Edmure, Bolton and the Blackwater

[The Fresh PtwP]

Edmure gets a bad rap for his battle on the fords. He bloodied Tywin's nose, almost killed the Mountain but that was only half the plan. Roose Bolton also takes Harrenhal to prevent...exactly what happened...

So there's my question is this a plot point or did Roose betray before the Blackwater? Because there should have been no way Tywin's army gets to Kings Landing. 

At a minimum, Tywin's forces should have been harried or ambushed, leaving the Tyrells to do the heavy lifting at KL.

[csuszka1948]

No, Roose didn't betray Robb before the Blackwater. Taking Harrenhal was a brilliant move from Roose, because it essentially forced Tywin out of the Riverlands after his loss at the Battle of Fords. 

[The hairy bear]

The Red Ford, where the battle of the Fords was fought, is more than 200 miles (420 km) west from Harrenhal. From there, Tywin's army went south to meet with the Tyrell army, presumably going to King's Landing through the Gold Road. They were never anywhere close to Harrenhal, so there's nothing that Roose could have realistically done to intercept them.

The strategic importance of Harrenhal is that, due to its relative proximity to King's Landing, they can march South and attack the city if their defenses are moved elsewhere. But that's of no relevance for the Battle of the Blackwater.

All that said, it's still possible that Roose had betrayed Robb before the Blackwater. At the very least, it seems clear that he had planned to betray him at the very first indication that the tide may turn against him. All of Ramsay's actions are done with the support of the Dreadfort men (who would not follow orders from a bastard arrived at the castle just a year ago without orders from Roose), and when news of the Blackwater arrive, he immediately sends Glover and Tallhart to a death trap in an action that woukdrequire some coordination with Tywin.

[James Steller]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The Red Ford, where the battle of the Fords was fought, is more than 200 miles (420 km) west from Harrenhal. From there, Tywin's army went south to meet with the Tyrell army, presumably going to King's Landing through the Gold Road. They were never anywhere close to Harrenhal, so there's nothing that Roose could have realistically done to intercept them.

The strategic importance of Harrenhal is that, due to its relative proximity to King's Landing, they can march South and attack the city if their defenses are moved elsewhere. But that's of no relevance for the Battle of the Blackwater.

All that said, it's still possible that Roose had betrayed Robb before the Blackwater. At the very least, it seems clear that he had planned to betray him at the very first indication that the tide may turn against him. All of Ramsay's actions are done with the support of the Dreadfort men (who would not follow orders from a bastard arrived at the castle just a year ago without orders from Roose), and when news of the Blackwater arrive, he immediately sends Glover and Tallhart to a death trap in an action that woukdrequire some coordination with Tywin.

Roose also fouled up the Battle of the Green Fork so that nearly half his army  was annihilated. And how convenient that the casualties were all men that were rivals, including Halys Hornwood, the man whom he was openly disputing with at the time.

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, James Steller said:

Roose also fouled up the Battle of the Green Fork so that nearly half his army  was annihilated. And how convenient that the casualties were all men that were rivals, including Halys Hornwood, the man whom he was openly disputing with at the time.

He made sure his guys were back yes but that doesnt mean he fouled up , in fact he was damn close to ending the war....tywins force was forced to mobilize fast almost caught sleeping! 

[James Steller]

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

He made sure his guys were back yes but that doesnt mean he fouled up , in fact he was damn close to ending the war....tywins force was forced to mobilize fast almost caught sleeping! 

Okay, I’ll go over it again.

Roose wasn’t supposed to go on a forced march through the night. That’s the kind of thing Robb and Cat thought Greatjon would do, and it was deemed too reckless. They picked Roose because he was a cautious man, and wouldn’t take unnecessary risks. And what does he do? He pushed his army on a march through the night, only to loudly blow horns to wake Tywin’s army up instead of ambushing them in silence. And then Roose forms his weary troops up on a hill to wait for the Lannister army to arrive (an army which has many times their heavy horse), only to abandon the high ground and charge an army which outnumbers them, has superior weaponry, and isn’t bone weary.

