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Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW


Rondo
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1 minute ago, Rondo said:

Bowen Marsh will do his best to pull the watch back together but the destruction caused by Jon's affections for his little sister Arya is too much.  The watch will collapse because its leader could not stay true to the vows.  Jon abused his leadership to rescue a girl who he thought was his crazy little Arya.  The best case is the widlings leaves the wall and the remaining men are all loyal to Bowen Marsh and their duty to stop the Others.  

What duty to stop the Others? Bowen doesn't seem interested in stopping the Others, he just wants to keep the wildlings out.

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30 minutes ago, Rondo said:

Jon's bond with his Stark family destroyed the Night's Watch.  Snow Flake just could not leave well enough alone.  He had to involve the watch in the conflict between his now homeless and destitute Stark family and the new wardens of the north.  What had stood united for thousands and thousands of years will be broken because of Jon.  

The wildling barbarians will do as Jon wanted and raid Roose Bolton.  It will not end well for the north.  The wall will be at its weakest at the worst moment.  All of that screw up is because of Jon.

 

5 minutes ago, Rondo said:

Bowen Marsh will do his best to pull the watch back together but the destruction caused by Jon's affections for his little sister Arya is too much.  The watch will collapse because its leader could not stay true to the vows.  Jon abused his leadership to rescue a girl who he thought was his crazy little Arya.  The best case is the widlings leaves the wall and the remaining men are all loyal to Bowen Marsh and their duty to stop the Others.  

Delete my post now mods

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1 hour ago, Rondo said:

The wildling barbarians will do as Jon wanted and raid Roose Bolton.  It will not end well for the north.  The wall will be at its weakest at the worst moment.  All of that screw up is because of Jon.

Actually, I think all that screw up is because of Bowen, as Jon had come to an accord with the wildlings so they weren't going to raid anyone. Bowen has made the wall the weakest it's ever been.

1 hour ago, Rondo said:

What had stood united for thousands and thousands of years will be broken because of Jon.

I believe it could be broken because of Bowen. Hopefully Jon returns before the rotten pomegranate can cause any further damage.

Bowen must be in the running for worst Lord Steward ever of the Night's Watch. He has assassinated a Lord Commander and left the wall in a very precarious position facing its greatest threat.

1 hour ago, Rondo said:

The best case is the widlings leaves the wall and the remaining men are all loyal to Bowen Marsh and their duty to stop the Others.

I'm not sure how many men are loyal to Bowen. I will be generous and include the four(?) who helped him stab Jon plus Ser Alister. I give them five minutes before they are killed by loyal watchmen, wildlings, the Queen's Men or all three combined.

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2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I'm not sure how many men are loyal to Bowen. I will be generous and include the four(?) who helped him stab Jon plus Ser Alister. I give them five minutes before they are killed by loyal watchmen, wildlings, the Queen's Men or all three combined.

Jon sent Ser. Allister Thorne ranging beyond The Wall, towards the middle of ADWD and he hasn't been scene since. So as much of a piece of crap he is, I don't think Ser. Alliser Thorne was involved in the assassination.

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3 minutes ago, sifth said:

Jon sent Ser. Allister Thorne ranging beyond The Wall, towards the middle of ADWD and he hasn't been scene since. So as much of a piece of crap he is, I don't think Ser. Alliser Thorne was involved in the assassination.

I know, I was just trying to come up with as many people as possible who could support Bowen, or at least wouldn't object to what he did. Not that Ser Allister can do anything about it anyway because the conspirators will be long dead by the time he gets back, if he gets back at all.

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On 4/26/2022 at 5:49 PM, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

The crows are not going to divide because Jon needed to be removed.  They will all understand what Marsh did.  Marsh is the ranking officer and he will sort the crows.  The free folk will be pissed and leave the wall. 

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7 hours ago, Finley McLeod said:

The crows are not going to divide because Jon needed to be removed.  They will all understand what Marsh did.  Marsh is the ranking officer and he will sort the crows.  The free folk will be pissed and leave the wall. 

No they won't...

The very fact that Bowen Marsh had to assassinate Jon away from other people, in the dark, and only had a few co-conspirators shows that support of his actions was not unanimous. I know it may be hard to believe but not everyone up on the wall is as bigoted, spineless and cowardly as he is.

The Wildlings are going to be pissed. They are going to kill Bowen because of it. Not leave the wall.

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16 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The very fact that Bowen Marsh had to assassinate Jon away from other people, in the dark,

He didn't tho, it was right outside of the hall after Jon's big speech. In front of the Queens men and such. 

Jon's assassination was very public 

16 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

only had a few co-conspirators shows that support of his actions was not unanimous.

Certainly not unanimous but it's minimum at four

16 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I know it may be hard to believe but not everyone up on the wall is as bigoted, spineless and cowardly as he is.

