World Cup 2010 - Prelude to South Africa

[Zach H]

Seems like it's Brazil's title to lose given the track record for European countries playing outside of Europe. If it's a surprise team, my money's on one of the African nations.

As a U.S. fan, though, I'll consider it a grand success if the team finds a way to get out of the group. Only way that will happen is if the draw is kind and Donovan and Howard play out of their mind. As of right now the only thing guaranteed for the U.S. is that at least two players will receive straight reds after tackles. Happens at just about every tournament.

[Mr. X]

Australia-New Zealand would be fun.... ;)

If we're going to talk bizarre fantasy finals, how about North vs. South Korea? :P

[Fez]

In truth I picked Greece because I always feel like some random small European country should do really, really well, and I thought, why not Greece? Like I said, my knowledge is football is limited. Basically I've got watching the past two world cups, the past UEFA championship, a Man U-Man City match last fall, and playing World Cup USA '94 on my super nintendo waaay back in the day. And that's it. And really, what's stopping Greece from getting an easy group, winning it, and going on a roll? Not saying its likely, just that I could see it. And I see it a lot easier than either Australia, Korea, Japan, any of the African teams, any of the North American teams, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, New Zealand, Denmark, England, France, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, or Switzerland.

Granted, that still leaves Netherlands (who I forgot about), Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy, and Spain. But all I was saying is that if one of the regular champs didn't win, I could see Spain or Greece win it. I do think though that one of the regulars will win it; probably Italy actually, because I would find that personally the most boring result (what's more boring than a repeat championship?), and what I find boring tends to be what happens.

I do wonder though about North Korea; have they had fans at away qualifying matches?

[Horza]

And really, what's stopping Greece from getting an easy group, winning it, and going on a roll?

Mainly the fact that they're a fairly limited side with a gameplan that everyone figured out about five years ago

Not saying its likely, just that I could see it. And I see it a lot easier than either Australia, Korea, Japan, any of the African teams, any of the North American teams, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, New Zealand, Denmark, England, France, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, or Switzerland.

Putting this as delicately as I can, your certainty about this is surprising given what you've already admitted about your knowledge.

Almost all the teams you've named there apart from New Zeland and Slovakia are as good a chance of getting out their group as Greece, and many better.

I do wonder though about North Korea; have they had fans at away qualifying matches?

They have, their travelling fanbase such as it is, is mainly composed of Japanese-born Koreans who associate themselves with the North. I imagine some of the inner circle are probably going to go to SA as well though you won't find them in the crowd.

[Fez]

Putting this as delicately as I can, your certainty about this is surprising given what you've already admitted about your knowledge.

I'm certain about nothing, and not trying to come across that way, just saying I've got a good feeling about them for no good reason. The only real knowledge I've got about them is that they beat Israel a few times, who I root for in the sense of not paying any attention but if I see they won something when surfing espn.com I'm happy, but that doesn't really mean anything. However now that I see how unpopular a view it is, I almost feel like I should make this my actual pick, so that if it somehow actually happened I'd look like some sort of visionary. :)

My actual money is on a repeat by Italy, for the reason I already gave. And the fact that (i've been told) they are still quite good.

They have, their travelling fanbase such as it is, is mainly composed of Japanese-born Koreans who associate themselves with the North. I imagine some of the inner circle are probably going to go to SA as well though you won't find them in the crowd.

Gotcha, interesting. So strange (to me) that they made it in.

[Renasko]

If England do make it to the final, I'd be happy...as long as they get whooped by Brazil again or Spain.

Should be an interesting tournament. Looking forward to it. As long as Brazil retain their main players, and there's no suspensions or seriously bad stuff happening, I'd expect them to win. They look great.

[Xray the Enforcer]

just saying I've got a good feeling about them for no good reason.

I believe Hereward says the same thing about West Ham at the start of every season. :P

[Horza]

Since I'm the board Asian Football Confederation nut I'll do a little rundown on four qualifiers and those adorable Kiwis:

Australia - 1st, Group A (6-2-0)

Coached by the pragmatic Pim Verbeek, the Socceroos made their way through their first AFC qualification on the back of solid home perfomances and some less impressive but hard-fought away wins. Most of the 2006 generation is back and out for revenge but has time passed them by?

MVPs: Tim Cahill (Everton), Mark Schwarzer(Fulham), Luke Wilkshire (Dinamo Moscow).

Strengths: Strong aerial presence, 2nd ball merchants, never-say-die attitude and a goalie on top of his game.

Weaknesses: Ageing backline, predictable, unconvincing forwards.

Expect: A fight.

Round of 16: Solid chance.

Japan - 2nd, Group A (4-3-1)

The Blue Samurai make their fourth consecutive appearance, their coach Takeshi Okada shepherding them to the finals and saving his hide in the process. Much of the old guard have been replaced by a younger generation, drawn largely from the J-League.

