Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Bironic]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

https://prospect.org/infrastructure/transportation/2024-03-28-suicide-mission-boeing/

JAN 20, 2023

Ukraine: Under the Counter

In the weeks following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a young doctor in Germany sees that abortion pills are urgently needed in Ukraine. And she wants to help. But getting the drugs into the country means going through Poland, which has some of the strictest abortion laws in Europe. So, she gets creative. What unfolds is a high-stakes, covert-operation run by a group of strangers. With everyone deciding: who to trust? In collaboration with NPR’s Rough Translation (https://zpr.io/9UpCwb2Smjzw), we find out what happened. 

https://radiolab.org/podcast/ukraine-under-counter

FEB 3, 2023

Ukraine: The Handoff

We continue the story of a covert smuggling operation to bring abortion pills into Ukraine, shortly after the Russian invasion. In this episode, reporters Katz Laszlo and Gregory Warner go to Ukraine, landing on a fall night during a citywide blackout, to pick up the trail of the pills and find out about the doctors and patients who needed them. But as they follow the pills around the country, what they learn changes their understanding of how we talk about these pills, and how we talk about choice, in a war. 

This episode is the second of two done in collaboration with NPR’s Rough Translation. You can find the first episode here (https://zpr.io/CnmNVFQ6X5gc).

https://radiolab.org/podcast/ukraine-handoff
 

Yes there were also some issues with Ukrainian refugees in Poland wanting an abortion which they didn’t know was illegal in Poland, but perfectly legal in Ukraine (and most of Europe, with a few exceptions such as Malta, Vatican City, or the Italian abortion „deserts“) … 

[Werthead]

Huh, the "DPR" 1st Army Corps, 98th Separate Infantry Regiment of the 2nd Infantry Brigade, has mutinied. They refused to continue assaults on Semenivka, citing that their unit had suffered catastrophic losses and only 15 people remained in the unit. They have now been relieved of their weapons, arrested and accused of desertion.

Zelensky has suggested intelligence that Russia's next target may be Kazakhstan rather than the Baltics. Interesting, as anti-Kazakhstan rhetoric was extremely heated about a year ago but it got turned down, apparently after public Chinese statements of support for Kazakhstan's independence.

[Werthead]

Russia launched one of its largest offensives since Avdiivka on Saturday, advancing a large number of vehicles west of Tonenke, Donetsk Oblast. They ran straight into a Ukrainian ambush and were forced to retreat with heavy losses. Ukraine did the old "blow up the first tank in the convoy trick" to logjam the formation. This didn't work as efficiently as in urban areas because the Russians were able to fan out into the countryside, although Ukraine had mined some of the area. Current tally seems to be seven tanks and IFVs destroyed, possibly more.

A Russian cruise missile malfunctioned mid-flight yesterday and landed nearly in Krasnoarmeysk, Saratov Oblast in Russia. It managed to miss the urban area and hit a field instead.

Edited April 1 by Werthead

[Kalbear]

More reporting on that attack.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/31/the-russian-army-just-launched-the-biggest-tank-assault-of-the-war/?sh=440140436e67

[Corvinus85]

Don't be suspicious!!!

 

[Kalbear]

We all hate it when that asshole helicopter parks in the designated handicapped airplane spot

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

Don't be suspicious!!!

 

Spring is in the air!

Bucks are mating with the does, stallions are covering the mares, and the Mi-5s are atop the Su-30s.

[Werthead]

It looks like a similar but smaller armoured attack was launched at Novomykhailivka with similar results to Tonenke.

Ukraine has hit the main Shahed production facility in Tatarstan, over 1200km from Ukrainian territory. Only a barracks was destroyed in the attack, with the main production facilities only temporarily shut down, but reportedly the workers (a lot of African and Indian workers, apparently) are now less keen on working there. Some reports that they might now have to move the facility further away from Ukraine as clearly Ukraine's drone attack range is increasing in leaps and bounds.

The Nizhnekamsk refinery has also been hit hard.

The drone used at the Shahed factory seems to be a light aircraft converted into a kamikaze bomb.

 

Edited April 2 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

If Mathias Rust could fly a Cessna 172 across the Iron Curtain and into Red Square during the height of the cold war, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch for the now-highly-experienced drone experts in Ukraine to rig up a 172 or 152 with radio controls or whatever they are using for their long-range drones.  Russia today likely possesses only a moth-eaten shell of whatever air defense coverage the Soviet Union operated in 1987.

