Renly was never going to succeed as king

[James Steller]

I could make this all about how we never have any proof that Renly is a worthy candidate for kingship, that we never see him actually doing his alleged job as Master of Laws, that the most he does is be a charismatic dinner guest (I see you fuming, Peaches ). But for the sake of fairness, let’s assume that Renly did have the potential to be a good king. Hard to be worse than Robert, really, but anyway.

First, Renly will not have a good reputation in King’s Landing. He is a conqueror who first abandoned King’s Landing to the Lannisters (whom the King’s Landing people despise for the sack, Ned Stark’s unholy execution, and the whole starvation thing). But Renly would also be potentially held responsible for that starvation, and not unjustly so. He deliberately chooses to prolong the war and the suffering of the smallfolk for his own game strategy. 
But assuming all that doesn’t affect his kingship, we are still not accounting for the games being played by those around Renly. He would have to put down the armies of Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark, and Balon Greyjoy. Littlefinger has no loyalty to him, nor do Pycelle or Varys. Varys would easily be able to kill him in order to throw the realm into chaos and pave the way for fAegon. And even if Renly did somehow defeat all these people, Daenerys was going to come back to Westeros and fry the Usurper’s brother with some Dracarys action.

 

[Ran]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

But Renly would also be potentially held responsible for that starvation, and not unjustly so.

You have read ACoK, I take it, so you'll know that the Lannisters were blamed for the starvation and people in King's Landing were cheering on Renly and expecting him to fix everything. Tyrion even remarks on the incongruity of it, but the people are fickle.

And if you've read ASoS, you'll know that the people of King's Landing fall over themselves for any man wearing Tyrell livery, because they brought plenty of food that alleviated the hunger. If Renly had been alive, he would have been praised, not hated.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Ran

[Lord Varys]

What would likely undermine Renly's kingship is the way he would have dealt with Cersei, Stannis, and his nephews and nieces.

Following Robert's 'I'm the guy with the biggest army/weapon' precedent would have not only set a very bad example for Renly's own heirs ('If daddy wasn't the oldest brother why the hell should I defer to my eldest brother - especially if he is named 'Loras'!?) but also the Realm at large.

We could expect that the secessionist movements would only continue under a 'King Renly' unless he actually beat them into total submission. He may have been able to make a deal with 'King Robb' eventually ... but not with Balon Greyjoy and his heirs and likely also not the Lannisters or the Dornishmen. Renly may have been able to defeat some Lannister army and take KL but that doesn't mean Tywin is gone. Would he ever bend the knee to a 'King Renly'? Hard to imagine, if you keep in mind he was actually fine with Robb taking Jaime's head in exchange for Ned's. Renly could not force Tywin into submission by threatening to kill Cersei, her children, or Tyrion.

And Renly's succession could also be a mess simply because due to his sexual and romantic preferences he may eventually face the same problem as Cersei had with the twincest. Unless Margaery's children look like Renly people might wonder if 'the king' was the one who fathered the children. And so on and so forth.

People kind of delude themselves a bit about Renly's popularity - he was popular in KL, the Stormlands, and the Reach. But the rest of the Realm didn't seem to care about him.

[Craving Peaches]

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

(I see you fuming, Peaches ).

I am no longer peachy 

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

that we never see him actually doing his alleged job as Master of Laws,

I won't bother mentioning how Stannis is the one who runs away from his job and duty to Robert and so on and that his suggestions on the council are ridiculous from multiple angles etc. then.

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

First, Renly will not have a good reputation in King’s Landing. He is a conqueror who first abandoned King’s Landing to the Lannisters (whom the King’s Landing people despise for the sack, Ned Stark’s unholy execution, and the whole starvation thing). But Renly would also be potentially held responsible for that starvation, and not unjustly so.

I doubt this for a few reasons. Firstly, it is very easy for Renly to present himself as liberator of the city. People living there hate the Lannisters and during that riot they were calling for Renly even though he was dead (may he rest in the Seventh Heaven) at that point. Secondly, he can do exactly what the Lannisters did after the Margaery marriage and make a big show of bringing in wagons of food. With the executions of unpopular people like Cersei, his popularity amongst the people will increase. It is also worth noting that Renly was already popular amongst the common folk even before the Lannisters took charge of the City.

