NFL Draft 2023: Little Black Books edition

[dbunting]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

They've profited massively from the success of the film through public speaking and general marketing while the whole time it was a lie. It wouldn't surprise me if Oher is downplaying how he benefited from the story, but it does seem clear that the Tuohys are full of shit and manipulated the story for their own gain. Oher hating the movie should have been the first sign.

Confused where you are getting this from. So far every single thing has come out to confirm they were telling the truth and all of them benefitted equally.  The only thing that was wrong was that he wasn't adopted, it was a conservatorship, still haven't heard a good reason why they did that. That's the sketchy part I'd like to hear the reason of.

They had nothing to do with his NFL contracts, per reporting, so they didn't take any of his money there either.   And the "story" was all of theirs, not just Ohers, without them the story doesn't exist, just like without Oher it doesn't exist. So why wouldn't they benefit also?

If you wanna say the movie played up the lack of football skills for dramatic purposes then yeah, but name a movie based on real events that doesn't do that.

FYI, I can't wait for the season to start so I can care less about this!

[Rhom]

https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1695214383729717550?s=46&t=q3qEtSbkSoutm2uzooA_0Q
 

Shame Micah Parsons was available if the Niners just stay put that year.

[Rhom]

I don’t know why that didn’t post.

Lance to Dallas for a mid rounder.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Hey it could be worse. Who doesn't want to trade three firsts for a fourth with a chunk of dead money for four starts?

You should have tried to get Kirk from us. Sounds like that might happen anyways next year. 

Lance to Dallas probably means his chances of being a starter anywhere are close to over. I had hoped he went to a team with a shaky vet and a staff you trust to develop him, but the Cowboys aren't that. 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Rhom]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hey it could be worse. Who doesn't want to trade three firsts for a fourth with a chunk of dead money for four starts?

You should have tried to get Kirk from us. Sounds like that might happen anyways next year. 

Lance to Dallas probably means his chances of being a starter anywhere are close to over. I had hoped he went to a team with a shaky vet and a staff you trust to develop him, but the Cowboys aren't that. 

Dak doesn’t exactly have a history of being resilient for a full 17 games either though.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Dak doesn’t exactly have a history of being resilient for a full 17 games either though.  

Sure, but there again is the problem. They're win now ready, have a decent back up and don't need an expensive project. I know they're in the same division, but if I'm the Cards I trade for him right as I'm shipping Murray out (I said when he signed that deal they made a huge mistake).

[dbunting]

I don't quite understand the deal for Dallas or Lance.  Lance needs playing time and Rush is the clear back up here so when will they find time to develop him? I guess as the season goes on they can split Rush' practice reps but it seems he needs more than that especially learning a new offense.

Dallas now owes Lance 5 mill next year guaranteed. We have our own free agents who are looking for big contracts. IDK maybe this will work out but my initial reaction is that it's a waste of a pick and cap space. 

[Trebla]

44 minutes ago, dbunting said:

I don't quite understand the deal for Dallas or Lance.  Lance needs playing time and Rush is the clear back up here so when will they find time to develop him? I guess as the season goes on they can split Rush' practice reps but it seems he needs more than that especially learning a new offense.

Dallas now owes Lance 5 mill next year guaranteed. We have our own free agents who are looking for big contracts. IDK maybe this will work out but my initial reaction is that it's a waste of a pick and cap space. 

This is about Dak's upcoming contract extension. Years back, the Cowboys low-balled him so he bet on himself in the final year of his rookie contract. He went on to have probably his best season which forced Jerry to give him a huge contract that paid him like a top 5 QB. Obviously he hasn't played like that and he keeps getting injured. Dak also won the biggest sticking point of the contract fight: years. He wanted a shorter contract so he could get an even bigger bite at the apple and he got it. This year his cap hit is $27mil. 4th in the league. Next year, the final year, it balloons up to $56mil. 2nd in the league behind Deshawn Watson's ridiculous $$63mil. cap hit. So Dallas HAS to give him a new extension next year or be stuck with that huge number.

Dak is again going to be want to be paid like a top qb even if he isn't playing like one. Meanwhile, Dallas will have to pay Cee Dee Lamb and Micah Parsons as well. As Mike Florio says here, Dak has Dallas over a barrel. This trade at least gives them a tiny bit of leverage. They had planned on keeping 3 qb's with Will Grier as the 3rd. Again at the very least, Trey Lance is an upgrade over Grier. One interesting tidbit, one of the three 1st round picks the 49ers gave up to draft Lance was used to draft...Micah Parson.

