US Politics: Ballot Mainetenance

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Old thread past the 20 page threshold.

Place holder title until I or somebody else comes up with something better. Title updated as I am not reasonably satisfied with it. Not a brilliancy, but good enough.

Grmpf. Reupdated title. You know how difficult it is to weave the word maintain into a political title?!

Edited December 29, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Zorral]

@Ormond  Little chance of violence against women?  Where is the effin' bubble you live?????????????????  The violence committed upon women every day -- and not only, of course out-and-out violence -- rife and constant -- and very often lethal.  And that's w/o having gotten an abortion.

Look at the case against Giuliani of what he was responsible for that was done to the mother and daughter election workers in Georgia, just for one example.  Have you read or listened to their testimony of what they have suffered and still do?  He's likely to lose his case in Georgia.  But the asswaddie has blown all his ill gotten gains, so no matter how much they are going to be awarded in damages he can't pay it.

You are not living in the real world my friend.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Zorral

[Maithanet]

If RFK jr got 2% of the vote (and I personally doubt he'll get that much), it could definitely impact the overall result.  Biden won Wisconsin (the tipping point state) in 2020 by a mere 0.63%. 

However, the idea that he could recreate even half of Perot's performance in 1992 is just farcical.  1992 was a vastly less polarized electorate than it is today.  And Perot ran on actual issues that you could understand, and had a huge campaign apparatus around him, which allowed him to poll ahead of Bush and Clinton for portions of the 1992 campaign.  In contrast, RFK jr's platform is just a puree of conspiracy theories and lies masquerading as "common sense", and he has nowhere near the campaign infrastructure or money. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Kalbear:

Quote

The idea that polls have been inaccurate is largely overstated. In fact, they were some of the most accurate ever in 2022. As the article notes the main value of a poll is not to say who will win, but how close a race something might be. 
 

The election is 11 months away.  Why would we be predicting how tight the election might be based on current polls?

[Kalbear]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Kalbear:

The election is 11 months away.  Why would we be predicting how tight the election might be based on current polls?

I'm not. You asked why you should pay attention to polls given how inaccurate they were, and I pointed out that that was largely an illusion based on the media you're consuming. 

Why you should pay attention to polls now is that they're probably an accurate telling of how people feel now - which is to say that they're not very enthused about anyone, Biden is not a shoe-in to beat Trump and things don't look great. A lot can change in 11 months, but one of the long myths people had after 2020 was that Trump was done for, and one of the myths I regularly see is that Trump's legal issues will cause him to lose and fewer people will support him.

All of that appears to not be backed up by data. 

[kissdbyfire]

Ooopsie daisy.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

A lot can change in 11 months, but one of the long myths people had after 2020 was that Trump was done for, and one of the myths I regularly see is that Trump's legal issues will cause him to lose and fewer people will support him.

All of that appears to not be backed up by data. 

Not his legal issues per se, but some of the polls in the 'swing states' indicate that if he is convicted he could lose ~4-5 percent of that support. I'm not sure I buy the magnitude of that, but any little bit at this point will help.

[ThinkerX]

Trump has eleven months to alienate the voters he needs to win the election. He will do so because he cannot help himself. The conservative base alone will not propel him to victory.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

52 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Trump has eleven months to alienate the voters he needs to win the election. He will do so because he cannot help himself. The conservative base alone will not propel him to victory.

 

This is honestly a good bet. Trump is benefitting from people not remembering how much of a piece of shit he is. 

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

This is honestly a good bet. Trump is benefitting from people not remembering how much of a piece of shit he is. 

Is he though? He's barely been out of the media spotlight, he's not in any position to affect people's lives (unlike when you're the president), which means he can say and claim whatever he wants without having to prove that it will be good for anyone. Anyone who pays a bit of attention to the news and social media will be seeing Trump for who he is, even on news channels that are trying to boost him. Who are the people that voted for Biden in 2020 but think Trump has been acquitting himself well enough to have earned him their vote in 2024? They are not seeing the same Trump I am, or they are seeing the same Trump and they are liking what they see. Though my guess would be that the path to victory is not Biden 2020 voters switching to Trump, but rather Biden 2020 voters not turning out in 2024, or being systematically disenfranchised in Biden 2020 states that are controlled by Republicans at the state level.

Edited December 13, 2023 by The Anti-Targ

[ThinkerX]

29 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is he though? He's barely been out of the media spotlight, he's not in any position to affect people's lives (unlike when you're the president), which means he can say and claim whatever he wants without having to prove that it will be good for anyone. Anyone who pays a bit of attention to the news and social media will be seeing Trump for who he is, even on news channels that are trying to boost him. Who are the people that voted for Biden in 2020 but think Trump has been acquitting himself well enough to have earned him their vote in 2024? They are not seeing the same Trump I am, or they are seeing the same Trump and they are liking what they see. Though my guess would be that the path to victory is not Biden 2020 voters switching to Trump, but rather Biden 2020 voters not turning out in 2024, or being systematically disenfranchised in Biden 2020 states that are controlled by Republicans at the state level.

Like Trump, republicans have most of eleven months to push for an assortment of absolutely horrible policies, at least some of which will cause even near mythical 'moderate republicans' to vote against them. Again, this will be because they literally *have* to push for these horrid bits of legislation regardless of the consequences to their careers.  The same people who vote against them will likely vote against Trump.