I don't think everyone is as bigoted as Bowen, only most. But I dont think anyone is as spineless and cowardly as Bowen Marsh, which makes me wonder how?

What was the steward thinking? A lifelong coward doesn't just turn assassin, especially without a backup plan.

16 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Wildlings are going to be pissed. They are going to kill Bowen because of it. Not leave the wall.

He's got their kids, if the Wildlings attack Marsh or leave the Wall the hostages are done for. The wildlings will be pissed, but Bowen is safe, for now.

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1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

He didn't tho, it was right outside of the hall after Jon's big speech. In front of the Queens men and such. 

Jon's assassination was very public 

Certainly not unanimous but it's minimum at four

I don't think everyone is as bigoted as Bowen, only most. But I dont think anyone is as spineless and cowardly as Bowen Marsh, which makes me wonder how?

What was the steward thinking? A lifelong coward doesn't just turn assassin, especially without a backup plan.

He's got their kids, if the Wildlings attack Marsh or leave the Wall the hostages are done for. The wildlings will be pissed, but Bowen is safe, for now.

My bets on Mel killing him. 

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On 4/26/2022 at 5:49 PM, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

The Brotherhood will not divide but the wildlings will stop cooperating and do as they want.  The #3. 

BM will send a letter to Ramsay to repair Jon's mistake and explain what had been going on at the wall. 

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8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He didn't tho, it was right outside of the hall after Jon's big speech. In front of the Queens men and such. 

Jon's assassination was very public 

It's been a while since I read the book and I don't have it on me but I thought there were only a few people around Jon, his two guards, and the conspirators.

Checking on A Search of Ice and Fire, Wun Wun was there and Ser Patrek was dead. Jon runs to Wun Wun when he hears screaming, he mentions that his two guards, Horse and Rory, come after him but doesn't mention anyone else. When they get there Ser Patrek is dead. Jon gives orders to keep the queens men back so they don't see Ser Patrek. Leathers is also there as Jon wants him to speak to Wun Wun in the old tongue and try to calm him down. People are watching from the towers but there is mass confusion with Wun Wun and Ser Patrek's remains so not everyone there is watching Jon. Jon specifically orders everyone to stay back so no one is near him when he is stabbed in the confusion. You are right that it was not as secretive as I previously thought. But I wouldn't say it was entirely in the open either. The conspirators wait specifically until everyone is distracted and that no-one is near Jon before stabbing him.

Having said that, this now makes even less sense than I previously thought because as soon as the Wun Wun situation is resolved people will notice almost instantly that Jon is stabbed. So unless Bowen and co. make a quick getaway they will almost instantly be realised as the perpetrators.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Certainly not unanimous but it's minimum at four

I think I mentioned that in a previous post.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He's got their kids, if the Wildlings attack Marsh or leave the Wall the hostages are done for. The wildlings will be pissed, but Bowen is safe, for now.

I don't know who would take charge of the hostages now that Jon is dead. I'm assuming it would be the new Lord Commander. While they are electing a new one I'm not sure. The first ranger, builder and steward all seem to be equal in rank. The issue is that Bowen is going to be killed very quickly, he will have no time to send any orders regarding the hostages, and that is assuming he is not going to be executed for killing the Lord Commander anyway. Jon's two guardsmen and Leathers are very close by. Both Bowen himself and his co-conspirator Wick are stewards unlikely to have much in the way of fighting prowess. 

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2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

It's been a while since I read the book and I don't have it on me but I thought there were only a few people around Jon, his two guards, and the conspirators.

Been a while since I read either. Jon has guards? I thought he kept refusing that suggestion from Mel.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

he mentions that his two guards, Horse and Rory,

Ah, word. iirc they were more like doormen then Jons personal guard. Specifically I dont think Jon personally appointed them (like he did with Leathers) thusly throwing their loyalty into suspect.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

You are right that it was not as secretive as I previously thought. But I wouldn't say it was entirely in the open either.

Right on Main street.

Quote

The knight's cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.

Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen's men … "Form a line," Jon Snow commanded them. "Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen's men."

(I will never get tired of the lone star being disrespected by the giant lol)
The lines are interesting, somehow Ive never focused on them. Theyre practically in battle position lol.

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

But I wouldn't say it was entirely in the open either. The conspirators wait specifically until everyone is distracted and that no-one is near Jon before stabbing him.

Having said that, this now makes even less sense than I previously thought because as soon as the Wun Wun situation is resolved people will notice almost instantly that Jon is stabbed. So unless Bowen and co. make a quick getaway they will almost instantly be realised as the perpetrators.


Patrik and Wun Wun put on a show, most eyes in CB (like Jons) is on them. Marsh then takes center stage and FortheWatches. 
Was this on cue? Its not difficult to imagine a scenario where bigoted bowen tells the queens men that the giant doesnt respect Rhllor or something.  However it is difficult to imagine the Steward, known craven and not a fool, kinglsaying like Jaime Lannister because he feels bad for Patrik, or Ramsay for that matter.
This all seems planned, Marsh knows what hes doing hence the tears. I dont believe the next part of his plan will be either hide in the linen closet, or simply die. 

