Renly Knew about the Incest: Here's Why

[Alester Florent]

13 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think there is merit to the OP.  

I think the tell here may be Renly’s line about Stannis being so clever.  In other words, Renly figured it out, but didn’t think Stannis would have.  Until Renly saw Stannis’ letter.  If Renly truly thought it was a fable, than he would have described Stannis as fanciful or devious but not clever.

But the OP is right, it’s in Renly’s best interest for the realm to think they are all usurpers.  Because if Stannis is right, then he does have a greater legal right to the throne than Renly.  And Renly doesn’t want to give Stannis that type of leverage.

I think this is an awfully heavy construction to put on a single word. "I didn't think you were so clever. Were it only true, you'd be Robert's heir". Now, there may be words other than "clever" that express the sentiment of "you're making this up for your own benefit" but I think "clever" also serves. 

Besides which, if he is choosing his words to indicate that he knew, why? He should be trying to conceal that, not clue people in.

At any rate, I think this combined with his comment to Cat later makes it clear that he didn't know. If he did know, he wouldn't draw attention to it when talking to Cat, and speculate on whether it was true. He'd just ignore it. 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

Renly was totally, 100% aware of the Cersei/Jaime incest. Here is the evidence;

I think pretty much everyone with half-a-brain in the capital knew. The only ones who didn't know seemed to be the less political, more military types, like Ned, Robert and Selmy. Subtlety is not their strong suits.

And yes, if Olenna did not know about the Margery plot, then the whole scheme was the brainchild of a couple of lunkheads that was never going to happen anyway.

[Ran]

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Renly was quite ready to kill Dany without hesitance

Sure, but she was being actively used in a plot to usurp the throne, the sole tie to a huge army that could conceivably attack Westeros. And even before that, Viserys was attempting to raise forces. In a scenario where he controls Tommen and Myrcella, he can of course take measures against this. 

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and didn't have much reluctance to kill Stannis either.

He didn't want to, but would if he had to, because Stannis had attacked him and contested his crown. Again, if Myrcella and Tommen are under his control, less of an issue.

It's interesting that Stannis is the only person who ever bluntly states the intention of killing all of Cersei's "abominations". No one accuses Renly of having the same intention. 

20 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

In other words, Renly figured it out, but didn’t think Stannis would have.

No, the "clever" thing is that he thinks Stannis is telling a clever lie. Which he says right after, that if it were only true. 

54 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

No sign of it though. Renly and Stannis never claim the regency, and no-one suggests it to them. Even Robert chose Ned, not a Baratheon. So I have to believe the claim is not strong.

This is because of the way things fell out. But Stannis certainly believed that he should have been Hand, and in a world where the incest wasn't an issue, you know he'd expect to be Lord Protector for his nephew rather than letting Tywin or Cersei do it. Whereas Renly, as soon as he sees Ned is Lord Protector, immediately acts to shore him up and get control of the situation by pushing the Lannisters out -- he was just as happy to be the guy who backed Ned Stark in getting Cersei out of power as to be the Lord Protector himself, if it came to it.

Robert was unaware of something that everyone at court did know -- that his death was going to be followed by a power struggle between Cersei and her father on one side and Stannis and Renly on the other, over who was going to control Joffrey, and so could control the Iron Throne.. Renly was trying to do an end-run around it by finding some way to get the Lannisters out while Robert still lived. 

[Springwatch]

9 minutes ago, Ran said:

This is because of the way things fell out. But Stannis certainly believed that he should have been Hand, and in a world where the incest wasn't an issue, you know he'd expect to be Lord Protector for his nephew rather than letting Tywin or Cersei do it. Whereas Renly, as soon as he sees Ned is Lord Protector, immediately acts to shore him up and get control of the situation by pushing the Lannisters out -- he was just as happy to be the guy who backed Ned Stark in getting Cersei out of power as to be the Lord Protector himself, if it came to it.