Fill it with a couple suitcases full of explosives, and Bob's your uncle.

[Bironic]

Ukraine signed a new law lowering the age for military conscription from 27 to 25 and reducing the time of service from unlimited to 36 months. I wonder what they do when this war continues after 36 months…?
People that do not comply can have their bank accounts and drivers licenses frozen. These measures are expected to give the Ukrainian military up to 400‘000 additional men. 

Russia has changed the leader of the Black Sea fleet and the navy (for how many times now?!)… btw has the admiral that supposedly survived last years storm shadow attack on the HQ ever been spotted again?

UK and Ukraine believe that Russia recruits around 30000 men per month, and they have started the regular spring conscription for individuals between 18-30, apparently up to 150000 men, these are not to be sent to Ukraine, but I assume some of them will be „convinced“ one way or another…

Perun made two interesting videos about the global arms industry: unsurprisingly Russia has lost massively, both orders and deliveries have basically collapsed since 2022 (a trend that started in 2014), while the US have skyrocketed, with South Korea, Turkey, Israel and a number of European nations such as France doing well too. Among the European nations only the swiss arms industry seems to have suffered a significant reduction..

 

Edited April 3 by Bironic

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, Bironic said:

Ukraine signed a new law lowering the age for military conscription from 27 to 25 and reducing the time of service from unlimited to 36 months. I wonder what they do when this war continues after 36 months…?

Possibly the Ukrainian leadership believes Russia will be unable to continue the war by that time - especially if they keep blowing up Russian oil refineries and the 'Russian Rebels' make a big enough pain of themselves.

[The Big Stink]

In March alone, Russian terrorists used over 400 missiles of various types, 600 "Shahed" drones, and over 3,000 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine. This terror is wreaking havoc on cities and villages throughout Ukraine, and Russia is particularly relentless in bombarding frontline and border areas.

Kharkiv, has been subjected to missile and drone strikes since the full-scale war began. Recently, Russian terrorists also began to use aerial bombs against Kharkiv. The city sees daily humiliation and pain, as well as daily losses. Critical infrastructure has been destroyed, and ordinary residential buildings are being demolished on a daily basis.

None of this will be possible IF Ukraine receives reliable air defense systems capable of saving lives and restoring security to our cities. "Patriots" in the hands of Ukrainians have demonstrated that all forms of Russian terror can be defeated.

If you are not holding your elected officials accountable regarding this, you are part of the problem.

[Makk]

15 hours ago, Bironic said:

Ukraine signed a new law lowering the age for military conscription from 27 to 25 and reducing the time of service from unlimited to 36 months. I wonder what they do when this war continues after 36 months…?

This was described as rotation, those who were originally called up can be called up again after 3 years. 

[Werthead]

The Nevinnomyssky Azot petrochemical complex in Stavropol Krai, just north of Georgia, has caught fire.

Another TOS-1 thermobaric launcher destroyed in the field.

A third major Russian armoured push, this time at Terny, between Kreminna and Lyman. This looks like an attempt to reverse Ukrainian gains a few weeks ago on the SW and NW approaches to the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. This fared as well as those pushes.

Ukraine has fielded a series of new drones, including some with a range of 1,000km, with statements that 1,200km drones are currently testing and should be operational in a matter of months. Shorter-range drones are also now operating carrying AT PG-7VL HEAT warheads that are bigger than the drone itself. Ukraine is also making greater use of thermobaric suicide drones.

Javelin is back in vogue all along the front, with Ukraine switching to using ambush tactics. Some suggestion this is to preserve artillery ammunition for a possible "spoiling" push in the next couple of months that diverts Russian material from a possible summer offensive.

Estonia has reported that it has sourced 800,000 rounds of additional artillery ammunition on top of the 1 million sourced by the Czech Republic a couple of months ago. This supply consists of 155mm, 152mm and 122mm shells and 122mm rockets, and would allow Ukraine to restock a greater variety of offensive equipment.

There's also unconfirmed reports of a British initiative which may locate 300,000-500,000 shells in the near future, and a major Greek effort as well.

In total, Estonia is estimating that Ukraine should receive over 2.5 million shells this year, which should lift it over the danger zone for offensive use, and towards the figure where a new offensive could be sustained.

Germany has also confirmed that around 12,000 shells no longer deemed to be in their operational lifespan have been shipped to Ukraine. Not a load, but every little helps.

Russia has been celebrating the one-year anniversary of the "liberation" of Soledar by saying it is far too dangerous to actually inhabit and if you go outside you will almost certainly die thanks to FPV drones.