[dbunting]

2 hours ago, Trebla said:

This is about Dak's upcoming contract extension. Years back, the Cowboys low-balled him so he bet on himself in the final year of his rookie contract. He went on to have probably his best season which forced Jerry to give him a huge contract that paid him like a top 5 QB. Obviously he hasn't played like that and he keeps getting injured. Dak also won the biggest sticking point of the contract fight: years. He wanted a shorter contract so he could get an even bigger bite at the apple and he got it. This year his cap hit is $27mil. 4th in the league. Next year, the final year, it balloons up to $56mil. 2nd in the league behind Deshawn Watson's ridiculous $$63mil. cap hit. So Dallas HAS to give him a new extension next year or be stuck with that huge number.

Dak is again going to be want to be paid like a top qb even if he isn't playing like one. Meanwhile, Dallas will have to pay Cee Dee Lamb and Micah Parsons as well. As Mike Florio says here, Dak has Dallas over a barrel. This trade at least gives them a tiny bit of leverage. They had planned on keeping 3 qb's with Will Grier as the 3rd. Again at the very least, Trey Lance is an upgrade over Grier. One interesting tidbit, one of the three 1st round picks the 49ers gave up to draft Lance was used to draft...Micah Parson.

So trading an asset and taking on even more salary (when Lamb and Parson need $) for someone who can't even beat out Sam Darnold is done because of Daks future contract? This assumes the miracle that Lance develops enough that Dallas lets Dak walk after next season, can't do it sooner or it's $61 million hit. I'd be ok with that except guess what, at that time Lance would need a new deal because it's his last year of his contract and now he has to get paid and we are right back where we started. 

I'm not saying what you said is wrong, I just hate the thought of it because it puts us at a QB needing a new deal after next season no matter what.  As a Cowboys fan this is just confusing, maybe in a few weeks or months I will start to see the light. Maybe McCarthy thinks he can do what Shannahan couldn't?

I prefer the theory that it was done to pick his mind on how to beat SF, but I feel like we are playing checkers and not chess.

 

[Trebla]

54 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So trading an asset and taking on even more salary (when Lamb and Parson need $) for someone who can't even beat out Sam Darnold is done because of Daks future contract? This assumes the miracle that Lance develops enough that Dallas lets Dak walk after next season, can't do it sooner or it's $61 million hit. I'd be ok with that except guess what, at that time Lance would need a new deal because it's his last year of his contract and now he has to get paid and we are right back where we started. 

 

 

The moeny they would have to pay Lance compared to Dak is probably like a 30 million a year difference. That's assuming that Dallas doesn't try to get Lance to sign a contract extension that stretches out next years cap hit. Cooper Rush is a really good backup but he is who he is: a physically limited system qb. Trey Lance is super athlete who has played actually very little football. Is he a total bust? Maybe, we will find out. I don't mind the 4th round pick. Look at who the Cowboys have picked up in the last 6 months for a 4th, two 5's and a 6th: Trey Lance, Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It's a weird move, there's no way around it. It would make sense for a team without a QB, but Dak is legit top 10 even if he won't ever be the best at the position. 

[dbunting]

15 hours ago, Trebla said:

The moeny they would have to pay Lance compared to Dak is probably like a 30 million a year difference. That's assuming that Dallas doesn't try to get Lance to sign a contract extension that stretches out next years cap hit. Cooper Rush is a really good backup but he is who he is: a physically limited system qb. Trey Lance is super athlete who has played actually very little football. Is he a total bust? Maybe, we will find out. I don't mind the 4th round pick. Look at who the Cowboys have picked up in the last 6 months for a 4th, two 5's and a 6th: Trey Lance, Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks. 

What makes you think that? If Lance develops and takes over next year (if he didn't then you wouldn't pay him) he will want to get paid. Yes he likely wouldn't get top 10 money but to say 30 mill a year less is just not reality.

BTW they also got Dak for a 4th round pick.

