Will Doran end up ruining Dorne?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

He will have his role into throwing Dorne into the war against Daenerys, causing many more tragedies and deaths, but he certainely won't be the only one. 

Arianne and the Sand Snakes, especially Nymeria and Tyenne, may force his hand with Arianne throwing her lot with and seducing Aegon, and the Sand Snakes acting on their vengeance in King's Landing. 

Daanerys herself will, indirectly (with the news of Quentyn's death at the hands of one of her dragons) and directly at the same time, and unwillingly have her own part in this both before and after she arrives in Westeros. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[KingAerys_II]

The Stony Dornish will join Aegon, Yoronwoods are Blackfyre royalist, the Wyl of Wyl hates the Reach and the Blackmonts and Fowler will follow

[James Arryn]

5 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

The Stony Dornish will join Aegon, Yoronwoods are Blackfyre royalist, the Wyl of Wyl hates the Reach and the Blackmonts and Fowler will follow

I know it’s true, but realistically, why would the Wyls still hate the Reach? It’d have to be something Reachers did hundreds of years ago. It’d be like if the Brits still hated the French as if….oh. Oh, ok. 

[KingAerys_II]

1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

I know it’s true, but realistically, why would the Wyls still hate the Reach? It’d have to be something Reachers did hundreds of years ago. It’d be like if the Brits still hated the French as if….oh. Oh, ok

They hate each other, have you heard about Alys Oakheart? For House Wyl will be not a problem to support the Golden Company against the Tyrells, then there are Paeke, Hightower, they were Blackfyre loyalists

[The Duck and the Field]

9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

The Stony Dornish will join Aegon, Yoronwoods are Blackfyre royalist, the Wyl of Wyl hates the Reach and the Blackmonts and Fowler will follow

Always thought it seemed likely that the whole of Dorne would get behind Aegon. That seems to be Arianne's intention anyway.  I know he's probably a Blackfyre, but to the public, he's a Targaryen, and Elia's son on top of that.

Edited June 13, 2023 by The Duck and the Field

[Angus Thermopyle]

I've thought for a while that any area of Westeros not in chaos and ruin like the Riverlands and the North will be by the end of Winds of Winter. The Stormlands are about to go to war (potentially), Oldtown is about to be attacked, sweetsunray's prediction for the Eyrie would bring chaos. Perhaps Dorne is where the greyscale plague breaks out. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Angus Thermopyle

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Angus Thermopyle said:

Perhaps Dorne is where the greyscale plague breaks out. 

If it broke out in Dorne wouldn't it not spread very far though? Dorne seems to be maybe the least densely populated of all the Seven Kingdoms, and the environment is not the humidity which best spreads Greyscale. With the Autumn storms as well, there is unlikely to be a lot of spread via trading ships.

[Angus Thermopyle]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

If it broke out in Dorne wouldn't it not spread very far though? Dorne seems to be maybe the least densely populated of all the Seven Kingdoms, and the environment is not the humidity which best spreads Greyscale. With the Autumn storms as well, there is unlikely to be a lot of spread via trading ships.

I don't know what will happen in Dorne but I do believe something will. Winter will come when everyone is least prepared. 

[KingAerys_II]

I guess Dorne will mobilize against the Others, they signed the eternal peace treaty with the first Aegon to face the threat beyond the Wall, so they will help Aegon to take the Reach, the Westerland and Riverlands, then they will move a massive army to the North.

Dorne knows about the Others thanks to the first Rhaenys, that's what I guess, if someone will destroy Dorne, that will be Cersei

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by KingAerys_II

[Tyrosh Lannister]

On 6/9/2023 at 4:41 AM, Craving Peaches said:

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Ellaria talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Ellaria points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

When word reaches him that there is an 8 foot giant Kingsguard , he will believe that Gregor Clegane is not dead and the head that the Lannisters brought him was a fake - one of the perpetrators (the worst) mentioned by Ellaria is still alive. 

This will undoubtedly worsen Martell - Lannister relations and will further make him make war on the Lannisters. 

