When were the other NW castles abandoned?

[James Steller]

Did we ever get an indication of dates for those other castles? I seem to recall that at least one of them was still manned during the events of FAB, for example.

[Aebram]

You're probably thinking of Queen Alysanne, who visited the Wall around 58 AC. After visiting the Nightfort, the oldest castle on the Wall, she offered to fund the building of a new castle, Deep Lake.  Construction took 8 years, but "the Nightfort was abandoned even before Deep Lake was completed, as the queen had wished," according to Fire and Blood..

Other than that, I don't think we know the specifics of any of the abandoned castles. I imagine it happened gradually, over centuries or millennia, as the Long Night faded from history into legend.

Edited January 27 by Aebram

[Craving Peaches]

I think based on these numbers, they were abandoned sometime between Aegon's Conquest and the start of the series. This is because the Watch goes from 10,000* men to to ~1000 total meaning the capacity to man castles would fall. Watch at current strength can man 3 castes. Watch at that strength should be able to man ten times that amount (thirty castles) because they have ten times the men, though they are undermanned, so maybe in 0AD they could man all seventeen (Wiki says they never used all nineteen at once), taking into account that the current castles are undermanned (which if true, means that current castles are being manned by roughly half the people they should be).

* However, if you interpret that line:

Quote

When Aegon slew Black Harren and claimed his kingdom, Harren's brother was Lord Commander on the Wall, with ten thousand swords to hand.

as just referring to fighting men/rangers, Watch has lots more people, because it is 10,000 rangers + stewards + builders, assuming that the ratio is third of each, Watch has 30,000 spread over 17 castles, or roughly 1764 men per castle, meaning that the current day Watch is under-manning the castles even more...

But this can't account for potential size differences in castles so it could be off.

[Aebram]

FAB mentions that the brothers moved out of the Nightfort before Deep Lake was completed. And of course, the construction of the Wall and the 19 castles must have taken many years. It seems unlikely that all 19 were built at the same time; else the Nightfort would not have been described as the oldest. So that may explain the "never all 19 at once" part.

Thanks for giving us the "10,000 swords" quote; that's an interesting data point. I will guess that "swords" refers to all the brothers, not just the rangers. When necessary for battle, I imagine that any and all of the men could be called to fight; and we know that recruits are taught fighting skills before they are assigned as a ranger/builder/steward.

As you say, we don't know exactly what "undermanned" means; but 50% seems like a good figure to use for now. So if 1,000 men are undermanning three castles, that suggests that a normal count would be about 650-700 men per castle.  In that case, 10,000 men would be enough to man 14 or 15 castles. That seems reasonable.

It still seems unlikely to me that the Watch remained at full strength over thousands of years before Aegon's Conquest, and then lost 90% of its strength in a mere 300 years.  Perhaps the Others continued to range South of the Wall during the winters; that would remind people that they are real, not just folklore. But in that case, why did they stop invading after the Conquest? Are they afraid of dragons? Is this just another case of the George being imprecise with numbers? (sigh) I need more data points!.   :^)

[Floki of the Ironborn]

4 hours ago, Aebram said:

It still seems unlikely to me that the Watch remained at full strength over thousands of years before Aegon's Conquest, and then lost 90% of its strength in a mere 300 years.  

That makes me think that the Night's Watch was already under strength when they were down to 10,000 men.

What I find very strange, though, is that there seem to be fewer and fewer people going to the Night's Watch post-Conquest. You'd think that it would be much easier for people to go north when the seven kingdoms aren't constantly warring with each other. I get that the North would value any additional recruits for the Wall, but allowing the transportation of prisoners across northern land feels like that could lead to some truly devious tricks in trying to conquer the North. Any one of the southern kingdoms could pull a Cersei and send a small army of men North under the guise of NW recruits, then infiltrate Winterfell instead, or something like that. 

