Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Bironic]

Massive flooding along the Ural river (border between Asia and Europe) in Russia and Kazakhstan. 2 dams in Russia broke and the water is expected to continue to rise the next couple of days. One big oil refinery in Russia had to be shut down. Kazakhstan spoke of the biggest natural disaster in 80 years. 
 

The swiss federal government has agreed that NATO can open a bureau in Geneva to coordinate with the over 100 international organizations in the region (largest concentration of international organizations in the world). According to reliable Swiss media sources NATO wanted to open such an office for several years but was hindered by a single NATO member citing financial concerns…

Edited April 7 by Bironic

[Werthead]

Ukraine's precision targeting is getting seriously impressive. They tracked a Russian armoured convoy and hit it in the middle of a town when it made a gas stop. The gas station was partially destroyed, the vehicles totally and everything around it seemed to be untouched. Multiple KamAZ transports destroyed and a Tigr IMV.

Ukraine has deployed yet another new drone model, the OWA-UAV, which is an attack drone which is jet-powered. They used them to hit a series of targets in Belgorod Oblast. They travel far too low for S-300 or S-400 to be effective but far too fast to be easily shot down by Pantsir or standard anti-drone weapons. They're basically budget cruise missiles. Range is unknown at present.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

40 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine's precision targeting is getting seriously impressive. They tracked a Russian armoured convoy and hit it in the middle of a town when it made a gas stop. The gas station was partially destroyed, the vehicles totally and everything around it seemed to be untouched. Multiple KamAZ transports destroyed and a Tigr IMV.

Ukraine has deployed yet another new drone model, the OWA-UAV, which is an attack drone which is jet-powered. They used them to hit a series of targets in Belgorod Oblast. They travel far too low for S-300 or S-400 to be effective but far too fast to be easily shot down by Pantsir or standard anti-drone weapons. They're basically budget cruise missiles. Range is unknown at present.

 

SLAVA UKRAINI!!!

[Werthead]

Current figures suggesting that over 2,000 Russians were killed, wounded or captured in the last three days. Just relentless, pointless assaults on strongpoints located too far forwards (so Russian artillery support and glide bombs are not yet making their presence fully felt).

Possible Ukrainian counter-attack north of Avdiivka, looks like heavy engagements with Bradleys assaulting treelines and forcing Russian forces back before they could dig in. Interesting to see what's going on there.

Shahed drone attack on Ukraine last night, 100% interception rate, reportedly.

The IAE has criticised both sides for exchanging fire in the airspace over the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which has resulted in some damage to the outer shell of the reactors.

Russia reportedly low on drones, missiles and shells, and has asked Iran and North Korea for more. No sign yet they have been been able to deliver.

Some sources suggesting that the Iranian government warned Moscow of an ISIS attack on civilian targets in Russia over a week before the theatre attack last month.

The Serpukhov, a Russian Project-21631 missile destroyer, is reportedly out of operation due to an internal fire whilst based at Kaliningrad port. Apparently a pure accident with no outside agency blamed.

Huge protests in Orsk after flooding destroyed local homes. The governor was forced to meet with local representatives, but reportedly can do little as civil repair and maintenance funds have been diverted to other government projects (cough).

[Werthead]

Ukraine has confirmed one of its OWA-UAVs is officially called the "RAM X" but has been informally dubbed "Ukrolancet." They've gone on a spree with it in the last 48 hours or so, destroying 7 Russian SAM systems along the front.

The United States has given Ukraine over 5,000 weapons (machine guns and rocket launchers) and half a million rounds of ammunition seized from Iranian smugglers in the Red Sea, bound for the Houthis in Yemen.

Some suggestions that recent GUR attacks behind Russian lines were undertaken using US-donated Blackhawk helicopters, possibly modified by Ukraine to be much less visible to Russian radar. Impressive if true.

[Kalbear]

Interesting findings on how Russia is getting and using Starlink:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/04/report-details-how-russia-obtains-starlink-terminals-for-war-in-ukraine/

Quote

 

The Journal's new report states that "Ukrainian officials said they contacted SpaceX about Russian forces using Starlink terminals in Ukraine and that they are working together on a solution." The report also quotes US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb as saying that the US is "working with Ukraine and we're working with Starlink" on how to end Russian use of Starlink in Ukraine.