[KingAerys_II]

8 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

When word reaches him that there is an 8 foot giant Kingsguard , he will believe that Gregor Clegane is not dead and the head that the Lannisters brought him was a fake - one of the perpetrators (the worst) mentioned by Ellaria is still alive. 

This will undoubtedly worsen Martell - Lannister relations and will further make him make war on the Lannisters. 

The skull sent to Dorne belongs to one of the dwarves, then there is the Myrcella thing Jaime wants to reveal, without Myrcella Tristan is free to marry Daenerys

[BalerionTheCat]

Doran wants revenge for Elia. He is ready to pay with his blood, but not with the blood of his people. He believes princes and kings have the responsibility of the safety of their people. But I believe this will fail. Dorne will go to ruin, because of him or not.

Edited June 18, 2023 by BalerionTheCat

[Wolf's Bane]

It won't be Doran.  It will be Arrianne who ruins Dorne and House Martell. 

[BlackLightning]

On 6/10/2023 at 1:17 PM, Curled Finger said:

Likewise, Arianne appears to be Doran's only candidate for connecting with Aegon though she's already shown herself to be impulsive and a poor judge of character and politics.

And Elia Sand (aka Lady Lance) is even worse than Arianne. I think that - at some point - Elia will do something bad/stupid and either leave Arianne to take the blame for it...or everyone will simply assume Arianne did it and she won't have any way to prove otherwise.

On 6/8/2023 at 1:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Ellaria talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Ellaria points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

Well first of all, to @Aejohn the Conqueroo's point, there is a pretty big difference between justice and revenge and neither Doran nor Oberyn understood it what it was. So, to that point, Dorne has always been doomed.

To answer your question...the moment that Dorne makes any moves or plots against Dany is the moment when the destruction of Dorne is inevitable. Because, by the time Dany comes to Westeros, she would have crushed all of her enemies (re: slavers and their sympathizers) in Essos and she will be in no mood to play games. And Dorne is probably the one region in Westeros closest to Essos.

On 6/10/2023 at 4:36 AM, SeanF said:

I think the direct line of the Martells (and the Sand Snakes) will ultimately be consumed by their quest for vengeance and Arianne’s overweening ambition.

For what it's worth, I think Arianne is way more hypercompetitive than she is overweeningly ambitious. She appears to have learned from the Oakheart and Darkstar situations so I think her jealous, hypercompetitive nature is what's really going to get her in trouble.

On 6/15/2023 at 11:47 AM, Angus Thermopyle said:

Perhaps Dorne is where the greyscale plague breaks out. 

No.

It's the Stormlands. It's a region with high humidity and high enough temperatures and it's the one region where Connington will spend the most time.

On 6/10/2023 at 1:17 PM, Curled Finger said:

Perhaps he should have sent Arianne to Mereen to seduce Dany.  That might have gone better.

[snip]

Likewise, Arianne appears to be Doran's only candidate for connecting with Aegon though she's already shown herself to be impulsive and a poor judge of character and politics.  Still, who else has Doran got but the future ruler of Dorne to entrust with this mission?  Poor old guy is really in a tough spot and because his options are so limited to B players this will not turn out well at all for Dorne.

LMAO no it would not have gone better

What he should've done is send Arianne to court at King's Landing and Oberyn to Meereen. And in sending Oberyn to Meereen, he should've sent either a small army with ships or coin to hire said army and ships.

I'm sorry but it's hard for me to feel bad for Prince Doran. If he is in such a tough spot because he is limited to B-list and C-list pieces, then he just shouldn't play the game.

But that's not true. Prince Doran's biggest problem is the fact that he is a terribly poor manager of people...not of land but of people. His overcautious nature not only isolates himself and his House (thereby creating a lot of unnecessary angst and instability within his family) but it prevents him from properly capitalizing on the "talent pool" in Dorne. His ex-wife Mellario could've been huge asset...but where is she now? Arianne and Quentyn are A-list pieces that have never been groomed/cultivated into A-list status...so they end up just being on the B- and C-list teams. The fact that Arianne and Quentyn are so ill-equipped and bumbling is 100% Doran's fault.

