Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust

[Toth]

I wonder how much more effective Russia would be if they stopped wasting missiles and drones against apartment blocks, hospitals and schools and used them against actual military targets for a change. Just food for thought.

[butterweedstrover]

35 minutes ago, maarsen said:

"Russian imperialism I like because it conterbalances Western imperialism" is a really silly argument. This is like saying a punch to the left side of one's head is fine if counterbalanced by one to the right side of said head.

Well first we have to agree that imperialism exists. 

I would love a world with no imperialism, but that isn’t going to happen. Many people also think because Western influence can (not always) be materially beneficial to its clients that it must not be imperialism. 

But in most cases, imperialist will use tactics both good and bad to exert control. The Romans developed waterways for Gaul and the British built railways for India but neither did it out of goodness, but to exert better control. 
 

The Soviets, in order to keep the Warsaw pact afloat, heavily subsidized a bunch of less productive economies (check out Eastern European populations after 89). Not out of the goodness of their hearts, but to maintain control. 
 

Imperialism is a game of the stick AND the carrot. Corporations think the same way in regards to their customer base.

I don’t care for material benefits as much as I value freedom, but that is a pipe dream. However look at Armenia. The reason it was able to be independent for so long is because Persia and Rome were fighting and they could play off one side against the other. 
 

A counterbalance gives third countries options and allows for a degree of pseudo-freedom in a world dominated by great powers. 
 

I also love Russia so there is also that, but I’d never want them to rule the world.

32 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

Am I really seeing Stalin apologia here ffs

Actually, anti-Khrushchev outlook. It was convenient for the Politburo to pin all the blame on the famine, etc. on Stalin but they knew what was happening and let it. 
 

Stalin who was politically independent from them, the guy they decided to throw under the bus. 
 

Point is Khrushchev wasn’t the moderate hero westerners make him out to be. And Stalin wasn’t this blanket evil force. A lot of his paranoia was justified and his goal to industrialize the USSR wasn’t a selfish goal done for his own monetary benefits (unlike Putin and his goons who raid the state coffers for their mansions in Italy).

Edited July 9, 2023 by butterweedstrover

[butterweedstrover]

12 minutes ago, Toth said:

I wonder how much more effective Russia would be if they stopped wasting missiles and drones against apartment blocks, hospitals and schools and used them against actual military targets for a change. Just food for thought.

The thing is you’d have to be believe that those missiles had no other target in the first place (or that the damage wasn’t caused by Ukrainian air defense which either fails entirely who damages the rocket without fully  destroying). 
 

I also remember the great defense system the Ukrainians had which killed two Polish farmers.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

37 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

Am I really seeing Stalin apologia here ffs

Yeah, he is never won the trebble with Manchester United.

[butterweedstrover]

Given the war against Russian culture in the west, or the attempts to brand it as Ukrainian, I'd like to remind everyone that some of the best figure skaters are from Russia. 

I know they are banned from the ranking now so their numbers aren't great, but here is Kamila Valieva from the last winter olympics. Just stunning, and only 15: 

 

Also, if that doesn't do it for you, here is a rendition of Swan Lake, Listen to it and tell me with a straight fact how unredeemable or terrible Russia is.  

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, butterweedstrover said:

That’s a long history, if you want to learn what changed, or why the capital was not Kiev. 

The prince of Rus who founded Moscow eventually went onto to dominate other Rus states, but Moscow was further from the front lines were orthodox Christians were being attacked by Catholics, it was a safer place to build a capital that wouldn’t be sacked all the time.

I’ve read a number of works on it.  Most recently The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine by Serhii Plokhy.

You should read it.

[Gaston de Foix]

38 minutes ago, butterweedstrover said:

The thing is you’d have to be believe that those missiles had no other target in the first place (or that the damage wasn’t caused by Ukrainian air defense which either fails entirely who damages the rocket without fully  destroying). 
 

I also remember the great defense system the Ukrainians had which killed two Polish farmers.

The thing is the use of terror and civilian casualties is a feature not a bug of Russia's war strategy.  Pretending otherwise is willful delusion. 

