Israel - Hamas War XII

[Mudguard]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The US will do something very meaningful - they'll elect Trump. 

I'm actually worried that Biden has lost the Arab and Muslim vote in the US and won't be able to get them back.  Lot of the younger generation also are a lot more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinian civilians, and right now, the US is actively supporting the butchery going on there.  If they stay home and don't vote for Biden, he's in real trouble.  He barely won the first time.  The vote in a lot of states were very close.

But it's a tricky thing, because being labeled as antisemitic would also hurt Biden.

[kissdbyfire]

Interesting bits here on whether the US can control Netanyahu and how certain convos have a very different tone now. I still don't think it's enough, especially when the talk is of several more weeks, even if Netanyahu's government was talking about "a few more months". 

 

[Zorral]

U.S. plans visa ban on Israeli settlers involved in West Bank violence

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-hostages-update-palestine/#link-ODG45VBNNRETXHUKRH3CHZGCNQ

State official says Israel told Blinken of plan to reduce civilian casualties

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-hostages-update-palestine/#link-OQCGT3ZVZNAGTKNNOYQT2DXO2E

Aid is trickling in, but Gaza still grows hungrier -- begging becomes norm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/gaza-hunger-food-aid-unwra/

 

[Mudguard]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

No, they wouldn't. Israel benefits from us aid but isn't dependent on it. Israel also supplies major important components of us military equipment that cannot easily be replaced. Israel doesn't need the us, especially not to take care of Hamas. 

They rely heavily on JDAM kits from the US to convert all their dumb bombs into precision guided ones.  If we stopped providing the JDAM kits, they would have to change their bombing strategy, or be OK with essentially using a carpet bombing strategy, which I can't see them doing.  There would be no way to argue that they were following the laws of war at that point.

The US also supplies the missiles used in the Iron Dome system.  Tons of the equipment they use are from the US.

If the military aid got turned off, Israel's national security would be immediately jeopardized.  They are certainly not self sufficient, or even close to it.

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I'm actually worried that Biden has lost the Arab and Muslim vote in the US and won't be able to get them back.  Lot of the younger generation also are a lot more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinian civilians, and right now, the US is actively supporting the butchery going on there.  If they stay home and don't vote for Biden, he's in real trouble.  He barely won the first time.  The vote in a lot of states were very close.

But it's a tricky thing, because being labeled as antisemitic would also hurt Biden.

But young voters know that if they don't vote, a racist islamophobe antisemitic deranged con man will get a 2nd shot at destroying democracy in the US. Right? I do get your point though, it is tricky. 

On a side note, the US may not have that much leverage to change Netanyahu's mind on anything irt weaponry and etc. But they *could*, for instance, not stand in the way of the UN imposing sanctions on Israel. The US doesn't even have to vote for anything, just don't veto it. 

[Mudguard]

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But young voters know that if they don't vote, a racist islamophobe antisemitic deranged con man will get a 2nd shot at destroying democracy in the US. Right? I do get your point though, it is tricky. 

On a side note, the US may not have that much leverage to change Netanyahu's mind on anything irt weaponry and etc. But they *could*, for instance, not stand in the way of the UN imposing sanctions on Israel. The US doesn't even have to vote for anything, just don't veto it. 

Young voters tend to have the least motivation for coming out to vote, and typically have the worst voter turnout.  Last presidential election, around 50% of those between 18-24 turned out to vote.  So a lot of young people will care enough to vote, but a lot are also pretty apathetic about the process.

[Kalbear]

10 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

They rely heavily on JDAM kits from the US to convert all their dumb bombs into precision guided ones.  If we stopped providing the JDAM kits, they would have to change their bombing strategy, or be OK with essentially using a carpet bombing strategy, which I can't see them doing.  There would be no way to argue that they were following the laws of war at that point.

The US also supplies the missiles used in the Iron Dome system.  Tons of the equipment they use are from the US.

If the military aid got turned off, Israel's national security would be immediately jeopardized.  They are certainly not self sufficient, or even close to it.

Eventually they'd be hurt by a loss of JDAMs. But it'd take a while, and Israel has enough technical know-how to make JDAMS. Also, Iron Dome doesn't use Patriots - they use Tamirs, which are made by Israel. The funding has been supplied by the US, but the actual items are all Israeli. In any case, anything that Israel doesn't make isn't because they can't - it's because the US supplies it. Similarly, the US would be completely without the advanced reactive armor they use on most of their infantry vehicles and tanks without Israel. 

You're right that it is a somewhat reasonable threat - it would degrade Israeli security. But Israel would almost certainly just tell the US to pound sand and do what they wanted to anyway, and point out (probably rightfully) that any Israeli deaths are now on US hands. It would make Israel spend more money on defense and change what they make locally but it wouldn't really change much else. 

Also, just FYI: US aid is 1% of the Israeli GDP, and that aid is basically giving Israel money to buy weapons from the US. Israel has worked pretty hard to become significantly more self-sufficient. 

