US Politics: Ballot Mainetenance

[TrackerNeil]

24 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I hope that's the case. But I think one of the lessons that the GOP learned from the Hillary/Benghazi nonsense was that talking about smoke loudly and often did effectively create a vague sense that there was smoke and probably fire.

Hillary Clinton is in some ways a special case, I think, and here I'm going to reveal my (unpopular) conviction that most of the dislike she received is because Americans don't much care for ambitious women. Clinton was popular enough between her various campaigns, and in 2013 she was even a meme! However, every time she ran for a promotion her favorables tanked, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Joe Biden, not being a woman, gets much more of a pass from Americans, I think. So the smoke-creation tactic may not work as well against him.

Also, never forget that Biden's not running against an unknown Republican; he's (probably) running against Donald Trump, who was never popular and is now less so. Given the magnitude of that choice, Republicans better create a lot of goddamn smoke.

Edited December 14, 2023 by TrackerNeil

[Phylum of Alexandria]

30 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Hillary Clinton is in some ways a special case, I think, and here I'm going to reveal my (unpopular) conviction that most of the dislike she received is because Americans don't much care for ambitious women. Clinton was popular enough between her various campaigns, and in 2013 she was even a meme! However, every time she ran for a promotion her favorables tanked, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Joe Biden, not being a woman, gets much more of a pass from Americans, I think. So the smoke-creation tactic may not work as well against him.

Also, never forget that Biden's not running against an unknown Republican; he's (probably) running against Donald Trump, who was never popular and is now less so. Given the magnitude of that choice, Republicans better create a lot of goddamn smoke.

That makes sense, but I still have my worries. Trump benefits when people believe that everyone is just as sleazy as he is. That thinking either justifies people leaning his way, or making others simply retract and not vote at all, because "they're all the same." 

I hate to say it, but we need to turn on the Trump megaphone to show the cynical public how uniquely immoral, chaotic, and exhausting he is. 

[Zorral]

WaPo Banner headline --

BREAKING: House passes $886 billion defense policy bill after the legislation was stripped of most GOP culture war demands

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

17 minutes ago, Zorral said:

WaPo Banner headline --

BREAKING: House passes $886 billion defense policy bill after the legislation was stripped of most GOP culture war demands

Did this get Ukraine funding?

[Kalbear]

19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did this get Ukraine funding?

No, that is separate and is still blocked by Republicans demanding border shutdown.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did this get Ukraine funding?

Sorta

As for Ukraine

Quote

Funding for a separate $105 billion national security package that would provide more assistance to Israel and Ukraine continues to be a point of contention in Congress, with Senate Republicans insisting that more foreign aid be paired with major border security policy changes. While there have been talks to try to find consensus, no bipartisan deal has been reached.

 

 

The defense authorization bill would extend the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through the end of 2026 and authorize $300 million for the program in the current fiscal year and the next one. The program provides funding for the federal government to pay industry to produce weapons and security assistance to send to Ukraine, rather than drawing directly from current US stockpiles of weapons.

High or lowlights

Quote

Support for service members and their families

The package contains several measures to improve service members’ wages and benefits in hopes of aiding in recruitment and retention.

It would provide a 5.2% boost in service member basic pay and authorize a monthly bonus for junior enlisted members. The bill would also adjust the Basic Allowance for Housing calculation to boost reimbursement for junior enlisted service members so they could better afford rising rents. And it would expand the Basic Needs Allowance to help low-income service members with families.

The bill would also authorize $38 million over the budget request for new family housing and $356 million over the budget request to renovate and build new barracks.

To help military spouses, it would expand their reimbursements for relicensing or business costs and help those working for the federal government keep their jobs by allowing them to telework when service members transfer locations.

And the legislation would reduce child care expenses for military families and authorize $153 million over the budget request for the construction of new child care centers.

Plus, it would authorize the Department of Defense to fund – and Armed Services members to participate in – clinical trials using psychedelic substances and cannabis to treat post-traumatic stress and traumatic brain injuries.

