[Spoilers]Rings of Power 3: Tolkien’s actual writing… who needs that?

[The Bard of Banefort]

They started filming S2 before S1 even finished, so you can expect that they will be very similar. It wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon does what Lucasfilm did a few times, and bring in an “overseer” to tweak things along the way though.

What they can change is the marketing. They’re not going to get the Gen Z influencer types that they clearly wanted. They’d be better off promoting the sense of wonder associated with Middle Earth and the timeless battle of good vs. evil. Amazon may be disappointed that they didn’t get the endless theorizing associated with GOT or Star Wars, but I’d reckon that’s a blessing in disguise. You can’t live up to those expectations, and fans gets pissy when their expectations are subverted. They’re much better off with the legion of thirsty fangirls (and guys) that they inadvertently recruited.

And dear God, get some merch already. It’s honestly embarrassing that a mega conglomerate like Amazon hasn’t been able to suss this out yet, especially considering that we are rapidly approaching the holiday season.

[Le Cygne]

7 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

They started filming S2 before S1 even finished, so you can expect that they will be very similar. It wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon does what Lucasfilm did a few times, and bring in an “overseer” to tweak things along the way though.

Maybe the overseer person can clean up the obvious messes, like scenes where actors are alone and yet still being deceptive (hello Sauron), low hanging fruit for mockery.

(Also good question about Amazon merch... I saved a shipping bag until I lost faith in the show.)

[Heartofice]

4 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

What they can change is the marketing. They’re not going to get the Gen Z influencer types that they clearly wanted. They’d be better off promoting the sense of wonder associated with Middle Earth and the timeless battle of good vs. evil.

I'm not sure how you win over new viewers with marketing. If the show doesn't take a change of direction, if word of mouth does no improve then there won't be some new surge of viewers wanting to watch the show. If as you say they have already started on a second season then we can't expect any big differences. 

My hope is that at the very least the writing is tightened up, that can be improved, and if the show doesn't come out till 2024 then there is hopefully time to get things right. One of the main issues with the first season was that the writing was just workmanlike and felt lazy. As if it was the first pass of a script that was hurried together. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I'm not sure how you win over new viewers with marketing. If the show doesn't take a change of direction, if word of mouth does no improve then there won't be some new surge of viewers wanting to watch the show. If as you say they have already started on a second season then we can't expect any big differences. 

My hope is that at the very least the writing is tightened up, that can be improved, and if the show doesn't come out till 2024 then there is hopefully time to get things right. One of the main issues with the first season was that the writing was just workmanlike and felt lazy. As if it was the first pass of a script that was hurried together. 

Well, there is the thirst angle, which will bring in some new people haha. Let’s not pretend that wasn’t what drew a significant number of people to GOT early on.

I think the issue with the marketing was that it relied on language and approaches used among a very insular, progressive internet circle that most people find pretentious and moralistic. The show itself never felt particularly “woke,” for lack of a better term, but the marketing did. To use HOTD as a comparison, something I think Ryan Condal is excellent at is talking about the themes of the show while still sounding like an ordinary person, and not like someone who spends all day tweeting. 

It might also be beneficial to advertise this as a show that people of all ages can enjoy, like Star Wars does. That’s something that HOTD and The Witcher can’t do.

[Heartofice]

11 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Well, there is the thirst angle, which will bring in some new people haha. Let’s not pretend that wasn’t what drew a significant number of people to GOT early on.

I think the issue with the marketing was that it relied on language and approaches used among a very insular, progressive internet circle that most people find pretentious and moralistic. The show itself never felt particularly “woke,” for lack of a better term, but the marketing did. To use HOTD as a comparison, something I think Ryan Condal is excellent at is talking about the themes of the show while still sounding like an ordinary person, and not like someone who spends all day tweeting. 

It might also be beneficial to advertise this as a show that people of all ages can enjoy, like Star Wars does. That’s something that HOTD and The Witcher can’t do.

The problem for new people is they still need to get through season one!

[felice]

13 hours ago, Argonath Diver said:

Man I'm still sorting out what happened in between his Amazon-canon fleeing to an icy holdfast in the deepest North then became a masterplan to shipwreck himself across the Sundering Sea just in time to save a departing-but-reconsidering Galadriel.  

