Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[Sandy Clegg]

17 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Sansa’s presence shouldn’t have been enough to have confirmed to Petyr that Joffrey was in fact dead.  Thus we have the bells ringing.

You can't ignore the complete facts to justify this.

Petyr is exactly arrogant enough to assume that his plan worked, and George wants us to know that he had no way to know this for a fact because he has the bells ringing AND THEN fade from hearing. If you just skip that last bit, then sure I would agree with you. But George gives us enough info to work this out.

[Sandy Clegg]

19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

If it dissolves in wine, then it dissolves in saliva or stomach acid, we've been through this

GRRM didn't go through it, however, and that seems to be the point you're missing.

Cressen's prologue sets out the technique for using the strangler. This is the technique which we must then use when analysing its usage in the subsequent book, otherwise why give us the technique in the first place? It's the author setting the groundwork for the reader to think about the solution. Then by analysing the events of the wedding and applying the previous method shown, we can develop theories as to what happened. 

One chalice, one target. And several ways it could have gone down as to how it was poisoned and by who exactly, I agree. 

19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

So, you're sugesting she threw the poison into the chalice like a basketball without being spotted? Does this seriously make sense to you?

Like flicking a peanut into a waste paper basket, perhaps. I'm just saying it was a big chalice, which makes the Tyrell's job of inserting poison into it that much easier. 

[CamiloRP]

4 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Someone =/= The King.  She isn't sneaking out, she's hidden in the crowd.  This pandemonium simply doesn't happen if the target is Tyrion.  Most particularly the dying man's wife trying to get away attracts attention when everyone else is staying put.

I think you proved my point about subjectivity and objectivity.  Maybe I do too 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

He is going to die, Tyrion realized. He felt curiously calm, though pandemonium raged all about him. They were pounding Joff on the back again, but his face was only growing darker. Dogs were barking, children were wailing, men were shouting useless advice at each other. Half the wedding guests were on their feet, some shoving at each other for a better view, others rushing for the doors in their haste to get away.

 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

 

Margaery Tyrell was weeping in her grandmother's arms as the old lady said, "Be brave, be brave." Most of the musicians had fled, but one last flutist in the gallery was blowing a dirge. In the rear of the throne room scuffling had broken out around the doors, and the guests were trampling on each other. Ser Addam's gold cloaks moved in to restore order. Guests were rushing headlong out into the night, some weeping, some stumbling and retching, others white with fear. It occurred to Tyrion belatedly that it might be wise to leave himself.

 

Word 

Be it the king, or be it a random servant, people will try to help them and people would run away scared. Tyrion is the master of coin, former hand, apparent heir to Casterly Rock and to some, savior of the city. His death would create chaos anyway.

[CamiloRP]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

@CamiloRP A few comments.What does Littlefinger bring to the table?  It's quite possible he provided the murder weapon.  The Strangler is described as rare, difficult to make, and costly.  And while maesters know how to make it, that fact isn't widely known.  The Tyrells may not have had a ready source. 

Olenna could've send someone to rob a maester (safer than trusting LF) or ask some of the many maesters related to her for some of it.

 

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The hairnet may be a method of getting the poison to the Tyrells as well as getting it into the feast.

If Olenna took it when she fixed Sansa's hair, then she took it before entering the feast, so why not have it in her pocket the whole time, instead of relying on Sansa?

 

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Who put it in the wine?  Olenna doesn't have to be the one who administers it.  She can pass it to someone.  I've always suspected Garlan.  He's family, at the table, tall, and likely not the subject of attention at least less than Margaery and Olenna.

That would be even more complex, adding another person who can fail, and Garlan is even further away from Joff.

 

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Poisoning the food.  There are a huge number of courses.  As such there is no assurance that your target will even eat the item you put the poison in.  With wine, you can be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion, for that matter), will drink the wine in front of them.  If someone can introduce the poison into Tyrion's food, it should be even easier to poison his drink.  So I seriously doubt the poison was in the pie, especially since it is described as being administered in wine.

The pie is the most likely food for someone to eat tho. And you can't choak on wine.

