shell Odesa. According to Wikipedia, the range of the Slava class's cannon is 23 km. Which is not particularly great.

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12 minutes ago, Loge said:

My guess would be that they were running short on missiles, which are expensive anyway, and therefore had to rely on their cannon to shell Odesa. According to Wikipedia, the range of the Slava class's cannon is 23 km. Which is not particularly great.

Moskwa had no missiles for ground attacks. It was supposed to fight aircraft carriers. They did apparently regular feint landing operations, maybe she got caught in one.

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8 minutes ago, kiko said:

Moskwa had no missiles for ground attacks. It was supposed to fight aircraft carriers. They did apparently regular feint landing operations, maybe she got caught in one.

Well, the Black Sea isn't exactly swarming with aircraft carriers. I'm not an expert but I guess those missiles can be used on targets on shore, too. Probably not a very smart use of scarce resources, though. However, there have been quite a few reports on targets in western Ukraine being hit by missiles. Those must have been deployed either by aircraft or ship. (Ground-based systems were forbidden until recently under the INF treaty. Russia can't have many of them.)

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There's talk that the black sea fleet will now need to be a bit more cautious in supporting Kherson.  Particularly against drones/air attack, because that was the cruiser's main function.  

I hope they are right.  A lot of speculation that if the Ukrainians can threaten the bridge back to Crimea the Russians will abandon the city rather than risk being cut off.  That would be a huge win and save a lot of lives in Kherson.

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Kherson airport was also attacked tonight, supposedly for the 15th time. Apparently, Russians thought that the location whose coordinates every artilleryman in Ukraine knows by heart would be the perfect place for a vehicle maintenance depot.

All in all, not a great day for Russia's military.

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Osint is claiming the Neptunes have only been in operation for 2 weeks. Ukraine waited for bad weather, flew a drone out to distract the warship, and launched the Neptunes. They had tested the Russian reaction and response time with another drone earlier in the week. Sounds like the plan worked perfectly, very impressive. Intercepted communications indicate it was only partially evacuated as strong winds and swells hindered efforts.

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7 hours ago, Werthead said:

I get the impression they've been lobbing Neptunes at the Black Sea Fleet since the war started and the ships' close-in air defences have been successfully intercepting them. For some reason the Moskva moved much closer to the shore than it had been previously, reducing the flight time below the threshold needed to guarantee interception.

I'm not sure on the war crimes status of blowing up a ship whilst two civilian vessels are towing it to safety, but it's probably best not to go there.

I think it would be a war crime to attack ships that were rescuing stranded sailors, but now that the sailors have been evacuated, it would be entirely in order to attack any ship that was trying to tow the Moskva.

It looks as if the Moskva has now been redeployed as a submarine.

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39 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Well our chancellor claims that Putin told our him that our gas supply is safe.

He claims that he did not mention it and Putin broached the topic himself.

Mission accomplished I suspect.

Have to set priorities I guess.

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