How is Daenerys going to supply her army during the Invasion of Westeros?

[Craving Peaches]

11 hours ago, frenin said:

She should leave everything to help Westeros, ignoring Astapor, for whatever length of time is necessary to help defeat the Others but after she's bled... she should pack to Essos, with a much diminished army

I never said she should leave everything. I said that she should not stay permanently in Westeros because it could lead to an Astapor-like situation in Essos undoing all her anti-slavery work there, and that prioritising Westeros over Essos because of her desire for the throne, despite knowing what happened when she left Astapor, being confronted with the fact that there is no big pro-Targaryen movement amongst the smallfolk, and the food supply issue would be more villainous, because she is placing her personal desires above the good of other people - this is something that Daenerys has tended to avoid so far. Of course, this is based on my belief that Daenerys would not be able to effectively administer a kingdom that spanned both Westeros and Essos due to logistics.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I said that she should not stay permanently in Westeros because it could lead to an Astapor-like situation in Essos undoing all her anti-slavery work there

If she leaves for Westeros in order to help them, she's risking that same thing again.

 

 

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

and that prioritising Westeros over Essos because of her desire for the throne, despite knowing what happened when she left Astapor, being confronted with the fact that there is no big pro-Targaryen movement amongst the smallfolk, and the food supply issue would be more villainous, because she is placing her personal desires above the good of other people -

I suppose the answer to this has already been said but i agree with what's been written.

Lords and smallfolk alike can choose her as ruler and demand her protection or they can reject her and do their own thing.

But the belief that they ought to get the best of both worlds because Westerosi are so cool is baffling. It is not villanous for Dany to claim the throne after risking everything to save the continent, another matter entirely is whether her quest in Essos could survive without her but depending the casualties she suffers, she might need Westerosi help to keep her victories in the East anyway.

But it's absolutely hilarious to expect someone to die for you and then, after they have saved you, claim you don't even like them in the first place so they can go now...

[Craving Peaches]

16 minutes ago, frenin said:

If she leaves for Westeros in order to help them, she's risking that same thing again.

That depends on what the 'help' constitutes. The issue re Astapor was that most/all of the cities soldiers seem to have left with Daenerys and that the council she put in charge had no way to project powers. If Daenerys leaves enough soldiers behind, she should be able to prevent/forestall an Astapor scenario. The reason it is important that she comes back is to implement a system to replace slavery. Without a suitable replacement, the region will just revert to slavery again and the only difference will be who is enslaved.

So obviously if Daenerys took all possible troops and dragons that would be undesirable (not to mention the supply issue). But say one dragon and a couple of thousand troops, should be good.

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

But it's absolutely hilarious to expect someone to die for you and then, after they have saved you, claim you don't even like them in the first place so they can go now...

I am saying that I think based on Daenerys' character she would want to save people without having a reward offered/people demanding she come and save them, based on her wanting to save innocents she would be likely to go, since that is why she is in Slaver's Bay in the first place - the slaves did not offer her anything to free them. Yes it would be really stupid for people in Westeros to demand she helped and then offer nothing in return, or to offer a reward then withdraw it after she saved them. I didn't intend to suggest this.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

But it's absolutely hilarious to expect someone to die for you and then, after they have saved you, claim you don't even like them in the first place so they can go now...

As I said, I could see them doing that.  Hugely resenting the fact that a woman and her “savages” played a big part in their survival, and absolutely preferring a male claimant.

”No good deed goes unpunished, no act of charity unresented.”  There are people who hate to feel beholden.

What was truly bizarre about the show was to present such an outlook as  reasonable. The narrative was that it was awfully selfish of Daenerys to expect anything in return for using her armies against the Dead and Cersei;  that of course the North deserved independence under Sansa;  and that Jon, not she, was the rightful ruler.

[Protagoras]

We need to start some sort of "What If" scenario here. "What if Daenerys never go to Westeros" or something similiar and then ask ourselves the question - would such a choice likely mean a better outcome for Daenerys. Not for Westeros. Not for the Starks. Not even for the World. But for Daenerys. What should she do in order to maximize her own outcome and at the same time minimize any risk to her life, her vision and her future for both herself and House Targaryen?

For me the data strongly points toward "Stay in Essos". Or to be more specific - Take control over Slaver's bay  and slowly expand your empire. Find a husband that you like, get as many kids as possible, conserve your military forces and take few risks with them, raise and train your dragons without regard to possible innocent casualties, promote freedom of speech and freedom for the slaves in general, but kill those that oppose you as violently as possible. 