 

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Sansa's departure.  If Tyrion is dying, and she is anywhere near, it is unlikely she will be able to leave.  Certainly anyone planning on exfiltrating her would need to assume that likelihood.  If Littlefinger wants Sansa for himself, the logical thing is to get her out first, then deal with Tyrion, or separate them, as is the case here.

She was near Joff when he died, and no one noticed.

 

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I think we are better off trying to figure out how, and maybe why, Littlefinger and Olenna arranged things than in devising alternate scenarios that have no textual support.

I showed plenty of textual support, while the Olenna?Littlefinger theory has only one piece of textual support: the word of a liar.

[CamiloRP]

3 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

I mean, this is without basis and kind of ageist. I'm no spring chicken myself but my hands don't shake.

Shes a 70 year old woman in the middle ages, it's a wonder she's still alive. And she's a noble lady, so her hands aren't that exercised as to retain strenght and dexterity in her later years.

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

GRRM didn't go through it, however, and that seems to be the point you're missing.

Cressen's prologue sets out the technique for using the strangler. This is the technique which we must then use when analysing its usage in the subsequent book, otherwise why give us the technique in the first place? It's the author setting the groundwork for the reader to think about the solution. Then by analysing the events of the wedding and applying the previous method shown, we can develop theories as to what happened. 

One chalice, one target. And several ways it could have gone down as to how it was poisoned and by who exactly, I agree.

I know of no substance that is disolved only in wine. I know of no poison that if ingested is not lethal unless you dissolve it first.

I doesn't make sense for people to intend to simmulate a choaking using a liquid.

 

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Like flicking a peanut into a waste paper basket, perhaps. I'm just saying it was a big chalice, which makes the Tyrell's job of inserting poison into it that much easier. 

That would be easy as hell to spot.

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

I know of no substance that is disolved only in wine. I know of no poison that if ingested is not lethal unless you dissolve it first.

There are a lot of things that don't exist in our world that do exist in GRRM's fantasy world. And as @Sandy Clegg said..

4 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Cressen's prologue sets out the technique for using the strangler. This is the technique which we must then use when analysing its usage in the subsequent book, otherwise why give us the technique in the first place? It's the author setting the groundwork for the reader to think about the solution. Then by analysing the events of the wedding and applying the previous method shown, we can develop theories as to what happened. 

Pycelle later confirms the use of the strangler at the trial. Regardless of whether the poison only dissolves in wine or not, we have to remember that Tyrion sees red wine when Joffrey upends his chalice over his head. And shortly before Joffrey dies, Tyrion sees purple wine dribbling down his chin as he is consuming it. If this was already, discussed, my apologies. I haven't been keeping up with this discussion as of late.

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Tyrion turned in his seat. Joffrey was almost upon him, red-faced and staggering, wine slopping over the rim of the great golden wedding chalice he carried in both hands. "Your Grace," was all he had time to say before the king upended the chalice over his head. The wine washed down over his face in a red torrent. -ASoS Tyrion VIII

Before we see the purple wine, the pie is presented, and Joffrey and Margaery leave their spot, without the chalice, to cut the pie. It's a big show, with Ser Ilyn presenting his greatsword, even Lord Tywin is noted by Tyrion to be focused on the presentation. So in that time, just about anyone could have slipped something into the chalice without notice. Perhaps it was Olenna, perhaps it was someone else who did it for her. Most likely a Tyrell. Perhaps she slipped the poison to Garlan.

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"The king's chalice was on the table where he'd left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. 'My lord,' Margaery said, 'we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us.'" -ASoS Tysion VIII

Something happened to the wine, and people were distracted enough during the pie cutting that someone could have slipped the strangler into the king's chalice.

Edited April 12 by Ser Arthurs Dawn

[Frey family reunion]

5 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The bay is big. He has plenty of water north of wherever Sansa was, out in Blackwater Bay, as they had rowed for such a long time. See this map:  https://heavy.com/entertainment/2019/05/game-of-thrones-map-kings-landing-dragonstone-winterfell-dragonstone-s8e5-timeline/

For example, draw a line south from Duskendale then east from KL - if Sansa was anywhere around that intersecting point, then The Merlin King could have easily come from the north while being nowhere near King's Landing, and Sansa can still see the east sun rising.

There's no support for Petyr coming from King's Landing still, yet plenty of ways he can avoid the eastern sun.