MVPs: Shunsuke Nakamura (Espanyol), Yuji Nakazawa (Yokohama F. Marinos), Shinji Okazaki (Shimizu S-Pulse).

Strengths: Fast passing, organised defense, something to prove

Weaknesses: Finishing, finishing, question-marks over the coach and a general inability to finish.

Expect: hair clumps all over the pitch come final whistle

Round of 16: Unlikely.

South Korea (aka Korea Republic) 1st, Group B (4-4-0)

Finally breaking with the Dutch experiment South Korea solidly stamped their authority over a tough final group under the instruction of Huh Jung-Moo. Like Japan this is a younger, domestic South Korean side with a sprinking of Euro players. Finishing undefeated in all phases of qualifying (7-7) they await the ultimate challenge with credentials well in order.

MVPs: Park Ji-Sung (c'mon) , Kim Nam-il (Vissel Kobe), Lee Young-Pyo (Al-Hilal)

Strengths: fast skillful wingers, goalscoring midfield, organised

Weaknesses: blunt up front.

Expect: commentators focusing exclusively on PJS.

Round of 16: Solid chance.

North Korea (aka Korea DPR) 2nd Group B 3-3-2

North Korea were the surprise package of AFC Qualification, riding their way to the WC on the back of a fiercely organised defense and their foreign-based strikers. Hard to beat and quick on the counter it's difficult to see how they'll go anywhere in the comp and if they get drawn with Greece or Switzerland I advise you not to watch lest you never awaken again.

MVPs: Chong Tese (Kawasaki Frontale), Hong Young-Jo (FC Rostov), Ahn Young-Hak (Suwon Bluewings)

Strengths: did I mention their defense? It's really organised.

Weaknesses: no plan B, midfield largely anonymous.

Expect: weirdness from their FA.

Round of 16: All but none.

New Zealand Winner OFC-AFC playoff

Heirs to the OFC 0.5 qualifying spot thanks to Australia's departure, the All Whites (haha! I know! in South Africa!) managed the difficult two-step of sweeping aside footballing titans Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands before steeling up to face down perpetual bridesmaids Bahrain (seriously, it is quite difficult).

Coached by Ricki 'the Kiwi Beckenbauer' Herbert the squad is based around A-League side Wellington Pheonix with a few Euros to help out. Written off by all and sundry they must now face a torrent of 'plucky New Zealand' guff - can they survive it?

MVPs: Ryan Nelsen (Blackburn Rovers), Shane Smeltz (Gold Coast United), Tim Brown (Wellington Pheonix)

Strengths: some decent strikers and a coach who knows what he's doing

Weaknesses: overall skill issues, lack of midfield creativity

Expect: Everyone's 2nd fav team. See torrent of patronisation above.

Round of 16: No way.

[The Marquis de Leech]

History says a South American team will win it. Spot the pattern since 1962:

1962: Brazil (South America)

1966: England (Europe)

1970: Brazil (South America)

1974: West Germany (Europe)

1978: Argentina (South America)

1982: Italy (Europe)

1986: Argentina (South America)

1990: Germany (Europe)

1994: Brazil (South America)

1998: France (Europe)

2002: Brazil (South America)

2006: Italy (Europe)

Written off by all and sundry they must now face a torrent of 'plucky New Zealand' guff - can they survive it?

Actually I don't think they'll mind. The major advantage the All Whites* have is that expectations are pretty much zero - compare that with the All Blacks, who choke so regularly at (rugby) World Cups you can set your watch by it. The All Whites have surpassed anyone's wildest dreams by actually getting to the Cup; anything else at this point is just icing on the cake.

*In case you've ever wondered why a country whose national colour is black plays in an all-white strip, it's because black is for referees.

[The Iceman of the North]

Almost all the teams you've named there apart from New Zeland and Slovakia are as good a chance of getting out their group as Greece, and many better.

I don't know why you write off Slovakia. They may not have many stars on their team, but they had a solid qualification getting 10 out of 12 points against Poland and the Czech.

[Padraig]

The All Whites have surpassed anyone's wildest dreams by actually getting to the Cup; anything else at this point is just icing on the cake.

Which I find weird since they hardly had a very difficult road to the finals. Did they think beating Bahrain would be that difficult? Even if they got a potentially stronger team like Saudi Arabia, it would hardly have been that big a surprise if they beat them.

I think all the Asian teams will find it difficult, although one is bound to surprise and reach the last 16.

Mexico normally are dangerous but they have had a dissappointing couple of years. The US will probably be dangerous enough. But the African teams are most likely to be the biggest challengers to the traditional powers.

Among the teams that have never won, there are three currently ranked in the top five: Spain (1), the Netherlands (3) and Portugal (5).

