Israel - Hamas War V

[Ran]

12 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I don't remember anyone coming close to being "100%" behind Palestinian "resistance."

By resistance I just mean resistance as a concept, not carte blanche to the means of resistance. If you believe Palestine is illegally occupied and the Palestinians have a right to resist it, it seems to me you are absolutely behind the concept of resisting.

Are people here more like ... 55% in favor of Palestinian resistance, kind of like, "sort of maybe a little bit"? 

12 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

what's the best case outcome for this kind of warfare?

Hamas and other militants out of power and demilitarized, an interim government perhaps supported by a coalition of states involved in the fight against ISIS ( and/or neighboring Arab states), demilitarization, rebuilding of Gaza, elections, normalization of the border (including by sea) ... I still don't know why Gaza can't be a Palestinian state on its own, I've got to ask some expert, but to me it should be on the table.

But regardless, the Gaza strip is a very small place. The blockade is something that came into being to prevent the militarization of the place when Israel withdrew, and need not be restored if other means are found.a

I just don't see a better future for Gaza so long as Hamas controls it, and I think there are people in Gaza who realize this.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Ran

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

I just don't understand the cognitive dissonance of the people who are 100% behind resistance to Israel by Palestinians and then the pretending that Palestinians could never resist their own local, homegrown oppressors.

I think you're very much overestimating how Hamas is viewed by the populace. Hamas is not particularly seen as some brutal oppressor in Gaza. Hamas has done a very good job of making sure virtually everyone views the poverty in Gaza as Israel's fault. (Which to be fair isn't very hard, as it is mostly Israel's fault). There are no real organizations in Gaza proper that oppose hamas to any degree thanks to Israel discouraging any of them.

Another point is that it's hard to really think gazans think badly of hamas when one of the reasons Israel got caught so off guard was because Israel thought hamas had changed their focus to economy.

3 hours ago, Ran said:

 

But I'm not talking about a revolt. Are Gazans pressing local Hamas officials to release supplies from Hamas's stockpile? Are people agitating and asking Hamas to end the war? I hope they are, just as people in Israel are urging the government to end the war.

I would like you to stop for a moment and consider the absurdity of what you're asking.

1 million people have relocated from their homes to a whole other area. They have no electricity. They have limited communication. Hamas officials are in hiding or are in active war situations. There are bombings going on every minute. Most people are spending what time they have trying to gather food and water and figure our what of their family has survived.

What do you picture this agitation to look like? Are you expecting protests? Contacting the local ombudsman? 

To me this feels like a very out of touch attitude. It feels quite a bit like victim blaming as well. And more to the point it would be absolutely ineffective. Israel isn't going to stop the attacks because hamas stops shooting rockets at this point, they're not going to stop the attacks if the hostages get released. The only way they would stop is if every hamas member surrendered right now.

And Israel isn't offering that as an option, and hamas isn't going to take that no matter how much internal pressure there is.

So please stop making the suggestion.

 

[Ran]

12 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

So please stop making the suggestion.

 

No.

In Sarajevo, there were multiple protests during the siege. People were able to speak out, and did, at the cost of their lives in some cases, shot by snipers, brutalized, disappeared. But they did it. 

I see no reason to believe the people of Gaza are just wild radicals or fearless insurgents. The polling I linked shows otherwise.

They don't want this war. So, again, it's nonsense to pretend that Hamas is immune to internal pressure from its own people, and I find it rather chilling that people think otherwise.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Ran

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

30 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

1 million people have relocated from their homes to a whole other area. They have no electricity. They have limited communication. Hamas officials are in hiding or are in active war situations. There are bombings going on every minute. Most people are spending what time they have trying to gather food and water and figure our what of their family has survived.

I tend to think @Ran is right philosophically, and it's important to factor in he comes from a community that's directly had to do what he's calling for. I had to speed read the thread to catch up, but someone suggested it would be easy. Couldn't be further from the truth. However, calling for something that's hard isn't necessarily wrong. I isolated this part of your comment to highlight how the hard can be achievable. One million people relocating isn't easy if you gave them a year. Doing it in days is impressive. Understanding that the majority of them are children and elderly, that still would leave way more people who were able to fight than active members of Hamas. The latter is the problem and I'm pretty confident if Palestinians who hate them teamed up with Israelis they could throw them into the sea and be done with them. After that the political situation would be messy for a while, but within a decade I think both Israel and a new Palestinian state could find some measure of harmony that would benefit almost everyone. 

[Kalbear]

27 minutes ago, Ran said:

No.