Any other takers?

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

3 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

For me the data strongly points toward "Stay in Essos". Or to be more specific - Take control over Slaver's bay  and slowly expand your empire. Find a husband that you like, get as many kids as possible, conserve your military forces and take few risks with them, raise and train your dragons without regard to possible innocent casualties, promote freedom of speech and freedom for the slaves in general, but kill those that oppose you as violently as possible. 

Had me in the first half

Quote

but kill those that oppose you as violently as possible. 

Can you please elaborate on this? Opposition comes in many forms, most of which do not warrant a violent response. Is this in regard to slavery specifically, or just opposing Daenerys in general?

Edited April 30 by Ser Arthurs Dawn

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Can you please elaborate on this? Opposition comes in many forms, most of which do not warrant a violent response. Is this in regard to slavery specifically, or just opposing Daenerys in general?

Sure.

It's in regard to the institutions of Slaver's Bay. Daenerys has turned up their way of living completely and because of this there will be quite a lot of backlash. Some violent, some non-violent. But all of it is insincere - the former elite in the region does not really have, apart from a few individuals, the will to change. Because if they had they would have done it years ago by themselves. So instead, since they realize they can't win this with force they spend their time with false "compromises" and an appeal toward moderatism. Because all they want is to slow down or stop Daenerys reforms and they have no real intention to act reasonable - they just pretend until they see a violent solution or if they are able to water-down the change enough. Indeed - this is exactly what we see in Meereen. I would argue that more of the opposition that you think requires violence to be dealt with. Or rather - that violence is always a last resort. Daenerys dragons are her "final argument" so to speak and they should be used as one.  

So what I am suggesting is this - those that take up arms and/or provoke Daenerys should be slain. Violently. The cruxification of the masters should be seen as a positive example here. They did a violent murderous action clearly meant to provoke - and they got served with the same thing back. Very much good justice. Hell, you can even argue that Daenerys were too lenient. Apart from the deaths they also should pay an extra price for acting in this manner in the first place. That should be a 100 or more extra deaths she should have ordered. Anyway, those that constantly try to moderate the revolution should be removed from power and their institutions should be removed or changed if they do not want to play ball. Green Grace is a good example - she is clearly the Harpy and while she acts in public reasonably, this is a front. She has no interest in actually cooperating and acts in secret violently against Daenerys. She should therefore be killed and the institution of Graces should be presented with an ultimatum. Change, die or leave. And if they choose to change this should be evaluated. Maybe let the state (ie Daenerys) choose who gets promoted and not the temples themselves.

But how about non-violent people who are not having a dual persona? Ok, let's take Reznak for example. He is clearly a representative of the old elite who only tends to speak up when some of said elite get an "unfair" treatment. He is clearly unsuitable for the job. He should be removed and replaced. As should anyone else who refuses to bow down to Daenerys new Meereen system. We need new people in the mid-tier of the government too. Their competence is secondary to their zeal, in the same way that South got (waaaaay to light) reconstruction after the civil war. And any kind of violent attacks from anti-establishment groups should be met with force. And I see no problem with the torture of the winesellers daughter either. Sure, you can ask her sweetly at first but if that does not yield results...And the child hostages should have been executed for sure. Or not been taken in the first place. Pick one. The point is that the innocent suffering that Daenerys is bringing is insignificant in comparison with the old regime. Yes, kids like Hazzea will die. What of it? People who want unbloody revolutions are either delusional or anti-revolution. 

And taxes, we should not forget taxes. The economic power of the formers slavers have to be removed and there needs to be a MASSIVE property tax that will need to be redistributed among the populace. In short - no leniency. All of this should also, if necessary, be backed by military might. If the Pahls refuse to pay up...well, then its dragon chow time. Again, violence doesn´t have to be used, but has to be a final resort if words fail. You can protest all you like about the reforms, but they will still happen - with consent or not. And if a Meereen resident is not ok by that, yet do nothing about it violence are not needed. But if the resident do something about it...well, then its time for some more cruxifications maybe. Or dragon dinner. Or something else equally spectacular. 

So basically Daenerys should do what the Shavepate is suggesting, but say 70% of it. He is slightly too brutal.