Nothing you can say, nothing anyone can say, even GRRM himself, will convince me that Roose didn’t deliberately tank that battle. It’s either that or he’s the most laughably pathetic commander of the series.

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

Okay, I’ll go over it again.

Roose wasn’t supposed to go on a forced march through the night. That’s the kind of thing Robb and Cat thought Greatjon would do, and it was deemed too reckless. They picked Roose because he was a cautious man, and wouldn’t take unnecessary risks. And what does he do? He pushed his army on a march through the night, only to loudly blow horns to wake Tywin’s army up instead of ambushing them in silence. And then Roose forms his weary troops up on a hill to wait for the Lannister army to arrive (an army which has many times their heavy horse), only to abandon the high ground and charge an army which outnumbers them, has superior weaponry, and isn’t bone weary.

Nothing you can say, nothing anyone can say, even GRRM himself, will convince me that Roose didn’t deliberately tank that battle. It’s either that or he’s the most laughably pathetic commander of the series.

Eh, it was a move that fits well within military history. I think he is always the type to hedge his bets and making sure other forces took the brunt of it fits into that, but nothing about it smells like open treachery.

You don’t personally lead an army you’re hoping to destroy into a head long battle unless you want to die; we saw with the later unsupported advance what that looks like. It’s possible he was hoping to turn what was supposed to be a decoy into a win for Roose Bolton. Had Robb’s gambit failed or at least been less of a complete victory he might have moved himself into a much more powerful position at the GF. It’s possible he chose a more win big or lose badly gamble because he cared less about the overall campaign than his own stake, but that’s as far as I can go. 
 

Open treachery happens in battles all the time, the Wars of the Roses were rife with it, and they are very obvious and very effective. The easiest one is your army just goes over to the other side or quits the field. Half-fighting an open medieval field battle is closer to suicidal than treachery. 

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Edmure gets a bad rap for his battle on the fords. He bloodied Tywin's nose, almost killed the Mountain but that was only half the plan. Roose Bolton also takes Harrenhal to prevent...exactly what happened...

So there's my question is this a plot point or did Roose betray before the Blackwater? Because there should have been no way Tywin's army gets to Kings Landing. 

At a minimum, Tywin's forces should have been harried or ambushed, leaving the Tyrells to do the heavy lifting at KL.

There was never a plan to lure Tywin into the west. That was just Robb and Brynden gaslighting Edmure into taking the fall for Robb's mistake with Jeyne. It is utterly ridiculous to think Tywin would give up his family and the iron throne just to prevent a little plundering.

All the fighting on the fords were just feints to lure Stannis into attacking King's Landing so Tywin could catch him unawares with his back to the city walls and the river.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

Okay, I’ll go over it again.

Roose wasn’t supposed to go on a forced march through the night. That’s the kind of thing Robb and Cat thought Greatjon would do, and it was deemed too reckless. They picked Roose because he was a cautious man, and wouldn’t take unnecessary risks. And what does he do? He pushed his army on a march through the night, only to loudly blow horns to wake Tywin’s army up instead of ambushing them in silence. And then Roose forms his weary troops up on a hill to wait for the Lannister army to arrive (an army which has many times their heavy horse), only to abandon the high ground and charge an army which outnumbers them, has superior weaponry, and isn’t bone weary.

Nothing you can say, nothing anyone can say, even GRRM himself, will convince me that Roose didn’t deliberately tank that battle. It’s either that or he’s the most laughably pathetic commander of the series.

Hes not expected to do it no..but it almost bloody works! If tywins scouts had been just a little more lax etc hed have easily won(the horns.are tywins forces waking up and forming)  you cant dismiss the fact he was very close to endning the war

As for  forming up only a fool charges  a force in marching  formation  into a battle ...thats not orderly its just a recipe for a giant melee againts a camp thats possibly got walls errected etc. No a pitched battle involves massive numbers and thus potentialy  massive losses....generaly commanders avoided them unless absolutely sure as they could alter whole wars...they sure as hell avoided sending men broken up into marching columns to just charge at a largely  unscouted camp!!