I’m not completely sure why you’re being this stubborn on the issue.  You’re basically arguing that it was impossible for Petyr to have heard the bells ringing even though you admittedly can’t answer where exactly Petyr’s ship was coming from when it came upon Sansa’s rowboat.  Now, I don’t know exactly where Petyr’s ship was coming from either, but my argument is that based on the geography of the bay, the direction Sansa’s rowboat was going in, and the fact that Petyr’s ship came out of the dark, thus not out of the East which would have put him further from King’s Landing, makes it very possible that he was positioned close enough at King’s Landing to have heard the bells.

It’s also the only reason that Petyr could have been that certain that Joffrey was poisoned.  I don’t care how arrogant he is or how good he thought the plan was, the simple fact of the matter is, the poisoning itself was outside of his hands, he had to rely on others to do the dirty work.

The only thing that would have made him certain that Joffrey was dead was the sound of the bells.  The same confirmation that Sansa had after she fled King’s Landing.

This argument kind of reminds me on the attacks on the Braavosi Lemon tree issue.  There are posters scoffing at the discrepancies having any meaning, even after GRRM himself confirms that yes, it does mean something that he can’t reveal yet.

Here, you’re arguing that there can be no other explanation other than Olenna having poisoned Joffrey.  Even though the author himself says that he may have some surprises in store for us concerning the identity of Joff’s poisoner.

Since you’re not really coming up with any possible surprises it seems a bit presumptuous for you to scoff at those of us who are.

Edited April 12 by Frey family reunion

[Jaenara Belarys]

I'm not the most avid theory reader, so this is based mostly of me not liking theories based off in universe consequences for Dany. 

I don't like theories that would make it so that Jon or Young Griff is the rightful heir of the Iron Throne. I'm a Dany fan, I want her to succeed and rule Westeros in some manner, and I want Jon or YG to be below her on the totem pole. She can be stupid and she doesn't have a lot of experience but she's written to the point where I (as someone who also doesn't have a lot of life experience) sympathize with her. I want her to win, and I would be diddly damned burnt if I saw Jon or some blue haired pretender steal her rightful place. 

In other news, I'm not a fan of the Lemongate theories that posit her to be of weird ancestry (Rhaella/Rhaegar, etc). Yes, it's weird there's a lemon tree there. BUT, to extrapolate all other sorts of information is just fanfiction, not a logical theory. There's a lot of stuff for who the Knight of the Laughing Tree is, or R+L=J. Extravagant theories aren't my thing. 

 

[CamiloRP]

11 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

There are a lot of things that don't exist in our world that do exist in GRRM's fantasy world. And as @Sandy Clegg said..

Pycelle later confirms the use of the strangler at the trial. Regardless of whether the poison only dissolves in wine or not, we have to remember that Tyrion sees red wine when Joffrey upends his chalice over his head. And shortly before Joffrey dies, Tyrion sees purple wine dribbling down his chin as he is consuming it. If this was already, discussed, my apologies. I haven't been keeping up with this discussion as of late.

Before we see the purple wine, the pie is presented, and Joffrey and Margaery leave their spot, without the chalice, to cut the pie. It's a big show, with Ser Ilyn presenting his greatsword, even Lord Tywin is noted by Tyrion to be focused on the presentation. So in that time, just about anyone could have slipped something into the chalice without notice. Perhaps it was Olenna, perhaps it was someone else who did it for her. Most likely a Tyrell. Perhaps she slipped the poison to Garlan.

Something happened to the wine, and people were distracted enough during the pie cutting that someone could have slipped the strangler into the king's chalice.

To be honest, I haven't noticed that bit, and from now on I'll consider it the most solid piece of evidence for Joff being the target (which doesn't intself mean Olenna was involved as it makes no sense). However, that does not necessarilly mean the strangler was in the wine. Wine is neither red nor purple, it's an in-between color, deppending on the light it can be either or, in fact, GRRM often describes it as one or the other, and he often plays with eye color, for example. This is why I say it's not a deffinitive proof. Did george put those lines there purposely? absolutely. But weather it was to confirm or to mislead we can't yet know. As I said, it could;ve been a trick of the light or a different wine being served.