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

He would have to put down the armies of Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark, and Balon Greyjoy. Littlefinger has no loyalty to him, nor do Pycelle or Varys. Varys would easily be able to kill him in order to throw the realm into chaos and pave the way for fAegon. And even if Renly did somehow defeat all these people, Daenerys was going to come back to Westeros and fry the Usurper’s brother with some Dracarys action.

I do think Robb and Renly could come to an accord, especially in this scenario where Renly has taken the City (I assume Stannis is taken care of too) and he might have Sansa. Renly was going to let Robb keep his title which would allow him to save some face amongst his vassals. Tywin is screwed regardless of what happens with Robb-Renly relations, because it is not like any of them are going to ally him, he would have to fight both Robb's roughly equal in size army and Renly's army which is four times the size of his. Even if for some reason Robb and Renly cannot work things out (thought I really believe they could), Robb is not going to be able to defend the Riverlands against Renly's forces. He has too few men and the geography is against him. If Robb does not come to an agreement with Renly he is actually in a bit of a tight spot because he now has to fight Tywin, Balon, Renly and Mance later on (no Stannis coming this time I presume), and is cut off from the North so cannot get any reinforcements. It doesn't make much sense for Robb to reject an accord with Renly in this scenario, especially since Renly's terms were relatively generous, both of them hate the Lannisters, and Robb really needs to deal with the Ironborn and Tywin soon so he can deal with the Wildling invasion.

Littlefinger is a wildcard in this scenario but him and Renly seemed to get along quite well (I know you aren't convinced they are friends or anything like that, but Renly does not want to execute LF so is already better than Stannis in his mind). I also don't think LF would back a clearly losing horse in Tywin.

The Ironborn are going to be kicked out of the North sooner or later (probably sooner if Robb and Renly reach and agreement). People recognise it is impossible to hold. Yes, they probably become an issue later on under Euron, but unlike Cersei, Renly would respond much sooner since he does not have an irrational dislike of the Tyrells. Not sure how this would go since we haven't seen how it goes in the current story.

Varys could take a shot at Renly, true, but at the same time I'm not sure if Renly trusts him. He could decide to have him executed, or exiled to fill his slot on the council with one of his followers. I suspect Renly knows Pycelle is a Lannister crony so I don't think he'd keep him around. It would be easy to blame him for deliberately messing up Robert's or Jon Arryn's medical treatment.

Yes, I don't think there is much Renly can do against Daenerys due to her plot armour. He did take the threat she posed quite seriously so he could try and arrange an assassination, but whether it gets past the plot armour I don't know. The Sorrowful Men are supposedly the second best assassin organisation in the world but they failed.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Following Robert's 'I'm the guy with the biggest army/weapon' precedent would have not only set a very bad example

Just like Aegon I and Maegor Aegon II and Robert then? Not to mention multiple real life examples such as Macbeth. Yet we don't see the Realm deciding to go into civil war every generation from then on. Also, Renly can very easily set himself up as the 'true heir' by adopting the incest story but with better proof (i.e. the book of lineages and confession from Cersei obtained under interrogation), and excluding Stannis based on religion, as King Jaehaerys promised the Crown would defend the Faith and Stannis attacked the Faith.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And Renly's succession could also be a mess simply because due to his sexual and romantic preferences he may eventually face the same problem as Cersei had with the twincest.

That's silly. Plenty of real life Kings with Renly's preferences managed to father children and no one doubted their legitimacy. Especially in light of the incest accusations, Renly is going to make sure his children look like him.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

we never see him actually doing his alleged job as Master of Laws

Given how rampant corruption was, I think it's safe to say that he failed as Master of Laws.

[Ran]

Just now, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Given how rampant corruption was, I think it's safe to say that he failed as Master of Laws.

Robert literally commanded that the corrupt Commander of the City Watch stay in office. Renly had no role in it. The offices filled corruptly in the royal bureaucracy were under the purview of the Master of Coins.