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think I mentioned that in a previous post.

Word, I just wanted to stress the word minimum. It hasnt been that long since Jon won the election despite receiving few CB votes (those largely went to Janos) and since then hes sent most of his allies away (Grenn, Pyp, Sam, etc)

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't know who would take charge of the hostages now that Jon is dead. I'm assuming it would be the new Lord Commander. While they are electing a new one I'm not sure. The first ranger, builder and steward all seem to be equal in rank. The issue is that Bowen is going to be killed very quickly, he will have no time to send any orders regarding the hostages, and that is assuming he is not going to be executed for killing the Lord Commander anyway. Jon's two guardsmen and Leathers are very close by. Both Bowen himself and his co-conspirator Wick are stewards unlikely to have much in the way of fighting prowess. 

I think Bowen will be fine, for now. He personally was in charge of the kids so Im assuming if the wildlings kill him now then their kids are gone for sure, the queens men with all their steel and warhorses do not take part of the innerworkings of the NW (although Selyse is a wildcard) 
The NW needs an election, Mallister and Pyke may want to kill Marsh and the traitorous dogs of CB but their previous lord made it complicated inviting all these wildlings and queens men in the castle too. While neither loved Jon neither seemed to despise him either and I do think they have loyalty to Jon which would make them want to war on Marsh, however like most asoiaf folk their ambition will outweigh their loyalty and they will want to be all cordial and democratic so they themselves can be LC .
Rory and Horse, theres just so little information about them, like Wick, that I dont want to assume anything, so I naturally assume the worst. But Leathers can scrap and had love for his LC, theres no doubt, so I think hes gonna be a big character at the Snowless Wall.

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11 hours ago, sifth said:

My bets on Mel killing him. 

I dont think so. Shes not the murderous type, lol except for all those people she burns and/or shadowbabies, but still, thats more Stannis and shes just acting like the kings justice. I cant see Melisandre having so little control of her emotions that she'll take a mans life for the sole sake of vengance. 

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11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

This all seems planned, Marsh knows what hes doing hence the tears. I dont believe the next part of his plan will be either hide in the linen closet, or simply die.

Yes, I agree that it probably wasn't a spontaneous decision to just kill Jon, but I don't think it was a very good plan, I'm having a hard time picturing how Bowen could ever get out of this situation alive. Unless he planned to get rid of Jon in secret originally but recent events forced his hand and so he had to rush, which resulted in the killing being more in the open. But if he does have control of the children (I can't check because I don't have the book) then the wildlings hands may be tied. But that still wouldn't stop other watchmen or the Queens men from killing him.

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Was this on cue? Its not difficult to imagine a scenario where bigoted bowen tells the queens men that the giant doesnt respect Rhllor or something.

I thought Ser Patrek was trying to 'steal' Val so he could marry her?

14 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

since then hes sent most of his allies away (Grenn, Pyp, Sam, etc)

Yes, this was a mistake.

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

However it is difficult to imagine the Steward, known craven and not a fool, kinglsaying like Jaime Lannister because he feels bad for Patrik, or Ramsay for that matter.

This confuses me as well. Maybe someone put him up to it and then promised protection, like Tywin and the Freys with the Red Wedding.

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33 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I dont think so. Shes not the murderous type, lol except for all those people she burns and/or shadowbabies, but still, thats more Stannis and shes just acting like the kings justice. I cant see Melisandre having so little control of her emotions that she'll take a mans life for the sole sake of vengance. 

Yea, but she clearly thinks Jon is important to stopping The Others. He’s constantly showing up in her visions. If Marsh is a treat to saving the world by killing Jon, he won’t be for long.

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10 minutes ago, sifth said:

Yea, but she clearly thinks Jon is important to stopping The Others. He’s constantly showing up in her visions. If Marsh is a treat to saving the world by killing Jon, he won’t be for long.

I wonder what would happen if Melisandre starts to believe that Jon is Azor Ahai, not Stannis, and she got it wrong. Would she regret that she killed all those people for him? It would be a similar situation to Loras killing Ser Emmon and Ser Robar when he believed Brienne killed Renly and they let her escape. After he hears Brienne's side of the story and believes that Stannis may be responsible after all, he seems quite regretful that he killed them because they were innocent. Now obviously Melisandre could just not care at all and claim it was still the will of R'hlorr that they all died, or that their death was necessary so that she could find Jon, but I think it would be interesting if she had to admit to her failings in this regard.

Would Bowen really make a good sacrifice? He doesn't seem to have any king's blood, unless there was a king in house Marsh at some point, or they married another related to a king.

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