The RSF reportedly uses Starlink in fighting against government forces. "Sudanese military officials and unauthorized Starlink dealers said in interviews that Abdelrahim Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF's deputy commander, has overseen the purchase of hundreds of Starlink terminals from dealers in the United Arab Emirates," the WSJ report said.

 

 

[Werthead]

Ukraine flexing with its new "Ukrolancet" munitions. It destroyed an electronic warfare station 22km behind the front, a significant increase on current on drone ranges.

A Russian Mi-24 Hind was shot down over the Black Sea in a friendly fire incident. A Ka-27 was also destroyed in Crimea by long-range Ukrainian fire.

The infrastructure failures in Orsk have led to talk of Orenburg Oblast possibly seceding from the Russian Federation (!), with citizens furious that Crimea gets more money than they do. Orenburg borders Kazakhstan, with Bashkortostan and Tatarstan (which both have historically greater secessionist tendencies) to the north. I would not expect this to happen anytime soon.

A Russian drone construction and maintenance facility in occupied Kherson Oblast was blown up by a worker dropping a grenade he was trying to fit to an FPV drone. The initial explosion resulted in him losing his arm. The facility was evacuated as the rest caught fire and burned for two days.

Ukraine has requested seven Patriot batteries, believing this would secure airspace around Ukraine for some considerable time. The US is apparently unable to provide them, so other countries possessing the system are discussing what they can do.

[Werthead]

Something that might save Ukraine's arse whilst the US flails around is that Russia seems to be having real equipment shortages at key areas on the front. Apparently Russian forces have been ordered to retake Robotyne in armoured assaults despite their armour being obliterated in frontal attacks, so the last few waves of attacks have taken place in barely-armoured Ural-4320 transport truck charges across open ground, which have...not gone well (protip: if your upgunned T-72 can't achieve an objective, it's highly improbable a truck with some dudes on it will be able to achieve the same goal).

In the last four days, OSINT sources seem to agree that Russia has lost 6 Russian SAM systems, 32 artillery systems, 40 tanks, 51 IFVs, 14 APCs, 52 trucks, 10 UTVs, 43 cars, 9 EW systems, 2 comms systems, 2 engineering vehicles and 1 boat. 262 vehicles in total destroyed. This might be a record for any four-day period of the war, but people are checking that.

Russian officials are also apparently confused on their own mobilisation plans. The annual draft in May may be delayed until June or July, and the number of troops to be raised for combat operations is apparently being fiercely debated behind the scenes, due to growing disgruntlement about losses and casualties (it also sounds like the prisons have turned up the last recruits they're going to, so the next groups will need to be workers and students).

The EU Council has apparently provisionally agreed to pay for the extra Patriot systems that Ukraine has asked for, although the details are still being ironed out. 

Czech diplomacy has apparently resulted in the acquisition of yet more artillery ammunition from Serbia, India and Pakistan, despite their relative friendliness to Russia.

Perhaps factoring into that, the Indian government is apparently extremely unhappy with Russian "security companies" offering high pay for Indians to travel to Russia, where they are promptly pressganged and sent to the front line in Ukraine, with none of the expected money appearing. Several Indians have apparently fled the front and made their way to the Indian embassies in Minsk and Moscow where they were repatriated home.

Estonia is apparently considering joining an informal coalition of countries who are prepared to send engineers, technical trainers and non-combat personnel directly to Ukraine. This coalition would likely consist of France, the Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic and UK. Apparently this plan severely irritates Russia because it introduces a "grey zone" where the consequences of killing large numbers of NATO troops in a non-NATO country would be highly ambiguous, so Russia would probably avoid doing it.