 

[Bironic]

21 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Though my guess would be that the path to victory is not Biden 2020 voters switching to Trump, but rather Biden 2020 voters not turning out in 2024, 

Yes that’s what I fear, despite his remarkable successes Biden isn’t really a guy that brings people out to vote, he isn’t much of a campaigner (which in 2020 wasn’t that problematic due to COVID) he doesn’t inspire much love and after 4 years it’s entirely possible that whatever flame or passion the voters have had for him is just gone… so they might stay at home or vote third party and thus enabling trump indirectly…

Abortion could be the issue that will allow Biden to win, a lot of women (and a majority of Americans in general) especially in the crucial suburbs are with the dems on that issue, we have seen that in every election since roe vs wade has been overturned…

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They are not seeing the same Trump I am, or they are seeing the same Trump and they are liking what they see.

They might indeed see a different Trump than what you see, based on what they watch or read and how he's covered. But more importantly, a lot of these people aren't seeing much of Trump at all. Lots of Americans tune out of politics until the last minute of an election. It's insane to contemplate given the real world stakes, and given how clearly crazed he's become even relative to his past insanity, but it's a sad fact about the population. The main possible upside (at least for this election) is that most people find Trump wearisome and troubling when they do get a concentrated dose of him, so let's hope that these people enjoying their nap finally wake up.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

8 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

This is honestly a good bet. Trump is benefitting from people not remembering how much of a piece of shit he is. 

How could anyone forget?

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How could anyone forget?

Indeed but weirdly very true apparently. 

And for those who are missing a proper WTAF reminder of who is the Grifter in Chief (or if anyone is having a hard time thinking of a putrid Xmas presie for that special someone you hate w/ the energy of a million suns):

 

 

[TrackerNeil]

16 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Kalbear:

The election is 11 months away.  Why would we be predicting how tight the election might be based on current polls?

Yes, yes, yes. 

It's strange to me that polls taken a year out from an election are being taken so much more seriously than Democratic performance AT the polls. Democrats have been doing great in off-year and special elections, which is something you wouldn't expect to see if voters were seriously pissed at Biden.

I don't know why Biden is polling so badly, and, I suspect, neither do the people who say they are upset with his performance. I'm always wary of the way people describe their own political opinions anyway, because I find most people's political ideas are incoherent, inconsistent, and often based on what's happening in the news at that moment. So I look for other signs...like, say, downballot performance.

Also, it's easy in November 2023 to say you might vote against Joe Biden, but when November 2024 rolls around and that means a vote for Donald Trump...well, that's a horse of an entirely different color. Voters resoundingly rejected Trump just four years ago, and I doubt many of them have changed their minds. And of course Trump is well known to Americans--who really has no opinion on him? Moreover, by this time next year The Donald could be a convicted felon, and that is NOT going to help him at the ballot box.

In other words, let's salt these polls a bit, yes?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Anyone who pays a bit of attention to the news and social media

You sweet summer child. Most people here don't follow the news and Trump getting kicked off of Twitter (not calling it X) actually probably helped him cause no one looks at his dogshit site. 

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How could anyone forget?

Because most people simply don't care. 

[Zorral]

11 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Trump has eleven months to alienate the voters he needs to win the election. He will do so because he cannot help himself. The conservative base alone will not propel him to victory.

 

If he hasn't alienated the voters he needs over the last YEARS, why do you think they are going to be alienated in the next 11 MONTHS?

Wishful summer child thinking here.

Giuliani, otoh, lacking the quality that provides an adoration from these ilks that rapist in chief has, despite having done nothing different from his chief, including his abuse of women, he alienated everyone.  His chief has also caused this, but Giuliani pays the price, not the chief.

Ga. poll worker describes harrowing threats in Giuliani defamation trial
Wandrea ‘Shaye’ Moss said her life has never been the same since Rudy Giuliani, the former Trump lawyer, falsely accused her of stealing the Georgia election on behalf of Democrats

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/12/12/giuiliani-defamation-trial-election-workers-testify/

Which again, leaves me truly bewildered that anybody in this country can say that women will not be outright murdered for abortions -- and certainly put into prison.

Note -- it's not male poll workers targeted with this treatment by the fascists.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Zorral

[Zorral]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

He's barely been out of the media spotlight, he's not in any position to affect people's lives

That's just dumb.  See my post above.  He's constantly affecting people's lives in every way, and affecting our government on every level from local to federal because he's continually voicing and behaving in the way his base adores, as they attempt to fulfill his goals.  For gods sake why do you think judges have issued gag orders on him?  You just don't understand what's going on here, the actual, real violence that goes on.  Try living through with this shyte as one of his specific targets.  People actually have to hide where they are, get security and all the rest. And others are actually killed as random adjacent targets of what he wants his acolytes to do -- all to get him back as POTUS.  And then what do you think we'll be seeing? 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Zorral

[Fragile Bird]

I see Hunter Biden is refusing to meet behind closed doors before a congressional impeachment committee hearing, saying he’ll appear in public but not in secret. And the Republicans are threatening him with contempt charges.

So why are the Republicans refusing to hold the hearing in public? Wouldn’t that be a great forum for attacking the president?