And yes, Russia is a great country.  Russian culture is wonderful, breathtaking, awesome, beautiful.  The vast majority of Russian people are decent even if they have been co-opted into an unjust war of aggression.  But all that shit was true of Nazi Germany too.  It's a total non-sequitur.  

Look to defend Russia it's not enough to argue there are some justified historic grievances from the USSR's breakup.  I'll stipulate that is the case.  

It's to defend belligerent war as a tool to resolve those differences.  And Russia was a founding member of the UN Charter that prohibited war for precisely that purpose.  Sure there's enough hypocrisy in the West to drench us all.  But two or twenty or two hundred wrongs don't make a right.  

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Like most horses, I don't give a damn about figure skatng. I don't deny the skilly/athleticism involved in it, I am just not interested in that sport. But wasn't that the Russian prodigy figure sakter the one with positive test for Trimetazidine before the Olympics?

Same thing goes with Ballet, I don't deny the skill/athleticism/grace, but you'd have to throw in a Rammsteinesque aftershow party with the ballerinas to drag me there. I'd probably need all the roofies to make it through the show, tho.

 

Anyway, none of those things have anything to do with Russia's war of aggression and its war crimes in Ukraine.

 

[butterweedstrover]

1 minute ago, Gaston de Foix said:

The thing is the use of terror and civilian casualties is a feature not a bug of Russia's war strategy.  Pretending otherwise is willful delusion.  
 

The only use for fear is systemic attacks. A misfire here or there doesn’t instill fear, but anger. 
 

Anyways, all these missiles had specific targets that I know of, and Ukraine has made a habit of putting training centers and arm factories in densely packed areas similar to Hamas. 
 

Though I don’t blame them for trying since their entire military operation is based on third party support. Civilian casualties look good for them.

1 minute ago, Gaston de Foix said:

And yes, Russia is a great country.  Russian culture is wonderful, breathtaking, awesome, beautiful.  The vast majority of Russian people are decent even if they have been co-opted into an unjust war of aggression.  But all that shit was true of Nazi Germany too.  It's a total non-sequitur.   
 

End of Nazis wasn’t the end of Germany (an ethnic state). This, if the west has its way, will be the end of Russia forever. So I want the west to fail in this regard.  

1 minute ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Look to defend Russia it's not enough to argue there are some justified historic grievances from the USSR's breakup.  I'll stipulate that is the case.  

It's to defend belligerent war as a tool to resolve those differences.  And Russia was a founding member of the UN Charter that prohibited war for precisely that purpose.  Sure there's enough hypocrisy in the West to drench us all.  But two or twenty or two hundred wrongs don't make a right.  

I mean yeah, but it’s too late now. The war started, there is no going back to the way things are. 

[karaddin]

This argument all started from Zorral saying "make Russia stop" which was interpreted to mean "make Russia stop [existing]" instead of the much more reasonable and likely "make Russia stop [this war]". 

What amazes me is that the person doing apologia for this invasion and gaslighting about the slaughter is the one making a compelling argument for the Russian state needing to end. I'm not saying that's actually my belief, but that's the conclusion that follows from your arguments.

The idea that this slaughter is justified because without it Ukrainians might choose to be closer to the west because of the cultural imperialism of letting people be happy, and letting gays exist in public. It hasn't been explicitly covered but with your fixation on the Rus ethnicity would you be concerned about the possibility of people diluting that bloodline by marrying other ethnicities?

Obviously these historic artists you point to can only exist under miserable circumstances and let's ignore the other artists who never even get a chance to exist as artists under this glorious suffering culture.

[kiko]

2 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Yeah, we are living in looney land if the argument is Moscow approved of some random shootings during a retreat so they could exterminate (or instill fear) into the population. 

Not random shooting. You said earlier the doctrine involves killing civilians. And the behavior of Muscovite soldiers doesn't really need an explicit command from Putin. It's just part of your much admired culture as Swan Lake and stupid matryoshkas. Russky Mir. Own it. All of it.

[butterweedstrover]

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Like most horses, I don't give a damn about figure skatng. I don't deny the skilly/athleticism involved in it, I am just not interested in that sport. But wasn't that the Russian prodigy figure sakter the one with positive test for Trimetazidine before the Olympics? 
 

It was from months before, meaning it didn’t affect her performance.

