MLB Thread

[Mexal]

Yeah, I don't know if he just doesn't have the star power but why does say, A-Rod, get all that money when Albert gets what he gets.

He will. He might even get more. The Cards signed him to a 7 year, 100 mil contract 2 years before he was eligible for Free Agency (in 2004). Over those 2 years, he would have gotten significantly less money due to arbitration. When Pujols' contract is up in 2010-2011, he'll get a $200+ mil contract.

When A-Rod got his massive contract from the Rangers, he was a free agent. I bet when Pujols hits free agency, he'll get something similar.

[Myshkin]

What the fuck is Andrew Jones' problem?

[Jaime L]

What the fuck is Andrew Jones' problem?

Cheeseburgers?

[Myshkin]

Cheeseburgers?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Mack Kilimaro]

Cheeseburgers?

Probably could have also gone with cocaine, or so I hear.

[Jaxom 1974]

Probably could have also gone with cocaine, or so I hear.

Then someone should tell him that it's not a condiment...

I bet when Pujols hits free agency, he'll get something similar.

For who? The Yankees? Gods forbid. The Cardinals will do everything in their power to keep him from free agency. Don't know if they'll be able to, but they'll try...

[Lightning Lord]

For who? The Yankees? Gods forbid. The Cardinals will do everything in their power to keep him from free agency. Don't know if they'll be able to, but they'll try...

I'm almost afraid to ask...does Pujols have Boras as his agent? If so, $200 mil is assured, if not more.

[Andrik the Unsmiling]

Let me just say one thing: Hell yeah, Matt Cain.

I'd say his career has really turned a corner except he's always been this good (ok, he's a little better so far this year, at least in terms of ERA). But his craptastic luck of the past? Apparently gone. Thank God.

May you keep on rolling, Matty. (knock wood)

[Mexal]

Let me just say one thing: Hell yeah, Matt Cain.

I'd say his career has really turned a corner except he's always been this good (ok, he's a little better so far this year, at least in terms of ERA). But his craptastic luck of the past? Apparently gone. Thank God.

May you keep on rolling, Matty. (knock wood)

He's getting incredibly lucky this year. His LOB% is somewhere around 88%. That's ridiculously high and completely unsustainable. His FIP is like 1.7 pts higher than what his ERA is currently sitting at (though to be fair, it was like 3 pts higher a few weeks back so he's definitely improving). His K/9 is down and his BB/9 is up.

His BABIP however, is around .280 which isn't too bad. The average is around .300.

Anyway, my point is he's not nearly as good as his numbers suggest but he's still having a decent enough year.

[Lord O' Bones]

His LOB% is somewhere around 88%.

You think that's unintentional?

More the fool you.

[boiled leather]

Cain looked phenomenal yesterday. and Schierholtz sure can motor. I hope they didn't use up all their offense for the week in one game. If not, maybe the Gigantes really can win 88-92 games.

[Whiskeyjack]

There's a great article on Matt Cain by Eric Seidman at Baseball Prospectus. Looks at the numbers behind the numbers that are behind the numbers. :P

I won't copy the whole thing, but here's most of it -

Type his name into Google and a surplus of articles are bound to surface, proclaiming that Cain should be sold high in fantasy leagues because his performance is not "real." These articles tend to hone in on a disconnect between Cain's ERA and FIP, almost going so far as to suggest that his current statistical resumé is due to nothing more than luck. Perhaps Cain has benefited from some favorable bounces or from a few metrics that are bound to regress over the remainder of the season, but to sound these alarms without any evidence other than a FIP somewhat higher than his earned-run mark is absurd. In fact, all of these ERA-FIP articles are just begging for a reminder of why we use FIP in the first place.

Fielding Independent Pitching quantifies precisely what its name suggests—the contributions of a pitcher relative to the events under his control, or those events immune to the effects of defense or luck. Walks, strikeouts, and home runs are recognized as controllable skills based on year-to-year correlations of moderate-or-greater strength. Because these three metrics provide a more telling window into a pitcher's skill set, FIP serves as a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. An FIP higher than an ERA does not erase performance up to that point or indicate that the numbers lack validity. Instead, it merely suggests that the success, or lack thereof up to that point are not entirely related to the act of pitching.

The relationship between FIP and ERA is often directly tied to the strand rate, or the percentage of baserunners that fail to add to their runs-scored total. The league-average pitcher will strand about 72 percent of his runners. If a pitcher boasts a solid FIP with a putrid strand rate, he figures to have a worse earned run average. Inversely, a higher FIP married to a fantastic strand rate can transform an average pitcher into a Halladay clone. The latter situation has occurred with Cain this season, as his FIP currently rests at a good (but not great) 4.35 that is almost two runs higher than his ERA thanks to an otherworldly 89 percent strand rate.

Such a high rate of marooning baserunners indicates an ability to bear down when runners reach base. Unfortunately, too many neglect to ask why or how this has occurred, simply reaching this point and dismissing the hurler's performance as a fraud. Keep in mind that over the last ten years the league-average slash line with the bases empty is .260/.322/.419, compared to .270/.336/.426 with runners on. Cain has been spitting in the face of those numbers so far this season:

Bases PA AVG/ OBP/ SLG BABIP

Empty 134 .339/.403/.479 .402

Men On 110 .141/.236/.228 .145

Runners have not necessarily struggled to get on, but they end up trapped upon reaching their destinations. Additionally, as the situations become more tense, Cain has produced another counter-intuitive split. Most pitchers fare better in low-leverage situations, but Cain has allowed hitters to slash a mere .172/.265/.241 throughout the most crucial circumstances. In less important plate appearances, hitters have managed a .286/.353/.390 line.