Robert was unaware of something that everyone at court did know -- that his death was going to be followed by a power struggle between Cersei and her father on one side and Stannis and Renly on the other, over who was going to control Joffrey, and so could control the Iron Throne.. Renly was trying to do an end-run around it by finding some way to get the Lannisters out while Robert still lived. 

As ever, Stannis is unpopular and Renly is young with no track record, so probably Tywin would be considered the best candidate among the uncles. Not that it matters - they'd fight it out anyway.

It's a startling thought that the regicide was expected - Varys did, of course, and he hints a lot, but I can't imagine it being talked of. I mean, the only thing we see is Cersei telling Robert not to fight in the melee, and Lancel giving over the wineskin on request, under Renly's very eyes - Renly actually saw the 'murder', and still can do nothing about it. I think myself he wanted the Lannisters gone because they're hard to live with: greedy, power-grabbing and ruthless.

28 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

If Renly has bent the knee to Joffrey, he would have been probably kept as an 'esteemed guest' at court.

For a short while, maybe, but patience would run out. Sons and daughters can be taken as hostages, that's accepted practice, but not high lords. Cersei would have to let Renly go, or face the consequences.

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

If Cersei controls the crown, it doesn't have to be "mysterious". She can frame Renly for treason and have him executed as she did with Ned. 

Executions of high lords are nearly as troublesome as the murders. No, Cersei does much better with a tame deer than a dead one, so Renly is physically safe, she can't touch him. And yet he's afraid, which to me needs an explanation.

[Alester Florent]

2 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Executions of high lords are nearly as troublesome as the murders. No, Cersei does much better with a tame deer than a dead one, so Renly is physically safe, she can't touch him. And yet he's afraid, which to me needs an explanation.

He thinks she's killed Jon Arryn, she's killed Robert, and the Lannisters have already attempted to kill Ned. Of course he's afraid.

[SaffronLady]

This entire thread serves as a sort of monument to how people have a hard time analyzing motives even with quite detailed records. Goes on to say how difficult it is to analyze historical figures who have left perhaps only a paragraph or 2 of records in the pages of history.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

It was explicitly said that the Lannisters would never share power with the uncles, who would have a strong claim to acting as Lord Protector or regent for their nephew. Varys says as much, indicating Cersei acted to kill Robert to get him out of the way so that they could “deal” with the Baratheons.

Tywin, who does not know of the incest, and doesn’t even seem to have known what Stannis and Jon were up to, clearly imagined he’d end up going to war against the Baratheon brothers.

Renly understood this. This is why he urged Ned to seize the children and secure his place as Lord Protector. And when Ned refused, this is why he fled. Has nothing to do with the incest. Indeed, it is predicated on his believing Joffrey was legitimate, because his being Joffrey’s uncle with a place of power at court made him a rival.

The fact that Jaime and Tyrion (two of the only three main Lannisters in King’s Landing, unless you count Lancel) and Renly seemed to get along pretty well would undercut this a bit though.  

So it begs the question, if Renly’s real issue is with Cersei, what exactly has Cersei done, other than be a bitch, to make Renly think of Cersei as such a threat that he goes to the extreme plot of having her removed?

Why would Renly worry about having to be a regent to Joffrey at all unless he thought that Robert would come to a sudden end.  

Is it just Robert’s consumption of food and drink?  Or does Renly think Cersei might have Robert killed?  

The whole plot to replace Cersei makes more sense if Renly at least has a suspicion that Cersei’s children aren’t Roberts.

If Renly came to that conclusion, then I do think that he would consider his life in danger if he lost his older brother’s protection.   Which would go a long way in explaining why Renly had his own personal guard with him in King’s Landing, and knew as soon as Robert died that Cersei would make her move.

Renly’s problem in publicly admitting this, is Stannis.  Renly even acknowledges that if this were true it legitimizes Stannis claim over his own.  But Renly also knows that Highgarden isn’t going to back Stannis, there is too much bad blood between the two.  So Renly is caught in a bit of quandary.  Even if Renly had already come to the conclusion that Cersei’s children weren’t Roberts, he had to keep mum, because he knows that it would just give Stannis a legitimate claim to the throne, and Highgarden wasn’t going to back Stannis.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Springwatch]

38 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

He thinks she's killed Jon Arryn, she's killed Robert, and the Lannisters have already attempted to kill Ned.

