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[kissdbyfire]

8 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What could go wrong with electing someone who claims to regularly talk to his dead dogs through a psychic and seeks their political opinions? 

Is this for real?

[SeanF]

8 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What could go wrong with electing someone who claims to regularly talk to his dead dogs through a psychic and seeks their political opinions? 

The alternatives have been so bad, for so long, that people think why not?

It’s hard to imagine that when I was born,  Argentina had a standard of living similar to Italy and Austria, and above Spain, Portugal, and Japan.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Is this for real?

Yep:

Quote

Still, perhaps nothing has raised more questions about the President-elect’s mental acuity and fitness to lead than the widely-reported (and ridiculed) matter of whom he turns to for advice: Conan, Murray, Milton, Robert, and Lucas. They were the first people he thanked when he finished first in the country’s presidential primaries in August—except they’re not really people.

“Who else?” he said. “My four-legged children,” referring to his five dogs whom he has called “the best strategists.”

https://time.com/6337474/javier-milei-argentina-president-cloned-dogs-advice/

I'm a bit confused by the part that he's both a self-proclaimed tantric sex guru and also opposes sex ed. His wiki page is wild and as far as I can tell it's pretty accurate. 

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

The alternatives have been so bad, for so long, that people think why not?

It’s hard to imagine that when I was born,  Argentina had a standard of living similar to Italy and Austria, and above Spain, Portugal, and Japan.

How old are you? I lived in a wealthy part of BA a decade ago and it wasn't exactly something I'd compare to the West. 

[maarsen]

10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What could go wrong with electing someone who claims to regularly talk to his dead dogs through a psychic and seeks their political opinions? 

Read your Canadian history. Canada's most successful PM did this.

[SeanF]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yep:

https://time.com/6337474/javier-milei-argentina-president-cloned-dogs-advice/

I'm a bit confused by the part that he's both a self-proclaimed tantric sex guru and also opposes sex ed. His wiki page is wild and as far as I can tell it's pretty accurate. 

How old are you? I lived in a wealthy part of BA a decade ago and it wasn't exactly something I'd compare to the West. 

I was born in 1967.

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, SeanF said:

I was born in 1967.

So this higher standard of living was before the us-supported military coup. 

[SeanF]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So this higher standard of living was before the us-supported military coup. 

Argentina’s living standards have improved, since 1967.  But, its growth rate has been very poor (0.4% a year, per capita, on average), and it’s done far worse than its European counterparts, over 56 years.  

The Videla/Galtieri junta was the worst, but there has been very little good government.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

The alternatives have been so bad, for so long, that people think why not?

Yes,  Very sad.  I imagine things will get worse but its an understandable development after the very poor governments there.

[Conflicting Thought]

16 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Yes,  Very sad.  I imagine things will get worse but its an understandable development after the very poor governments there.

Yes, very bad goverments and intervention by the imf and world bank spells disaster, the crisis today is in part because macri took a loan with the imf that comes with some very predatory conditions.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, maarsen said:

Read your Canadian history. Canada's most successful PM did this.

One more reason you wildlings need to get off that maple.

37 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Yes, very bad goverments and intervention by the imf and world bank spells disaster, the crisis today is in part because macri took a loan with the imf that comes with some very predatory conditions.

Argentina's problems are so numerous that I'm not sure you can really point to even a handful of things to blame. There's widespread corruption, massive political upheavals, coups, economic mismanagement, people being disappeared, etc. It's a beautiful, vibrant country, but beneath the surface there's so much that needs to change. Sadly this fuck is the exact wrong person to do it and my guess is things will just get much worse. 

[Lord of Oop North]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

Argentina’s living standards have improved, since 1967.  But, its growth rate has been very poor (0.4% a year, per capita, on average), and it’s done far worse than its European counterparts, over 56 years.  

The Videla/Galtieri junta was the worst, but there has been very little good government.

Indeed, and 50 years of emmigration of people with education and wealth to USA, Canada and Europe has and continues to impact it's prospects.

