Ukraine 12: When is this an existential threat?

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

It looks as if the Moskva has now been redeployed as a submarine.

At least it would be if it wasn't being towed away by a Ukrainian farmer's tractor. 

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces apparently counter-attacking in Izyum this morning (the area, not the town, I believe). It looks like a fuel storage depot near Chornobaivka, on the outskirts of Kherson, was also hit

I am concerned that Ukrainian civilians seem to be doing a better job of clearing up potholes and, er, blast holes in the road than my local council is of fixing potholes in a non-warzone.

 

9 hours ago, Loge said:

Well, the Black Sea isn't exactly swarming with aircraft carriers. I'm not an expert but I guess those missiles can be used on targets on shore, too. Probably not a very smart use of scarce resources, though. However, there have been quite a few reports on targets in western Ukraine being hit by missiles. Those must have been deployed either by aircraft or ship. (Ground-based systems were forbidden until recently under the INF treaty. Russia can't have many of them.)

Russia has exactly 1 (one) aircraft carrier which has been undergoing refitting in Murmansk for three years and doesn't seem to be in a fit state for redeployment (and was barely seaworthy before that, catching fire several times and belching black smoke when it sailed anywhere).

6 hours ago, Makk said:

Osint is claiming the Neptunes have only been in operation for 2 weeks. Ukraine waited for bad weather, flew a drone out to distract the warship, and launched the Neptunes. They had tested the Russian reaction and response time with another drone earlier in the week. Sounds like the plan worked perfectly, very impressive. Intercepted communications indicate it was only partially evacuated as strong winds and swells hindered efforts.

Interesting. Ukraine built the Neptune and has had it in their pocket for years now. I wonder if they were holding back on using it as a defensive weapon for Odesa, but now see the value in using it offensively to support an effort on Kherson.

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, kiko said:

Have to set priorities I guess.

There was never a doubt about that in my mind.

As soon as things get uncomfortable economically and people start to get annoyed by refugees the majority in Austria will become pro Russia. We are big on the fake news here.

The same as with the refugees in 2015 and COVID. We are predictable.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

A bit of Trolling at the Russian embassy in Washington DC.

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1514422654152982529?s=21&t=C8A8-aDsuOZzcsBZXSxPSg

 

[Werthead]

Russia has said it will deploy nuclear weapons and submarines to the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Someone replied aren't there already nukes in Kaliningrad, to which the Russian response was basically, "Erm."

Peskov did, rather grumpily, clarify that although Russia does not want to see Finland and Sweden in NATO, there is a different calculus to that situation because Russia does not have territorial disputes with either nation (oddly the fact that a lot of the equipment Russia would need to confront NATO is currently being sent to Ukrainian scrapyards did not come up).

Some reports of a Ukrainian helicopter attack in Bryansk region, Russian side of the border. No confirmation, and it seems quite far into Russian territory compared to other Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil.

In a possible technological gamechanger moment, Israel has successfully tested a laser-based missile defence system.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

In a possible technological gamechanger moment, Israel has successfully tested a laser-based missile defence system.

But can you equip it onto a shark?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia has said it will deploy nuclear weapons and submarines to the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Someone replied aren't there already nukes in Kaliningrad, to which the Russian response was basically, "Erm."

Peskov did, rather grumpily, clarify that although Russia does not want to see Finland and Sweden in NATO, there is a different calculus to that situation because Russia does not have territorial disputes with either nation (oddly the fact that a lot of the equipment Russia would need to confront NATO is currently being sent to Ukrainian scrapyards did not come up).

Some reports of a Ukrainian helicopter attack in Bryansk region, Russian side of the border. No confirmation, and it seems quite far into Russian territory compared to other Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil.

In a possible technological gamechanger moment, Israel has successfully tested a laser-based missile defence system.

I love watching Peskov sqwirm.  Do you have a link?

