Israel - Hamas War VII

[Craving Peaches]

The First Minister of Scotland reports his parents-in-law have left Gaza through the Rafah crossing, according to the BBC.

[Larry of the Lawn]

14 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

.

Obama ordered the CIA to publish the number of civilians killed in drone strikes, and they say that number was 310 by 2021. At least 13,000 people were killed, but according to the US they were combatants. When civilians get killed, the witnesses proclaim it loud and clear. When combatants get killed, ISIS and others don’t confirm the numbers, so I think the CIA numbers are likely fairly accurate.

 Independent assessments put the number at three times that for civilians deaths on the low end and 7 times higher on the high end.  Most of these strikes have been in areas inaccessible to third party observers.  

This idea that civilians deaths are loudly and clearly proclaimed by witnesses doesn't do shit when the "witnesses" are dead too.

To the CIA anyone with a Y chromosome that's hit puberty is an "enemy combatant" unless proven otherwise.  No fucking way I'm taking their numbers at face value.  

The best case scenario (lowest number) for civilians deaths by US drone strike is probably between 7-10% of all reported deaths.

 

[Ran]

Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has given a speech that is his first public remark on the conflict since it started. Opinion online seems like it's mostly indicating that Hezbollah is not invested in getting involved, in particular making a point of the fact that the October 7th attack was planned and executed by Hamas entirely in secret without informing them of their intentions (IIRC, most intelligence agencies seem to think this is not true, and that Hamas believed Hezbollah was prepared to immediately launch an offensive in support of their attack.)

The usual dire warnings if Israel or the US goes after Hezbollah or Iran, but basically says they want no real part in the fight without exactly saying it.

It's been reported that prior to this speech, the US had sent a fairly stern note telling Iran to stay out of the conflict... with, allegedly, a bunch of photos of IRGC commanders and big-wigs, and maps of IRGC training bases (some of which are used to train proxy terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah), a clear warning that the US was prepared to target all of them. Would not be surprised if Nasrallah had planned a much more belligerent speech but the US warning got Iran on the horn telling him to pull back. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Ran

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

You go to these because it makes you feel slightly less helpless and makes people feel less alone. I have been told by a refugee from Ukraine that they are thankful that some Austrians show up. 

I mean I'm a doomer and don't believe that stuff like Fridays for Future will do anything but giving the kids hope that not all adults are against them can't hurt.

Sure, it shows support and allows people to feel better about themselves, but in the past protests could actually move the needle sometimes. I feel like that aspect is largely gone. 

[Craving Peaches]

There are reports that a medical convoy (composed of people going to Egypt for treatment) leaving al-Shifa hospital was hit by an Israeli strike in front of the hospital. Israel says they are investigating...

[Kalbear]

7 hours ago, Ran said:

Reporting saying that Israel opposed the notion was directly rejected by Netanyahu, who said he would consider them. Secretary of State Blinken is back in Israel and it's top of the agenda, in fact.

Now that the encirclement of Gaza City is complete, it feels like about the right moment for it.

Per the AP Netanyahu is rejecting it unless it includes the release of hostages, so I guess that's not gonna happen.

Quote

After meeting Blinken, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel “refuses a temporary cease-fire that doesn’t include a return of our hostages,” referring to some 240 people Hamas abducted during its attack. He said Israel was pressing ahead with its military offensive with “all of its power.”

 

[Altherion]

The Israelis have to get something for the temporary ceasefire to save face. As it stands, military, it only benefits Hamas and politically it would look like when the Americans say "Jump!", the Israelis say "How high?"

They will do it if Biden really pushes, but it would go much easier if they could have something in return (maybe not all the hostages, but some of them).

[Craving Peaches]

Continued refusal for any sort of humanitarian pause(s) will, I think, really start to strain relations between Israel and everyone else. I understand why they might not want to make concessions without hostages released, but the conditions they have created currently are making an environment where the hostages have an increased risk of death, due to bombing and lack of essentials. Plus, what if someone gets desperate and threatens to kill the hostages unless supplies are let through? 

If some sort of aid doesn't get through soon, the number of dead will increase significantly.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Craving Peaches]

BBC has this to say on differences between ceasefire and humanitarian pauses.

Quote

While formal ceasefires are usually longer-term arrangements that allow parties to engage in dialogue, humanitarian pauses can last as little as a few hours.

[Craving Peaches]

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

BBC has this to say on differences between ceasefire and humanitarian pauses.

However BBC headline is in my opinion a bit misleading. It says:

'Israel Rejects Ceasefire Unless Hostages Freed after Blinken Meeting', when actually they rejected any 'humanitarian pauses' as well. So unless a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause are the same thing, which the BBC implied they were not prior in the feed, the headline is inaccurate. They also talk about a 'temporary ceasefire', which doesn't help. If temporary ceasefire is a humanitarian pause, then a humanitarian pause is still a ceasefire, so the distinction breaks down.

[Ran]

18 minutes ago, Altherion said:

(maybe not all the hostages, but some of them)

Yeah, it's been 10 days, I think, since they have voluntarily released any hostages (Israel liberated one themselves more recently). 

Speaking of hostages, reports of US Reaper drones circling over Gaza apparently fit with anonymous officials saying that they're using them to look for hostages. Interestingly, the flights have focused on southern Gaza, so they must think the hostages are mostly being held down there.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

 

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

The Israelis have to get something for the temporary ceasefire to save face. As it stands, military, it only benefits Hamas and politically it would look like when the Americans say "Jump!", the Israelis say "How high?"