[sifth]

To be fair, any theory that tries to make a big deal out of something minor. Summer seeing a dragon at the end of the second book being a prime example of this. It's clear as day, Summer is just seeing the smoke rise from Winterfell. The lemon tree in Bravos is another example of this.

[Sandy Clegg]

16 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Petyr’s ship came out of the dark, thus not out of the East which would have put him further from King’s Landing

I'm trying to establish that just because it didn't come from the east, doesn't mean it came from KL. For Sansa's boat to meet Petyr head on and for her to see the east, means she had to heading roughly NE, which makes sense. And so Peter's ship heading south, from the north, gives plenty of darkness. They can't have been travelling parallel if she met him head on. North of Sansa is as much further from KL as east would be. I'm not sure how that's being stubborn, I just want to make sure we're not assuming too much here and tread on solid ground. Or water, in this case.

16 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s also the only reason that Petyr could have been that certain that Joffrey was poisoned.  I don’t care how arrogant he is or how good he thought the plan was, the simple fact of the matter is, the poisoning itself was outside of his hands, he had to rely on others to do the dirty work.

The only thing that would have made him certain that Joffrey was dead was the sound of the bells.  The same confirmation that Sansa had after she fled King’s Landing.

Well I guess this is just one of those 'your mileage will vary' issues., so we might never agree. But I see the fact of LF's assumption that his plan worked as a key character-defining moment. It speaks to his arrogance, and we learn a little more about him. But also, if the target was Joffrey and the plan was to have Sansa escape with Dontos following his death, then their very arrival on the ship means something went right at least. Petyr gains information by their very presence. And Oswell does not apprise Petyr of anything, remember, which is not insignificant. If anything had gone awry, we can reasonably expect his trusted henchman to have told him so. So Petyr is, perhaps arrogantly but also logically, taking lack of any new information to mean everything proceeded as expected. 

17 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Here, you’re arguing that there can be no other explanation other than Olenna having poisoned Joffrey.  Even though the author himself says that he may have some surprises in store for us concerning the identity of Joff’s poisoner.

Since you’re not really coming up with any possible surprises it seems a bit presumptuous for you to scoff at those of us who are.

George is free to muddy the waters whenever he sees fit, he's not beholden to anyone.

My main sticking point is that Tyrion makes no sense as the target at this wedding, and has far little evidence in the text to support it compared to Joffrey. For normal readers (not forum members) this solution is already plenty convoluted, with a complex resolution, which seems to satisfy the narrative logic. I'm perfectly happy for there to be wrinkles in the plan, as I've said. Having an extra target, or extra poisoners, for example, which would count as surprises I guess. The pie and the wine? Maybe. But the wine's purple discolouration, so casually mentioned in the text, looks to be as subtle a clue as you can get for the average reader and doesn't feel like a red herring to me. 

If I was to play devil's advocate and support the pie->Tyrion theory, then what clues are we left with? The Kingsguard who mentions that 'servants were coming and going all evening'. That's it. The pie or the cream is not described as looking or smelling odd - fair clues which one might expect if the pie had been tampered with. So that's extremely subtle, even for George. I think with Jaime's conversation with the Kingsguard he is doing what he does in that quote: muddying the waters to make the mystery more tantalising. 

I can't speculate on what surprises in the wedding plot GRRM may have, if he does come good on that promise. Tywin's theorised poisoning by the Red Viper might feature in there somewhere? There seemed to be no shortage of able poisoners in KL that day. 

Sorry for being stubborn, it's really not like me to be digging down with plot stuff - as some here may know, I much prefer the more esoteric analyses. That's a polite way of putting it I guess.  

But this whole purple wedding/strangler debate has fuelled a theory I've had in my notes for a while now, so I've started writing it up properly. It may be possible to prove not only that the strangler killed Joffrey, but to identify one of its future targets. But I'll need about 10,000 words and more symbolism than you can shake a stick at, in order to do so. Gulp.

 

[the trees have eyes]

19 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Be it the king, or be it a random servant, people will try to help them and people would run away scared. Tyrion is the master of coin, former hand, apparent heir to Casterly Rock and to some, savior of the city. His death would create chaos anyway.