There is no evidence that the role of the Master of Laws includes oversight of the City Watch, the bureaucracy, or any other agency. The evidence we have suggests the role of Master of Laws is solely advisory.

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Given how rampant corruption was, I think it's safe to say that he failed as Master of Laws.

Master of Laws is a purely advisory role though, and Robert does not want to replace corrupt figures despite advice to the contrary, so I don't think that is Renly's fault but Roberts.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Master of Laws is a purely advisory role though

But wouldn't that mean that the entire small council serves an advisory role? We know that Littlefinger and Tyrion had the practical task of providing money for the crown as Masters of Coin, so that doesn't seem to be the case. 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But wouldn't that mean that the entire small council serves an advisory role? We know that Littlefinger and Tyrion had the practical task of providing money for the crown as Masters of Coin, so that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Renly would be advising specifically on the Law as well. You are right that other people have additional roles, but it appears the Master of Laws just doesn't. I don't know why it was written that way. All they do is give the King legal advice, they can't make laws or judge or sentence people or anything. Even though in similar real-life positions there is usually another role aside from advisory (e.g. Lord Advocate - Wikipedia  - both advisor and in charge of prosecutions).

[csuszka1948]

40 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But wouldn't that mean that the entire small council serves an advisory role? We know that Littlefinger and Tyrion had the practical task of providing money for the crown as Masters of Coin, so that doesn't seem to be the case. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Renly was a lot more than that, he was a real legal bird. :-)

He figured out that Robert taking the Throne from the Targaryens has set up a precedent that whenever the ruling monarch in King's Landing is unsuited to be King - by virtue of being a tyrant, which he demonstrated by killing a Lord Paramount without a trial -, the Lord of Storm's End has the right to take the Throne from him by force.

This shows that Renly has a profound insight about the complexities of law.

Edited September 10, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

18 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Renly was a lot more than that, he was a real legal bird. :-)

He was also the king's brother, so he could probably get away with slacking on the job.

[sifth]

In short turn, he would have been a good thing, I'm sure about long term. I like Renly, he seems like a decent guy, and progressive. Also he doesn't believe in the incest, so would he murder Joff, Tommen,  Myrcella? I mean Joff I can understand, since he's pure evil, but the other two are adorable. I suppose he could send Tommen to the Night's Watch and Myrcella to the Silent Sisters, but that's pretty bad in and of itself, since he's basically selling his kind niece and nephew into servitude of the state, for the crime of being born.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, sifth said:

I mean Joff I can understand, since he's pure evil, but the other two are adorable. I suppose he could send Tommen to the Night's Watch and Myrcella to the Silent Sisters, but that's pretty bad in and of itself, since he's basically selling his kind niece and nephew into servitude of the state, for the crime of being born.

He could just keep them as hostages/wards. This has the added benefit of ensuring Tywin can't use them against him. However this might not be immediately possible depending on when Renly takes the city since Tommen is in Rosby and Myrcella in Dorne.

[Craving Peaches]

The overthrowing of Aerys by force, as well as Maegor's usurpation and Aegon I overthrowing all the other kings did not cause a complete breakdown in law and order for all generations afterwards so it seems silly to claim Renly doing the same would somehow cause society to collapse. If anything, Renly and Robert are setting a precedent more similar to the Mandate of Heaven in Imperial China, where unfit rulers can be overthrown and then a new dynasty can be established.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

6 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The overthrowing of Aerys by force, as well as Maegor's usurpation and Aegon I overthrowing all the other kings did not cause a complete breakdown in law and order for all generations afterwards so it seems silly to claim Renly doing the same would somehow cause society to collapse. If anything, Renly and Robert are setting a precedent more similar to the Mandate of Heaven in Imperial China, where unfit rulers can be overthrown and then a new dynasty can be established.

Renly wants to seize the throne by force because he thinks that he would be a better king than Stannis. But I as a reader haven't seen anything that points towards him being a good king.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Renly wants to seize the throne by force because he thinks that he would be a better king than Stannis.