[Mithras]

Dany will NOT fight the Others 

[House Cambodia]

9 hours ago, Protagoras said:

We need to start some sort of "What If" scenario here. "What if Daenerys never go to Westeros" or something similiar and then ask ourselves the question - would such a choice likely mean a better outcome for Daenerys. Not for Westeros. Not for the Starks. Not even for the World. But for Daenerys.

I think you're looking at it from the wrong angle here. GRRM set it up from Daenerys 1, Game of Thrones that she goes to Westeros. It'd been a given from her first chapter to her last. No way does the author suddenly change track. Who gets what out of it is a legitimate discussion, but to suggest that it never happens makes no narrative sense whatsoever.

[KingoftheRiversandtheHills]

Depends on what she will do before she invades Westeros. Will she make more allies? Will she make friends with Aegon/fAegon and be supported by Illyrio Mopatis? From where will she invade? How many people will die in the wars? Will she make friends with the Tyrells? What's the situation with Volantis (It seems like a couple people already answered that one)? 

[Protagoras]

10 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I think you're looking at it from the wrong angle here. GRRM set it up from Daenerys 1, Game of Thrones that she goes to Westeros. It'd been a given from her first chapter to her last. No way does the author suddenly change track. Who gets what out of it is a legitimate discussion, but to suggest that it never happens makes no narrative sense whatsoever.

OF COURSE I am looking at it from the wrong angle. I am very aware how Daenerys arc has been set up. She will go to Westeros to reclaim her throne. I am simply suggesting a thought experiment, a "what if" scenario as I said to improve Daenerys chances of survival and to accomplish her goal since GRRM scripted story will most likely end with her death and some bs about "the heart in conflict with itself" or "choosing war" or some other nonsense.

This is more an attempt to improve on the work or at least present an option. A "death of the author" if you will. I reject the notion that the writer's idea about his own work is more valid than my own interpretation. I wouldn´t even call it "fan fiction" - more "smart fiction", because it's more about making smart choices and logical improvements rather than wish-fulfillment.

So, what choices should Daenerys make in order to improve her outcome? For me, she should stay in Meereen and refuse to partake in GRRMs stupid plot, just like Quentin was murdered by the author and was forced to partake in a story he had no interested in being a part of in the first place. But I am interesting in alternate ways for Daenerys to maximize her own outcome and at the same time minimize any risk to her life, her vision and her future for both herself and House Targaryen. You have any suggestions?

[Angel Eyes]

11 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I think you're looking at it from the wrong angle here. GRRM set it up from Daenerys 1, Game of Thrones that she goes to Westeros. It'd been a given from her first chapter to her last. No way does the author suddenly change track. Who gets what out of it is a legitimate discussion, but to suggest that it never happens makes no narrative sense whatsoever.

"On second thought, let's not go to Westeros. 'tis a silly place."

I've also pointed out that it would be like Martin to pull a twist that nobody saw coming.

Edited May 1 by Angel Eyes

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

@Protagorashey thank you so much!  

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

"On second thought, let's not go to Westeros. 'tis a silly place."

I've also pointed out that it would be like Martin to pull a twist that nobody saw coming.

That would certainly jive with his comments the books will end differently than the series did.

[Mad King Bolton]

Westeros has had an exceptional amount of war lately and scorched earth tactics on display. If not for that they’d be fine. Essos is fine except around Mereen. If Dany is coming west, it would be on the condition she has sorted things out and likely gotten her supply line in order and support from the free cities, at least pentos from how the story has been shaping up. So good supplies should be coming with her. 
winter storms, pirates, and iron islanders could be an issue to that though. 
once on land and advancing in-land there would be less to forage, but if anything Dany having a supply line from Essos makes sense as part of her invasion plan if she’s bringing food to help the issue in Westeros. A great way to make allies and get some love. 

[Ring3r]

On 4/26/2024 at 1:14 PM, Craving Peaches said:

This is a massive issue for her potential invasion and I don't really see how she can resolve it.

1. There is not enough food left in Westeros for Daenerys to supply her army via foraging/using reserves. It is pointed out numerous times that the food supplies remaining in Westeros are inadequate to feed everyone already there, so there is no way they can feed even more people coming later. This issue will be compounded by the size of the army Daenerys is aiming to bring. Not to mention all the difficulties that come with a regular winter. Then we have to factor in that it will probably be supernaturally cold, icy etc.