Right. But as said, killing Renly makes things worse for the Lannisters (empowers Stannis), and mistreating Renly makes things worse (stirs up the Stormlands). And Renly is no threat at present: if he claimed the regency he'd be refused; and if he said Robert was murdered, he'd be laughed out of court because everybody knows a boar killed Robert in a hunting accident.

On the other hand, a live Renly could do a huge amount of good for the Lannisters by keeping the Stormlands quiet. He might do this for the reward of Stannis' holdings, and the death of Stannis.

ETA2

The only thing that could override all these factors is the twincest issue.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Springwatch
ETA Trimmed quote

[Alester Florent]

28 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Right. But as said, killing Renly makes things worse for the Lannisters (empowers Stannis), and mistreating Renly makes things worse (stirs up the Stormlands). And Renly is no threat at present: if he claimed the regency he'd be refused; and if he said Robert was murdered, he'd be laughed out of court because everybody knows a boar killed Robert in a hunting accident.

On the other hand, a live Renly could do a huge amount of good for the Lannisters by keeping the Stormlands quiet. He might do this for the reward of Stannis' holdings, and the death of Stannis.

If it were Tywin in charge, or Tyrion, then this is probably the way things would go. But this is Cersei we're talking about. She's spiteful and cruel, and would rather kill first and worry about how to clean up the mess later. Yes, a Renly aligned with the Lannisters would be a great asset to hem. She doesn't think like that. He's a potential threat, therefore he's a threat, therefore he's to be eliminated.

Cersei could have attempted to make an alliance with Ned. It won't necessarily be easy, but they have no history, and she could at least give it a go. That would increase her influence and make her life easier. Or at least she could pay him basic courtesies and otherwise avoid him. Instead, she goes out of her way to antagonise, insult and belittle him at every turn, making him - and eventually the whole of the North - into a sworn enemy. She's not going to give a moment's thought to trying to do anything different with Renly.

Renly has probably seen enough of Cersei to take a stab at the way she thinks and operates.

[Craving Peaches]

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

Either Renly secretly knew about the incest and blatantly pretended otherwise (which isn’t supported in the text), or he was willing to put all his nieces and nephews (who were, as far as he was concerned, his blood relatives) to death so that he could seize their inheritance for himself. 

How I imagine it going in a scenario where Renly does not die but beats Stannis is that Renly then adopts the incest story, thus meaning there is no need to kill Tommen and Myrcella (who can be kept as hostages/sent to wall/silent sisters, but Joffrey likely gets the axe), and then excludes Stannis based on religious grounds. It would be relatively easy to do so since Stannis burned the contents of Aegon's Sept, and Jaehaerys promised that the throne would always defend the Faith. There is really no need to kill Tommen when he is so young and easy to manipulate. He can just be 'looked after' by someone loyal. There is also no need to kill Myrcella as Renly inherits before her anyway (from what I can tell from the succession laws). Yeah Joffrey gets the axe but I doubt any readers are going to cry over this.

[Bael's Bastard]

Renly didn't know or even necessarily believe the accusation. What he knew/believed was that the Lannisters were usurping control over Robert's heirs and were going to dispose of Robert, his brothers, and friends in the process of accomplishing it. He was perfectly willing to strike first, take control over Robert's heirs, and keep them on the throne so long as it put him in a strong/safe position.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Bael's Bastard

[Springwatch]

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

If it were Tywin in charge, or Tyrion, then this is probably the way things would go. But this is Cersei we're talking about.

This isn't rocket science, it's pretty simple. If Cersei can see the value in a hostage (and she does), and in sparing Ned (she does), then she can see value in Renly.