We are specifily told rooses retreat is orderly and tidy, nowhere near the massacre tywin planned due to rooses diciplined fall back.

 

As for high ground we are told theres some hills behind...nothing about their scale if they are significantly large/steep enough to make a huge difference plus theres a river right behind them making it either attack or hold ground and hope you dont get driven into the river.

Even without that  Rooses plan seems to have been to try and get his superior numbers of infantry to break  tywins before the mismatch in cavalry could come into play and if lost an orderly withdrawal .....however as we see 2 issues are that tyrions savages fight extremely well and ser gregor is fucking inhuman which with the cavalry mismatch ends the battle.

Strategicaly its also a good play too , tywins about to lose half his army to rob so if this war is riverlands + vale(expected) and north vs westerlands the   even an orderly loss will bleed both sides but only one is seemingly badlt outnumbered  and cant afford the losses

 

[James Steller]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There was never a plan to lure Tywin into the west. That was just Robb and Brynden gaslighting Edmure into taking the fall for Robb's mistake with Jeyne. It is utterly ridiculous to think Tywin would give up his family and the iron throne just to prevent a little plundering.

All the fighting on the fords were just feints to lure Stannis into attacking King's Landing so Tywin could catch him unawares with his back to the city walls and the river.

I don’t think that was the case either. I think Tywin did genuinely want to chase Robb down, since it’s a serious blow to to his rep if enemies are riding his territory with impunity. His about face to go south was improvised, helped along by Littlefinger bringing the Reach into his corner.

[James Arryn]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There was never a plan to lure Tywin into the west. That was just Robb and Brynden gaslighting Edmure into taking the fall for Robb's mistake with Jeyne. It is utterly ridiculous to think Tywin would give up his family and the iron throne just to prevent a little plundering.

All the fighting on the fords were just feints to lure Stannis into attacking King's Landing so Tywin could catch him unawares with his back to the city walls and the river.

Attacking someone’s base is about as reliable a way to get them to come as it gets. Renly does it when Stannis attacks, Robb is heading that way and pretty much bleeding out despite unchecked success in the south BECAUSE his base was taken. It’s a big deal, it’s where all the families of all the people in your army live. Ignoring that is a pretty good way to lose your army, because whether or not you’re worrying about enemy armies in your home, your army sure as hell is. 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, James Steller said:

I don’t think that was the case either. I think Tywin did genuinely want to chase Robb down, since it’s a serious blow to to his rep if enemies are riding his territory with impunity. His about face to go south was improvised, helped along by Littlefinger bringing the Reach into his corner.

Nonsense. The serious blow to his reputation is if he lost the Iron Throne for the sake of some cows and gold. In the end, Tywin did come to the rescue of his family and the throne and nobody said what a great fool he was for not chasing Robb into the west. Everybody acknowledged it as a master stroke that all but won the war for him.

And when Robb gave these orders to Edmure to "hold Riverrun", he had no idea that a Tyrell-Lannister pact was in the works, so this could not have been his thinking. ANd when he dressed Ed down over this, it was clear that this alliance had been reached so it didn't matter what kind of resistance he put up at the Stone Mill or anywhere else: Tywin was going to KL no matter what.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Attacking someone’s base is about as reliable a way to get them to come as it gets. Renly does it when Stannis attacks, Robb is heading that way and pretty much bleeding out despite unchecked success in the south BECAUSE his base was taken. It’s a big deal, it’s where all the families of all the people in your army live. Ignoring that is a pretty good way to lose your army, because whether or not you’re worrying about enemy armies in your home, your army sure as hell is. 

The west is not Tywin's base. The Iron Throne is. It is the font of unchecked power over the entire kingdom. Lose that, and you've lost the war. Why do you think everyone is trying to gain the throne? It's a game of thrones, after all, not a game of cows.

Renly did not attack Dragonstone, nor did he try to lure Stannis back there. 