Despite the ultra-low ERA and dominance with runners on base, many have already thrown in the towel with regards to Cain, since he has experienced a decline in whiffs per nine while exhibiting some interesting marks in the plate discipline department. After inducing swings out of the zone at a steadily increasing clip, reaching its rate apex at 26 percent last season, Cain has dropped to 21 percent in a league where the average is 24.5 percent. He has been bailed out by a 59 percent rate of contact on these outside swings, way down from the 65 percent found in his career data prior to this season.

Entering 2009, hitters made contact on just 84-85 percent of Cain's pitches in the actual strike zone, a very solid rate indicating that his raw stuff has overpowered the opposition. This season, that rate has risen to 90 percent, despite a slightly lower rate of overall swings. More contact on fewer swings is a Cook Yourself Thin recipe for strikeouts.

...

With subtle spikes in both the walk and home-run rates as well as a dramatic drop-off in strikeouts derived from shifts in the approaches of opposing hitters, it stands to reason that Cain will have to make adjustments of his own when those tremendous numbers with men on base begin their inevitable trek downward. At this juncture, one question stands out: How in the wide, wide, world of sports has Cain been able to transform himself into Pedro Martinez circa 1999 with runners on base? For starters, here's a look at Cain's pitch selection data over the past four years:

...

Upon first arriving in the big leagues, Cain used his powerhouse mechanics, complete with a slight jump towards the end of his delivery, to rocket 93 mph fastballs almost three-quarters of the time. Since then, he has matured with respect to pitch selection, incorporating off-speed offerings much more often. These frequency increases of the non-fastball components of his repertoire were not random, but rather the result of actual strides made in improving the pitches. Since 2007, Cain has added two inches of vertical movement to his curveball and 1.7 inches of horizontal movement to his changeup.

With runners on base, Cain's data shifts markedly in a few key areas, primarily the movement on both his fastball and curveball.

...

Though a fraction of an inch here or there is not necessarily significant in terms of release point or movement, throwing a curveball with 0.9 more inches of vertical movement and a fastball with 0.6 more inches of horizontal movement than with the bases empty certainly helps to explain some of Cain's stranding prowess.

...

The fastball velocity issue has raised eyebrows as well, since it is fairly rare to see a 24-year-old with fluid mechanics and no real prior injury history suddenly drop from 93 mph to 91.7 mph in under three seasons. While the knee-jerk reaction would involve suggesting some kind of injury, the more likely cause is a combination of incorporating more off-speed pitches as well as learning not to max his effort on every single offering. Cain will not finish the season with an ERA this far from his FIP, since one will work like a magnet, drawing the other closer. His performance right now is very real, and his success with runners on seems to stem from much more than just luck-based indicators bound for regression.

The numbers suggest that he has been able to kick the gears into overdrive when a baserunner reaches, digging deep for the extra movement needed to put the batters away and prevent any damage. Luck has certainly been cast in at least a supporting role, but it doesn't have as much of an effect as his abilities. The BABIP marks will regress, as they usually do, but Cain's rate of strikeouts should also revert to his previously established norms. They may not cancel each other out, but the regression highway handles traffic on both sides. Matt Cain may never become a true ace, and his end-of-season statistics may be unrecognizable relative to his present production, but we now have the data available to investigate the roots of these statistical shifts. Let's use it, instead of relying on more obvious data and merely treating that as gospel.

I added the underlined emphasis, just in case anybody was skimming for the bottom line conclusion of the article.

I'm not going to say that I completely buy what the writer is saying...but I do think it's a pretty interesting topic to think about, and I've been watching Cain closely ever since it was posted (about 2 weeks ago), just to see which side of the debate ends up being correct.

[Bronn Stone]

Cain's stuff has always been impressive to my eye. And he really had terrible luck last year in terms of run support. I definitely noticed him using the off speed pitches more often and with greater success in his last start.

[▲Jim▲]

Quiet day today in baseball, only two games :(

[Jaxom 1974]

WJ, or anyone, any comments on the 16 year old kid who's left high school to get a GED to speed up his chances of getting into the MLB draft? From Yahoo...the kid was also covered in an interesting SI article last week...

[TheBigTEA]

Had a blast watching the Brewers game last night. I don't think I have ever done more cheering and swearing in the same game before.

I feel good that I totally called Fielder's Grand Slam though. =)

Hopefully that game gets the offense on track and hitting like they where in May.

[Jaxom 1974]

And no one is surprised. Wonder if things would have stayed quiet if he hadn't come out and said that he'd quietly wait to be inducted into the Hall of Fame a couple weeks back...?

[Myshkin]

When the last A-Rod story broke there were rumors that there was another "big" name from the 2003 test that was going to come out. It was Sammy Sosa.

This guy is one of the ultimate meteorites. He got so big so quickly and fell back to Earth in record time. And now it's complete. I used to love it when Jim Rome would talk about how Sosa forgot how to speak English just in time for the steroid hearings.

ESPN said something like "the Baseball world is shocked by another steroids scandal", and then the revealed that it was Sosa. Really? Who the fuck is "shocked" to find out that Sosa was juicing?

[Jaxom 1974]

ESPN said something like "the Baseball world is shocked by another steroids scandal", and then the revealed that it was Sosa. Really? Who the fuck is "shocked" to find out that Sosa was juicing?

Sosa himself...?

[Week]

When the last A-Rod story broke there were rumors that there was another "big" name from the 2003 test that was going to come out. It was Sammy Sosa.

This guy is one of the ultimate meteorites. He got so big so quickly and fell back to Earth in record time. And now it's complete. I used to love it when Jim Rome would talk about how Sosa forgot how to speak English just in time for the steroid hearings.

omgnoway!

He was clearly the most egregious juicer. He and Palmeiro. Both were very poor regulars that chemically transformed themselves into hall of famers. That is what is despicable about steroid use.