Ukrainian intelligence has said it plans to target the Kerch Strait Bridge again in the near future (possibly a psyop to get Russia to redeploy assets to the bridge area).

[Werthead]

One of the largest Ukrainian drone strikes of the war. 40 drones hit Morozovsk Airbase, destroying "several" aircraft. Morozvsk is a hub for Su-34s, which are the primary launch platform for glide bombs which have been hitting Ukraine hard in recent months. The attack was prolonged and concerted. 36 Su-34s were based at the airfield earlier this week.

Some of the drones were apparently "jammed" and fell to the ground, but exploded upon recovery.

I'm assuming this is bullshit, but different sources saying some of the drones had speakers and were playing German drinking songs as they approached the base, which is...okay?

[Maithanet]

27 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm assuming this is bullshit, but different sources saying some of the drones had speakers and were playing German drinking songs as they approached the base, which is...okay?

That sounds more like a movie than a real war.  A speaker big enough that it could be heard from the ground would need to be pretty big and have a significant power source, which adds a lot of weight.  And for what?  The cool story?  Not many people would even hear it; if you're under drone attack people have a tendency to go inside ASAP. 

Unless it's possible those are decoy drones and the speakers just make it easier to find them?  But AA defenses don't key on sound, so again, what is the point? 

[Bironic]

52 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm assuming this is bullshit, but different sources saying some of the drones had speakers and were playing German drinking songs as they approached the base, which is...okay?

I would have preferred if the I assume russian sources said that the Ukrainians played another german classic: Ride of the Valkyries by Richard Wagner, a wellknown antisemite and Nazi-Precursor... it would fit the propaganda better...

And it would be much more Hollywood as well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn37QfXw1-E

Edited April 5 by Bironic

[Werthead]

The early report from Morozovsk is that 14 aircraft were destroyed, although Ukraine is so far dividing them into 6 destroyed and 8 "severely damaged" and may not be able to fly again (the distinction is unclear, although perhaps the latter can be salvaged for parts).

14 Russian aircraft destroyed in one attack would I think be the Russian Air Force's worst defeat since early in World War II. And most of these seem to be Su-34s, one of the most advanced aircraft in Russia's inventory, and the main carrier for the glide bomb attacks.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has captured a Russian "drone jammer," a T-72B3 equipped with multiple antennas designed to shut down drones operating in a wide area around the vehicle. Apparently the jammer appears to be 1) ineffective against modern drone frequencies and 2) so energy-intensive the battery attached to it can't keep it going for more than a couple of hours, if that.

Meanwhile, the Azovproduct oil terminal in Azov was attacked in a Ukrainian special forces operation (which is raising some eyebrows) rather than a drone strike. The pipeline connecting the storage facility to the loading area was severed, apparently something difficult to repair easily. Ukrainian ground special forces strikes on Russian soil (as opposed to Crimea or behind lines in occupied Ukraine) have been rare in the conflict so far.

The timeline for F-16s arriving in Ukraine appears to be narrowing to around July-August. It's unclear how the F-16s are getting to Ukraine given Russian bellicosity if they are flown straight in, but with NATO able to futz radar over the border area from Poland, it's unclear if Russia would even know. Also, Russia has bitched about attacks from NATO airfields on Russia, but if the F-16s are flown from NATO airspace to Ukraine, and then deployed exclusively from Ukrainian airfields, that's a different matter. It should be noted that Ukraine is now flying some aircraft from the western border airfields to other countries for cargo purposes on a semi-regular basis, so far without Russian interception.

Another possibility is they are driven over the border on trucks, although how that would work is unclear; when F-16s are transported by road normally, they have to have the wings removed (obviously), and you can't just bolt them back on like an Ikea flatpack.

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

...Meanwhile, the Azovproduct oil terminal in Azov was attacked in a Ukrainian special forces operation (which is raising some eyebrows) rather than a drone strike. The pipeline connecting the storage facility to the loading area was severed, apparently something difficult to repair easily. Ukrainian ground special forces strikes on Russian soil (as opposed to Crimea or behind lines in occupied Ukraine) have been rare in the conflict so far...

This strike is very impressive, since that is:

• behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine, then
• behind enemy-controlled naval area in the Sea of Azov, then
• Inside the borders of Russia itself.

Reaching out and touching a location like that takes some serious skills.

Drive or fly through occupied territory, then possibly across or over occupied sea lanes, then over or across enemy sovereign territory.  Then return home.