Robb did not attack Casterly Rock or Lannisport. Just a few bannermen's castles. Then he was going home to liberate his seat of power: Winterfell. What Robb did do, however, is feint Tywin on the green fork.

Tywin did not lose a single man from his army after his victory on the Blackwater, and nobody whined about their homes or castles. Everyone hailed the move as a stroke of genius that had all but won the war for them.

So everything you're saying here is disproven by the text.

[Northern Sword]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The west is not Tywin's base. The Iron Throne is. It is the font of unchecked power over the entire kingdom. Lose that, and you've lost the war. Why do you think everyone is trying to gain the throne? It's a game of thrones, after all, not a game of cows.

Renly did not attack Dragonstone, nor did he try to lure Stannis back there. 

Robb did not attack Casterly Rock or Lannisport. Just a few bannermen's castles. Then he was going home to liberate his seat of power: Winterfell. What Robb did do, however, is feint Tywin on the green fork.

Tywin did not lose a single man from his army after his victory on the Blackwater, and nobody whined about their homes or castles. Everyone hailed the move as a stroke of genius that had all but won the war for them.

So everything you're saying here is disproven by the text.

Tywin's base is the West and the Rock. Not the Iron throne. Your home castle and region is always your base of power.

This is the exact reason Robb had to go back North regardless of what was happening in the Riverlands or the West, he lost his seat.

The idea that the Iron Throne at this time had power over the whole realm isn't accurate either. Certainly it held no sway over the North, Vale, or Riverlands, Stormlands and The Iron Islands. Even Dorne would not be considered cooperative, as they are actively trying to bring a dragon back for vengeance against the Lannister's.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 4/20/2023 at 2:02 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

Edmure gets a bad rap for his battle on the fords. He bloodied Tywin's nose, almost killed the Mountain but that was only half the plan. Roose Bolton also takes Harrenhal to prevent...exactly what happened...

So there's my question is this a plot point or did Roose betray before the Blackwater? Because there should have been no way Tywin's army gets to Kings Landing. 

At a minimum, Tywin's forces should have been harried or ambushed, leaving the Tyrells to do the heavy lifting at KL.

After Roose's successful feint along the Green Fork, Tywin could have pursued Roose, but he withdrew back to the Trident instead. Upon learning that Jaime had been captured and his army destroyed, Tywin retreated to Harrenhal, while continuing to raid the Riverlands with detachments commanded separately by Gregor, Amory, and the Brave Companions. Roose stepped up and seized the Trident. Now recall that four men of House Frey had been taken at the Green Fork and they were ransomed from Tywin’s host at Harrenhal. We can infer, then, that Walder sent men through Roose’s lines at the Trident and through the no-man's land around Harrenhal under safe conduct from Tywin, during which time, a channel of communications among Lannister, Frey, and Bolton was opened, well before the the Battle of the Blackwater. But I don't think Roose actively betrayed Rob until after the Battle of the Blackwater and the the capture of Winterfell by Theon. 

[Buried Treasure]

Tywin's aims were to prevent the fall of both Casterly Rock & Kings Landing. But the choice of which to defend was a non-choice as only one was ever at risk of falling. 

Robb & his small mounted army could not lay a siege or assault Lannisport / the Rock. Renly's huge army did pose a risk of capturing Kings Landing. Whilst Renly posed that threat Tywin's priority was to keep his army free to defend the city, which is why he remained at Harrenhal and only moved when Renly was too caught up with Stannis to attack KL. 

On 4/20/2023 at 5:15 PM, John Suburbs said:

There was never a plan to lure Tywin into the west. That was just Robb and Brynden gaslighting Edmure into taking the fall for Robb's mistake with Jeyne. It is utterly ridiculous to think Tywin would give up his family and the iron throne just to prevent a little plundering.

I profoundly disagree that Robb & Brynden were gaslighting, or at all misrepresenting their plans. Like everybody else, their plans did change when Stannis unexpectedly entered the war.

Plan 1 - When Robb first went west.

Setting the lure, if you like. At this point nobody expected Tywin to fall into the trap. Everyone knew that Tywin had to be ready to defend KL, giving Robb free rein to harry the West. 