Adar stabbed him in the back and left him for dead, taking all his orcs with him. I doubt the shipwreck or meeting Galadriel was planned; I don't think he had any particular plans at that point, and he really would have been happy to stay in Numenor. How he knew what Adar was up to in the Southlands is unclear - if he does have some kind of magical tele-vision (is there a better word for that?) enabling him to see distant events, that could have let him know where to find Galadriel.

[Le Cygne]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

The problem for new people is they still need to get through season one!

Indeed, they need to get past all of the same problems many others saw.

 

[The Bard of Banefort]

New Nielsen ratings are out, and TROP is still performing well, behind Dahmer and Hocus Pocus 2, but in front of HOTD for the second week now:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/streaming-tv-rankings-oct-3-9-2022-1235255113/

People will say that it’s because HOTD also does linear viewings, but they were an episode ahead of ROP and if you look at the TV ratings (which are public info), they made up a very small portion of the overall viewership.

Now, are these ratings good enough to justify the most expensive TV show ever? Probably not. But it’s definitely not the failure that the YouTube bros keep claiming it is.

As an aside, are we going to find out in a month that Dahmer was the biggest show of the year? I have to say, the idea of a true crime miniseries outperforming ROP/HOTD/Stranger Things/Star Wars/Marvel is hilarious to me.

[Ran]

9 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

People will say that it’s because HOTD also does linear viewings, but they were an episode ahead of ROP and if you look at the TV ratings (which are public info), they made up a very small portion of the overall viewership.

TV viewing accounts for about  2 million viewers per episode day-of, 3 million across the week, per Vulture's report on both Nielsen public numbers and insider commentary. That's ~165-180 million additional minutes that need to be tacked on to HotD's numbers. 

 

[The Bard of Banefort]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

TV viewing accounts for about  2 million viewers per episode day-of, 3 million across the week, per Vulture's report on both Nielsen public numbers and insider commentary. That's ~165-180 million additional minutes that need to be tacked on to HotD's numbers. 

 

Okay, but the point is that ROP is not a flop. Just like HOTD isn’t a flop. I find HBO’s reporting on their stats a little manipulative, but other than that I don’t see what’s so important about the margin of error.

And either way, they’re both getting smashed by a true crime biopic created by the same guy who made Glee, and a TV movie where Bette Middler dresses up like a clown.

[DMC]

Just now, The Bard of Banefort said:

Okay, but the point is that ROP is not a flop. Just like HOTD isn’t a flop.

Yeah I think the important thing is that both are, at least, moderate successes - and there isn't really any discernible drop-off as the reports approach their finales, which some here anticipated (at least for ROP).  I don't care about the competition between the two, but I agree the fact Ryan Murphy's Dahmer is smashing everything is yet another disconcerting indicator about this country.

[Ran]

3 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Okay, but the point is that ROP is not a flop. Just like HOTD isn’t a flop. I find HBO’s reporting on their stats a little manipulative, but other than that I don’t see what’s so important about the margin of error.

And either way, they’re both getting smashed by a true crime biopic created by the same guy who made Glee, and a TV movie where Bette Middler dresses up like a clown.

RotP is not a flop, no. OTOH, it's basically pulling similar numbers to a show with half the  budget and half the reach which media (and to some degree HBO) have positioned as rivals. It does not look as impressive as it might have.

Comparing to Netflix shows is weird because they dump an entire season at once. People binge. If HotD or RotP had dumped all their episodes immediately, we would have been done talking about the two shows in about two weeks, and they would have had several billions of minutes watched in their respective first weeks.

[The Bard of Banefort]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

RotP is not a flop, no. OTOH, it's basically pulling similar numbers to a show with half the  budget and half the reach which media (and to some degree HBO) have positioned as rivals. It does not look as impressive as it might have.

Comparing to Netflix shows is weird because they dump an entire season at once. People binge. If HotD or RotP had dumped all their episodes immediately, we would have been done talking about the two shows in about two weeks, and they would have had several billions of minutes watched in their respective first weeks.