There seems to be growing agreement that the threatened offensive towards Kharkiv is a bluff: Russia does not have enough forces on the Kursk-Belgorod axis to defend against Russian partisan attacks, let alone cross the heavily-defended border and advance the considerable distance towards Kharkiv. Russia's most likely next move is a major offensive action to secure Donetsk Oblast's borders and resecure Luhansk (in the face of some Ukrainian attacks in that sector recently), but it looks like even this will stretch their manpower. It's also worth noting that the 2021 Bakhmut offensive was supposed to deliver them both oblasts and so far it's taken two years to scratch forwards to take Avdiivka.

Future Russian success may depend on if they can continue to leverage glide bomb superiority; if Ukraine can deploy more Patriots and F-16s, that advantage may be eroded.

Edited April 11 by Werthead

[SeanF]

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Something that might save Ukraine's arse whilst the US flails around is that Russia seems to be having real equipment shortages at key areas on the front. Apparently Russian forces have been ordered to retake Robotyne in armoured assaults despite their armour being obliterated in frontal attacks, so the last few waves of attacks have taken place in barely-armoured Ural-4320 transport truck charges across open ground, which have...not gone well (protip: if your upgunned T-72 can't achieve an objective, it's highly improbable a truck with some dudes on it will be able to achieve the same goal).

In the last four days, OSINT sources seem to agree that Russia has lost 6 Russian SAM systems, 32 artillery systems, 40 tanks, 51 IFVs, 14 APCs, 52 trucks, 10 UTVs, 43 cars, 9 EW systems, 2 comms systems, 2 engineering vehicles and 1 boat. 262 vehicles in total destroyed. This might be a record for any four-day period of the war, but people are checking that.

Russian officials are also apparently confused on their own mobilisation plans. The annual draft in May may be delayed until June or July, and the number of troops to be raised for combat operations is apparently being fiercely debated behind the scenes, due to growing disgruntlement about losses and casualties (it also sounds like the prisons have turned up the last recruits they're going to, so the next groups will need to be workers and students).

The EU Council has apparently provisionally agreed to pay for the extra Patriot systems that Ukraine has asked for, although the details are still being ironed out. 

Czech diplomacy has apparently resulted in the acquisition of yet more artillery ammunition from Serbia, India and Pakistan, despite their relative friendliness to Russia.

Perhaps factoring into that, the Indian government is apparently extremely unhappy with Russian "security companies" offering high pay for Indians to travel to Russia, where they are promptly pressganged and sent to the front line in Ukraine, with none of the expected money appearing. Several Indians have apparently fled the front and made their way to the Indian embassies in Minsk and Moscow where they were repatriated home.

Estonia is apparently considering joining an informal coalition of countries who are prepared to send engineers, technical trainers and non-combat personnel directly to Ukraine. This coalition would likely consist of France, the Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic and UK. Apparently this plan severely irritates Russia because it introduces a "grey zone" where the consequences of killing large numbers of NATO troops in a non-NATO country would be highly ambiguous, so Russia would probably avoid doing it.

There seems to be growing agreement that the threatened offensive towards Kharkiv is a bluff: Russia does not have enough forces on the Kursk-Belgorod axis to defend against Russian partisan attacks, let alone cross the heavily-defended border and advance the considerable distance towards Kharkiv. Russia's most likely next move is a major offensive action to secure Donetsk Oblast's borders and resecure Luhansk (in the face of some Ukrainian attacks in that sector recently), but it looks like even this will stretch their manpower. It's also worth noting that the 2021 Bakhmut offensive was supposed to deliver them both oblasts and so far it's taken two years to scratch forwards to take Avdiivka.

Future Russian success may depend on if they can continue to leverage glide bomb superiority; if Ukraine can deploy more Patriots and F-16s, that advantage may be eroded.

Has Ukraine yet received the artillery shells that the Czechs sourced?

Edited April 12 by SeanF

[Corvinus85]

There have been many US veterans who went to fight for Ukraine. Now one has gone to fight for Russia. And of course, he's a pedo. https://apnews.com/article/us-military-veteran-charged-russia-ukraine-60afee11f686c29ccf5f5e28b9243a2d

Quote

A U.S. Air Force veteran who fled a charge of possessing sexually explicit images of a child told his lawyer he joined Russia’s army, and video appears to show him signing documents in a military enlistment office in Siberia.