Robb & Renly were not formal allies at this point, but if they had been working together I do not think they could have devised a better to plan to force Tywin into inertia whilst Robb's raids and Renly's blockade weakened the Lannister support bases.

Plan 2 - After Stannis engaged Renly

Stannis' action inadvertently aided Tywin - suddenly Renly no longer posed a threat to Kings Landing. So Tywin had a window to go west and deal with Robb's army before he had to return to the crownlands to resume the war against the Stannis-Renly victor.

This is what Robb & the Blackfish were talking about when they said they planned to lead Tywin a merry dance up the coast & then fight on their chosen ground. And it is highly unlikely they were lying because the alternative would be to engage him in a great pitched battle which would favour Tywin's larger army.

They wanted to trap Tywin on the western side of the mountains because their smaller force would have been effective at controlling the passes -- without  having to destroy Tywin's full army. Then the victor of Stannis-Renly would have been free to attack Kings Landing at leisure without relief from Tywin.

 

  

 

[astarkchoice]

28 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

After Roose's successful feint along the Green Fork, Tywin could have pursued Roose, but he withdrew back to the Trident instead. Upon learning that Jaime had been captured and his army destroyed, Tywin retreated to Harrenhal, while continuing to raid the Riverlands with detachments commanded separately by Gregor, Amory, and the Brave Companions. Roose stepped up and seized the Trident. Now recall that four men of House Frey had been taken at the Green Fork and they were ransomed from Tywin’s host at Harrenhal. We can infer, then, that Walder sent men through Roose’s lines at the Trident and through the no-man's land around Harrenhal under safe conduct from Tywin, during which time, a channel of communications among Lannister, Frey, and Bolton was opened, well before the the Battle of the Blackwater. But I don't think Roose actively betrayed Rob until after the Battle of the Blackwater and the the capture of Winterfell by Theon. 

Agreed but feel the channel was the more obvious one.....genna frey/lannister! Tywins lil sister.

[frenin]

On 4/20/2023 at 6:15 PM, John Suburbs said:

It is utterly ridiculous to think Tywin would give up his family and the iron throne just to prevent a little plundering.

Why?

Tywin's lords would want reassuring that their lands are protected.

 

On 4/21/2023 at 3:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Iron Throne is. It is the font of unchecked power over the entire kingdom. Lose that, and you've lost the war. Why do you think everyone is trying to gain the throne? It's a game of thrones, after all, not a game of cows.

The Iron Throne is only as valuable to Tywin so long as he can draw significant resources from it, since he couldn't at thte time protecting his direct source of power was the go to move.

 

On 4/20/2023 at 6:15 PM, John Suburbs said:

All the fighting on the fords were just feints to lure Stannis into attacking King's Landing so Tywin could catch him unawares with his back to the city walls and the river.

It is literally stated both Tywin and Tyrion expected Stannis to be holed up at Storm's End for a  year or so.

 

[csuszka1948]

I tended to believe that Robb and Brynden were gaslighting Edmure, but I no longer think that true.

 

Why? Because I looked at an ASOIAF timeline which showed that even after the Battle of Oxcross, Robb and the Blackfish has spent MONTHS in the West, raiding mines and attacking castles.

This wouldn't make any sense unless their goal was to lure Tywin west.

Was this their original plan, or something they conceived after Oxcross and news of Renly's death? I don't know, but I suspect the latter (otherwise they would have told it to Edmure).

[frenin]

On 4/21/2023 at 3:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

Tywin did not lose a single man from his army after his victory on the Blackwater, and nobody whined about their homes or castles. Everyone hailed the move as a stroke of genius that had all but won the war for them.

When Tywin went to join the Tyrells, he was about to have a 75k army join him and virtually end the war, no one would complain because even the dumbest one could see their woes were about to end. We have literally no idea of the situation in Tywin's camp before  the Tyrell alliance was made and Tywin found himself increasingly alone and his lands in peril.

That's why he moved to his lands.