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Same thing goes with Ballet, I don't deny the skill/athleticism/grace, but you'd have to throw in a Rammsteinesque aftershow party with the ballerinas to drag me there. I'd probably need all the roofies to make it through the show, tho.

 

The worlds best ballet school is in Saint Petersburg. I’m going to a performance at the Met Opera on Monday, anyways you can appreciate the musical depth. 
 

Frankly I think tchaikovsky puts Mozart to shame.

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Anyway, none of those things have anything to do with Russia's war of aggression and its war crimes in Ukraine.

 

The war is being fought right now with the end of Russia in mind. The demilitarization, prosecution of political elite, and seizure of Crimea will be the end of Russia as an independent military/political power which will also mean the end of Russia as a state. 
 

Russia, like the US, isn’t an ethnic state, it’s an idea.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 minute ago, butterweedstrover said:

The war is being fought right now with the end of Russia in mind. The demilitarization, prosecution of political elite, and seizure of Crimea will be the end of Russia as an independent military/political power which will also mean the end of Russia as a state. 

Pardon.

Crimea is not Russian. It's Ukrainian. Internationally recognized borders, treatys Russia signed off in the 1990s etc.

Demilitarization is not happening, neither is in all likelihood prosecution of the elites (unless Russia hands them over voluntarily). One can hope that at least Girkin/Strelkov falls out of favour enough.

If Russia's ceases to exist in its current shape and form, then the lesson should be don't invade neighbouring countries and don't commit war crimes.

[butterweedstrover]

4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

This argument all started from Zorral saying "make Russia stop" which was interpreted to mean "make Russia stop [existing]" instead of the much more reasonable and likely "make Russia stop [this war]".  
 

The thing is Russia exists to struggle against the west. For it to stop and become a member of NATO will be its end. 
 

As for its role during peace time, it competes with western imperialism and helps balance the world order.

4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

What amazes me is that the person doing apologia for this invasion and gaslighting about the slaughter is the one making a compelling argument for the Russian state needing to end. I'm not saying that's actually my belief, but that's the conclusion that follows from your arguments. 
 

Slaughter is happening also because Ukraine kidnaps civilians from Odessa and throws them into the front with little ammo. 
 

The west scuttled the peace deal with Ukraine-Russia to keep the war going, just like they faked the Minsk agreement.

4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

The idea that this slaughter is justified because without it Ukrainians might choose to be closer to the west because of the cultural imperialism of letting people be happy, and letting gays exist in public. It hasn't been explicitly covered but with your fixation on the Rus ethnicity would you be concerned about the possibility of people diluting that bloodline by marrying other ethnicities? 
 

Ironically, the Banderites you’re using to start a war with Russia over fake nationalism hate gays and racial intermixing. 
 

Russia is big on intermixing, lots of Rus have Turk or mongol blood from the east, check out the Russian defense ministry. 
 

In the end, just like how radical islamists were used to fight communism, the west will turn on the Banderites.

4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Obviously these historic artists you point to can only exist under miserable circumstances and let's ignore the other artists who never even get a chance to exist as artists under this glorious suffering culture.

It’s not doomed to be miserable, it’s about finding meaning through hardship. 
 

As for corruption, it can still be fought, Stalin did it.

[karaddin]

You just need to be more logical, I'm telling you that your attempts to convince people are having the opposite effect. Surely pragmatism should suggest changing your approach.

Of course I'm just a degenerate liberal that you're not trying to convince anyway, maybe the kind of person you're actually trying to appeal to will swallow this bullshit.

[butterweedstrover]

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Pardon.

Crimea is not Russian. It's Ukrainian. Internationally recognized borders, treatys Russia signed off in the 1990s etc. 

Russian naval base and military was always in Crimea. The peninsula was made bark of the Ukraine SSR for logistic reasons. 
 

Now if you want to make the military aim of a violent seizure and destruction of the Black Sea fleet (and ethnic cleansing that will follow) international recognition isn’t enough because in that case you (the west) would support Kosovo being conquered by the Serbs and Taiwan by the CCP.

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Demilitarization is not happening, neither is in all likelihood prosecution of the elites (unless Russia hands them over voluntarily). One can hope that at least Girkin/Strelkov falls out of favour enough. 
 