2. Daenerys cannot just ship food from Essos in as some people have suggested. First of all, there is a food shortage in all the territories she currently controls as well. Secondly, even is we assume she takes control of territories that have food/are growing food, she cannot just start taking food from there to feed a large army without depriving people living there of food, not to mention the logistics involved in shipping it over. And unless the army is near a port it will then need to be transported overland in the winter conditions etc.

3. How she is supposed to feed all the horses the Dothraki will be bringing? Where is the fodder going to come from?

So it looks like either Daenerys will have to bring a much smaller army, or her army will starve, or she'll have to make loads of other people starve so her army doesn't starve.

Long story short (and, by the way, good point)....she isn't.  This will be just another horrible reality that she's going to be confronted with.  She's going to get to westeros and Faegon is already going to be popular.  The only way she can win is to go scorched earth.  I think she won't do that right away, she'll probably meet Jon Snow first.....but after that.....I don't think anyone can deny, regardless of how good she wants to be....her overall goal is conquering and victory.  She'll snap, at some point.....after being faced with setback after setback.  It's a tragedy, really.  Reading her character from the first few books....literally all she wanted was a home to go back to.

[Lord Varys]

The question is kind of silly as nobody actually asks what the hell the Golden Company are living off right now and how the hell Aegon is going to win the hearts of the poor Westerosi smallfolk if his foreign sellsword scum is stealing food from them?

Because that is what they are doing right now in the Stormlands. And yet there are still Stormlanders joining him.

This is something that could become a plot ... or not, as it didn't with all the other campaigns in the books we got so far.

Bottom line is - soldiers will always eat because they will take whatever food is left from the non-soldiers ... and then the non-soldiers will starve and freeze to death, and that will take care of them to the point that there won't be much of an organized resistance movement. Food riots are something for city folk - and there there is likely to be some trouble like we had before. But in the country people will just quietly starve and die.

It is also kind of silly to assume that Aegon or Dany or any of the current pretenders in Westeros will launch massive campaigns across the continent in winter. What we can expect is naval campaigns and short regional or local campaigns. Both Aegon and Daenerys are likely to try to take KL, but not much else. That means that the provision of the troops marching to war is likely going to be as important as a plot point now that it was before ... with the only change being that it is winter now and not so easy to find food.

It is winter now, and they have no clue how long it will last, so what moron would start a war of conquest now rather than next spring? Stannis' people almost froze to death marching from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell ... and that was merely an autumn storm.

But, of course, Daenerys will likely control huge fertile lands in Essos less affected by winter when she goes to Westeros, so there will be means for her to ship food to Westeros if she wants to do that - just like the Lords of the Vale might or might not decide to ship food from the Vale to other regions of Westeros since they have a lot of surplus food stored.

[Aldarion]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The question is kind of silly as nobody actually asks what the hell the Golden Company are living off right now and how the hell Aegon is going to win the hearts of the poor Westerosi smallfolk if his foreign sellsword scum is stealing food from them?

Because that is what they are doing right now in the Stormlands. And yet there are still Stormlanders joining him.

Scale matters.

Golden Company is only 10 000 men, and only some 2 000 of those are cavalry.

Continent the size of Westeros isn't going to even notice such an army. But e.g. 50 000 Dothraki are quite another story... each Dothraki would have half a dozen to a dozen horses, and horses eat like, well, horses... so in the end, food requirements of such a force would be some 50 - 100 times that of the Golden Company.

Of course, a lot depends on whether Martin actually understands that...

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But, of course, Daenerys will likely control huge fertile lands in Essos less affected by winter when she goes to Westeros, so there will be means for her to ship food to Westeros if she wants to do that - just like the Lords of the Vale might or might not decide to ship food from the Vale to other regions of Westeros since they have a lot of surplus food stored.

That is just wishful thinking, I'd say. Golden Company got scattered due to early autumn storms... and the winter coming is not normal, it is going to be the Long Night. Daenerys will be lucky to get her army to Westeros without losing most of it in the storms... any sort of regular supply is going to be a fool's errand, even assuming it could be set up over such a distance to begin with (remember, this is no Roman Empire we're talking about).

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Scale matters.

Golden Company is only 10 000 men, and only some 2 000 of those are cavalry.