 

[Bironic]

5 hours ago, SeanF said:

Has Ukraine yet received the artillery shells that the Czechs sourced?

AFAIK they are scheduled to arrive in June…

[SpaceChampion]

49 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

There have been many US veterans who went to fight for Ukraine. Now one has gone to fight for Russia. And of course, he's a pedo. https://apnews.com/article/us-military-veteran-charged-russia-ukraine-60afee11f686c29ccf5f5e28b9243a2d

 

Send in the U.S. Army Rangers to capture and extract him and extradite to face justice.  With Ukrainian permission of course.

[Werthead]

Britain is sending freaking laser weapons to Ukraine. Unclear if they are being sent alongside or separately to the sharks.

(No, seriously, Britain is sending DragonFire laser-AA systems to Ukraine for field-testing) 

Russian police officers broken into the home of Manas Zholdoshbekov, an advisor to the Kyrgyz Embassy in Moscow, and beat his wife when he was unable to produce documents on his migration status, instead producing his diplomatic credentials which they seemed confused by. Kyrgyzstan has filed an official complaint with the Russian government.

A former Ukrainian intelligence officer who defected to Russia has been assassinated in Moscow.

Lukashenko has extended an offer to Ukraine to discuss peace terms. Ukraine has ignored him.

One drone team operating near the front destroyed ten Russian tanks in one night using a number of low-cost munitions attached to cheap drones, halting a Russian offensive. This is probably one of the attacks previously reported.

Russians in flooded areas have requested more money and infrastructure support. The Russian government agreed to provide a light aircraft so some priests could fly around the area and "prayer-bomb" it from up high. Subsequent flooding suggested this tactic has been ineffective.

7 hours ago, SeanF said:

Has Ukraine yet received the artillery shells that the Czechs sourced?

Officially the delivery will not be completed until June, but unofficially some have been sent and more will be sent over the coming weeks. They're obviously not putting 1 million shells in the same delivery and sending them along, the Amazon delivery guys got annoyed last time they tried that.

[Werthead]

Germany has sent an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine, apparently already on its way. One additional Patriot battery has been secured in principle and the details are now being worked out.

Ukraine has apparently launched a series of attacks on Berdychi, driving back Russian forces holding several strongpoints. Not a major victory but a constant way of keeping Russian forces off-balance and not allow them to dig in.

A Russian Storm Z unit has published an angry complaint that recent Russian personnel and equipment losses are unsustainable and poisonous to morale. However, Russia has had some localised successes based on meatgrinder attacks so these are being intensified. They have attributed these successes to Ukrainian firepower deficiencies, so when those new shells and weapons arrive, Russian losses could escalate horrendously. Recent casualties have been back in the 800-900 per day range even with Ukrainian weaknesses in weapons supply.

A Chinese political analyst working at Beijing University has been allowed to post an article claiming that Russia will lose the war in a major way and that conflict has strained Russo-Sino relations. Interesting why that was permitted.

 

[ThinkerX]

I saw a blurb about Russia losing a thousand troops yesterday.

 

I have also been seeing references to Russian talking heads on their state media alternately threatening to nuke Western Europe and conquer Finland and Poland (though they are seen as 'dirty' and will require 'cleaning.'  Additionally, they want to lay claim to Alaska, Hawaii, and California, though this was dismissed as wishful thinking. And I thought FOX news was out of touch with reality.

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

Germany has sent an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine, apparently already on its way. One additional Patriot battery has been secured in principle and the details are now being worked out.

Ukraine has apparently launched a series of attacks on Berdychi, driving back Russian forces holding several strongpoints. Not a major victory but a constant way of keeping Russian forces off-balance and not allow them to dig in.

A Russian Storm Z unit has published an angry complaint that recent Russian personnel and equipment losses are unsustainable and poisonous to morale. However, Russia has had some localised successes based on meatgrinder attacks so these are being intensified. They have attributed these successes to Ukrainian firepower deficiencies, so when those new shells and weapons arrive, Russian losses could escalate horrendously. Recent casualties have been back in the 800-900 per day range even with Ukrainian weaknesses in weapons supply.