[kissdbyfire]

On 1/28/2024 at 5:55 AM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

What I find very strange, though, is that there seem to be fewer and fewer people going to the Night's Watch post-Conquest. You'd think that it would be much easier for people to go north when the seven kingdoms aren't constantly warring with each other.

Agree. And it’s another reason why I really hate the idea that “Aegon I knew, dreamt, saw in tarot cards or his daily horoscope” that the Others posed a threat, yadda yadda yadda. Had he known or suspected, he should have shared this info w/ at least his own family (not to mention using it to unite all of Westeros), but also paid some attention to the Wall and the NW, and certainly done all in his power to keep both strong, well-funded and properly manned. Anything different only means he was a complete idiot. Hence, if this scenario makes it into future books it will be the worst & dumbest retcon ever. 

Edited January 29 by kissdbyfire

[Alester Florent]

On 1/28/2024 at 8:55 AM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

That makes me think that the Night's Watch was already under strength when they were down to 10,000 men.

What I find very strange, though, is that there seem to be fewer and fewer people going to the Night's Watch post-Conquest. You'd think that it would be much easier for people to go north when the seven kingdoms aren't constantly warring with each other. I get that the North would value any additional recruits for the Wall, but allowing the transportation of prisoners across northern land feels like that could lead to some truly devious tricks in trying to conquer the North. Any one of the southern kingdoms could pull a Cersei and send a small army of men North under the guise of NW recruits, then infiltrate Winterfell instead, or something like that. 

I have heard it suggested, and think there's some merit in the idea, that the rise of the Golden Company damaged the Watch. If the Watch was largely made up of prisoners, political exiles and younger sons who stood to inherit nothing, once the GC appeared there was an alternative, a quasi-honourable Westeros-minded organisation always happy for new recruits, but which looks a lot more fun and offers a lot more opportunities (i.e. any) to get rich and laid, not to mention the weather's much nicer, and in theory leaves open the possibility to come back to Westeros and own land and stuff, whereas the Watch means renouncing all of that.

Indeed, the GC was even founded by someone who was meant to go the NW but defected.

It is probably a coincidence that the GC has about 10,000 men and that's the size the Watch was at the start of Aegon's reign. Not that all those people would necessarily have gone to the NW instead, but surely quite a lot of them would.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

9 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I have heard it suggested, and think there's some merit in the idea, that the rise of the Golden Company damaged the Watch. If the Watch was largely made up of prisoners, political exiles and younger sons who stood to inherit nothing, once the GC appeared there was an alternative, a quasi-honourable Westeros-minded organisation always happy for new recruits, but which looks a lot more fun and offers a lot more opportunities (i.e. any) to get rich and laid, not to mention the weather's much nicer, and in theory leaves open the possibility to come back to Westeros and own land and stuff, whereas the Watch means renouncing all of that.

Indeed, the GC was even founded by someone who was meant to go the NW but defected.

It is probably a coincidence that the GC has about 10,000 men and that's the size the Watch was at the start of Aegon's reign. Not that all those people would necessarily have gone to the NW instead, but surely quite a lot of them would.

That doesn't seem right to me either. There are tons of mercenary companies in Essos, and there always have been. The Stormbreakers, for one, and the Wolf Pack. Are you saying that all those men in the companies would have gone to the Wall without that option?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Not enough men, money and supplies, and the men being stretched too thin to effectively watch over the Wall and Gift.

[Alester Florent]

8 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

That doesn't seem right to me either. There are tons of mercenary companies in Essos, and there always have been. The Stormbreakers, for one, and the Wolf Pack. Are you saying that all those men in the companies would have gone to the Wall without that option?

I think the GC is a bit different to the other (Westerosi) mercenary companies. Whereas the Stormbreakers and Wolf Pack were basically adventuring outfits, the GC was an effective government in exile for 50 years, and still retains some of that cachet. Moreover, you could quite happily go off and fight in the Stormbreakers or Wolf Pack (or Second Sons, or Oberyn's company, etc.) for a bit, then come back and resume your life in Westeros, but joining the GC is a bigger statement - especially during the Targ era - making it more of a lifetime commitment equivalent to the NW.