Tyrion and Tywin are way overrated by the fandom, and Cersei gets underrated. Which doesn't mean I think she's a master tactician, but she's not the dumby-dumb-dumb-dumb Cersei we hear about on the forums. GRRM doesn't write like that.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

She's spiteful and cruel, and would rather kill first and worry about how to clean up the mess later.

Spiteful and cruel, yes, but I don't see the rest at all. She was incredibly, incredibly cautious about killing Robert.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Yes, a Renly aligned with the Lannisters would be a great asset to hem. She doesn't think like that. He's a potential threat, therefore he's a threat, therefore he's to be eliminated.

He's not a threat at all. Unless he knows about the twincest.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Cersei could have attempted to make an alliance with Ned. It won't necessarily be easy, but they have no history, and she could at least give it a go. That would increase her influence and make her life easier. Or at least she could pay him basic courtesies and otherwise avoid him. Instead, she goes out of her way to antagonise, insult and belittle him at every turn, making him - and eventually the whole of the North - into a sworn enemy.

Um. Probably. I suppose, but I don't really remember. I'm stuck on the seduction scene.

I'm convinced they have history though. It was almost shocking when the royal visit is discussed and nice Ned talks of the youngest child last seen 'sucking at the Lannister woman's teat'. How charmless is that? He sounds like a Lannister himself.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

She's not going to give a moment's thought to trying to do anything different with Renly.

Renly is young and handsome and witty, so I'm sure Cersei likes him by default. He knows how to flatter too, as shown by the kneeling scene in front of the wheelhouse.

If she thinks he knows her secret though, then yes, she'll destroy him.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Renly has probably seen enough of Cersei to take a stab at the way she thinks and operates.

He hasn't seen her murder anyone. Mostly what he'll have seen is Cersei's best effort at dutiful daughter and pliant wife etc. Her power has been soft power - she charms, she nags, she rages, she manipulates. None of which would bother Renly. He wouldn't expect the jump to murder unless Cersei felt cornered and desperate - as she would if the twincest could be exposed at any moment.

[Ran]

24 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

and in sparing Ned

She sends him to the Wall. Ned agreed to it because his children were hostages and in danger.

Renly? The only reason he'd do it is to survive, but suffice it to say he would never want to be in that position of being stripped of power, and if he escaped Cersei's clutches, it would be assassins and armies, not overtures to peacefully surrender himself. He would, rightfully, fight tooth and nail. As he did indeed try to do.

[Springwatch]

10 hours ago, Ran said:

She sends him to the Wall. Ned agreed to it because his children were hostages and in danger.

Maybe she should have let Renly go, but kept back Loras as the honoured but reluctant guest of the throne.

[Lee-Sensei]

On 8/21/2023 at 8:58 AM, John Suburbs said:

I think pretty much everyone with half-a-brain in the capital knew. The only ones who didn't know seemed to be the less political, more military types, like Ned, Robert and Selmy. Subtlety is not their strong suits.

And yes, if Olenna did not know about the Margery plot, then the whole scheme was the brainchild of a couple of lunkheads that was never going to happen anyway.

They didn't though. The only people that knew were Jaime and Cersei along wth Varys, Littlefinger and Pycelle. If Renly knew, why wouldn't he bring it up to Robert? It would make it much easier to get rid of the Lannsiters. Why wouldn't he mention it to Ned after Robert's death, when he wants to take Cersei's kids hostage and rule in Joffrey's name.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Lee-Sensei

[Alester Florent]

On 8/21/2023 at 9:24 PM, Springwatch said:

Tyrion and Tywin are way overrated by the fandom, and Cersei gets underrated. Which doesn't mean I think she's a master tactician, but she's not the dumby-dumb-dumb-dumb Cersei we hear about on the forums. GRRM doesn't write like that.

She doesn't come across that way in AGoT, but when we see the way she thinks in AFfC... 

On 8/21/2023 at 9:24 PM, Springwatch said:

He's not a threat at all. Unless he knows about the twincest.

