Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Werthead]

The Ocheretyne situation is concerning. It looks like Ukraine can contain it but it might be touch and go. The good news is that it's the Russian forces from Avdiivka who are advancing there and they've been badly mauled. If Russia reinforces with fresh troops, that could be more concerning but with the new draft reportedly put off until June, Russia has to make do with the forces it has along the front.

Russia might also have to face a choice between reinforcing this apparent success or focusing on Chasiv Yar. The forces they have available for the latter campaign feel tight, so if they start sending troops to the Avdiivka front they might start stretching themselves thin.

Ukraine is maintaining the bridgehead at Krynky and seems to have made some offensive assaults in that sector recently, interestingly. One idea floating for a while was that if Ukraine has to give ground near Avdiivka - and they can perhaps afford to there - they might be able to reinforce a sucker punch from Kherson to the coast through the Krynky sector and cut off Crimea whilst blowing the bridge at the same time, which might just cause total chaos in Crimea. There's been umming and ahhing over whether that's realistic or a good idea or far too risky, but with this new supply line and much longer-range weapons, it might become viable. It could also change the entire geostrategic outlook of the war and put Russia really on the back foot.

The slight problem is really getting the momentum to do that, which is hard when you have to cross one of the biggest rivers in Europe near its mouth with limited ways of getting across, in order to resupply.

[ThinkerX]

I have suspected for a while now that Ukraine is setting Russia up for a 'sucker punch with spikes' - and that the Russian commanders are stupid enough to walk right into it. 

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

I have suspected for a while now that Ukraine is setting Russia up for a 'sucker punch with spikes' - and that the Russian commanders are stupid enough to walk right into it. 

I think it's more accurate to say that Ukraine would like to do that and there's areas where they might be able to do it, but there's also very fraught risks with trying it.

[Maithanet]

I do wonder if the Ukrainian ammo shortage might swing hard the other way.  US and Czech ammo could be arriving in huge quantities in the next couple months. 

[Bironic]

20 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I do wonder if the Ukrainian ammo shortage might swing hard the other way.  US and Czech ammo could be arriving in huge quantities in the next couple months. 

Apparently Ukraine is running out of ammo for their mainly eastern bloc MBT fleet, especially the 125mm caliber. I doubt that the US can do all that much about that (unless they replace their MBTs with abrams). The Czechs/Estonians might be able to find some countries that are willing to sell though…

Timur Ivanov one of the 12 (sic!!!) Deputy ministers of defense has been arrested by the FSB and is charged with corruption. Ivanov was mainly responsible for military properties, buildings, infrastructure and medical facilities. He lived a lavish lifestyle way above his salary as deputy minister and was accused of corruption by Navalny as well. He was appointed to his post by Shoigu. 
there are different rumors why he’s been arrested, some say because of the decade old FSB-military feud (especially after the recent FSB debacle against Isis-k), others point out that Ivanov and the military have overreached in replacing and absorbing all of Prighozins assets (he was super rich after all) others think it has to do that Putin and a new government will be sworn in in 2 weeks so there might be some reshuffling and someone has to take a fall/blame. 

[Loge]

11 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Apparently Ukraine is running out of ammo for their mainly eastern bloc MBT fleet, especially the 125mm caliber. I doubt that the US can do all that much about that (unless they replace their MBTs with abrams). The Czechs/Estonians might be able to find some countries that are willing to sell though…

Why can't NATO make ammo for Soviet-era weapons? NATO countries should have built up manufacturing for 152 mm artillery and 125 mm tank Ammo starting in 2022.

[The Big Stink]

Ukraine needs more soldiers. They have the hardware and tech they just need fresh bodies. I'm surprised there are not more volunteers. 

[Bironic]

A discussion what NATO/the west could or should have done will probably fill an entire book by now…

Nato has struggled to even ramp up production of their own weapon systems (105, 120, 155 mm etc). IMHO it doesn’t make much sense to build extra new facilities that produce eastern systems since all western nations (including Ukraine) are/ have phasing them out or didn’t have them in the first place. (respectively in case of Ukraine they are also being destroyed by Russia). And from a long term logistical standpoint it makes no sense to have both nato standard weaponry and Soviet standard weaponry alongside each other. So building new or upgraded facilities only works if you have a long term commitment to this, money much better spent on producing and delivering western weapons to Ukraine ( or buying old eastern stocks around the world as a stopgap solution)

40 minutes ago, The Big Stink said:

Ukraine needs more soldiers. They have the hardware and tech they just need fresh bodies. I'm surprised there are not more volunteers. 

I am not. There’s no end in sight in this war. Little hope of winning or return home as a winner. Little hope of surviving if you’re a frontline soldier. And even if you survive to the end of the war, what will be left of Ukraine? Ruins, mines, unexploded ammo, destruction everywhere and a very uncertain future with Russia probably hell bent on its revanchist policy and a very reluctant NATO & EU. Add to the fact that Ukrainian birthrates have dwindled since 1990, while male mortality has increased leaving lots of families with just one male member ( and thus unwilling to sacrifice him). The salary is also comparably bad and training and equipment, while miles better than in Russia isn’t top notch either. The euphoria early in the war when both the prospect of victory as well as the threat of total defeat were much greater is gone after a relentless grind of more than two years, in which many soldiers didn’t really get much leave time or rotation either. The divisions within Ukrainian society are also starting to show up again… it’s easy for people in the safe west to say there should be more Ukrainians willing to fight, we aren’t the ones that are dying for us the war is something we occasionally watch on tv…and when it comes to hardware and tech, the west has been reluctant or unwilling to provide them, it was/is often too little, too late…

Edited April 26 by Bironic

[Kalbear]

Ukraine is pulling the Abrams out of front line duty because their niche is not sustainable while there are so many good drones out there.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

Quote

The proliferation of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection,” a senior defense official told reporters Thursday.