A Chinese political analyst working at Beijing University has been allowed to post an article claiming that Russia will lose the war in a major way and that conflict has strained Russo-Sino relations. Interesting why that was permitted.

 

I think that Russia has already lost, at a strategic level.  The costs, in terms of loss of men, equipment, control of the Black Sea, foreign exchange reserves, loss of prestige, far outweigh the gain of some devastated provinces.  At the same time, NATO  has gained two new members, and has been revitalised. 

[Werthead]

Serbia has dropped all plans to buy Russian fighter jets, citing the sanctions regime making it impossible. They had been urged by Moscow to "wait out" the sanctions but the Serbian government has decided they can't afford to wait. Instead, they have ordered twelve Rafale fighters from France.

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Serbia has dropped all plans to buy Russian fighter jets, citing the sanctions regime making it impossible. They had been urged by Moscow to "wait out" the sanctions but the Serbian government has decided they can't afford to wait. Instead, they have ordered twelve Rafale fighters from France.

Are citing sanctions an excuse to not say Russian armaments are not really that good?

[Werthead]

46 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Are citing sanctions an excuse to not say Russian armaments are not really that good?

Serbia in general seems to be doing a thing of saying whatever Russia is doing is fine but then the government does things which seem to indicate they don't think what Russia is doing is fine, but they can't say so without pissing off too much street opinion. Bit weird, but I suppose better than the alternatives.

Serbia has been doing this for a while, they were in talks with Russia about buying S300 and S400 AA systems, but eventually realised that they were a bit antiquated at this point and bought a bunch of Chinese AA systems instead.

[Zorral]

This article illustrates, again, how the Ukraine war, on the Ukraine side, is quite different from how contemporary powers have conducted their colonial wars, i.e. Ukraine unlike Russia is not engaged in a grab for territory and resources.

What it means when the mercenaries appear
Elliot Ackerman’s new novel is “2054,” written with retired Adm. James Stavridis. This piece is adapted from an essay in the spring 2024 issue of Liberties, a journal of culture and politics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/15/liberties-mercenaries-wagner-group-warfighting/

Quote

.... This was the strategy of “Vietnamization,” which sought to bolster the South Vietnamese military. In Iraq, this was the “surge” and the “Sunni Awakening,” in which U.S. forces doubled down on training the Iraqi military while co-opting Sunni militias once loyal to al-Qaeda. In Afghanistan, it was a second surge and reinvestment in the Afghan National Army. What these examples all have in common is an American method of warfare that shifts the burden to an indigenous force, allowing American troops to withdraw. It also shifts the conditions of victory, which is less defined by conditions on the battlefield. Victory today is defined — this is an extraordinary development — by outsourcing the prosecution of a war and bringing our troops home. ....

Quote

 

.... The war in Ukraine began as a mercenary war. When Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014, the invading soldiers wore no Russian military insignia, causing many to refer to them as “little green men.” The explicit appearance of Russian soldiers would have cost Russian President Vladimir Putin more politically than he was willing to accept. In the eyes of the international community, as well as in the eyes of his citizens, there was value in deniability. Putin needed to launder his activities in Ukraine. Mercenary armies are very good at such laundering.

To lead this mercenary venture, Putin made an unlikely choice: Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a coarse former restaurateur known as “Putin’s Chef.” Backed by cadres of battle-tested field commanders, Prigozhin helped found the Wagner Group in 2014 and presided over its rapid expansion. Between 2014 and 2021, Wagner mercenaries delivered many thousands of Russian boots on the ground in places where no Russian boots should have been — Libya, Ukraine, Sudan, Mali, Venezuela, the Central African Republic and directly against American troops in Syria in February 2018. All this while the Kremlin denied Wagner’s involvement and, in some cases, its existence. ....

 

 

On 4/12/2024 at 4:35 AM, SeanF said:

Has Ukraine yet received the artillery shells that the Czechs sourced?

Sean -- I sent the full text of the piece to you via private message, thinking lots of bits in it would be of interest to you -- not necessarily informing you -- unlikely! -- but still of interest.  It goes rather well, too, in places with Brett D's latest entries.

 

Edited April 15 by Zorral