He's been plotting for who knows how long to oust her and replace her with Margaery Tyrell. He's her political enemy. And we know she's planning to kill him because she tells us in so many words she was planning to do so, and regrets having to kill Robert before she could deal with Stannis and Renly. 

On 8/21/2023 at 9:24 PM, Springwatch said:

He hasn't seen her murder anyone. 

He thinks she killed Jon Arryn. Jaime tried to kill Ned in the street. That's more than enough precedent to worry anyone.

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Lee-Sensei said:

They didn't though. The only people that knew were Jaime and Cersei along wth Varys, Littlefinger and Pycelle. If Renly knew, why wouldn't he bring it up to Robert? It would make it much easier to get rid of the Lannsiters. Why wouldn't he mention it to Ned after Robert's death, when he wants to take Cersei's kids hostage and rule in Joffrey's name.

They "knew" in the sense that they were certain about it. It isn't that hard to see. 

But nobody is going to bring this to Robert without proof. All Cersei has to do is deny it, and that's the end of it -- and the accuser is left looking like a fool.

Renly wanted Ned to take the crown and set himself up as regent. He can't do that if he also denies that Joffrey is the rightful king. So going that route leads to all sorts of issues in an already complicated and dangerous time.

[Lee-Sensei]

Just now, John Suburbs said:

They "knew" in the sense that they were certain about it. It isn't that hard to see. 

But nobody is going to bring this to Robert without proof. All Cersei has to do is deny it, and that's the end of it -- and the accuser is left looking like a fool.

Renly wanted Ned to take the crown and set himself up as regent. He can't do that if he also denies that Joffrey is the rightful king. So going that route leads to all sorts of issues in an already complicated and dangerous time.

I don't think they knew at all. Brienne makes the connection easily enough. Robert knows what he, his father, his brothers, his bastards and his niece all look like. He also knows what Cersei's children look like. I've seen no evidence that this was an open secret that everyone knew. Only a handful of people were aware of it until shortly before asoiaf, when Littlefinger (according to Varys) put Stannis on to it. Stannis brought in Jon Arryn. Then Jon Arryn died, Stannis fled and Ned came to investigate and followed their trail.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 8/21/2023 at 10:16 PM, James Steller said:

At least Stannis knew that the kids were illegitimate incest products. Renly just wanted to cosplay as his older brother and play conqueror to seize power.

Well I don't have much to say here, as @Alester Florent, @Craving Peaches, and @Ran pretty much covered anything I was going to say (also am I a Renly-stan now somehow? I think I'm just a....not Renly hater, but perhaps I do like Renly, I just think he gets too much hate and people in the fandom misjudge his actions). But I do want to say something here : Stannis killed his brother with magic and was planning to kill his nephew with magic; we can't possibly be arguing he has the upperhand in...goodness when it comes to kinslaying. Also, "cosplay", really? No. He didn't want to cosplay his older brother. He probably looked up to his older brotehr, but Renly was...being ...Renly. I look up to my mom, if I parent like her, am I cosplaying? If I take a similar moral stance to her, am I cosplaying? No, I'm not. Come on. It is normal to look up to others we see as role models and act like them, dismissing that as "cosplay" is ridiculous, and shows a clear anti-Renly bias that you have. 

 

[Craving Peaches]

34 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

dismissing that as "cosplay" is ridiculous, and shows a clear anti-Renly bias that you have. 

It also ignores the part of the text where Renly clearly acknowledges Roberts flaw(s):

Quote

"Not true, Your Grace," protested a wispy young man who must have been Caswell. "What is mine is yours."

"Whenever someone said that to my brother Robert, he took them at their word," Renly said. "Do you have daughters?"

"Yes, Your Grace. Two."

"Then thank the gods that I am not Robert..."

And the fact that Renly is described as being moderate, something that would never be associated with Robert.

35 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

(also am I a Renly-stan now somehow? I think I'm just a....not Renly hater, but perhaps I do like Renly, I just think he gets too much hate and people in the fandom misjudge his actions)

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