‘Ending wokeness in the military’

The package would prohibit funding for the teaching, training or promotion of critical race theory in the military, including at service academies and Department of Defense schools, according to the House summary. And it would prohibit the display of any unapproved flags, such as the LGBTQ pride flag, at military installations.

It would also put in place a hiring freeze on diversity, equity and inclusion positions until the US Government Accountability Office completes an investigation of the Pentagon’s DEI programs. Plus, the bill would cut and cap the base pay of DEI staffers at $70,000 a year.

The package includes a Parents Bill of Rights, which would give parents of children in Department of Defense schools the right to review curriculum, books and instructional materials, meet with teachers and provide consent before schools conduct medical exams or screenings of students.

In addition, the legislation reiterates that no funds may be spent on drag shows, Drag Queen Story Hours or similar events.

 

And since it's a GOP bill.

Quote

Help service members who did not get the Covid-19 vaccine

The legislation would require the defense secretary to inform the 8,000 service members who were discharged for not receiving the Covid-19 vaccine of the process they can follow to be reinstated.

It would also treat the lapse in service as a “career intermission” so future promotions are not affected, and it would require the Defense Department to grant requests to correct the personnel files of those discharged so they can receive full retirement benefits.

 

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

That makes sense, but I still have my worries. Trump benefits when people believe that everyone is just as sleazy as he is. That thinking either justifies people leaning his way, or making others simply retract and not vote at all, because "they're all the same." 

I hate to say it, but we need to turn on the Trump megaphone to show the cynical public how uniquely immoral, chaotic, and exhausting he is. 

I think that's fair, and Donald Trump wins when his enemies fail to unite against him. He turns pluralities into winning coalitions, and the stupid Electoral College makes that a viable strategy.

That said, he's a really, really unpopular guy, and once he goes on trial next year, I think Americans are going to get another  vivid reminder of the constant swirl of corruption and melodrama that surrounds him.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

3 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

That said, he's a really, really unpopular guy, and once he goes on trial next year, I think Americans are going to get another  vivid reminder of the constant swirl of corruption and melodrama that surrounds him.

I lean that way as well, but the stakes are so high and the margin of error so small, given our electoral setup. It's hard not to be worried. But I agree we shouldn't panic at this point.

[Fragile Bird]

Is a person too cynical to wonder how many of the 8,000 discharged soldiers died of Covid in the meantime?

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I lean that way as well, but the stakes are so high and the margin of error so small, given our electoral setup. It's hard not to be worried. But I agree we shouldn't panic at this point.

Modern elections really are different from when I was first voting. (That would have been 1987, for those counting.) Then, you were usually choosing between two people who were both fairly respectable, one of whom you probably agreed with more than the other, or at least disliked less. Now, you're choosing between a fairly boring and unexciting Democrat and someone who thinks democracy is a bore. There is no you-must-be-this-decent-to-be-president, any more; given the proper political circumstances, Americans would put Scott Baio in the Oval Office.

I think the last normal political year was 1999. Seriously, since 2000 politics has gone south.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, TrackerNeil said:

That said, he's a really, really unpopular guy, and once he goes on trial next year, I think Americans are going to get another  vivid reminder of the constant swirl of corruption and melodrama that surrounds him.

I think this is probably a false hope. Trump is for better or worse a very known commodity. Shocking allegations have been made repeatedly about him. It's possible people have a short memory; another hypothesis is that they simply do not care that much about these things. Or, rather, the ones who care have made up their minds long ago, and we aren't going to get anything particularly new to paint him with that will sway anyone.

Joe Biden, on the other hand - that's quite different, as his response to Israel has shown. He still has a floor to hit. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

8 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's possible people have a short memory; another hypothesis is that they simply do not care that much about these things.

Certainly possible, though perhaps it depends on what we mean by "these things." It's one reason I mentioned Trump being exhausting and chaotic rather than dangerous. Maybe these people don't care about politics enough to really sense the danger to their way of life, but they do get fed up with Trump's antics when he's in the spotlight. I mean, that's a pretty depressing factor to determine a victory, and doesn't bode well for our long term health as a society, but at this point I'll take what I can get.