In Sarajevo, there were multiple protests during the siege. People were able to speak out, and did, at the cost of their lives in some cases, shot by snipers, brutalized, disappeared. But they did it. 

When?

Did it happen two weeks into the siege? Did it happen while Sarajevo was under direct bombardment two weeks into the siege? Resistance can happen but it absolutely takes time in that area. 

27 minutes ago, Ran said:

I see no reason to believe the people of Gaza are just wild radicals or fearless insurgents. The polling I linked shows otherwise.

They don't want this war. So, again, it's nonsense to pretend that Hamas is immune to internal pressure from its own people, and I find it rather chilling that people think otherwise.

I am not saying that. I'm saying that right now that isn't going to happen and the thought of it is ridiculous. If there's a ceasefire? Sure. Maybe. 

But at the start of an active war zone while people are literally running for their lives? While hamas is under direct attack?

I also just question the efficacy. Under what conditions is Israel going to stop attacking? What would hamas need to do to make Israel stop? You and I both know the answer here.

[Fragile Bird]

I see that there’s been a major worsening in the relationship between Israel and the UN since Guterres’ comments, Israel banning UN representatives from visiting the country. Just out of curiousity, I wanted to see how badly Portugal has suffered from terrorist attacks in the past, and I was astonished to see that Portugal has never suffered a terrorist attack at the hands of Islamic extremists. The last terror attack, and only terror attack it seems, came in 1983 from 5 19-21 year old Armenians who wanted to take over the Turkish embassy to draw attention to Turkish denials of the Armenian genocide. They blew themselves up after taking the Ambassador’s wife and son hostage, when the son escaped and a police officer tried to sneak into the home where the Armenians barricaded themselves.

I wonder how much the fact that Guterres never had to face a hostage event or terrorist bombing while a politician and PM of Portugal shaped his viewpoint. Not an unfair question, I think. The guy has no personal (and visceral) experience of the kind most European leaders have.

Also interesting to me is the fact there hasn’t been a major terrorist attack in Europe in what, 5 years? Haven’t analysts surmised that various groups decided they were only harming their causes by killing 50 or 100 or 130 innocent civilians at a time? Maybe Hamas decided that made going into Israel and killing civilians easier because, I’m guessing, attitudes in Europe have eased in that time?

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I tend to think @Ran is right philosophically, and it's important to factor in he comes from a community that's directly had to do what he's calling for. I had to speed read the thread to catch up, but someone suggested it would be easy. Couldn't be further from the truth. However, calling for something that's hard isn't necessarily wrong. I isolated this part of your comment to highlight how the hard can be achievable. One million people relocating isn't easy if you gave them a year. Doing it in days is impressive. Understanding that the majority of them are children and elderly, that still would leave way more people who were able to fight than active members of Hamas. The latter is the problem and I'm pretty confident if Palestinians who hate them teamed up with Israelis they could throw them into the sea and be done with them. After that the political situation would be messy for a while, but within a decade I think both Israel and a new Palestinian state could find some measure of harmony that would benefit almost everyone. 

That's an eventual goal. That isn't something that is going to happen today. Ran's suggestion is not a thing going forward for future peace and some semblance of a better life - it is suggesting right now that Palestinians stop dodging bombs, scrounging for food and water and start protesting against hamas, and believing that this will have more pressure than getting bombed over and over.

Also I'll note that this requires Israel to do this, and Israel has shown no desire to do this either. As long as Israel continues settling the west bank no other political power in Palestine is going to be able to work with them. If Israel wants that sort of thing they will also have to change significantly - something that so far is not happening.

[Ran]

Siege of Sarajevo started April 5th, same time as some 50-100k people marched in protest. Shelling of Sarajevo began April 6th. Rally outside the Republic Assembly Hall was the 22nd.

So, yes, people were protesting 2 weeks in.

I wonder at the idea that Hamas is all hidden away and that there's no civil authority in Gaza. How do people think Gaza functions? It has civil services, it has police, it has firefighters, it has ambulance services, it has administrators. Some of these are in contact with Hamas, who seem to be maintaining road blocks and guard posts here and there. Hamas members are in touch with family members. Lots of people can communicate with them, one way or another.

But again, I have said more than once that I'm not calling for revolution. I mean, it'd be nice, if it got rid of Hamas. But I'm saying that those who hope the IDF will pull back from an invasion should also hope that Hamas may give in to internal pressure to try and find some solution to the conflict rather than just tallying up the dead of both sides.

The idea that Hamas faces no internal pressure, or should face no internal pressure(?), is nonsensical.