Mostly it's just not going to happen. The US is not going to stop sending Israel aid for a variety of reasons. Hell, we didn't stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. You think we're going to stop sending anything to Israel? Pfft. 

[Mudguard]

6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Eventually they'd be hurt by a loss of JDAMs. But it'd take a while, and Israel has enough technical know-how to make JDAMS. Also, Iron Dome doesn't use Patriots - they use Tamirs, which are made by Israel. The funding has been supplied by the US, but the actual items are all Israeli. In any case, anything that Israel doesn't make isn't because they can't - it's because the US supplies it. Similarly, the US would be completely without the advanced reactive armor they use on most of their infantry vehicles and tanks without Israel. 

You're right that it is a somewhat reasonable threat - it would degrade Israeli security. But Israel would almost certainly just tell the US to pound sand and do what they wanted to anyway, and point out (probably rightfully) that any Israeli deaths are now on US hands. It would make Israel spend more money on defense and change what they make locally but it wouldn't really change much else. 

Also, just FYI: US aid is 1% of the Israeli GDP, and that aid is basically giving Israel money to buy weapons from the US. Israel has worked pretty hard to become significantly more self-sufficient. 

Mostly it's just not going to happen. The US is not going to stop sending Israel aid for a variety of reasons. Hell, we didn't stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. You think we're going to stop sending anything to Israel? Pfft. 

Lot of the components for the Tamir missiles are made in the US by Raytheon and RTX.  From your wiki article:

Quote

In July 2014 it was announced that Raytheon would be the major U.S. partner in co-production of major components for the Iron Dome's Tamir intercepting missile. The U.S. firm will supply components through various subcontractors.[53] Rafael and Raytheon had teamed to offer the Iron Dome launcher and Tamir interceptor, known as SkyHunter in the U.S., to the U.S. Army as part of its Indirect Fires Protection Capability (IFPC) system, but Dynetics was instead chosen offering a launcher based on the Multi-Mission Launcher firing the AIM-9X Sidewinder.[54]

From another site:

Quote

While originally developed within Israel, the United States began contributing aid to the Iron Dome development program in 2011. In March 2014, Israel signed a co-production agreement with the United States, allowing U.S. manufacture of system components and increased access to Iron Dome’s technology. Roughly 75% of the Tamir interceptor’s components are manufactured in the United States.17

As of 2016, around 55% of the system’s components were manufactured in the United States.18 In August 2020, Rafael and Raytheon formed a joint venture to produce full Iron Dome interceptors in the United States.19

I agree that it's extremely unlikely that the military aid would actually just stop, so there's actually not much point in speculating about the consequences of that happening, but if the US put conditions on receipt of the aid, they could potentially delay delivery until Israel demonstrates some compliance to the terms.  I think the US has enough leverage to force change in Israel's approach, but so far, they haven't even tried and may not have any interest in doing so.  Could just be lip service to pretend to care.  But without at least conditioning the receipt of weapons with meaningful protections, the US is actively supporting what's going on in Gaza.  Maybe the Biden administration is OK with that.

 

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Lot of the components for the Tamir missiles are made in the US by Raytheon and RTX.  From your wiki article:

From another site:

Right - but again, these are Israeli missiles and they can be built in Israel. The US builds them because they are more efficient at it and they also want the same tech, but Israel has the capability to do so right now and is in fact doing so, though not at the same scale. If Israel needed to they could ramp that up. 

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I agree that it's extremely unlikely that the military aid would actually just stop, so there's actually not much point in speculating about the consequences of that happening, but if the US put conditions on receipt of the aid, they could potentially delay delivery until Israel demonstrates some compliance to the terms.  I think the US has enough leverage to force change in Israel's approach, but so far, they haven't even tried and may not have any interest in doing so.  Could just be lip service to pretend to care.  But without at least conditioning the receipt of weapons with meaningful protections, the US is actively supporting what's going on in Gaza.  Maybe the Biden administration is OK with that.

I don't think that the US has that leverage and both Israel and the US knows it. If the US says 'or else' all they'll do is look impotent and piss off a whole lot of people who support Israel. The US has used its leverage and soft power to negotiate for more aid, more pauses, the hostage negotiation and the like. That is probably the extent of their ability to do anything. 

The US is supporting what happens in Gaza, honestly. A whole lot of people are fine with it. They just don't want to support it too much. Biden is very much in favor of Israel and has been so for a very long time, and the only reason that he has to show some antagonism towards it and show that the US is doing something is because his view of Israel is not in alignment with a lot of the democratic party. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

12/1/23

Its believed theres potentially 137 more to save if they have still survived, no telling yet how many havent made it.

According to this article they have NOT been accorded humane conditions whatsoever.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/middleeast/israeli-hostages-released-accounts-hamas-intl-hnk

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by DireWolfSpirit

[Bael's Bastard]

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

So no one broke any ceasefires/pauses as far as I'm aware. Right? They had a deal, deliver more hostages and the pause will be extended, otherwise the war will resume - as in, the bombing campaign will resume. Correct?