I strongly disagree. The temporary ceasefire or humanitarian pause gives Israelis a chance to actually show that they do care about the civilians and contrast their behaviors with Hamas, which appears to not. This isn't giving anything worthwhile to Hamas - it is giving help to Palestinian civilians. There is no way to eradicate Hamas via military alone, which means that you cannot only look at things for purely military benefit. 

And it isn't like the Americans are the only ones calling for a stop. I believe at this point every single ally of Israel is asking for a humanitarian pause at least (the only one I'm not sure of is Germany). 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

The Israelis have to get something for the temporary ceasefire to save face. As it stands, military, it only benefits Hamas and politically it would look like when the Americans say "Jump!", the Israelis say "How high?"

They will do it if Biden really pushes, but it would go much easier if they could have something in return (maybe not all the hostages, but some of them).

Hostage families were blocking roads and demanding no ceasefire without releasing the hostages.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Continued refusal for any sort of humanitarian pause(s) will, I think, really start to strain relations between Israel and everyone else. I understand why they might not want to make concessions without hostages released, but the conditions they have created currently are making an environment where the hostages have an increased risk of death, due to bombing and lack of essentials. Plus, what if someone gets desperate and threatens to kill the hostages unless supplies are let through? 

If some sort of aid doesn't get through soon, the number of dead will increase significantly.

The hostages are with Hamas, where all the essentials are being hoarded from Gazans. Just as with Gazans, if hostages are not getting essentials it is by choice of Hamas, not a lack.

[Craving Peaches]

13 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Just as with Gazans, if hostages are not getting essentials it is by choice of Hamas, not a lack.

It is also a choice Israel made to not allow essential supplies in to start with. This is undeniable. Hamas may withhold supplies from civilians, but that does not change the fact that Israel made the initial decision to cut off supplies from getting in. Israel contributed to the lack.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[kissdbyfire]

Not all Israelis are against pauses/ceasefires or even an “all for all” swap if that means getting their loved ones back. 
 

TEL AVIV — Across the street from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was telling the nation in a speech to prepare for a long and hard war in the Gaza Strip, the chanting was loud, relentless and urgent.

At a demonstration near the ministry’s imposing tower Saturday, two people with megaphones repeated “Bring them home now!” for at least 20 minutes. A hundreds-strong crowd echoed, “Now!”

As Israel intensifies its ground operation against Hamas and bombards Gaza from the air, it is simultaneously working to defend those actions to a world outraged by a spiraling humanitarian crisis. But perhaps the most acute pressure on Netanyahu comes from the families of the 240 Israelis still being held hostage.

Their imprisonment since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 is one factor fueling the Israeli anger against the country’s embattled leader. In addition to blaming Netanyahu for failing to protect Israelis from the assault, many think he has not been sufficiently proactive, sympathetic or communicative with families of the captives. A growing number also disapprove of prioritizing a military campaign in Gaza over the hostages’ safe return.

[…]

Most Israelis want to see Hamas destroyed to ensure it never carries out another massacre — even if that requires a military operation killing thousands of Palestinians. That’s according to Israeli polling that backs up interviews conducted by NBC News journalists on the ground.

But people’s priorities appear to be changing to favor liberating the hostages, even if that means a prisoner swap with Palestinian detainees or a pause in Israel’s military aggression.

In the week after the attack, 65% of Israelis supported an “extensive” ground operation, according to a poll by the newspaper Maariv. But another poll Thursday found that 49% favor waiting, which the newspaper attributed to the growing support for freeing the hostages.

[…]
 

The vast majority of Israeli Jews, 87%, have confidence in the IDF, according to a poll last week by the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank. Another poll the institute released Tuesday found that only 7% of Jews trusted Netanyahu above the militar

 

[Ran]

I don't know where this idea that hostages are lacking essentials comes from. If they do, it's because Hamas is withholding it from them, not because Hamas doesn't have them. They have supplies for months of siege laid in their tunnels, which would include food and water.

[Bael's Bastard]

4 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It is also a choice Israel made to not allow essential supplies in to start with. This is undeniable. Hamas may withhold supplies from civilians, but that does not change the fact that Israel made the initial decision to cut off supplies from getting in. Israel contributed to the lack.

By all accounts Hamas has months of food, water, fuel, and medicine that they have stolen and hoarded that entered Gaza as aid for Gazans. That is undeniable and has nothing to do with Israel.

 

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Speaking of hostages, reports of US Reaper drones circling over Gaza apparently fit with anonymous officials saying that they're using them to look for hostages. Interestingly, the flights have focused on southern Gaza, so they must think the hostages are mostly being held down there.

The US has confirmed these reports:

 

Quote

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder confirmed on Friday that the US is flying drones over Gaza.

“In support of hostage recovery efforts, the U.S. is conducting unarmed UAV flights over Gaza, as well as providing advice and assistance to support our Israeli partner as they work on their hostage recovery efforts,” he said. “These UAV flights began after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.”

...

US officials insisted that the intelligence gathered by the drones and shared with Israel is limited to hostage recovery efforts and is not so-called “targeting intelligence” — information used to conduct lethal strikes against Hamas leaders and positions.