I think it's worth noting that when Renly initially declares himself King, the one he is usurping and thinks he is better than is the obviously unfit Joffrey with Cersei as regent, not Stannis. Stannis does not tell Renly or anyone else what he intends for months. Yes, after Stannis shows up Renly has the chance to support him but refuses, but I don't really blame him in those circumstances. Stannis offers nothing hat Renly doesn't have already, and where was Stannis when Robert lay dying and everything was going wrong?

6 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But I as a reader haven't seen anything that points towards him being a good king.

Well for one, he is not endorsing a hostile foreign religion, nor is he sadistic, or a reaver. He does not hold grudges past the point of sense or refuse to compromise. He is personable and charismatic, which is good soft power for dealing with vassals, at the same time we see he is willing to use force/the threat of force where needed. He also seems to be relatively politically astute, he gets a good read on the situation with Robert's will after all, his coup suggestion to Ned seems sound, and he correctly predicts that most people are not going to believe Stannis' incest story due to lack of evidence.

[Hugorfonics]

It's hard to see much progress. If I may, the first plan with Lord protector El Duce Eddard Stark where Renly would serve as his "Greg" and the three Lannister boys and their mother chained up like a BMX just invites nothing but non yielding war fought on the behalf of Stannis and Tywin. With Neds and Renlys reputation falling faster then Richard IIIs.

 

But second plan, with give all functions to Tyrell as long as I get to wear that ugly hat, you know it's better then the first but again not great. Assuming he defeats Stannis what does he do against Robb? Renly made it clear he won't be anything short of an absolutist so the deal with Greyjoy is off the table as well, aside from Mance though perhaps not, Renly had I think the most difficult road out of all his contemporaries. And again if everything goes right he'll probably just get usurped by Tyrell which he insists handle the administration like Robert did Lannister. Except while Lannister is shrewd and calculating Tyrell is not 

[James Steller]

6 hours ago, Ran said:

You have read ACoK, I take it, so you'll know that the Lannisters were blamed for the starvation and people in King's Landing were cheering on Renly and expecting him to fix everything. Tyrion even remarks on the incongruity of it, but the people are fickle.

And if you've read ASoS, you'll know that the people of King's Landing fall over themselves for any man wearing Tyrell livery, because they brought plenty of food that alleviated the hunger. If Renly had been alive, he would have been praised, not hated.

Fair. But I was thinking about how the city eventually turns against their heroes when they fail to live up to their reputations (Rhaenyra). Renly would have to do a lot to cement his kingship and it would be a rough road. Who knows if people would stay loyal.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

 

I won't bother mentioning how Stannis is the one who runs away from his job and duty to Robert and so on and that his suggestions on the council are ridiculous from multiple angles etc. then.

 

Making prostitution illegal was an awful suggestion, I agree with you in that. I can work to make it be about Littlefinger and cutting off his main source of income, but frankly I think it’s because Stannis has profound issues with sex and women. It’s the biggest issue I have with him, honestly.

That said, Stannis was the one who tries to remove corruption from Robert’s administration. He presented evidence that Janos Slynt was a terrible lord commander and Robert didn’t care. Renly didn’t seem to care either. 
 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

He could just keep them as hostages/wards. This has the added benefit of ensuring Tywin can't use them against him. However this might not be immediately possible depending on when Renly takes the city since Tommen is in Rosby and Myrcella in Dorne.

Ah-ha, I forgot about that. That’s another serious hurdle for Renly. Tommen and Myrcella would exist to potentially rally support against Renly in case people don’t believe his claims of incest. And given that many people thought Stannis’ claims were made up for selfish reasons, I don’t think Renly would be any more convincing. What’s he gonna do that Stannis couldn’t? Parade the kids around Westeros for everyone to see? How many smallfolk even know what Robert looked like? He’d have the same issues Stannis has, sooner or later.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

The overthrowing of Aerys by force, as well as Maegor's usurpation and Aegon I overthrowing all the other kings did not cause a complete breakdown in law and order for all generations afterwards so it seems silly to claim Renly doing the same would somehow cause society to collapse.