Portugal sounds like they continue to suffer from their traditional problems. They have picked up a Brazilian striker but Deco is ageing in centre midfield.

Argentina could turn good. Brazil had a very difficult qualifying period for WC2002 and still won. But if they have Maradona as manager then its almost impossible to see them win.

So one is left with Brazil, Spain, Holland, Germany, England, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, France, Italy and Portugal.

Serbia could be a dark-horse but they have also flopped badly at these things before.

[Hereward]

I believe Hereward says the same thing about West Ham at the start of every season. :P

Why? Why must you say these things? They laugh at our grief, preciousss. But one day... yes, one day.

[Horza]

Which I find weird since they hardly had a very difficult road to the finals. Did they think beating Bahrain would be that difficult? Even if they got a potentially stronger team like Saudi Arabia, it would hardly have been that big a surprise if they beat them.

This is a fairly common misunderstanding about OFC qualification. It is not easy, and what appears to make it look easy is what makes it quite an unsatisfactory route to the finals:

Paradoxically the difficulties come from the poor quality of the opposition - it's impossible to get your Euro players out for games against mighty Western Samoa so you have to wait until your domestic-based squad has secured regional qualification before you even begin to assemble your full-strength side for a handful of friendlies against whomever will play you, whereupon you plunge straight into sudden-death playoffs against a battle-hardened AFC/CONMEBOL side.

The Kiwis got lucky this time around in that they were assigned AFC and both Saudi and Iran flubbed out, either would have given them a much sterner test. Even then, Bahrain missed an open goal in Manama and could have put the tie to death by converting their penalty at the Cake Tin.

In every other qualifying group success is a matter of consistancy and a bit of luck and the benefits are a core of well drilled players that know how to play together and a coach that has seen his side handle a range of challenges. OFC qualification is low on all those things and high on blind luck.

[Padraig]

OFC qualification is low on all those things and high on blind luck.

That makes sense. It means that NZ will always have a chance of qualifying, since even against a decent team they could be lucky. But its also why Australia moved. If they wanted to improve, they needed a proper qualifying campaign.

That is why I am very dissappointed to see Europe go for a 24 team European finals. It will deprive teams of proper games.

[Maithanet]

So one is left with Brazil, Spain, Holland, Germany, England, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, France, Italy and Portugal.

You list Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria. I have been watching for any WC news in the states, and it seems like whenever people talk about the African squads, Ivory Coast is listed as a cut above, with a legit shot at semis (perhaps further). Is this actually the case or is this a particularly strong year for the African teams? (I can't think of any other year where more than one African squad made a big splash, although my memory isn't great for this sort of thing).

Is ESPN merely lazy, and picked one African team as the "favorite/best"? I know it's always easier to just fall in love with a few of teams and drone on about the minutia of their various efforts.

[DJDonegal]

No African team has ever made the Semi-Finals. In fact, from the top of my head I can only recall two making the Quarter Finals - Cameroon in 1990 and Senegal in 2002. But there'll be a lot more emphasis on the African nations this time round simply because the continent is hosting the tournament for the first time.

[Slick Mongoose]

You list Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria. I have been watching for any WC news in the states, and it seems like whenever people talk about the African squads, Ivory Coast is listed as a cut above, with a legit shot at semis (perhaps further). Is this actually the case or is this a particularly strong year for the African teams? (I can't think of any other year where more than one African squad made a big splash, although my memory isn't great for this sort of thing).

Is ESPN merely lazy, and picked one African team as the "favorite/best"? I know it's always easier to just fall in love with a few of teams and drone on about the minutia of their various efforts.

They'd be my top African pick too. On paper they're very strong.

[Zoë Sumra]

It's amusing because every English-men, the players included, think they're the greatest nation on earth. So they inevitably fail when they come against a team that is even half-decent and well organised.

As is said, the English are self-made men and women who worship their Creator. (and the Welsh pray on their knees and their neighbours, the Scots keep the Sabbath and anything else they can get their hands on, and the Irish don't know what they want but are willing to fight anyone for it.)

Regarding winning teams - it seems to me that anyone would be a surprise. Spain look best to me, but they're not proven. Brazil are patchy, Argentina and England more so, Germany uninspiring, Cote d'Ivoire dramatic but outsiders. But at the start of WC06 I wouldn't have picked Italy. Should be fun finding out. :)

[Altherion]

But the African teams are most likely to be the biggest challengers to the traditional powers.

Do you really think so? Only one of them (Cameroon) has ever gotten to the quarter-finals and they only managed it once. I suppose one of them might make the semis if home team refereeing is extended to all of Africa, but even then I can't see them going further without a great deal of luck.

[Renasko]

I'm expecting next-to-nothing from the hosts and the other African nations competing in next summer's competition. There's very few world class African players that will be featuring. Michael Essien, Didier Drogba, and...who?