But even for a binge model, it’s doing shockingly well. It debuted three weeks before the weekly rating we’re discussing. I haven’t even watched it and I find that fascinating.

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I think the important thing is that both are, at least, moderate successes - and there isn't really any discernible drop-off as the reports approach their finales, which some here anticipated (at least for ROP).  I don't care about the competition between the two, but I agree the fact Ryan Murphy's Dahmer is smashing everything is yet another disconcerting indicator about this country.

I wouldn’t be too concerned about it. Humans are interested in the darker side of the human condition, just from a safe distance. Consider just how much of pop culture relies on references to Hitler and Nazis, if not outright depictions. Most of the time, it isn’t for educational purposes. I’m not a psychologist, but it wouldn’t surprise me if morbid fascination is something that’s been studied at length.

[DMC]

48 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I wouldn’t be too concerned about it. Humans are interested in the darker side of the human condition, just from a safe distance. Consider just how much of pop culture relies on references to Hitler and Nazis, if not outright depictions. Most of the time, it isn’t for educational purposes. I’m not a psychologist, but it wouldn’t surprise me if morbid fascination is something that’s been studied at length.

Oh I've always had a morbid fascination with serial killers myself.  That was more of a dig at Ryan Murphy appealing to, exploiting, and presenting the lowest common denominator.

[Veltigar]

An interesting article in the Guardian on the environmental impact of Rings of Power and other shows/movies like it in New Zealand:

Serious concerns raised in NZ about environmental impact of major productions including Amazon’s Rings of Power | New Zealand | The Guardian

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[The Bard of Banefort]

Some insights into ROP and HOTD’s viewership. The finale came in second on the Nielsen ratings after The Watcher (which I think premiered that day), so it finished strong.

https://variety.com/2022/streaming/news/house-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-streaming-ratings-1235429705/

[Heartofice]

15 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Some insights into ROP and HOTD’s viewership. The finale came in second on the Nielsen ratings after The Watcher (which I think premiered that day), so it finished strong.

https://variety.com/2022/streaming/news/house-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-streaming-ratings-1235429705/

I have to wonder how many people are watching these shows on not so legit streaming sites, and how that factors into viewing figures.
 

I always feel this is a bit distorted by where you have to go to watch a show. For instance in the UK HotD is probably a lot harder to watch than RoP simply because a lot of people already have Amazon Prime ( I have it for the free delivery and the tv shows are an added extra). 
 

Trying to do any kind of comparison becomes a bit unfair and maybe a bit fruitless 

[The Bard of Banefort]

14 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I have to wonder how many people are watching these shows on not so legit streaming sites, and how that factors into viewing figures.
 

I always feel this is a bit distorted by where you have to go to watch a show. For instance in the UK HotD is probably a lot harder to watch than RoP simply because a lot of people already have Amazon Prime ( I have it for the free delivery and the tv shows are an added extra). 
 

Trying to do any kind of comparison becomes a bit unfair and maybe a bit fruitless 

Nielsen also doesn’t include computer/cell phone views, so it’s always going to be a little distorted. I think it’s less about determining the exact number of views than determining the number of views/demographics within set parameters.

That said, most younger people stream on their laptops, so it’s odd that there are apparently so many watching HOTD through TV streaming.

[Le Cygne]

I guess a lot of this has already been said, but this is interesting, how the whole revenge thing is just off:

In Finrod’s case, he gives his life in order to defeat Sauron and the growing darkness the evil lord is spreading across the lands. But the reality of his death goes against this message of honor and love that Tolkien believed so deeply in, because it actually has the opposite effect. The Rings of Power series follows Galadriel’s journey after her brother’s death, and it is a journey of wrath and vengeance, as Finrod’s dagger symbolizes. And her own anger and need for justice actually keeps alive the very evil that she spends over a thousand years hunting down and seeking to destroy. So if anything, Finrod’s is not a heroic death as Tolkien would have intended, but a spark that ignites the greatest war Middle Earth has ever known.

https://gamerant.com/rings-of-power-death-goes-against-tolkien-beliefs/