[BlackLightning]

 

On 6/10/2023 at 1:17 PM, Curled Finger said:

I am unclear what the consequences for Dorne with actually be.   Civil unrest leading to new management?  I can't see any of the powers that be; Lannisters, Tyrells, Stannis or Aegon invading Dorne.  What would be the point?  Thus, consequences would have to be internal or some catastrophe involving Euron, which all the coastal regions will likely suffer. 

 

Euron is a serious, universal threat. So good on you for bringing it up.

But it seems like you completely forgot about Daenerys.

[Corvo the Crow]

Whole Dorne is filled with hotheaded people, I think without a leader such as Doran they would be at eachother’s throats immediately after RR.

[Craving Peaches]

20 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

It's the Stormlands. It's a region with high humidity and high enough temperatures and it's the one region where Connington will spend the most time.

Stormlands are not very densely populated at all though, there are no cities and they seem to only have one town in total, densely populated King's Landing seems like more of a place where the disease would spread.

[BlackLightning]

44 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Stormlands are not very densely populated at all though, there are no cities and they seem to only have one town in total, densely populated King's Landing seems like more of a place where the disease would spread.

It doesn't have to be densely populated for the disease to spread

Connington is a military commander who will be around large groups of people. He already has castle servants washing his infected materials. Where are these servants going and who are they working for?

In the end, while yes, the disease will really become endemic once King's Landing comes into the picture, the Golden Company are going be super-spreaders. Wherever they will go, the disease will be there.

This is how greyscale will ravage the south. Because I think the Golden Company will come into close contact with people from the Reach.

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

 

 

Euron is a serious, universal threat. So good on you for bringing it up.

But it seems like you completely forgot about Daenerys.

Ok I will bite.  Let's suppose Dany comes to Dorne knowing she was pledged to marry a presumably dead prince.  Seems to me if Doran is still living and ruling he will be far more angry with her than she will be with him for not upholding the bargain.  Tyrion spurred Aegon on to Westeros.  This was a dirty move, but perhaps not bad advice.  If he's doing well and not hitched to Arianne and waiting for Dany this could work in Aegon's favor.  Lots of maybes I know.  I'm just not confident in any of the remaining Martell's abilities to effectively do anything substantial to Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons, Breaker of Chains, Queen of Everything...

Is Aegon fool enough to marry Arianne or Elia when he knows what Dany is?  I mean, a win at Storms End is a big deal.  Does he need Dorne when the The Reach may well be on his side anyway?  Doesn't this 1st win imply that the Stormlands are his adding to his army?  

[KingAerys_II]

13 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Ok I will bite.  Let's suppose Dany comes to Dorne knowing she was pledged to marry a presumably dead prince.  Seems to me if Doran is still living and ruling he will be far more angry with her than she will be with him for not upholding the bargain.  Tyrion spurred Aegon on to Westeros.  This was a dirty move, but perhaps not bad advice.  If he's doing well and not hitched to Arianne and waiting for Dany this could work in Aegon's favor.  Lots of maybes I know.  I'm just not confident in any of the remaining Martell's abilities to effectively do anything substantial to Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons, Breaker of Chains, Queen of Everything...

Is Aegon fool enough to marry Arianne or Elia when he knows what Dany is?  I mean, a win at Storms End is a big deal.  Does he need Dorne when the The Reach may well be on his side anyway?  Doesn't this 1st win imply that the Stormlands are his adding to his army?  

If Myrcella dies, Trystane is free to marry, and Myrcella will die, then you are right about the Stormlands, especially if Aegon names Edric new lord of Storm's End, then there are the Blackfyre loyalists as Wyl, Yronwood, Hightower, Peake, then there is the army of the Golden Company, and he has Tyrion as advisor and Bronn married a lady of the Crown lands, so the entire Dorne is not necessary.