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

18 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t understand it. I mean, 150% inflation, people are really struggling and they vote for the nutjob former tv celebrity (I think?) who says he's gonna end the Central Bank AND all social services, and cabinets like Health, Education, and who knows what else. This guy is really scary and from what I've read, really unhinged. Apparently he's a really big Trump fan as well, which will surprise no one. Yikes.

ETA: I do understand that w/ the economy in shambles as it is people don't want to vote for the current economy minister, I get it. But voting for this guy is only going to make everything so much worse...

You explained yourself- Argentina has a 150% inflation rate and the other guy was the finance minister. Hard to beat even a lunatic with that in your corner. 

[williamjm]

21 hours ago, House Balstroko said:

A lot of that stuff is outright insane. Hopefully, those more extreme tendencies can be reined in.  

Some of the articles I've read pointed out that Milei's party did relatively poorly in the recent elections so they only have 38 out of 257 and 8 out of 72 seats in the two parts of congress. However, I've no idea how much power the Argentine presidency without needing congressional votes.

[Harren the Black]

 Current exit polls in the Netherlands show Geert Wilders far right PVV party win the elections, getting almost 25% of the votes. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/22/netherlands-dutch-general-election-vote-result-exit-poll-prime-minister-government-live-latest-result
It may still shift a bit, and a coalition needs to be formed, but I am sickened by the thought of so many of my countrymen voting for such a xenophobic party.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Harren the Black

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, Harren the Black said:

 Current exit polls in the Netherlands show Geert Wilders far right PVV party win the elections, getting almost 25% of the votes. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/22/netherlands-dutch-general-election-vote-result-exit-poll-prime-minister-government-live-latest-result
It may still shift a bit, and a coalition needs to be formed, but I am sickened by the thought of so many of my countrymen voting for such a xenophobic party.

I don't want to underplay the significance of the results but I'm not sure I understand why the word "win" is used.  "Win" suggests that Wilders will be PM, or at least hold office, but that is probably more unlikely than likely?

Now, the word "win" is used all over the internet in terms of this result but it wouldn't be the first time the mainline media exaggerates things sadly.  Unless I am missing something.

From my understanding, it will be very difficult for the PVV party to get into power without support from one of the next 3 largest parties and haven't they all said they don't want to work with him?  Now maybe no other alternative will emerge and one of them will buckle but while a shocking result, it may not lead to the worst result.

On the other hand, this highlights how there is a viable plan for far right parties to take power in Western countries.  Wilders did seem to mellow his tone this year.  That worked in Italy and seems to be working in France also.  On top of that, inflation and immigration are a toxic mix  It is sadly ironic that Putin's war has led to both and opened the door for people like Wilders (although, I think he has distanced himself from Putin since that war?).

Mellowing your tone will not fool a lot of people but many people are concerned about immigration (whether we like it or not) and it shouldn't be surprising that Wilders saw an opportunity to take advantage of it.

So we have far right parties in power in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia etc.  The rise of far right parties in Sweden and Finland.  The increasing popularity of Le Pen in France, AfD in Germany.  Very few countries are untouched by them (although Poland did go in the opposite direction thankfully).

It is very disappointing and I don't believe it was expected either.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Padraig

[Harren the Black]

Of course, it is by no means a certainty that Wilders will become the PM, but the fact that they have become the biggest party, by a large margin, means they have won the election at least, if not the coalition negotiations that follow.  VVD (the current largest right-wing party) and NSC (a new centrist party) have not explicitly stated they would never work with the PVV - VVD used to say that in the last few years but their new leader has opened the door to the PVV during the campaign - a strategy that gave PVV too much room to grow. And these three have the majority in the current exit poll results. I fear there is definitely a probability of a right wing coalition with the PVV, though I really hope it will not happen.

[Padraig]

I find that framing curious.

From my perspective, the whole point of an election is forming a government, so divorcing the election results from who forms the next government seems very strange to me.

I think there is a little obsession about labels everywhere, which means that nuance suffers.  Saying a party won, when it has just under 25% of the seats and no obvious partner, seems like it removes a lot of nuance.  Labels have their place but this may not be one of them.