But it may also be possible that the bleed-off into the mercenary companies from what would otherwise be NW recruits started much earlier.

As far as "Aegon's dream" and the implications of that go, my suspicion of where the show is going is that it will reveal that the knowledge previously passed down king-to-heir before the Dance will end up being lost in the war: Aegon II doesn't know, and presumably Rhaenyra doesn't tell Aegon III before she is killed (being distracted/heartbroken before getting back to Dragonstone, and, not expecting to be killed immediately on arrival, expecting there would be time later). So any encouragement to "keep the Watch strong" will also be lost and the creation of two merc companies following the Dance (rather than some of those guys going to the Watch) may be intentional, in which case the GC would be merely the latest manifestation of the ongoing trend.

That wouldn't explain, of course, why Aegon I took apparently no steps to strengthen the Watch during his reign, but perhaps he felt he didn't need to.

I think there's also a question-mark over how the relevant knowledge survived Maegor. We can probably assume that Aenys and Maegor were both aware (Visenya filling in Maegor) but if Aenys passed that on to anyone it'll have been to Aegon the Uncrowned, not to Jaehaerys. And Maegor's designated heir was Aerea, a child. I guess it must have survived through Rhaena, but if it is where the books are going it could do with some clarification.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

That wouldn't explain, of course, why Aegon I took apparently no steps to strengthen the Watch during his reign, but perhaps he felt he didn't need to.

He didn't even bother to visit though...

[James Steller]

12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He didn't even bother to visit though...

More proof that the prophecy is a terrible idea and will deeply undermine GRRM’s extensive world building efforts.

[The hairy bear]

On 1/28/2024 at 5:21 AM, Aebram said:

So if 1,000 men are undermanning three castles, that suggests that a normal count would be about 650-700 men per castle.  In that case, 10,000 men would be enough to man 14 or 15 castles. That seems reasonable.

This extrapolation doesn't take into account that the three currently manned castles are bigger than average (Castle Black being the "central castle", Eastwatch-by-the-Sea a trade and communications hub, and the Shadow Tower the most important castle on the west side). One should assume that the other castles (with the exception of the Nightfort) are much smaller than those.

(the current distribution is 600 men at Castle Black, 200 at the Shadow Tower, and fewer at Eastwatch)

With this in mind, ten thousand men should be more than enough to man all the castles of the Watch.

On 1/28/2024 at 9:55 AM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

What I find very strange, though, is that there seem to be fewer and fewer people going to the Night's Watch post-Conquest. You'd think that it would be much easier for people to go north when the seven kingdoms aren't constantly warring with each other.

An explanation that has been frequently suggested is that there was the tradition that prisoners in border skirmishes during the Seven Kingdoms period were usually sent to the Wall. Once those wars stopped, the Wall lost this steady supply of recruits.

After that, we know that Maegor sent there many members of the Faith Militant. But during the long, peaceful reigns of Jaehaerys and Viserys, the decline would be significant, as they wouldn't get replacements during a whole century. And since the Dance ended with no clear losing side and everyone focused on reconciliation, that trend would continue. I daresay that it must be during this long period that many of the Wall's castles were closed.

Edited February 1 by The hairy bear

[astarkchoice]

On 1/30/2024 at 10:56 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Not enough men, money and supplies, and the men being stretched too thin to effectively watch over the Wall and Gift.

The annoying thing for the watch has gotta be the 2 things are connected.

As less men means less castles can be manned and less patrols,which means mkre wildlings putting off  people living in the gift which in turn degrades tithes paid to the watch..itd a vicious downward spiral

[CassDarry]

My question is, did the Watch seal the gates with ice and rock, like propoesd at Castke Black?

If so, now Jon has manned some now.....can they not go ranging, just walk the wall?