Edited August 27, 2023 by dbunting
Dak

[Trebla]

6 hours ago, dbunting said:

What makes you think that? If Lance develops and takes over next year (if he didn't then you wouldn't pay him) he will want to get paid. Yes he likely wouldn't get top 10 money but to say 30 mill a year less is just not reality.

BTW they also got Dak for a 4th round pick.

Nobody is saying that Lance is going to suddenly develop and take over next season. And nobody else is going to all of the sudden give him a 20-30 million dollar contract. The only way he plays this year is if BOTH Dak and Cooper Rush get hurt, or if Rush has to play and totally sucks. Every team in the league had a chance to trade for Lance. According to the 49ers, the other teams were offering a 5th or lower. Shannahan made a point to take a shot at the Cowboys by saying he didn't expect to get a 4th for Lance, as if that helps make up for the utter disaster that trade was for them. Remember if they had just kept those picks, they could have had Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons as the best pass rush duo since Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. That team won a Super Bowl with a crippled Peyton Manning.

Cooper Rush signed a 3 year, $1,670,000 this off-season. That's fairly low. You really think anyone would give Trey Lance a $10 million a year contract at this point? Dak is going to wanting at least a $40mil. a year extension. That's where I got my math and it's probably on the low side. Trey Lance is going to be competing against Cooper Rush this season and next for the #2 spot. Dallas can then see if the next two seasons if he develops.  Reading around, lot of beat writers think there's a better chance that, if Lance can develop, Dallas would trade him for draft picks. Hopefully for more than the 4th they gave up.

Like I said before, I expect Dallas to offer Lance a contract extension that stretches out his cap hit. He's only 23, he needs time to just LEARN and I hope he knows it's in his best interest to sit and watch for a couple of years instead of being pushed out to play too early like he did in SF. 

[Rhom]

I think it’s pretty simple.  Dallas had a chance to get what was a consensus early 1st round QB talent for the cost of a handful of magic beans.

It isn’t entirely crazy when you look at it that way.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

I think it’s pretty simple.  Dallas had a chance to get what was a consensus early 1st round QB talent for the cost of a handful of magic beans.

It isn’t entirely crazy when you look at it that way.

And that's why the scouts failed. He should have been seen as a late first to early third round pick and there was no justification to trade up for him. Likewise Wilson and Mac should have been assessed the same way. It was always a two QB draft. Tampa drafting Trask in the late second round was a far smarter play even if he never consistently starts for them.

[Maithanet]

The Cardinals still have Murray on the PUP list, so he cannot play in the first four weeks.  They just released Colt McCoy.  Apparently Josh Dobbs (who has only been on the team a few days) is the starter now? 

I guess they don't need to make an effort if they're just tanking anyway.  What a dumpsterfire. 

[horangi]

I can understand tanking when a team is deep into a season and realizes there is no realistic way to the playoffs.  But deciding from the get-go must be one of hell of a demoralizer for the team and the fans.  There is enough surprises in the NFL that I'd want to take my best crack at it no matter what.  It wouldnt be a total surprise if Purdy and Geno both cant replicate last years success, neither having a long track record of success.  That would leave things wide open for the Cardinals.

[Maithanet]

The Cardinals are really embarrassing right now.  The NFC is incredibly open, there are going to be at least 1-2 totally mediocre teams that get into the playoffs this year. 

And it's not even like they have a rookie qb stashed who the coaches know is actually overachieving and might be great (like Purdy last year).  They just traded for Dobbs a few days ago and all indications are that he's the starter now. 

If I were any other player on the Cardinals, I would be really pissed.  nobody wants to go through the pain and sacrifices of an NFL season if the team is already thinking about next year. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The situation is even weirder because they're tanking with a QB who was in the MVP conversation a few years ago before he got hurt and he's got a massive contract. I just looked it up and the dead money hit if they try to trade Murray is horrific and it's made worse because Idk how many teams would want him and they will certainly try to lowball the Cards.

[dbunting]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The Cardinals still have Murray on the PUP list, so he cannot play in the first four weeks.  They just released Colt McCoy.  Apparently Josh Dobbs (who has only been on the team a few days) is the starter now? 

I guess they don't need to make an effort if they're just tanking anyway.  What a dumpsterfire. 

I hope they accidentally win 5-6 games. They also have the Texans 1st rd I think so I hope they also win 5-6.  Tanking mid season when it's clear you're done is one thing but this is a horrible look.