Tyrion is small potatoes, not the people or court favourite you make him out to be.  The books make this very clear.

A random servant?  Let's be serious.  It's the King's wedding celebration in a feudal monarchy, you absolutely don't have an equivalent reaction if a servant or the king are taken ill. All men are not equal here (very much not).

People around Joffrey will watch him fire his crossbow at the starving smallfolk or watch a man who denied his legitimacy be executed right in the throne room by Meryn Trant (after the battle of the Blackwater) without running for the exits. 

Tyrion has no friends or allies even among his own family (Bronn and Shagga don't count - the latter playing bandit in the Kingswood anyway) and he is not considered the saviour of KL, that's Tywin and the Tyrells who broke the siege.  The smallfolk think things were better before he took charge, he's the twisted monkey demon mocked for collecting the dwarf's penny and absurdly grateful when Garlan pays him a compliment about the part he played in defending the city.  He's also the king's detested uncle who is humiliated at every turn, doused with a chalice and ordered to ride a pig at his wedding feast.

Tyrion's death is not going to cause any kind of uproar or confusion, certainly not anything remotely near enough for Sansa, his wife and a hugely valuable hostage to just float out of the Feast Room, The Red Keep and KL.  Only the king's death can create enough of a stampede, a pandemonium (the author's words) to allow Sansa to be forgotten and unnoticed long enough to escape.

[sifth]

I'm not sure I like Quentyn Martell being alive either. Truth be told the series just has too many dam characters and will never end unless a few of them die and Prince Frog just doesn't seem all that important,  compared to most of the others.

[Alester Florent]

7 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Tyrion is small potatoes, not the people or court favourite you make him out to be.  The books make this very clear.

...

Tyrion's death is not going to cause any kind of uproar or confusion, certainly not anything remotely near enough for Sansa, his wife and a hugely valuable hostage to just float out of the Feast Room, The Red Keep and KL.  Only the king's death can create enough of a stampede, a pandemonium (the author's words) to allow Sansa to be forgotten and unnoticed long enough to escape.

Tyrion certainly isn't as big a deal as Joffrey - nobody is - but he's not some random schmuck either. He's still a member of the Small Council, Tywin's son, a member of the royal family, the ostensible heir to one lord paramountcy and a serious claimant to at least the regency of another, jure uxoris. He does still have at least one major political ally - the High Septon - not counting Tywin himself or indeed Jaime, who isn't present but is on his way. Oberyn clearly considers him someone worth getting to know and not antagonising.

Even if nobody actually cares that much about Tyrion personally, he is a man of status and at least ostensible influence.

Indeed, his importance is evident to some extent by dint of the way that Littlefinger, no fool, thinks he's someone worth going to trouble to antagonise and eliminate.

So if he suddenly and dramatically chokes to death in the middle of the king's wedding feast, it's going to cause a commotion. The whole hall isn't just going to stand there and watch him die and then carry on Mos Eisley cantina-style with him still lying there. That's the case even where a random schmuck is concerned! If some hedge knight or merchant chokes to death in the middle of the feast, it's going to cause at least a bit of localised disruption even if it doesn't actually interfere with the high personages. But Tyrion is among the high personages: his death would be inevitably disruptive, at least to the extent that Sansa might be able to make a getaway.

There are people of decency present who would see it as their general duty to go to his aid: even if Garlan is in on it (which he may not be), it's hard to imagine someone like Balon Swann just watching on impassively. Apart from anything else, if there's the suspicion of poison having reached Tyrion, then the implication is - given the geography of the room and Tyrion's status, that the king was in danger.

FWIW, I see no particular reason to doubt the official story we've had revealed to us in the books. We can second-guess the text all day but we're given no real reason to in this case. GRRM's plotting doesn't tend to be that intricate or deceptive. People do things which aren't necessarily perfectly rational, or which carry a degree of risk, both in real life and in these stories, and where we can say "but what if this happened, and then what if this happened?" sure we can poke holes in the plan, but the fact is, if the plan was to kill Joffrey, permit Sansa's getaway, and escape the blame, then it worked perfectly. That there was a small chance it might not have done is irrelevant - assasssinating kings is never a risk-free business!