[Zorral]

Russia's declaring genocide, not even pretending it's anything else.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/russias-war-ukraine-founders-ominous-rhetoric-gains-ground/

Quote

 

.... “It’s no accident we call them Nazis,” said Margarita Simonyan, who also heads the Kremlin-backed media group that operates the Sputnik and RIA Novosti news agencies. “What makes you a Nazi is your bestial nature, your bestial hatred and your bestial willingness to tear out the eyes of children on the basis of nationality.” ....

.... Russia’s astonishing shift toward genocidal speech has been swift and seamless. Moscow officials stepped up warnings that Russia was fighting for its survival. Pundits condemned peace talks and scorned troops’ withdrawal from Kyiv and surrounding areas. ....

.... The Tass news agency reported last week that Russian officials said 674,000 Ukrainians had been moved to Russia — voluntarily, they claimed. Ukrainian officials’ accusations about their treatment have been difficult to verify.

With the redeployment of Russian forces to eastern Ukraine, the rhetoric is likely to ratchet up further.

At great risk for Ukraine and Russia, Putin signals a dark endgame

Less than two weeks before the invasion, Putin used a crude reference to express his determination to force Kyiv to accept Russia’s terms for peaceful coexistence: “Like it or not, put up with it, my beauty,” a term associated with rape for many Russians. Ukraine’s resistance has only toughened the Kremlin’s mood.

Yet Finkel fears that a Russian victory would not only destroy Ukraine but upend the post-World War II global order.

“That’s something I have been thinking about a lot. I think it will be a pretty scary world,” he said. “For Russia, it’s a test of the idea that might makes right — and we have the power, so we can do whatever we want.” ....

 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Russia's declaring genocide, not even pretending it's anything else.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/russias-war-ukraine-founders-ominous-rhetoric-gains-ground/

 

Oh, Putin loves abuser logic.  He looks at Ukriane and says: “Why do you make me do this… why do you make me so mad?”

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Russia's declaring genocide, not even pretending it's anything else.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/russias-war-ukraine-founders-ominous-rhetoric-gains-ground/

Yes, disturbing and I think it's right to be concerned.

However, you again have to look at Russia's ability to enforce its will on Ukraine, which has so far been limited (although it's nonetheless worrying how many casualties and how much damage Russia has been able to inflict with relatively limited territories taken, and how quickly). If Russia is unable to break through the Donbas and with the Ukrainian ability to resist increasing, its ability to enact the things it threatens weakens. The only way it can succeed is with a massive full mobilisation or an escalation to using weapons that means it loses control of the situation, which is against Putin and Russia's interests.

That is not to say it will not happen, especially because Putin does seem to be acting partially emotionally about Ukraine rather than his previous unemotional, logical analyses of crisis points. But Russia is also under pressure to finish this war ASAP because its rate of equipment and personnel losses is unsustainable, and the impact of food shortages caused by the war on some of Russia's own allies is likely to become pressing in a matter of weeks to months.

We also need to remember that the Russians know this information is disseminated to the outside world. They want people frightened and uneasy, not instead looking at Russia's capability to do as it has threatened and noting rather huge problems and weaknesses there.

[Zorral]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

We also need to remember that the Russians know this information is disseminated to the outside world. They want people frightened and uneasy, not instead looking at Russia's capability to do as it has threatened and noting rather huge problems and weaknesses there.

We also need to remember They do what They say They will do, Putin, here in the US -- and it does seem the tories in the UK as well -- the reichlicans, in particular.  They do do what They say, as far as They can.  Then They start all over again to get to where say they are going.

[Werthead]

A former Russian government official has been analysing the course of the conflict and does not believe it is sustainable in even the medium term.

 

Quote

 

Putin needs something he can present at home as a victory, he says. "The question is how much is enough?"

If you follow his most recent statements, says Kortunov, just two days ago, he made the argument that the sole mission of the operation in Ukraine was to protect the people of Donbas. This implies it's not about regime change in Ukraine - but rather about securing the gains that Russia has achieved in the east of the country, he says.