Quote

When you think about the way the fight has evolved, massed armor in an environment where unmanned aerial systems are ubiquitous can be at risk,” Grady told the AP in an interview this week, adding that tanks are still important.

“Now, there is a way to do it,” he said. “We’ll work with our Ukrainian partners, and other partners on the ground, to help them think through how they might use that, in that kind of changed environment now, where everything is seen immediately.”

 

[Werthead]

Apparently Ukraine has withdrawn some of its MBTs, including all of the Abrams, from the eastern front, where they were being targeted relentlessly by drones and were easily hit due to their low speed. Ukraine has switched to counter-drone operations and using much nimbler Bradleys instead.

Interesting signs of a Ukraine attack on Novoprokrovka, NE of Robotyne. They briefly took it in the autumn offensive last year but had to withdraw. Ukraine's air force - its main jets, not drones - have been pounding Russian positions in the town, suggesting Russian air defences in the wider area have been fully suppressed. Uncoincidentally, Ukrainian drones have been going bonkers hitting Buks and Pantsirs all along the front and Russia has pulled its S-300 and S-400 systems well back from the front, giving Ukraine's MiGs and Flankers (and any incoming aircraft cough) more room to operate. 

Spain and Greece have turned down requests for Patriots, Greece citing a threat from Türkiye (which other NATO countries have raised eyebrows over) and Spain, rather less convincingly, citing a threat from Morocco (which Morocco seems confused by).

An angry claim on Russian Telegram that the mobilised regiments of the Russian military from 2023 alone suffered over 35% casualties, maybe closer to 40%.

Edited April 26 by Werthead

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Apparently Ukraine has withdrawn some of its MBTs, including all of the Abrams, from the eastern front, where they were being targeted relentlessly by drones and were easily hit due to their low speed. Ukraine has switched to counter-drone operations and using much nimbler Bradleys instead.

Best to save them for a quick counteroffensive where they help punch through enemy lines. 

[Bironic]

2 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

Best to save them for a quick counteroffensive where they help punch through enemy lines. 

I don't really think that's a realistic option. Too many forms of static defense (Minefields, Trenches, Dragons teeth) combined with mass artillery, drones, manpads and air attacks...

[Werthead]

Impressive footage of the Su-25 attack on Novopokrovka, right on the very battle front.

Lots of people asking "where the fuck was Russia's air defence?" presumably starting with the Russians being bombarded.

 

[Bironic]

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Spain and Greece have turned down requests for Patriots, Greece citing a threat from Türkiye (which other NATO countries have raised eyebrows over) and Spain, rather less convincingly, citing a threat from Morocco (which Morocco seems confused by).

Spain is apparently willing to give Ukraine some Patriot missiles, not the launchers & systems, alongside other stuff like Leopard 2, IFVs, machine guns etc… one of their Patriot systems is currently located in Turkey on the border to Syria to defend against threats from there…Spain does have an ongoing conflict with Morocco about Ceuta, Melilla and some islands off the Moroccan coast, unlike Greece these territories are not covered by NATO Treaty, so they can’t call in Article 5 in case of an attack. The risk of Morocco launching airstrikes against them is rather minimal though IMHO, especially since people are dying in Ukraine…

Greece seems to be under a lot pressure by western leaders since  they both have S-300 and Patriot systems, so far they haven’t budged. 

Poland is another interesting case: they have 2 Patriot batteries located at the Ukrainian border to protect the border regions and logistical hubs from (accidental) attacks inside Poland (has happened before, resulting in the death of 2 polish citizens). Ukraine had asked if they can have one of those 2 systems and place it on their side of the border so it would cover both Poland and Ukraine. The Polish government has declined so far.

Turkey has some S-400 systems placed in storage due to the US pressure, maybe they can be convinced to hand them over to Ukraine in exchange for Patriots or something else that Erdogan desires…

[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit the Kushchyovskaya airbase in Krasnodar Krai with drones, destroying a stockpile of glide bombs. Several aircraft have been damaged, although it does not appear catastrophically.

The nearby Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery was also hit, causing quite a big fire.

Ukrainian Air Force attacks along the Robotyne front seem to be continuing. Russian AA seems to be wholly MIA on this sector.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has hit the Kushchyovskaya airbase in Krasnodar Krai with drones, destroying a stockpile of glide bombs. Several aircraft have been damaged, although it does not appear catastrophically.

The nearby Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery was also hit, causing quite a big fire.

Ukrainian Air Force attacks along the Robotyne front seem to be continuing. Russian AA seems to be wholly MIA on this sector.

Can we say the Ukrainians have Air Superiority over the Robotyne battlefield?

[Maithanet]

I think it's not so much air superiority as the Russians lack air superiority.  I imagine the Russians can still do glide bomb attacks as well.

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I think it's not so much air superiority as the Russians lack air superiority.  I imagine the Russians can still do glide bomb attacks as well.

I mean, not from Kushchyovskaya for a bit.

[Toth]

So I'm seeing reports that a Ukrainian Yak-52 trainer has shot down a Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone using its machine guns. That's old school, damn.

[Werthead]

Big Ukrainian hit on Crimea, missile and drone attacks on Chernomorksoye and Dzhankoy, along with targets outside Sevastopol. Doesn't seem anything major was hit, but smaller AA units on Cape Tarkhankut were knocked out with ATACMS. Some munition shoot-downs as well.

The 47th Mechanised Brigade is disputing that Abrams have been moved off the front lines.