[CamiloRP]

9 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Tyrion is small potatoes, not the people or court favourite you make him out to be.  The books make this very clear.

A random servant?  Let's be serious.  It's the King's wedding celebration in a feudal monarchy, you absolutely don't have an equivalent reaction if a servant or the king are taken ill. All men are not equal here (very much not).

People around Joffrey will watch him fire his crossbow at the starving smallfolk or watch a man who denied his legitimacy be executed right in the throne room by Meryn Trant (after the battle of the Blackwater) without running for the exits. 

Tyrion has no friends or allies even among his own family (Bronn and Shagga don't count - the latter playing bandit in the Kingswood anyway) and he is not considered the saviour of KL, that's Tywin and the Tyrells who broke the siege.  The smallfolk think things were better before he took charge, he's the twisted monkey demon mocked for collecting the dwarf's penny and absurdly grateful when Garlan pays him a compliment about the part he played in defending the city.  He's also the king's detested uncle who is humiliated at every turn, doused with a chalice and ordered to ride a pig at his wedding feast.

Tyrion's death is not going to cause any kind of uproar or confusion, certainly not anything remotely near enough for Sansa, his wife and a hugely valuable hostage to just float out of the Feast Room, The Red Keep and KL.  Only the king's death can create enough of a stampede, a pandemonium (the author's words) to allow Sansa to be forgotten and unnoticed long enough to escape.

I disagree completely. Tyrion is a noble lord, master of coin, former hand of the king and heir to Casterly Rock. He saved the city in some people's eyes, at least Garland Tyrell. And he's still... you know... a person. HIm dying out of the blue would cause people to panic. Him choaking would cause some people want to help him, maybe maesters, maybe Garland, maybe Oberyn. Joffrey's and Cersei's reactions would cause distraction too. And Tywin too, probably.

I see no world in which he starts to die in the same gruesome matter as Joffrey and people just get on with the wedding. Poeple would panic anyway.

[Aldarion]

Theories where Daenerys just magically solves all the problems in Essos and Westeros. Sure, she is one of two protagonists. But even Tolkien didn't have his protagonists solve all the problems during the course of the books, and indeed, success came at price of significant losses - both to the protagonists themselves (Frodo has to leave) and to the Middle Earth overall (elves leaving, ents and dwarves dying out).

[the trees have eyes]

14 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

I disagree completely. Tyrion is a noble lord, master of coin, former hand of the king and heir to Casterly Rock. He saved the city in some people's eyes, at least Garland Tyrell. And he's still... you know... a person. HIm dying out of the blue would cause people to panic. Him choaking would cause some people want to help him, maybe maesters, maybe Garland, maybe Oberyn. Joffrey's and Cersei's reactions would cause distraction too. And Tywin too, probably.

I see no world in which he starts to die in the same gruesome matter as Joffrey and people just get on with the wedding. Poeple would panic anyway.

You're free to disagree.  Would Tyrion choking cause some upset and localised disturbance?  Sure.  Enough for pandemonium to break out and guests to trample themselves in their rush to exit the hall?  Absolutely not.  Joffrey would be both amused and then annoyed that Tyrion was spoiling his wedding feast but guests would be taking their cue from the royal couple and staying put.  And with Tyrin choking Sansa attempting to leave the room and then flee KL without people watching (or stopping) her or immediately searching for her is absolutely unrealistic.  Only the King's death scene causes that uproar or the momentous tolling of the bells which distracts everyone from their normal routines.

He's you know a person.  Yes. What happened when Gregor Clegane killed Jon Arryn's squire in the Hand's Torney?  Jeyne Poole ran off sobbing, every one else stayed put.  He was a person too but there was no panic as people ran screaming for the exits.  Feudal monarchy =/= representative democracy, people regard and react differently to the king.  Perhaps you noticed the fuss and the ceremony in the UK when Queen Elizabeth passed away in 2022 and that was for a constitutional monarch who had a ceremonial function only.

You are confusing a reaction to Tyrion choking to the scene of chaos when the king dies at his own wedding feast.  The two are apples and oranges yet you are treating them the same.

Why would people panic and run out, trampling each other, if someone choked on their food?  Would you?  Nope, thought not.  It's regrettable even shocking but it doesn't affect you.

