[Sample] Arianne I

[Ser Wun Wun]

Been reading the reports on Arianne II and comparing it with what is in this sample chapter. It's hard to analyze without text, and most of the 2nd chapter is just travelogue, but I think Arianne's decision at the end to go meet Aegon at SE is significant in terms of assessing just how much she has really learned from Doran. Once she arrives at Griffin's Roost she is informed of Aegon taking SE and is then invited to go meet him there. In response:

She wondered if it was a trap where she might be held ransom for her father’s throwing his support to Aegon

The Bastard of Godsgrace urges her not to go to Storm's End but Arianne says she must be her father's heir and she needs to see this dragon

Daemon counsels her not to go, and she too sees that it is dangerous, but in the end she decides to go anyway. A very rash decision imo. It was Connington who sent the letter begging requesting help from Dorne, so it seems to me that the Martells have the power in this situation. So the logical thing to do would have been to request that JC and Aegon come to meet Arianne on safe, neutral ground. It would have only taken a few days to set such a meeting up, SE isn't that far away from GR. But instead Arianne impatiently throws caution to the wind and decides to rush headlong into the dragon's new lair....Doran would not approve I'd say.

[Whitering]

I agree Ser Wun Wun. However, Connington does seem to have a bit of honour and pissing off the Martells would seem like a bad idea. If they can secure them as allies, he secures his southern front. That's pretty important given that the Martells are to the west and KL and everyone else to the North.

[Ice Turtle]

Sellswords landing on Cape Wrath, castles under siege or being taken, crops seized or burned.

I have to comment this small note, heh, famine of epic scale is coming. Or maybe not if they kill enough people.

[Ice Turtle]

I agree Ser Wun Wun. However, Connington does seem to have a bit of honour and pissing off the Martells would seem like a bad idea. If they can secure them as allies, he secures his southern front. That's pretty important given that the Martells are to the west and KL and everyone else to the North.

But would it be so hard to force Arianne to write Sansa like letter?

[K26dp]

I have to comment this small note, heh, famine of epic scale is coming. Or maybe not if they kill enough people.

I admit I also winced at the mention of crops getting burned. The smallfolk of Westeros are so screwed.

[Ser Wun Wun]

I agree Ser Wun Wun. However, Connington does seem to have a bit of honour and pissing off the Martells would seem like a bad idea. If they can secure them as allies, he secures his southern front. That's pretty important given that the Martells are to the west and KL and everyone else to the North.

True, I don't think Connington would actually kidnap her. But the point is how could Arianne reasonably assume that? All she knows of JC is what Daemon told her in this sample chapter, and that was not much. The reports don't say she learned anything more about him either, only that she met the GC sellswords and did not like what she saw of them.

Daemon is a man Doran trusts and so I take his judgement as a valid proxy for Doran's here, and Daemon told her it was not wise to go. She ignored him. I think that was rather rash and impatient, something the "old" Arianne would have done.

[Whitering]

I admit I also winced at the mention of crops getting burned. The smallfolk of Westeros are so screwed.

Ya, Aegon is not making any friends by burning people out. It's not like the stormlands were ruled by dictators at the moment, they mostly had the Tyrells there at this point, and they seem to take care of their peasants.

[Ser Wun Wun]

I have to comment this small note, heh, famine of epic scale is coming. Or maybe not if they kill enough people.

Absolutely. The Vale is the only untouched region so far, but with LF stirring stuff up there I'm not sure that will hold true much longer.

Widespread famine and another round of wars, all during a severe Winter with an Others invasion looming.....it's certainly hell in Westeros at the moment.

[alienarea]

Some observations:

I wonder if Arianne will get greyscale and doom Dorne by sleeping around.

With this Darkstar overkill I suspect that Doran send Areo to help him.

We don't have a POV on Doran so he will die.

Darkstar might become a love interest for Daenerys (if she ever comes to Westeros)

[koststerg]

Dragon dancing: I don’t think it foreshadows an Aegon – Dany open war. I think it is just describing what happens at that moment in front of the walls of Mereen, people fighting and killing each other and the 2 Dragons are flying above them.

[megamutt]

Can someone in Arianne's group, confirm JonCon's identity ?

[jarl the climber]

But ser Axell couldn't have done much either, it was the king who ordered the burning. In eyes of Westeros and probably Jon she let her brother die and not few will even think that she had him murdered so she could rule.

Most of the people with Stannis now are Florent men. If Axell and his wife had objected I am sure they could have prevented the execution. The implication to me was that they not only did not protest but supported the descision. Yes, I agree the whole Viserys thing will raise doubts about Dany. My thinking on this is that she has more culpability for what happened to Quentyn because she did see the parrelell between the two.(Viserys and Quentyn)

[Tini]

She did not crown Quentyn with molten gold.