My guess is that a chunk of this disaffected populace will lean back to Biden when the race has properly begin, and Trump is suddenly dominating the media once again. Will that chunk be big enough for Biden to win? I have no idea, but I damn well hope so.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Is a person too cynical to wonder how many of the 8,000 discharged soldiers died of Covid in the meantime?

A number that I've seen earlier for Covid deaths in the military was 0.03% of cases, and this was during the first, deadliest wave, before the vaccine became available. So if all 8000 got sick and none of them had any previous immunity, statistically it was 2 of them.

I also heard of someone who used the Covid vaccine as an excuse to get out his term early, and then got vaccinated afterwards.

[Kalbear]

16 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Maybe these people don't care about politics enough to really sense the danger to their way of life, but they do get fed up with Trump's antics when he's in the spotlight.

Citation needed that Trump is not 'in the spotlight'. 

16 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

My guess is that a chunk of this disaffected populace will lean back to Biden when the race has properly begin, and Trump is suddenly dominating the media once again. Will that chunk be big enough for Biden to win? I have no idea, but I damn well hope so.

I think it's a very false hope. Trump has been dominating media for a while now and continues to do so regularly. The race should absolutely be considered to have been started for a while - after all, the primary is only 5 weeks away and we've had  several debates. Trump's popularity has remained remarkably, stubbornly consistent for the last 4-5 years, including when he was in office. What is different is Biden's popularity, not Trump's. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

12 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Citation needed that Trump is not 'in the spotlight'. 

32 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

The spotlight will depend on who you are, what you watch, and how intently. At least based on her focus groups, Sarah Longwell says that a lot of these disaffected voters don't even think Trump and Biden are going to be the candidates. They think someone else will step into in the race. They see shows about Republican primary candidates but Trump is not there. They see stuff about Trump legal drama, but that doesn't make them think he's a serious frontrunner. These people are probably not the brightest bulbs in the shed, or they're just focused on their day-today distractions outside of the news.

The race has absolutely started a long while ago, but people who aren't hyper-engaged (and are in fact mostly disengaged) didn't get that memo.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

The spotlight will depend on who you are, what you watch, and how intently. At least based on her focus groups, Sarah Longwell says that a lot of these disaffected voters don't even think Trump and Biden are going to be the candidates. They think someone else will step into in the race. They see shows about Republican primary candidates but Trump is not there. They see stuff about Trump legal drama, but that doesn't make them think he's a serious frontrunner. These people are probably not the brightest bulbs in the shed, or they're just focused on their day-today distractions outside of the news.

The race has absolutely started a long while ago, but people who aren't hyper-engaged (and are in fact mostly disengaged) didn't get that memo.

 

How can people… not know?

Seriously?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I can't provide a citation, but when talking to disengaged people it does seem pretty clear they're oblivious to most of the things he's said since leaving office. They tend to know he's facing charges, but the details usually slip them. The same people also can't describe anything Biden's done. Really all you get from the squishy, clueless middle is "inflation bad." 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

 

How can people… not know?

Seriously?

Face it, Americans just don't know even the most basic things about the government:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/education/3640520-less-than-half-of-americans-can-name-all-three-branches-of-government-survey-finds/

[Phylum of Alexandria]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How can people… not know?

Seriously?

It's one of the saddest facts of our time.

I do know someone who fits the bill in this respect, although I haven't seen them recently enough to get his sense of this election.

The last time I saw him was early this year, and he gave a "they're all the same" comment about Democrats and Republicans. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Don't know why all the visible Indian-Americans in politics are batsh*t crazy loonies like Vivek, and to a lesser extent Nikki Haley and Bobby Jindal (lets not forget Gabbard, on second thoughts lets forget about her). Would be nice if Ro Khanna and Pramila Jayapal could take equal prominence on the left, but they are more low-key and actually get things done.

You forgot Kash Patel. And when you look at Britain, some of the most distinguished polticians of Indian descent have been in goverment in recent memory. Priti Patel (no relationship afaik), Rishi Sunak and ofc Cruella Braverman.