Kortunov also believes any escalation might require some kind of mobilisation and the "political risk for the Russian leadership will increase".

"People in Russia do not really want to go fighting against Ukrainians.

"Public support for the leadership might go down if this whole thing escalates or if this whole thing lasts for too long."

He adds: "I see signs of fatigue... Maybe it's too early to say that the Russian public is changing its views on the conflict, but definitely it cannot last for too long."

 

 

 

Quote

We also need to remember They do what They say They will do, Putin, here in the US -- and it does seem the tories in the UK as well -- the reichlicans, in particular.  They do do what They say, as far as They can.  Then They start all over again to get to where say they are going.

Yes, that is a concern, and actually those longing for an end to the war and a return to "normality" need to remember it will be a different normality to before 23 February, with a much greater focus on international alliances and maintaining a greater readiness of force than Russia, whilst Russia no doubt tries to influence and break apart those alliances (and will be keen for a Le Pen victory in France and a Republican victory in the US in 2024, and for a chance to stir up trouble in the Balkans and move Hungary even further away from the European mainstream). But we were in that position before for forty-five years and eventually Russia failed, and Russia is in absolutely no way as commanding a position now as it was then.

We also need to remember that Putin's Russia has sent an unambiguous signal to the world about what it is now prepared to do and what actions it will take to get there, and it has misstepped by doing so at a point when it is still significantly weaker than those opponents. Its opponents now know they have to counter Russia over the long term and those opponents are richer and more capable than Russia and can do so. Russia's potential allies are wary over Russia's unpredictability and "loose cannon" status (though do not rule out China pivoting and finding a way of using Russia and its international pariah status to its own future advantage).

We should not underestimate Putin's Russia, fall into a new era of complacency or ignore what's going on there. We should not also hide under our blankets or live every second in mortal fear of an opponent whose measure we now know a great deal more about than we did a few weeks ago.

[SpaceChampion]

Apparently Moskva was built in Ukraine too, in 1979.  Reminds me of the joke "I brought you into this world, I can take you out!"

[Zorral]

Whether or not Putin can sustain this indefinitely, in the meantime he IS murdering and raping and displacing thousands, and continues every day.

[Maithanet]

22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

A former Russian government official has been analysing the course of the conflict and does not believe it is sustainable in even the medium term.

We talked about the cost of this invasion, and estimates vary between $2-20 billion USD a day.  If we go with something like $4 billion a day, then we're at about $200 billion for the whole invasion (ignoring the costs of the buildup, which were also substantial).  That's quite a bit to spend in 7 weeks for a country that has a GDP of 1.4 billion. 

There's been talk about Putin refusing to give in and allowing the war to stalemate, rather than negotiating a true peace treaty.  While I'm sure that a stalemated war would cost less than an active one, it is still going to be pretty expensive for Russia to maintain. Just holding on to the areas they've already conquered will require a considerable investment in equipment and lives. 

I can't help but wonder if the best possible result for Russia would be to just get recognition of the Jan 2022 borders by Ukraine and call it a day. I'm sure Russia doesn't see it that way, but it is really hard for me to see a situation where Russia is politically or militarily stronger in 10-20 years if they attempt to hold on to any more.  Doubling down on a bad hand over and over again just means you lose more and more.  The invasion of Ukraine looked like a losing proposition for Russia even in January (when everyone expected their military to perform far better and successfully conquer most/all of the country).  It looks even worse now.   

[Werthead]

Looking at Russia itself, it appears that something of a low-key voluntary recruitment drive has failed to turn up any significant numbers of Russian volunteer conscripts. Even those happy to back the operation on social media and on the streets seem oddly reluctant to actually sign up and join the war effort. This drive has offered "short-term contracts," and some indications that people who take up the offer might be free of the obligation for joining the longer, one-year draft, but no dice.