I ask because I thought we were talking about the "here and now", this current conflict and not whatever happened 3 or 12 or 45 or however many years ago. 

Since in the past both sides broke  ceasefires it becomes a chicken or egg conundrum of who broke the most ceasefires. 

For what it's worth, both options are possible. Either making the debate about all of the time span since the Big Bang or about this current conflict. But making it about the former when it's convenient or the latter when it's more in support of a certain argument makes the whole exercise confusing. My 2p. 

 

Nah, Hamas definitely broke the cease fire with rockets and another terror attack, and brought it to a definite end with its failure to provide a list of more hostages to released to extend the cease fire. Which leaves one to wonder whether they lack living hostages (despite having kidnapped more than 130 who haven't been released), or just decided not to even try to extend the cease fire.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Bael's Bastard

[kissdbyfire]

 

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Nah, Hamas definitely broke the cease fire with rockets and another terror attack, and brought it to a definite end with its failure to provide a list of more hostages to released to extend the cease fire. Which leaves one to wonder whether they lack living hostages (despite having kidnapped more than 130 who haven't been released), or just decided not to even try to extend the cease fire.

This is a very weird take; the general reporting has been that Hamas refuses to trade women who are 45 and under for Palestinian kids and women because Israeli women under 45 are reservists and thus considered to be part of the military. Israel is trying to get them to do just that. 

It doesn't appear to be at all that they lack hostages, only that they want more for the ones they have.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It doesn't appear to be at all that they lack hostages, only that they want more for the ones they have.

Is there any accurate reporting on the number of hostages they still have, ones held by other groups in Gaza and those that are likely dead? Without that it's really hard to tell how many people Hamas really has and many suspect they're just stalling because they don't know themselves. 

[Craving Peaches]

Someone has reportedly set themselves on fire outside of the Israeli consulate in the USA, supposedly in protest, according to Reuters.

Protester self-immolates outside Israeli consulate in Atlanta | Reuters

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is there any accurate reporting on the number of hostages they still have, ones held by other groups in Gaza and those that are likely dead? Without that it's really hard to tell how many people Hamas really has and many suspect they're just stalling because they don't know themselves. 

I don't know of any independent reporting. That said, Israeli and US negotiators appear to be on the same page with respect to knowing more people are alive and in a fairly large amount, so while you may not have seen proof of life on the news that doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. And we do know that a number of hostages have been taken by other groups or are not around and that got reported out - so if there were scads of hostages not alive any more I think that we'd hear about that.

And as I said before - Hamas is well-aware of the value of the hostages. They are one of the only things that Hamas has that Israel actually cares about and will do something about that doesn't involve bombing the shit out of things. In the past Hamas has gone to great lengths to protect the hostages both from being rescued and from being harmed. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I don't know of any independent reporting. That said, Israeli and US negotiators appear to be on the same page with respect to knowing more people are alive and in a fairly large amount, so while you may not have seen proof of life on the news that doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. And we do know that a number of hostages have been taken by other groups or are not around and that got reported out - so if there were scads of hostages not alive any more I think that we'd hear about that.

Why, because Hamas would report it? Like you said, they know the value of the hostages even if they don't give a shit about them as people. The other group(s) though, I'm not so sure. 

[Kalbear]

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why, because Hamas would report it? Like you said, they know the value of the hostages even if they don't give a shit about them as people. The other group(s) though, I'm not so sure. 

No, because Israel (especially the hard right folks) would report it. Netanyahu would LOVE to not have to give any more shits about those hostages and get back to the bombing. Hamas wouldn't want to reveal that the hostages are dead, of course. But if Israel even suspected that most of them were dead and that there wasn't a value in negotiating further? Hoo boy, we'd hear countless leaks about it.

The main problems currently appear to be that Hamas values the hostages it has more than Israel is willing to give up. There's not any real evidence that they are not alive, however. We also know this reasonably from other hostage reports, telling us about other people who they interacted with that have not been released. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

59 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

No, because Israel (especially the hard right folks) would report it. Netanyahu would LOVE to not have to give any more shits about those hostages and get back to the bombing. Hamas wouldn't want to reveal that the hostages are dead, of course. But if Israel even suspected that most of them were dead and that there wasn't a value in negotiating further? Hoo boy, we'd hear countless leaks about it.

You're partially wrong here. Again, it's extremely important to get the hostages back, even if it's just their bodies. But yeah, after that he's a regular bombs away LeMay. 

Quote

The main problems currently appear to be that Hamas values the hostages it has more than Israel is willing to give up. There's not any real evidence that they are not alive, however. We also know this reasonably from other hostage reports, telling us about other people who they interacted with that have not been released. 

We've also seen reporting that Hamas can't account for a lot of the hostages. Who knows what's accurate is the point. Hopefully most of them are alive and relatively well, but Hamas isn't acting like that, otherwise the exchanges would keep happening because their primary goal is probably extending the ceasefire if they can.

[mormont]

10 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I don't know of any independent reporting.

I don’t know how there could conceivably be any on this topic, since I believe independent reporters are not permitted by the IDF to enter Gaza.