[Zorral]

7 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Funny (in a sad way) that even the Daily Express seems to care more about innocent Palestinians than the Israeli government

It doesn't care about the hostages either, the voters' families believe.  One of our friends there put this up, with photos, on FB.

https://www.facebook.com/nili.belkind/posts/pfbid038GMZrTX6DYP6d3kC2JvLL6aPLHwEDKeeVGsSR8FRTnU9KQnWPzaCWpVz8mgeHU6Tl?

https://www.facebook.com/nili.belkind/posts/pfbid0i8HMmUiXx1if6RK7Sh6g5Ki8nzFgxMnh6LAbod5k8j7q4uDeS7fFkzYrKEqCSt73l?

Edited October 25, 2023 by Zorral

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

It doesn't care about the hostages either, the voters' families believe.  One of our friends there put this up, with photos, on FB.

https://www.facebook.com/nili.belkind/posts/pfbid038GMZrTX6DYP6d3kC2JvLL6aPLHwEDKeeVGsSR8FRTnU9KQnWPzaCWpVz8mgeHU6Tl?comment_id=654473380154642&notif_id=1698215983098158&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif

https://www.facebook.com/nili.belkind/posts/pfbid0i8HMmUiXx1if6RK7Sh6g5Ki8nzFgxMnh6LAbod5k8j7q4uDeS7fFkzYrKEqCSt73l?notif_id=1698186447660656&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif

This has been my impression for some time now, but I was told repeatedly I was wrong. 

[Zorral]

7 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I believe that he answered that before: they should all be rising up against Hamas. Just like the people of Afghanistan should all be rising up against the Taliban. Or the people of any totalitarian or terrorist state should be rising up against them. Easy. 

You mean, like, o say, the Cubans who rose up to defeat the Revolutionary Army when it entered Havana?  O wait, those Revolution non-supporters ran away to the USA instead.  Of course, an enormous numbers of Cubans did support that Revolution.

Of course, that Revolution is over.  As is that government.  And now the Cubans are entirely immiserated and are focused on day-to-day survival.  So they aren't rising up now either, but, you know, leaving.  In droves.

[Varysblackfyre321]

25 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

This has been my impression for some time now, but I was told repeatedly I was wrong. 

I apologize for my dismissive comments towards you.I was trying to promote caution because often times there’s a lot of misinformation pursuant to these conflicts so it’s best to keep one’s bias in mind, but looking back I feel I wasn’t taking your ideas on Israeli lack of care of hostages seriously enough.

[Kalbear]

28 minutes ago, Ran said:

Siege of Sarajevo started April 5th, same time as some 50-100k people marched in protest. Shelling of Sarajevo began April 6th. Rally outside the Republic Assembly Hall was the 22nd.

So, yes, people were protesting 2 weeks in.

This is more than a bit disingenuous; the protests were occurring significantly before that and were instrumental in stopping a coup attempt. Also important to note that the protests were in favor of the existing government, not in opposition to it. 

If that's the criteria you're using then Palestinians have already done this and have done so for several years. They've met that criteria. Congrats?

28 minutes ago, Ran said:

I wonder at the idea that Hamas is all hidden away and that there's no civil authority in Gaza. How do people think Gaza functions? It has civil services, it has police, it has firefighters, it has ambulance services, it has administrators. Some of these are in contact with Hamas, who seem to be maintaining road blocks and guard posts here and there. Hamas members are in touch with family members. Lots of people can communicate with them, one way or another.

It had those things. Most of it is not actively being targeted by Israel bombs. It seems to me that a good way to get killed is to hang around known hamas officials.

28 minutes ago, Ran said:

The idea that Hamas faces no internal pressure, or should face no internal pressure(?), is nonsensical.

I think they do face internal pressure. I also think that harping on that as a major solution to this or using it as a response to Israel dropping bombs is callous and ineffective. Both Israel and the US are not wanting a cease fire at this point and hamas isn't going to surrender - even if Israel was offering to take one. So...why bring it up?

What value is gazans demonstrating resistance to hamas to you? Why is this more important than israel demonstrating a cessation of bombing or stopping settlement in the west Bank? If gazans don't demonstrate in a way you find legitimate will that justify their deaths?

[Altherion]

45 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I wonder how much the fact that Guterres never had to face a hostage event or terrorist bombing while a politician and PM of Portugal shaped his viewpoint.