In addition, apparently Russian soldiers operating in Ukraine were promised special bonus payouts, the first of which failed to appear as promised. This has led to some units refusing to advance. Ukrainian sources suggest maybe an entire battalion has downed weapons and refused to budge until the issue is sorted out. How widespread the problem is remains unclear. There are also reports of officers vetting care packages sent to soldiers by their families, in some cases resulting in the soldiers receiving an empty box. There are also the traditional reluctant soldier things going on (one soldier saying in an intercepted call that he's going to start walking with a limp to get rotated out), and stories of soldiers deliberately beaching their tanks in mud or deliberately running out of petrol have been going on since the first week of the war. It does sound like the problem is now considerably more widespread.

Quote

"There is such fuckery going on here, I'm telling you, 600 people have resigned from our brigade throughout this time, well about that much, give or take. Everyone is going home, they are just dumping their stuff and saying, "I'm going home," and then leaving."

Apparently there's been a "total clusterfuck" in Bryansk where newly-arrived soldiers hearing stories about the fighting have refused to be deployed and are being fired and having papers written up on them in large numbers.

[a free shadow]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I can't help but wonder if the best possible result for Russia would be to just get recognition of the Jan 2022 borders by Ukraine and call it a day.

Not sure if you might be including Crimea into it, but if so, Russia is in no position to call it a day, as Ukraine will not give up Crimea. Not until the outside support completely runs out and can be not even then. As they should.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Looking at Russia itself, it appears that something of a low-key voluntary recruitment drive has failed to turn up any significant numbers of Russian volunteer conscripts. Even those happy to back the operation on social media and on the streets seem oddly reluctant to actually sign up and join the war effort. This drive has offered "short-term contracts," and some indications that people who take up the offer might be free of the obligation for joining the longer, one-year draft, but no dice.

In addition, apparently Russian soldiers operating in Ukraine were promised special bonus payouts, the first of which failed to appear as promised. This has led to some units refusing to advance. Ukrainian sources suggest maybe an entire battalion has downed weapons and refused to budge until the issue is sorted out. How widespread the problem is remains unclear. There are also reports of officers vetting care packages sent to soldiers by their families, in some cases resulting in the soldiers receiving an empty box. There are also the traditional reluctant soldier things going on (one soldier saying in an intercepted call that he's going to start walking with a limp to get rotated out), and stories of soldiers deliberately beaching their tanks in mud or deliberately running out of petrol have been going on since the first week of the war. It does sound like the problem is now considerably more widespread.

Apparently there's been a "total clusterfuck" in Bryansk where newly-arrived soldiers hearing stories about the fighting have refused to be deployed and are being fired and having papers written up on them in large numbers.

A Russian Army Mutiny would be a beautiful thing to behold.

[Kalbear]

Russia is also probably gambling that they can outlast western fickleness and western desire for cheap shit and lack of a single bit of pain in their lives. Russia can't sustain this level of fighting forever, true, but will the west keep sending arms and tech to Ukraine when gas costs slightly more in a month?

[Werthead]

7 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Russia is also probably gambling that they can outlast western fickleness and western desire for cheap shit and lack of a single bit of pain in their lives. Russia can't sustain this level of fighting forever, true, but will the west keep sending arms and tech to Ukraine when gas costs slightly more in a month?

I fear they will be disappointed. A certain number of countries - Poland, all three Baltics, the Czech Republic, Romania and any other ex-Soviet bloc country with a long memory - will happily supply Ukraine with whatever they can for as long as it takes.

As noted yesterday, the United States has massively ramped up its supply of heavier equipment to Ukraine. Sending them three thousand drones, including some which are so new they have literally never seen combat, anti-artillery systems and sea drones is not a sign of the US backing down, let alone the countries right on their borders.

The conflict has also now been going on long enough for weapons manufacturers in the west to kick their production lines into overdrive and are now churning stuff out and having it arrive in Ukraine within a couple of days.

Even Germany is now looking at sending Leopard tanks and is taking provisional steps to cut off the Russian gas supply altogether.