Continent the size of Westeros isn't going to even notice such an army. But e.g. 50 000 Dothraki are quite another story... each Dothraki would have half a dozen to a dozen horses, and horses eat like, well, horses... so in the end, food requirements of such a force would be some 50 - 100 times that of the Golden Company.

We have no clue how many men Dany is going to bring across the Narrow Sea. To take KL she hardly needs 50,000 men if she also happens to have dragons. But even if she did, people will die in battle and then the food of the Kingslanders will pass from whoever held it before into Dany's hands.

Keep in mind that Dany also has no huge problems feeding thousands and thousands of people (about 8,000 Unsullied plus many more freedmen following her) during her marches. Obviously people can live off the land to a degree somehow in Slaver's Bay.

The comparison I made is valid, though, as the assumption is that Aegon will magically be popular despite the fact that his foreigner sellswords will take food from the people (and likely also castles, titles, wealth, and lands from current nobility) while Dany is somehow imagined to be at a disadvantage there.

Sure enough - if we imagine Dany or any pretender marching with hundreds of thousands of people from one end of the continent to the other it should affect the people to a very large degree. But that isn't the issue. Dany will come from the east by ship, like Aegon, and she will land close to the capital and take it. That is her campaign, like it is Aegon's.

Also notice that Renly could feast and party with 100,000 men during his progress-march in the Reach without so much as denting the Reach's ability to feed itself or others. These people do have gigantic amounts of surplus food, apparently. Or they don't give a fig about the winter provisions of their peasants and don't face any bad consequences because of that.

Punitive expeditions which may or may not follow thereafter would be done by lords and knights bending the knee to Aegon/Dany, not necessarily by their foreign troops. That would only be the case if nobody in Westeros where to declare for them which is silly. Dany won't unleash all the Dothraki against, say, Dorne or the Westerlands, just as Aegon won't throw the entire Golden Company against the Vale, say.

We could expect some Dothraki to join a contingent of knights, just as Aegon might send some Golden Company men with whatever Dornish or Reach levies might declare for him ... but the idea that a Targaryen pretender would ever have to drown Westeros with foreign soldiers to take the Iron Throne is silly.

It is also kind of weird to assume that a monarch sitting the Iron Throne will or has to march out into the country to wage a war (much less one who is a dragonrider). Rebels wanting to overthrow him or her would have to march against them, and good luck with that in winter. You read the books, you know how this goes. Joff and Tommen didn't march to war, only Robb and Renly and Stannis did, because they wanted to be king/avenge themselves. And Balon sent out his generals to do his fighting.

In winter we can expect that pretty much nobody far away from KL would give a fig about the pretender taking the city from another pretender ... aside from the die-hard followers of the losing pretender or the losing pretender themselves if they were able to flee. Even if you had personal quarrels with the new pretender, reason would dictate you bide your time and wait for spring.

We can imagine silly scenarios where Aegon or Dany turn into Robb and Stannis who are effectively in the field all the time. But it is not likely that either is going to want to do that in winter. And especially a dragonrider can fly around a lot, dissuading potential rebels before they march into the field and striking deals with potential allies and friends to raise an army in their name without actually having to call on them with a strong host of their own.

This will also come in handy if there is a food crisis. Somebody can fly to Pentos or Myr to ensure more food ships are coming. Ditto with Gulltown.

40 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

That is just wishful thinking, I'd say. Golden Company got scattered due to early autumn storms... and the winter coming is not normal, it is going to be the Long Night. Daenerys will be lucky to get her army to Westeros without losing most of it in the storms... any sort of regular supply is going to be a fool's errand, even assuming it could be set up over such a distance to begin with (remember, this is no Roman Empire we're talking about).

We are talking about a very narrow sea called the Narrow Sea and a very developed infrastructure of naval trade.

I mean, it has been firmly established that the Vale is cut off from mainland Westeros already due to climate, weather, and geography. Yet it has also been established that the Vale is immensely fertile, one of the bread baskets of Westeros, and the place from which Jon Snow expects to buy food for the NW in the immediate future.

This is not a plot line that will disappear from the books because it is logistically impossible or very hard to ship huge amounts of food from Gulltown to Eastwatch or White Harbor. In fact, Jon wouldn't have thought about looking for food in Braavos and the Vale if it were impossible.

And it would be even easier to ship food from Pentos or Myr to KL, or from Volantis, Lys, or Tyrosh to Oldtown and/or up the Mander.