I did see this morning that one of the other larger parties has left the door ajar about going into government with PVV, so your fears are probably well placed (sadly).  But having PVV be a junior partner in any coalition is one thing.  Supporting them to be the senior partner is government would strike me as very dangerous for the junior partner.   And for the country.

If the Dutch political parties want to keep PVV out of power, they can do it.  Whether they have the backbone to do it is another thing of course.  But they are far from powerless.

[Harren the Black]

Interesting comments about the definition of winning an election. Maybe that disconnect is also because it sometimes can take a year before any coalition is formed, and at you could say: "The PVV did very well in this election, much better than the other parties and much better than they ever did", which is I think in general what is meant here. But indeed, it could well be that 'winning the election' is not the right frame. 

Having thought about it more, and also reading some analyses: I am not sure about the best way forward. Forming a center-broad coalition without the PVV may be best on the short term, but will even further radicalise and grow their voters, creating even greater problems further on. If PVV is forced to govern, their support should reduce, because they can never fulfill all their empty promises - somehow similar as the situation in 2010-2012 when they were a gedoogpartner (supporting the right wing government at the time without being a direct part of it) - they had to take responsibility, the government collapsed within 1.5 years and the support for PVV reduced by almost half.  Or the time in 2002 when the LPF (extreme right populist party) joined the government, fell apart after infighting within 3 months, and being decimated in the next election. I don't know..
 

[Zorral]

16 hours ago, Padraig said:

So we have far right parties in power in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia etc. 

And huge demonstrations by Them in Spain, which, presumably, is included in the collective etc."  Though usually, demonstrations in Spain mean "not in power."

This election is not on any of the MSM headline stories here.  Partner is exceedingly distressed about this, as he was looking all last night and already this morning for journalism about it.

Update: A piece did go up, just now, on the NYT -- Nov. 23, 2023, 10:10 a.m. ET. 

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/23/world/europe/dutch-election-results-far-right-geert-wilders.html

About time, one might say.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Zorral

[Padraig]

5 hours ago, Harren the Black said:

But indeed, it could well be that 'winning the election' is not the right frame. 

Ultimately, you (as in Dutch people) know what it means, so that is all that matters.  An international audience may find it confusing but that's by the by.

5 hours ago, Harren the Black said:

Having thought about it more, and also reading some analyses: I am not sure about the best way forward. Forming a center-broad coalition without the PVV may be best on the short term, but will even further radicalise and grow their voters, creating even greater problems further on. If PVV is forced to govern, their support should reduce, because they can never fulfill all their empty promises - somehow similar as the situation in 2010-2012 when they were a gedoogpartner (supporting the right wing government at the time without being a direct part of it) - they had to take responsibility, the government collapsed within 1.5 years and the support for PVV reduced by almost half.  Or the time in 2002 when the LPF (extreme right populist party) joined the government, fell apart after infighting within 3 months, and being decimated in the next election. I don't know..

And I don't envy you this.  My feeling is that once a party goes into power, it normalises them.  It will be far easier for them to get into power again (even if it takes a few years before it arises again) once you accept them as a "normal" governing party.  And it will be far easier for people to justify voting for them (if a normal party is willing to work with them, why shouldn't I vote for them).

And yes there is a possibility that a party actually does moderate if it comes into power, when faced with the mundaneness of actual governing.

On the other hand, worse case scenario, you have a Hungary situation, and you never manage to get them out of power again.  Because I wouldn't assume that their support reduces.  They might be lucky and inflation drops over the next couple of years (not because of anything they did, just coincidence) and they get the credit.  Their immigration policies could be very popular.  The longer they are in power, the more damage they'll do.  They certainly could be incompetent but we have a clear example in Hungary of the opposite (or at least, where they get away with any incompetence by playing up the populist angle).

I don't believe that the Netherlands is as fragile as Hungary but this could be the first step on that path.

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

And huge demonstrations by Them in Spain, which, presumably, is included in the collective etc."  Though usually, demonstrations in Spain mean "not in power."

Yes, sadly you can go through nearly every country in Europe and say something similar.  The left are back into power in Spain after the last election, so it's not an immediate problem but admittedly, that government looks a little fragile, so they too may fall eventually.