I don't think it's that so much as he was trying to argue for a ceasefire and managed to more or less sweep the fact that the attack on October 7th was extraordinary under the rug. Here is the full set of comments. He does start by unequivocally condemning the unprecedented attacks for all of one sentence... and then spends the rest of the rather long speech equivocating and listing Palestinian grievances. If his goal was to infuriate the Israelis, those comments are definitely the way to go. If not, he's not a very good diplomat.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

59 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

That's an eventual goal. That isn't something that is going to happen today. Ran's suggestion is not a thing going forward for future peace and some semblance of a better life - it is suggesting right now that Palestinians stop dodging bombs, scrounging for food and water and start protesting against hamas, and believing that this will have more pressure than getting bombed over and over.

Just because a goal can not be achieved today doesn't mean you shouldn't forgo planning for it. It will take a long time to be rid of Hamas, however the planning to do so needs to begin now.

Quote

Also I'll note that this requires Israel to do this, and Israel has shown no desire to do this either. As long as Israel continues settling the west bank no other political power in Palestine is going to be able to work with them. If Israel wants that sort of thing they will also have to change significantly - something that so far is not happening.

This is entirely fair. The Israeli government has not done enough on a number of levels and the WB remains a giant problem. The latter is why I've repeatedly said the illegal settlements should be given to Palestinians as a sign of good faith, free of charge. 

[Kalbear]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Just because a goal can not be achieved today doesn't mean you shouldn't forgo planning for it. It will take a long time to be rid of Hamas, however the planning to do so needs to begin now.

...okay? But I don't see how this means it's a justified response to "what is going to stop the bombing". You're asking someone who is repeatedly getting punched in the face to start thinking about how they can not be in that situation in the future while getting punched in the face. And you're putting the onus of change on the person getting punched.

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

This is entirely fair. The Israeli government has not done enough on a number of levels and the WB remains a giant problem. The latter is why I've repeatedly said the illegal settlements should be given to Palestinians as a sign of good faith, free of charge. 

So @Ran should then be calling for israelis to rise up, protest heavily, take up arms against their government or refuse to fight for israel...right? 

[Daeron the Daring]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

Not so radicalized as all that:

Being in support or in radical support of something are different. The supporters of Hamas are radical, and it's Hamas' absolute priority to marginalize it's political opposition.

There are things I support, and there are things I would (maybe) die for.

Everybody excercises different levels of importance, and it comes naturally that gazans have much more important things to worry about than who they are represented. And on top of that, it's not like they have any reason to believe cooperation with Israel has all that many benefits. 

Sure, it's important to note that Hamas are not only authoritarian, but opressors too to many. In light of that, of course the majority would like a change, but that doesn't mean they tie their (current and past) situation to Hamas, and not Israel. Even if they do, I'd say very disproportionately.

[Zorral]

36 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Israeli government has not done enough on a number of levels and the WB remains a giant problem.

We have noticed the Israeli people/voters have been putting a great deal of pressure on Bibi's cohort corrupt government for a very long time concerning these issues and so many others, yet they haven't been able to unseat him/Them.  Why then are the immiserated, far less autonomous, equipped, etc. Palestinian women and children supposed to have unseated Hamas, and are blamed and berated for not doing so? 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Zorral

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Palestinian women and children supposed to have unseated Hamas, and are blamed and berated for not doing so? 

I would disagree with anyone who would blame or berate them, too!

7 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Sure, it's important to note that Hamas are not only authoritarian, but opressors too to many.

This is part of why I say that I don't think things will ever materially improve for Gazans, and the cause of peace will not advance, if Hamas remains in power.

[fionwe1987]

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

I would disagree with anyone who would blame or berate them, too!

You've put yourself adjacent to this camp, though. 

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

This is part of why I say that I don't think things will ever materially improve for Gazans, and the cause of peace will not advance, if Hamas remains in power.

Right, but it doesn't follow that it is the responsibility of Gazans, while dodging missiles, to get rid of Hamas, too. 

A few threads ago, we had someone post an old protest video from Tel Aviv which was claimed to be a post-October 7 protest, and someone rightly pointed out the absurdity of expecting 500000 people marching on the streets soon after a terrorist attack.

Now switch terrorist attack to a bombing campaign that has already seen 8000+ bombs dropped. 

The notion of Hamas being internally thrown off during this campaign is nonsensical.

If that is what Israel had wanted, they could have halted their bombing campaign and ground invasion while they figured out what they wanted and communicated that to the people in Gaza.

But an immediate, overwhelming response is what was presented as the "only choice". That this response prevents Hamas from facing internal pressure is not on the Gazans people, surely?