The Golden Company are scattered, but they are still thieves. They occupy a number of castles and stole food from the garrisons as well as the local population.

Bottom line is - this is not a plot line George is very interested in. Yes, in relation to winter he has to deliver, but not in relation to the weird 'the smallfolk are starving and therefore the guys in charge will face trouble' idea. Starvation usually doesn't lead to rebellion, so it is in fact the case that if Aegon or Dany or anyone else wants to seize and keep power they better keep the starving people starving while securing sufficient food for themselves and their followers.

They would have to make concessions to city folk, especially in the capital and wherever they intend to live during winter, but not to the population at large.

The Riverlands exemplify the problems the people right now reasonably well. There are many refugees and outlaws there because the region is war-torn. Soldiers foraged food again and again and again while also destroying homes and houses of the people living there. They had to leave if they wanted to survive. But they wouldn't have left by the droves if merely their winter provisions had run out. That is a much slower process and one these people are apparently accustomed to.

If Daenerys were, say, Stannis and had to burn all of Westeros between the Wall and KL to get to the Iron Throne she might be the most hated monarch of all time once she gets there ... but she will land on the shore, at a place of her choosing. Her way to the Iron Throne should be very short, possibly even shorter than Aegon's. Which means the idea that not exactly many people are likely to blame her for the current food shortage on the continent in winter and after a long civil war.

[Aldarion]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no clue how many men Dany is going to bring across the Narrow Sea. To take KL she hardly needs 50,000 men if she also happens to have dragons. But even if she did, people will die in battle and then the food of the Kingslanders will pass from whoever held it before into Dany's hands.

Keep in mind that Dany also has no huge problems feeding thousands and thousands of people (about 8,000 Unsullied plus many more freedmen following her) during her marches. Obviously people can live off the land to a degree somehow in Slaver's Bay.

The comparison I made is valid, though, as the assumption is that Aegon will magically be popular despite the fact that his foreigner sellswords will take food from the people (and likely also castles, titles, wealth, and lands from current nobility) while Dany is somehow imagined to be at a disadvantage there.

If Daenerys brings a sizable army and a bunch of refugees as some people expect, then yes, she will be at considerable disadvantage in comparison to Aegon. Especially so if her army includes a significant number of Dothraki.

Both Aegon and Daenerys will have "take food from the people" problem, but a) Aegon's foreign sellswords will take far less food than Daenerys' foreign barbarians and b) Aegon's foreigners are far less foreign. So that is not going to help her any.

38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure enough - if we imagine Dany or any pretender marching with hundreds of thousands of people from one end of the continent to the other it should affect the people to a very large degree. But that isn't the issue. Dany will come from the east by ship, like Aegon, and she will land close to the capital and take it. That is her campaign, like it is Aegon's.

 

In which case it is not going to matter either way.

38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also notice that Renly could feast and party with 100,000 men during his progress-march in the Reach without so much as denting the Reach's ability to feed itself or others. These people do have gigantic amounts of surplus food, apparently. Or they don't give a fig about the winter provisions of their peasants and don't face any bad consequences because of that.

Renly did it during summer. Summer is time during which you build up stores for winter, and if needed, these can be redirected.

But again, Golden Company will eat far less food than any force Daenerys can bring that would be able to match it in effectiveness. Especially so if they lose their elephants.

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Punitive expeditions which may or may not follow thereafter would be done by lords and knights bending the knee to Aegon/Dany, not necessarily by their foreign troops. That would only be the case if nobody in Westeros where to declare for them which is silly. Dany won't unleash all the Dothraki against, say, Dorne or the Westerlands, just as Aegon won't throw the entire Golden Company against the Vale, say.

We could expect some Dothraki to join a contingent of knights, just as Aegon might send some Golden Company men with whatever Dornish or Reach levies might declare for him ... but the idea that a Targaryen pretender would ever have to drown Westeros with foreign soldiers to take the Iron Throne is silly.

She will need at least an initial army in order to gain support in Westeros, just as Aegon has to win at least some battles to get lords to declare for him. Name alone is not enough.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is also kind of weird to assume that a monarch sitting the Iron Throne will or has to march out into the country to wage a war (much less one who is a dragonrider). Rebels wanting to overthrow him or her would have to march against them, and good luck with that in winter. You read the books, you know how this goes. Joff and Tommen didn't march to war, only Robb and Renly and Stannis did, because they wanted to be king/avenge themselves. And Balon sent out his generals to do his fighting.