Dragon dancing: I don’t think it foreshadows an Aegon – Dany open war. I think it is just describing what happens at that moment in front of the walls of Mereen, people fighting and killing each other and the 2 Dragons are flying above them.

I agree that it doesn't necessarily foreshadow an Aegon-Dany war, but the girl said that the dragons are coming. They may currently be in Mereen, but I think they will be coming to Westeros soon.

[jarl the climber]

But would it be so hard to force Arianne to write Sansa like letter?

They could, but remember if she says war then it is peace. Dragon is the code word for war. Not sure how this plays out. But all she has to do is tell JonC to send a one word message to her Father, "War" and then get the hell out of there. He does not want to marry her or have Aegon marry her at this point, shes a woman and highborn, a battlefeild is no place for her. She has a good excuse for leaving if she wants to and she can speak the word they want to hear.

[Jon AS]

Daemon is a man Doran trusts and so I take his judgement as a valid proxy for Doran's here, and Daemon told her it was not wise to go. She ignored him. I think that was rather rash and impatient, something the "old" Arianne would have done.

Uh, Doran trusts Daemon about as much as the Sand Snakes as he had him imprisoned too, after Oberyn's death. I think he's sure enough of his loyalty to entrust his daughter's safety to him, but I don't think he's acting as Doran's proxy here. And as Arianne's bodyguard, it would be his job to put her safety above all other concerns and thus counsel her to choose the safest path available, so there really could be absolutely no strategical thinking behind his advice.

[jarl the climber]

She did not crown Quentyn with molten gold..

No she did not, nor did she crown Visery either. There are just some similarities between Viserys in the Khalasar and Quentyns posistion at her court in Mereen. Maybe she should have seen trouble coming and nipped it the bud.

[Ser Wun Wun]

Uh, Doran trusts Daemon about as much as the Sand Snakes as he had him imprisoned too, after Oberyn's death. I think he's sure enough of his loyalty to entrust his daughter's safety to him, but I don't think he's acting as Doran's proxy here. And as Arianne's bodyguard, it would be his job to put her safety above all other concerns and thus counsel her to choose the safest path available, so there really could be absolutely no strategical thinking behind his advice.

So you think Doran would want her to go? That he would approve of Arianne's decision here? Because that's the main issue. Is there any strategic reason why Arianne should go to SE, essentially putting herself in the power of men she does not know? Why not just meet them on neutral ground, where she is safe. Surely Doran is concerned about that as well as Daemon, so on this I would say they do speak with one voice.

[Tini]

No she did not, nor did she crown Visery either. There are just some similarities between Viserys in the Khalasar and Quentyns posistion at her court in Mereen. Maybe she should have seen trouble coming and nipped it the bud.

Her court did not crown him, or kill him, either. Quentyn crowned himself, voluntarily.

That was something she could not foresee. And since he chose to act after she had been abducted by Drogon, there was nothing Dany could do.

[Thlayli]

Lord have mercy. It's a list of names and places with some exposition thrown in.

Anne Groell, call your office.

[Tini]

Uh, Doran trusts Daemon about as much as the Sand Snakes as he had him imprisoned too, after Oberyn's death. I think he's sure enough of his loyalty to entrust his daughter's safety to him, but I don't think he's acting as Doran's proxy here. And as Arianne's bodyguard, it would be his job to put her safety above all other concerns and thus counsel her to choose the safest path available, so there really could be absolutely no strategical thinking behind his advice.

That doesn't show lack of trust. It shows knowledge of Daemon's character. Daemon protested against the Sand Snakes' imprisonment. He might have done more, out of loyalty, to Arianne and the Snakes. Doran was teaching Arianne a lesson, and Daemon became part of it. Doran trusts him with Quentyn's secret and Arianne's life. But Daemon is not Doran's proxy. That would be Areo Hotah. I think he hopes that Daemon will become for Arianne what Areo Hotah is for him.

I am not sure that Doran would object to Arianne's decision. He sent Daemon along to protect her, and give her advice, not to make decisions for her. Arianne is going to be Princess of Dorne, after all, not Daemon. Until now, Doran has made all big decisions for Arianne. It did not turn out as desired. Arianne is not Doran, she must find her own way. I think Doran understands this now.

Arianne travelling to meet Aegon may look brash, but I think it will be read as a sign of confidence. A sign of confidence in herself. A sign of confidence in Dorne. It shows Aegon and Connington that Dorne is not scared of them, not even in their recently acquired stronghold. They must prove their worth to Dorne, not Dorne to them. If Aegon and Connington know anything of Doran and his style, Arianne will certainly surprise them.