Before House Targaryen, the seven dynasties had endured for thousands of years despite all the wars and competition. The Targs threw everything into chaos and couldn’t even keep their position for three hundred years without nearly disintegrating at least five times in their history as rulers.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Well for one, he is not endorsing a hostile foreign religion

That sounds like Westerosi bigotry rearing it’s ugly head again  

(to be fair I think almost all the religions in the series are equally intolerant and bigoted towards each other. I’m only in favour of the Summer Isles’ faith)

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

He does not hold grudges past the point of sense or refuse to compromise.

That’s a charitable assumption. He was quite happy to have stannis killed to get him out of the way. I know Stannis was stubborn and unwilling to compromise but at least stannis offered terms to Renly. Renly didn’t even bother, he was too busy mocking his brother or bragging about the size of his… army.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

and he correctly predicts that most people are not going to believe Stannis' incest story due to lack of evidence.

Again, why would anyone believe him if he tried to use that to justify his rule? His only grounds seem to be brute force, and who knows how long that will last if the Reach decides he isn’t quite favourable enough to them? Or if the other kingdoms manage to break enough of the Reach’s armies? Given that the Reach couldn’t even conquer the Stormlands after thousands of years, I don’t think Renly’s superiority in strength is guaranteed forever.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

The overthrowing of Aerys by force, as well as Maegor's usurpation and Aegon I overthrowing all the other kings did not cause a complete breakdown in law and order for all generations afterwards so it seems silly to claim Renly doing the same would somehow cause society to collapse. If anything, Renly and Robert are setting a precedent more similar to the Mandate of Heaven in Imperial China, where unfit rulers can be overthrown and then a new dynasty can be established.

China's also had more civil wars, than any other nation on this planet, as a result of that.

[Craving Peaches]

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Renly didn’t seem to care either. 

We have no indication either way but given Robert refused, it wasn't going anywhere and that's not really Renly's fault.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

What’s he gonna do that Stannis couldn’t?

For one, he'd have access to the Book of Lineages, secondly, he could 'extract' a confession from Cersei (or if Cersei kills herself like she suggested when Stannis was coming it makes her look guilty).

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

the seven dynasties had endured for thousands of years despite

They also had people taking throne by force though once in a while. There was that Durrandon king who killed his brother. Looking at Westerosi history Renly is not doing anything new claiming the throne by force so I really doubt that suddenly everyone would start trying to do the same given they haven't before.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

That sounds like Westerosi bigotry rearing it’s ugly head again  

(to be fair I think almost all the religions in the series are equally intolerant and bigoted towards each other. I’m only in favour of the Summer Isles’ faith)

It is a fact the religion of R'hlorr is actively hostile to all other religions though. They go around burning Septs and Weirwoods and people and Stannis is promoting this. It is awful PR for Stannis. The followers of the Seven and the Old Gods have been tolerating  each other for a while now. We don't see Septons chopping down Weirwoods or Old Gods followers burning down Septs. The only other religion that reaches this level of intolerance is the Faith of the Drowned God.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Renly didn’t even bother, he was too busy mocking his brother or bragging about the size of his… army.

Yes he did, he offered to let Stannis be Lord of Storm's End...

Quote

"...So if it is Storm's End you want, take it . . . as a brother's gift. As Robert once gave it to me, I give it to you."

Which to be honest is more generous than what Stannis offers him since he offers Stannis something he doesn't have already.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

He was quite happy to have stannis killed to get him out of the way

After Stannis attacked him.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

but at least stannis offered terms to Renly

That gave Renly nothing, because Renly is already legally the heir as brothers come before daughters when it comes to the Throne, which you'd think Stannis would know since he knows about the Dance and its consequences.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Again, why would anyone believe him if he tried to use that to justify his rule?

Because it is backed up with force, appeal to Religion and the fact that Renly is likeable and charismatic unlike Stannis.

15 minutes ago, sifth said:

China's also had more civil wars, than any other nation on this planet, as a result of that.

True.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Craving Peaches