In winter we can expect that pretty much nobody far away from KL would give a fig about the pretender taking the city from another pretender ... aside from the die-hard followers of the losing pretender or the losing pretender themselves if they were able to flee. Even if you had personal quarrels with the new pretender, reason would dictate you bide your time and wait for spring.

We can imagine silly scenarios where Aegon or Dany turn into Robb and Stannis who are effectively in the field all the time. But it is not likely that either is going to want to do that in winter. And especially a dragonrider can fly around a lot, dissuading potential rebels before they march into the field and striking deals with potential allies and friends to raise an army in their name without actually having to call on them with a strong host of their own.

This will also come in handy if there is a food crisis. Somebody can fly to Pentos or Myr to ensure more food ships are coming. Ditto with Gulltown.

Food ships are, as I said, unlikely. Just look at how Golden Company landing went, and that was autumn, not winter.

And monarch sitting the Iron Throne will not be a dragonrider, unless Aegon somehow gets a dragon... which is not unlikely.

That being said, it is true that scale of warfare will likely be very limited. Which is good for Daenerys because otherwise, between limited number and quality of troops she will be bringing to Westeros, she would have to either rely on local support or else give up.

51 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We are talking about a very narrow sea called the Narrow Sea and a very developed infrastructure of naval trade.

I mean, it has been firmly established that the Vale is cut off from mainland Westeros already due to climate, weather, and geography. Yet it has also been established that the Vale is immensely fertile, one of the bread baskets of Westeros, and the place from which Jon Snow expects to buy food for the NW in the immediate future.

This is not a plot line that will disappear from the books because it is logistically impossible or very hard to ship huge amounts of food from Gulltown to Eastwatch or White Harbor. In fact, Jon wouldn't have thought about looking for food in Braavos and the Vale if it were impossible.

And it would be even easier to ship food from Pentos or Myr to KL, or from Volantis, Lys, or Tyrosh to Oldtown and/or up the Mander.

Narrow Sea is only narrow relatively speaking. It is 300 miles at the narrowest point, which is distance from Scotland to Norway, or else the average width of eastern Mediterranean.

And food first has to reach ports on the Narrow Sea, and then be shipped to wherever it is needed. So unless you are looking at feeding only King's Landing and leaving everybody else to starve, it will still be extremely difficult to nearly impossible logistical undertaking.

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Golden Company are scattered, but they are still thieves. They occupy a number of castles and stole food from the garrisons as well as the local population.

Welcome to literally every army in the book. Except the Golden Company are actually disciplined, not something you can say for anybody in Daenerys' army except for the Unsullied.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Bottom line is - this is not a plot line George is very interested in. Yes, in relation to winter he has to deliver, but not in relation to the weird 'the smallfolk are starving and therefore the guys in charge will face trouble' idea. Starvation usually doesn't lead to rebellion, so it is in fact the case that if Aegon or Dany or anyone else wants to seize and keep power they better keep the starving people starving while securing sufficient food for themselves and their followers.

They would have to make concessions to city folk, especially in the capital and wherever they intend to live during winter, but not to the population at large.

The Riverlands exemplify the problems the people right now reasonably well. There are many refugees and outlaws there because the region is war-torn. Soldiers foraged food again and again and again while also destroying homes and houses of the people living there. They had to leave if they wanted to survive. But they wouldn't have left by the droves if merely their winter provisions had run out. That is a much slower process and one these people are apparently accustomed to.

If Daenerys were, say, Stannis and had to burn all of Westeros between the Wall and KL to get to the Iron Throne she might be the most hated monarch of all time once she gets there ... but she will land on the shore, at a place of her choosing. Her way to the Iron Throne should be very short, possibly even shorter than Aegon's. Which means the idea that not exactly many people are likely to blame her for the current food shortage on the continent in winter and after a long civil war.

Actually, starvation is precisely what usually does lead to rebellion. Well, depending on what / who is causing starvation.

And Riverlands are in fact unique, because the area was not exposed to, as you imply, merely normal foraging. Tywin intentionally burnt down as much of the riverlands as he could have as a form of irregular warfare campaign. So no, they do not "exemplify the problems of the people right now reasonably well". No other area in Westeros will be facing the problems Riverlands are facing, unless Daenerys and Aegon (and Euron) burn down half the Westeros in their wars.