@Alester Florent  Tyrion is not a random schmuck but he is in very low standing with both Joffrey, who loathes and ridicules him at every step, and with Tywin after his threats to harm Tommen who he held as a hostage in his power struggle with Cersei.  He is expected to ride a pig at Joffery's feast for the amusement of the guests and his own humiliation and has a drink poured over him by a furious king.  He is very much a peripheral court character and dispensable.  Nevertheless, my point, which I hope is clear, was that Sansa cannot escape unnoticed unless there is a major panic / pandemonium / stampede for the exits and this simply doesn't happen with Tyrion's death the way it does with the king's because people won't flee.  The quotes I put above for the guests' reaction to Joffrey's death simply do not fit the death of Tyrion and this problem can clearly be seen in advance by any plotters.

Edited April 14 by the trees have eyes

[Sandy Clegg]

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

The quotes I put above for the guests' reaction to Joffrey's death simply do not fit the death of Tyrion and this problem can clearly be seen in advance by any plotters.

Are you enjoying your paddle? 

I think @Alester Florent does a good job of treating both cases fairly, and judging the potential panic is one of the more hypothetical areas. But he does overstate Tyrion's importance I think. The panic that ensues with Joff's death is greatly aided by the Tyrell's vocal shouting:

"He's choking," Queen Margaery gasped.
Her grandmother moved to her side. "Help the poor boy!" the Queen of Thorns screeched, in a voice ten times her size. "Dolts! Will you all stand about gaping? Help your king!"
Ser Garlan shoved Tyrion aside and began to pound Joffrey on the back. Ser Osmund Kettleblack ripped open the king's collar. A fearful high thin sound emerged from the boy's throat, the sound of a man trying to suck a river through a reed; then it stopped, and that was more terrible still. "Turn him over!" Mace Tyrell bellowed at everyone and no one. "Turn him over, shake him by his heels!"

This coupled with Cersei's grief-rage wailing and accusations are as much responsible for the panic as Joff's death, I think. The Tyrell's do their collective utmost to stir up the crowd. Would this have been as effective if Tyrion was lying on the ground? Possibly. But by a far smaller magnitude, I'd wager.

A king dying signals many fearful things. Regime change. Knives coming out. Searches for culprits. You can see why people wouldn't want to hang around - if a king can be killed, who's next?

 

[CamiloRP]

16 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

You're free to disagree.  Would Tyrion choking cause some upset and localised disturbance?  Sure.  Enough for pandemonium to break out and guests to trample themselves in their rush to exit the hall?  Absolutely not.  Joffrey would be both amused and then annoyed that Tyrion was spoiling his wedding feast but guests would be taking their cue from the royal couple and staying put.  And with Tyrin choking Sansa attempting to leave the room and then flee KL without people watching (or stopping) her or immediately searching for her is absolutely unrealistic.  Only the King's death scene causes that uproar or the momentous tolling of the bells which distracts everyone from their normal routines.

He's you know a person.  Yes. What happened when Gregor Clegane killed Jon Arryn's squire in the Hand's Torney?  Jeyne Poole ran off sobbing, every one else stayed put.  He was a person too but there was no panic as people ran screaming for the exits.  Feudal monarchy =/= representative democracy, people regard and react differently to the king.  Perhaps you noticed the fuss and the ceremony in the UK when Queen Elizabeth passed away in 2022 and that was for a constitutional monarch who had a ceremonial function only.

You are confusing a reaction to Tyrion choking to the scene of chaos when the king dies at his own wedding feast.  The two are apples and oranges yet you are treating them the same.

Why would people panic and run out, trampling each other, if someone choked on their food?  Would you?  Nope, thought not.  It's regrettable even shocking but it doesn't affect you.

Tyrion is not a random squire tho, he's the former hand of the king, current master of coin and heir to casterly rock. And a wedding isn't a tourney, people go to tourneys expecting violence, people falling from their horses, people bitting eachother with blunted weapons (even firery swords), bones being broken, etc.

Tyrion dying would certainly create chaos akin to Joffrey dying.

In today's society a president dying would create more chaos than a random person dying, but so would if the person who died was at the same time the former VP, current ministry of economy and the heir to Elon Musk.