God willing, but that is western political aims right now. Especially with the destruction of the Black Sea fleet.

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

If Russia's ceases to exist in its current shape and form, then the lesson should be don't invade neighbouring countries and don't commit war crimes.

Or, don’t trust western partners who lie about the Minsk agreement, arm far right organizations to ethnically cleanse territory, intervene in an effort to establish Ukraine neutrality, and poor arms into an enemy with the goal of destroying your country.

[James Arryn]

12 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

 

Infrastructure works as a military goal, but most of the buildings hit are either a miss shot aimed at something else or, more likely, a Ukrainian anti-missile defense system going haywire or damaging a rocket so it doesn't propel far enough and hits some random apartment. 

 

Just to be clear, it is your contention that a majority of the strikes against Ukrainian civilians have been friendly fire. That’s your actual position? Sure, both sides use propaganda and yes, the West has more motives than altruism involved here, but shit like this should let you know when the noises you are making are coming from the hand shoved up your analysis. 

[kiko]

1 hour ago, butterweedstrover said:

Well firstly Russian soldiers aren’t animals, they don’t rape and kill randomly. They are innocent boys who think they are serving their country. 

Even the prisoners who fought for Wagner, those treated well, had a high rehabilitation rate. The MOD mistreated them, but Prigozhin honored the contracts. 

Now in war rape/killings happen, but you have to believe it’s systemic or part of a political order from Moscow in order to claim Bucha was evidence of a Russian plot to kill civilians. 
 

If Russia was fighting this war to exterminate the population, things would look very different.

So are they raping and killing randomly or is it systemic? You claim it's neither one or the other but it clearly happens on a massive scale. It's something that is also not forgotten in Germany, just not mentioned so actively for obvious reasons. The Muscovite army is raping on massive scale wherever they go.

And innocent boys who rape for the country? What is wrong with you?

[butterweedstrover]

2 minutes ago, karaddin said:

You just need to be more logical, I'm telling you that your attempts to convince people are having the opposite effect. Surely pragmatism should suggest changing your approach.

Of course I'm just a degenerate liberal that you're not trying to convince anyway, maybe the kind of person you're actually trying to appeal to will swallow this bullshit.

Karaddin, how many people on this thread are there? 50, 20? 

The lot of us aren’t going to change the outcome of this war. Nothing we think matters, the powers to be will decide, we are just spectators.  
 

Actually I’m pretty liberal, in fact I think I am a liberal. But one thing with liberals is their desire to make political change, they believe discussions and arguments are only useful if they can (eventually) lead to changes in policy. I have no such hope, I just like talking about this stuff, I have no practical aims to convince this form I am right or wrong. 

Actually that gets at the heart of how Slavs and westerners see things differently. Liberals in the west look at problems and try to change the situation, and they think their opponents do the same. 

But I don’t care to achieve a change in policy, especially when I accept there is no control. The only thing we can do is find meaning in a lack of control and not tie our happiness to the possibilities of changing that outcome. 

Both the Russian and European perspective of making change and finding meaning through uncontrolled outcomes is worth understanding. 

As for how I am a liberal or why, I think in the end the focus on individualism brought about by liberals (versus conservatives who focus on people’s role in society) has benefited my mental fortitude. 
 

I only bring up liberals to say stuff happening in the west is turning Russian liberals away from the west. Russian liberals who want their country to emulate Europe exist since before Catherine. In the 90s especially they loved the ideas of free speech and political liberties. 
 

But, as I speak to them (or those I know) they are turned off by what they perceive to be the gender swaps, drag shows with children, riots against small businesses, etc. as proof the western way will lead to destruction. 
 

Not saying I agree, but they go off what they see on TV. And also some living in NY think the same.

[butterweedstrover]

19 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Just to be clear, it is your contention that a majority of the strikes against Ukrainian civilians have been friendly fire. That’s your actual position? Sure, both sides use propaganda and yes, the West has more motives than altruism involved here, but shit like this should let you know when the noises you are making are coming from the hand shoved up your analysis. 

Well they’re not in Ukraine to blow up apartment buildings filled with innocent civilians. That’s counter to their goal of avoiding civilian deaths. 
 

Infrastructure is different but that’s also a military goal.